Are The Twins The Unluckiest Team In Baseball?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yes, because Mauer and Nolasco are both key pieces of the rebuild. They are both under contract for 3-4 more years at a combined $160M. And both are complete messes at age 31. I don't know what to attribute either situation to other than bad luck. You can criticize the contracts (I guess) but that seems like a lot of hindsight judgment.

 

 

Just read the full SweetSpot post.

 

I think it's a bit of a stretch to lump in Trevor May missing 3 weeks (which got extended a few days more due to a rainout) and Meyer missing 2 months last summer (but avoiding surgery) as "major setbacks".  And those are basically our only pitching prospect health issues since Gibson's surgery in 2011 (Kohl Stewart pending) -- I'd consider that to be pretty good fortune.  We just haven't had many pitching prospects, or at least not many near-MLB ones.

 

At the MLB pitching level, Nolasco has been the only guy markedly below prior performance levels, which definitely sucks, but it's also magnified since he is the only recipient of a notable FA salary on the staff -- their other FA starters have all had health/performance similar to previous levels and commensurate with their modest salaries.

 

And again, on the offense, Buxton and Sano definitely hurt, but they are both still tentatively on track to debut in MLB not long after their 22nd birthdays.  For now, their "major setbacks" seem more like corrections than anything too unusual.  Pinto, Dozier, Escobar, Plouffe, Hicks, Arcia, Parmelee, Santana have all been pretty healthy, and Hicks seems like the only dramatic underperformer in that group (although I would question whether underperformance should be attributed to luck).

 

I will be the first to say the Twins have been concussion unlucky.  Outside of that, I don't think they've been particularly unlucky, though.

[Kwak]

The Hicks and Pelfrey "problems".

Hicks

I was a bit surprised when he was drafted, given that Revere was drafted the year before.  I smiled when I read the "5 tools" description, but I stayed hopeful.  When I read that Hicks was "assigned to EST" for '09 I was "Oh, Oh.  Something stinks".  Years past. 2013 promotion--"YAH".  2013 results "UGH".  But to conclude that he was "promoted too fast"?  NO! He was 24.  Hicks didn't fail because he hadn't spent more years in the minors--he failed because wasn't good enough.  Some selections just fail--Hicks is just another one of them.  But it's not bad luck.

 

Pelfrey

I contend that this injury is a "blessing in disguise".  He wasn't very good last year and re-signing him wasn't bad luck--it was poor judgement.  By not pitching a useless Pelfrey the Twins provided opportunities for others to pitch and potentially prove themselves as a future fixture in the rotation--a description that doesn't apply to Pelfrey.

[JB_Iowa]

If this is about "bad luck", the Twins need to hire some Voodoo priestess to come in and remove the curse of the Black Spruce.

 

Obviously planting junipers wasn't enough.

[drjim]

 

I would suggest that maybe the problem is reversed.  You're so frustrated you're starting not to care so you try to blame luck so that it can give you hope of better luck to come.  You seem to want to extend the bad luck back half a decade so it's unclear where exactly this starts and stops.  

 

I think everyone can agree to the crappy luck with our top prospects.  It has set us back.  But none of these guys (other than MAYBE Sano) would even be up right now doing anything.  The bad luck really affects next year, the incompetence this year is more due to mismanagement and organizational issues.  

 

In fact, over this awful four season stretch the Twins have been one of the LEAST injury-bitten teams in baseball.  Sorry, just don't see the bad luck past those three guys this year, certainly not enough to call them the "unluckiest".

 

 

How soon you forget 2011. Beyond that I would say they are about average myself, but that is splitting hairs. Certainly not unlucky.

[TheLeviathan]

How soon you forget 2011. Beyond that I would say they are about average myself, but that is splitting hairs. Certainly not unlucky.

 

Well I did say these four years.  2011 was bad, but 2012 and 2013 were wonderfully healthy.  2014 has been as well.

 

2011 was certainly an unlucky trainwreck, but doesn't three years of relative good luck make up for that overall?

