Article: Twins should go all in on Greinke

[SirLoin]

While it would certainly make things interesting to go after a true ace like Grienke, I don't think it makes a lot of sense considering the state the Twins are in right now. As it stands, the Twins have basically no rotation whatsoever. Diamond has been a nice story, but he still has a lot to prove. Walters is nothing more than a stopgap, and any legitimate pitching prospects we have are facing or are currently in the process of rehabbing injuries. The fact is the Twins need to build a rotation from the ground up next season, and it looks like they might have the money to do just that. They need a rotation that can produce quality starts on a consistent basis so the offense isn't always behind the proverbial 8-ball game in and game out. That way, they ought to be able to win some of those ballgames next year that they are losing this year, thus building themselves into a contender that an ace might find attractive. I'd say the short list of free agent pitchers ought to include, in no particular order:

 

Joe Blanton

Joe Saunders

Brandon McCarthy

Paul Maholm (If his $6.5M club option isn't picked up)

Erik Bedard

Shaun Marcum (If they want to go high end)

Kevin Millwood (Token old guy for the back of the rotation)

 

Based on this list, an overhauled Twins rotation should look like this going into next season:

 

Erik Bedard/Shaun Marcum

Joe Blanton/Joe Saunders/Brandon McCarthy

Kevin Millwood

Scott Diamond

PJ Walters/Jeff Manship/Cole DeVries (Basically a place holder until June for Kyle Gibson)

[one_eyed_jack]

I'm in favor of spending money to improve, but agree with those who say there are too many holes to fill for it to make sense to go all in on one guy.

 

Especially when going all in on that guy will mean locking him in for a lot of money for a lot of years.

 

After all of the recent complaining about how Mauer's contract supposedly hamstrings the team, it's a bit odd to see advocacy for signing up for another long-term huge money deal.

 

The Twins are a long way off from being a powerhouse, but if they were able to upgrade their pitching from horrendous to mediocre and add another decent bat to the lineup, that would be enough for them to compete for the division.

[bdhenders]

While it would certainly make things interesting to go after a true ace like Grienke, I don't think it makes a lot of sense considering the state the Twins are in right now. As it stands, the Twins have basically no rotation whatsoever. Diamond has been a nice story, but he still has a lot to prove. Walters is nothing more than a stopgap, and any legitimate pitching prospects we have are facing or are currently in the process of rehabbing injuries. The fact is the Twins need to build a rotation from the ground up next season, and it looks like they might have the money to do just that. They need a rotation that can produce quality starts on a consistent basis so the offense isn't always behind the proverbial 8-ball game in and game out. That way, they ought to be able to win some of those ballgames next year that they are losing this year, thus building themselves into a contender that an ace might find attractive. I'd say the short list of free agent pitchers ought to include, in no particular order:

 

Joe Blanton

Joe Saunders

Brandon McCarthy

Paul Maholm (If his $6.5M club option isn't picked up)

Erik Bedard

Shaun Marcum (If they want to go high end)

Kevin Millwood (Token old guy for the back of the rotation)

 

Based on this list, an overhauled Twins rotation should look like this going into next season:

 

Erik Bedard/Shaun Marcum

Joe Blanton/Joe Saunders/Brandon McCarthy

Kevin Millwood

Scott Diamond

PJ Walters/Jeff Manship/Cole DeVries (Basically a place holder until June for Kyle Gibson)

Why is everyone penciling Diamond into next years rotation? He's had 3 good games, but I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch? 3 games is a very small sample size. I hope he keeps it going, since he's the only one giving the Twins a decent chance of winning right now, but I wouldn't count on him being in the rotation next year. He's a late 20's journeyman that hasn't stuck in the majors in his career yet.

 

If you think Greinke can give you 5 good years, it might make sense to sign him, but it's a huge risk and I don't think the Twins will do it. We need to get some good pitching prospects for Denard Span (2 number 2/3 starters) since he's the only tradeable commodity right now. If you want to sign starting pitching, it will cost you, but I do agree with the sentiment that they've got a bigger payroll to work with now, so it might make some sense. The SP has been horrible, and they're going to have to sign someone eventually. It probably won't be until they show that they have a chance at being competitive, though.

 

Just keep winning 4 out of every 5 games and maybe it could happen;-)

[SirLoin]

Why is everyone penciling Diamond into next years rotation?

 

We need to get some good pitching prospects for Denard Span (2 number 2/3 starters) since he's the only tradeable commodity right now.

As far as Diamond goes, who else can we pencil in from an internal standpoint? He could also potentially be that 5th starter holding Gibson's spot until he's ready. Especially if they are able to trade Span for a prospect who is major-league ready. Which is not a bad way to go either.

[twinstalker]

The Twins and I (because I matter) are scared to sign pitchers long-term. I think Baker/Blackburn is the last straw for that notion. Secondly, I think the Twins are a long way (and a long pitching way) from seriously competing.

 

That being said, if the Twins were to spend on a pitcher who would be around if the Twins suddenly started making good personnel decisions and began winning, I think they could do a LOT worse than Greinke.

[CDog]

Why is everyone penciling Diamond into next years rotation? He's a late 20's journeyman that hasn't stuck in the majors in his career yet.

 

25 is late 20's?

[twinzgrl]

I keep hearing the Nationals want Span. Do they have a pitcher we could get from them that would be a #2 type guy?

[snepp]

He's a late 20's journeyman that hasn't stuck in the majors in his career yet.

That's a grossly inaccurate representation. I'd love to see you defend it though, should make for quality theatre.

[Shane Wahl]

I keep hearing the Nationals want Span. Do they have a pitcher we could get from them that would be a #2 type guy?

I would much rather keep Span and spend some money on 1-2 free agent starters in the offseason than trade their leadoff player for a pitching prospect.

[darin617]

I would argue that Ryan Dempster and Randy Wolf are the two most likely for the Twins to sign, and neither will garner more