[Jerr]

There is luck and there is luck you make.

 

If Mauer were catching Suzuki would not be around and Colabello/Parmelee would be manning first base.  I think that this is a draw here.

 

Let assume an MVP season for Mauer and a Cy Young season for Nolasco (the other extreme of "luck".) Do you think that this team would have been a contender for the AL Central?  For the AL Title?  For the WS Title?

 

Remember the choices of Barlett and Kubel to start the season and the decision to have only one single Centerfielder on the 40 man roster.

 

Nothing to do with luck...

This and Twins made their own luck by not having the players. I'm still mad at the management for bringing in those used to be good Twins players (Bartlett and Kubel).

Of more concern in the article is the fans not being angry and just not caring. I am one of them. After the last three years of the same old same old, I find myself not even checking on their games. Stunning, when I think i have been a fan since they arrived.

Should be some good ticket bargains next year, but I doubt if I will even bother

[dgwills]

This year was all about seeing the prospects start to play. Once I found out about Sano's injury I lost all hope for the year. Looking back on it, I should of been counting my blessings. Every major prospect has been injured or underperformed.  Trevor May did do better than I expected until he got injured. I guess the lost year gives the pitching a chance to catch up with the position players. Although it might be the reverse situation once we can actually contend. Really my hope was that guys would start to figure it out in the majors this year and get close to contending next year. We can push that back a year. Hopefully we don't turn into the Royals.  I have to give Ryan some credit in loading the farm system. Just got unlucky. Hard for me to give Gardy any credit for anything though. I am a little tired about the complaining about Kubel and Bartlett. They were place holders for Sano, Buxton, and Rosario. It just didn't work out.

[drivlikejehu]

The Twins have made bad decisions over and over and over again. So the fact that they are losing season after season is not "bad luck," it is exactly what we should expect to happen.

 

There are organizations out there that know what they are doing. St. Louis doesn't win because of luck. They let someone else have Pujols as an older, ordinary player, while the Twins pay Mauer based on the player he used to be. Oakland isn't good because of any one move or strategy... Beane is just relentless in making every last incremental improvement he possibly can.

 

The Twins make too many mistakes to succeed, large and small. It's a simple, empirical reality. Baseball is too competitive to sweep all that under the rug and pretend like something else is afoot. Draft better, trade better, sign better contracts, and the team gets better. Don't, and it doesn't. The Twins aren't.

[whydidnt]

The Twins have been pretty unlucky when it comes to prospects in the last few years. This is the problem I have with putting all your eggs in the build from within basket, as they have elected to do. Prospects are unreliable, and even the most highly rated frequently don't pan out. They have generally refused to bring in legitimate major league free agents, until this year, and even then it was only to replace salary that was coming off the books. Much of what we attribute to bad luck at the major league level really is bad planning. And that includes planning on counting entirely on home grown talent.

[Kwak]

The Twins have been pretty unlucky when it comes to prospects in the last few years. This is the problem I have with putting all your eggs in the build from within basket, as they have elected to do. Prospects are unreliable, and even the most highly rated frequently don't pan out. They have generally refused to bring in legitimate major league free agents, until this year, and even then it was only to replace salary that was coming off the books. Much of what we attribute to bad luck at the major league level really is bad planning. And that includes planning on counting entirely on home grown talent.

There have four signings of big impact players recently:  Tanaka (NYY), Abreu (CWS), Puig (LAD), and Cespedes (OAK).  Perhaps these guys were "steered" to certain teams  (Tanaka, Puig).  But I don't think Cespedes and Abreu were "directed".  It is clear the Twins need hitting:  power, average, and timeliness.  Especially someone who is a true "cleanup" hitter.  They got one good year out of Willingham.  But, they stopped. 

Morales?  I believe he was intended to be a one-year rental all along.  He was to put some lipstick on this pig and then be traded to receive a generous return.  Well, everything above a happened except the "generous" part. I still think they are "on a budget"/"holding pattern" until the FO is ready to promote "the pipeline" to the Twins.  I don't believe that will be next season either.

[Craig Arko]

I busted a mirror and got seven years bad luck, but my lawyer thinks he can get me five. - Steven Wright

 

Clearly the Twins need better lawyers than Meshbesher and Spence. Maybe Jack McCoy.

[DocBauer]

Go ahead and give me flak, but I see the premise of Nick's original point, and agree with it.

 

With the caveat that I no longer follow ALL TEAMS as I once did, so I can't speak to each team's individual luck status, good or bad.

 

And by no means does some really bad/tough luck excuse bad personnel decisions. But echoing Nick, and SD, I think you have to examine not only this season, but even the past couple. 2011 was just wiped out due to injury after injury after a 95 win division championship season. Ok, there were some bad decisions, or misguided decisions, in 2012 and 2013. But is there a team in all of baseball who's two best players had career altering/threatening concussions back to back? I'm not saying the Twins are transformed in 2013 or 2014 to winning teams with playoff aspirations, but how much better does the team look with a stud C in Mauer and a stud 1B in Morneau in the lineup?

 

I don't know that Sano and Buxton are up NOW, but they might be. At worse, they're getting their feet wet in '14 getting ready for '15 with Mauer and Morneau and Dozier and Arcia, even a better Plouffe and Escobar and possibly Santana. Nolasco is no ace, but a really nice piece of the puzzle, along with Meyer, who has been slowed, and May, who might have been up already if not for his calf injury.

 

The two cornerstone position players of the organization suffer career interrupting/altering injuries and then that same team's top two prospects, each amongst the top 3-5 in all of baseball lose all or most of a season at the same time? Yes...sorry...but I think the Twins have had some really tough luck the past few seasons.

 

Once again, there have been some decisions/moves made and not made that are poor, along with a few good moves/decisions. But what a difference a healthy, and on development track, the Twins roster might look like without these issues!

[The Wise One]

What makes the Twins unlucky is the draft.  Since the turn of the century it has been Kubel and Dozier as the only two later round draft picks that have produced multiple seasons for the Twins. Drafted pitchers, they had a run with Garza Baker, Slowey and Blackburn. Maybe Gibson will stick, but one in a long period of time for starting pitchers is not good. All of the supplemental picks, so far Perkins is the only one who made it.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I agree with a lot that spycake said.

 

I think Nolasco was overhyped - he was a tremendously important signing that I applauded - but he was never an ace.  Definitely not in reasonable expectations for coming to the AL.  I'm not sure what's going on with his arm, but people always hoped for a bit too much from him.

 

The bullpen has somehow managed to match last year's success.  That could be counted as luck quite frankly.

 

And the offense?  Well some of us were shouting from the rooftops how bad this group was and how thin.  Not much about luck there.  Hell, they're in the bottom third of the league in OPS and in the top half in runs scored.  I'd call their offense considerably lucky not to have been worse this year.

expectations of Nolasco were confusion of contract comparing to skills. Nolasco got paid going rate for an average starter, and he pitched marginally poorer than average before he came up lame. There is still time for Nolasco to prove his worth as an average #3 starter.

 

Buxton/Sano = unlucky roll of the dice.

 

Everything else this year points to how poor and shallow this team is.

[whydidnt]

What makes the Twins unlucky is the draft.  Since the turn of the century it has been Kubel and Dozier as the only two later round draft picks that have produced multiple seasons for the Twins. Drafted pitchers, they had a run with Garza Baker, Slowey and Blackburn. Maybe Gibson will stick, but one in a long period of time for starting pitchers is not good. All of the supplemental picks, so far Perkins is the only one who made it.

Agree, which is why it's so frustrating that the Twins were/are so protective of their 2nd round pick when it comes to signing Free Agents. Their track record outside of the top of the first round isn't very good. In reality, that's probably true for a lot of teams. Again, is this luck or just bad strategy? These last couple of years when they've had a protected 1st round pick and seemingly available funds would have been the perfect time to splurge on a Type A FA.

 

As I think about this more, the serious concussions to Morneau and Mauer are really bad luck, and something teams can't plan for. However, other teams have had to deal with major injuries to major stars as well, so not sure that puts us in worst luck terriorty.

[The Wise One]

Since 2010 I do believe that the Twins are below average in days lost on the dl. There is not anything that I can find regarding the top prospects, though. Some of the internet site geniuses out there should be able to come up with that.

[Kwak]

Oh my, the spin about 2011.  The crazy fact was even after the poor start, the tean rallied before the AS break. Combined with a Detroit slump, they still had a chance because of a 12 game homestand right aftr the break.  They went 6-6 which ended any realistic chance at a playoff spot.  The lineup was changed to play the minor leaguers and the bench reserves tht caused the team to collapse.  In short, they weren't terrible, even without Morneau and Mauer, they just weren't a playoff team.  But, they quit. 

 

The records of the team after he 2012 and 2013 ASB were very close--a losing team, but not a terrible team.  But in came the "callups"--and then, disaster.  This wasn't bad luck and injuries--it was  team that quit.  The "callups" were basically useless at the MLB level.  That wasn't bad luck.   The cupboard was bare and there was a lack of professionalism displayed after it became apparent that there wouldn't be any post-season play for the Twins.  That's not bad luck.  

 

At the start of '12. '13, and this season as well there were comments made that implied that the problems were "fixed" and all that was needed for a successful season was "no injuries and for Gardy to work his normal magic".  The implication was that the eam was victimized by circumstances beyond its control and the need to patch some holes.  I never conluded that the FO believed that a complete rebuild was needed for the team.  Things won't get fixed until the real problems are recognized and the excuses stop.  Refer to the comments made not long ago by the Rangers.  They admitted failures and will start addressing them.  That need to happen with the Twins.

[The Wise One]

Agree, which is why it's so frustrating that the Twins were/are so protective of their 2nd round pick when it comes to signing Free Agents. Their track record outside of the top of the first round isn't very good. In reality, that's probably true for a lot of teams. Again, is this luck or just bad strategy? These last couple of years when they've had a protected 1st round pick and seemingly available funds would have been the perfect time to splurge on a Type A FA.

 

As I think about this more, the serious concussions to Morneau and Mauer are really bad luck, and something teams can't plan for. However, other teams have had to deal with major injuries to major stars as well, so not sure that puts us in worst luck terriorty.

Burdi might be very good. I think the team will be happy they kept the pick. Eades I am not so sure about. The question becomes what sort of players gravitate towards non winning teams. Players with a demand problem. Look at how basketball free agency goes. If there is winning, there are players willing to take a cut. If the team loses, there are players that want out. Not all, but enough to shrink the pool significantly. I use basketball as an example because they are a lot more open about their negotiations.

[The Wise One]

Oh my, the spin about 2011.  The crazy fact was even after the poor start, the tean rallied before the AS break. Combined with a Detroit slump, they still had a chance because of a 12 game homestand right aftr the break.  They went 6-6 which ended any realistic chance at a playoff spot.  The lineup was changed to play the minor leaguers and the bench reserves tht caused the team to collapse.  In short, they weren't terrible, even without Morneau and Mauer, they just weren't a playoff team.  But, they quit. 

 

The records of the team after he 2012 and 2013 ASB were very close--a losing team, but not a terrible team.  But in came the "callups"--and then, disaster.  This wasn't bad luck and injuries--it was  team that quit.  The "callups" were basically useless at the MLB level.  That wasn't bad luck.   The cupboard was bare and there was a lack of professionalism displayed after it became apparent that there wouldn't be any post-season play for the Twins.  That's not bad luck.  

 

At the start of '12. '13, and this season as well there were comments made that implied that the problems were "fixed" and all that was needed for a successful season was "no injuries and for Gardy to work his normal magic".  The implication was that the eam was victimized by circumstances beyond its control and the need to patch some holes.  I never conluded that the FO believed that a complete rebuild was needed for the team.  Things won't get fixed until the real problems are recognized and the excuses stop.  Refer to the comments made not long ago by the Rangers.  They admitted failures and will start addressing them.  That need to happen with the Twins.

Trading Span and Revere for the future I think spoke volumes about the FO thinking they needed a rebuild. They did not have to say it. They thought they could be competative, but that is different than what happened and winning divisions.

[ericchri]

 

 But none of these guys (other than MAYBE Sano) would even be up right now doing anything. 

 

 

I honestly think it's very possible Buxton would be up right now if not for his injury, with the crazy adventures we've had filling the CF spot this year.  If he'd hit well to start at AA this year I suspect they'd have just thrown up their hands with the various failings and injuries to the other CF this year and just given Buxton a chance to show he belongs in the majors.

 

That being said, I think there's a good case to be made for both bad luck and bad decision-making leading to many of the problems this year.  I don't even remotely follow any other team to even guess whether things are going good or bad for them, let alone whether that might be due to luck (of either variety).  Thus I couldn't even begin to guess whether the Twins would be the unluckiest team in the league.  I do think there is a definite element of being unlucky for the Twins' travails, however.  Failure to admit to a rebuild in the past couple years when it was obvious the team was horrible is also a big contributor.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I honestly think it's very possible Buxton would be up right now if not for his injury, with the crazy adventures we've had filling the CF spot this year.

 

I am trying to imagine the Twins promoting 20.5 year old Byron Buxton from AA while simultaneously holding Meyer and May promotions back to virtually their 25th birthdays...

[chuchadoro]

I am trying to imagine the Twins promoting 20.5 year old Byron Buxton from AA while simultaneously holding Meyer and May promotions back to virtually their 25th birthdays...

All your 30 year old arbitration-eligible pitchers are belong to us!

[ericchri]

I am trying to imagine the Twins promoting 20.5 year old Byron Buxton from AA while simultaneously holding Meyer and May promotions back to virtually their 25th birthdays...

They seem to have different parameters for pitchers and position players, and I have no explanation for that.  Along with "decent" AAA starters for fill-in starts vs. minor league shortstops to fill in at CF.  I've stated elsewhere that they both have to get innings in the majors this year, so I don't understand the Meyer/May thing any more than anyone else, just observing that I don't find it far-fetched to believe Buxton might have managed to get to the majors at this point if not for the injury.

[Nick Nelson]

There seems to be a sentiment that I'm trying to absolve the front office and coaching staff of blame. I'm not. They've made bad decisions, they've mishandled situations, and I've hammered them plenty.

 

When things went south, the Twins decided to spend lightly and make little effort at fielding respectable rosters in the interim while waiting for their next wave of prospects. Many people (including myself) did not like this approach. But at the end of the day, a few good moves and a little more free agent spending weren't going to turn 95-loss teams into contenders. This thing was rotten from the core and Ryan has been working to rebuild the foundation, focusing on an internal infusion that was always going to be the lifeblood of a revival.

 

Although they were worse than they needed to be over the last three years, all that really led to was high draft picks (Buxton, Stewart, Gordon), and aside from putting those picks to good use, they made smart moves that put them in position to start a turnaround this year. People don't seem to want to acknowledge it, but they WERE in position. They signed major free agents. They had several top prospects ready to open in Double-A and perhaps make an impact during the season, including Meyer and May who Ryan acquired as part of this rebuilding strategy (I have seen no one giving him any credit for this).

 

And now they're basically stuck in limbo, with their timeline being pushed back indefinitely by these troubling developments with Mauer, Nolasco, Buxton, Sano, Rosario and to a lesser extent May & Meyer (I really believe that one or both would be up by now if not for their ill-timed injuries).

 

I haven't seen a compelling argument that any of these things are the result of gross mismanagement. It's bad luck. If even a few of these unfortunate events hadn't stuck, I think we'd be talking about this club a lot differently than we are now. That's really what I'm driving at.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Agreed 100%, Nick.

 

Bad luck and mismanagement can coexist. No one is arguing that the Twins have only made good decisions. They haven't.

 

But 2014 has turned into a lost season both from an MLB wins standpoint and a development standpoint of their top prospects in the upper minors. Some of that was because of mismanagement (but mostly, we're quibbling over incredibly minor infractions like "25th man on the roster") but most of it was due to bad luck (Nolasco, Mauer, Buxton, Sano, Meyer, May).

 

And yes, even Meyer and May have been hampered by bad luck during this stretch. I think May is on the roster if not for that untimely (albeit minor) injury. Meyer is almost certainly on the roster if he didn't lose two months last season.

 

A bad combination all around. No one is defending the front office by saying that the Twins have been unlucky.

[Mike Sixel]

So, if every prospect worked out, and every FA signing worked out, they'd be better? Sure, I agree with that, but that would be incredible luck, right? If everything broke your way?

 

I am arguing that they left no room for error, and failure, and they are paying the price for that. That and they refuse to promote May or Meyer for some reason, and I don't buy the injury stuff. May could have been up here before being hurt. Meyer could be up here right now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So, if every prospect worked out, and every FA signing worked out, they'd be better? Sure, I agree with that, but that would be incredible luck, right? If everything broke your way?

 

This is a bit of a strawman, Mike. No one is saying every prospect was going to work out but going into this season, here were the five best prospects slated to be in the upper minors (and therefore, potential for promotion this season):

 

Byron Buxton - expected to start in AA, ended up losing 2/3 of a season

Miguel Sano - potentially an Opening Day starter, lost for season

Trevor May - Lost 2-3 weeks right as many of us expected a promotion

Eddie Rosario - Lost 50 games to a drug suspension

Alex Meyer - I believe he should be up but he did lose two months last season, which surely hindered his progress this season

 

That's some pretty awful luck. You can't promote your best prospects if they're injured or suspended and it's impossible to start the MLB rebuild when you have 4-5 top 100 prospects with setbacks.

 

4-5 top 100 prospects is more than most MLB teams have in their entire system. That's just what the Twins expected to have in the upper minors to start the season.

[Nick Nelson]

If even a few of these unfortunate events hadn't struck, I think we'd be talking about this club a lot differently than we are now.

 

 

So, if every prospect worked out, and every FA signing worked out, they'd be better? Sure, I agree with that, but that would be incredible luck, right? If everything broke your way?

 

I mean, are we trying to have an honest discussion here, or not?

[Mike Sixel]

I would argue that May and Meyer could be up right now. They have chosen not to do that. I do not think that is bad luck they have not been up yet, it is their choice. Pelfrey was predictably bad. Again, imo, not luck.

 

That leaves the big three prospects. That part has been unlucky. It has delayed their call up by however long they decide to delay the inevitable next year. If they were indeed willing to call up Sano this year, then service time should not be an issue next year, and when he comes up will be up to them. Buxton will be up next year, which was the most likely timeline anyway.

 

So, sure, they have had bad luck. But mostly, they have just been bad.

[jharaldson]

 

Trevor May - Lost 2-3 weeks right as many of us expected a promotion

Alex Meyer - I believe he should be up but he did lose two months last season, which surely hindered his progress this season

 

I think the Alex Meyer issue comes from a front office decision and not bad luck.  Prior to the trade fangraphs wrote a big article on Meyer stating:

 

 

 

It’s no secret taller pitchers have a more difficult time repeating mechanics and Meyer is no exception. ... On the flip side, Meyer’s mechanics were inconsistent at best, as he had a tendency to both throw across his body

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/washington-nationals-pitching-prospect-alex-meyer-scouting-report-video/

 

We traded for a guy with mechanical issues and call it bad luck when the mechanical issues predictably turn into an injury.  

 

On Trevor May I think we had good luck this year with him because until now I assumed he was not going to be a factor after 2 mediocre/bad AA seasons.  The luck of him looking like he has upside far outweighs the bad luck of a minor 3 week injury.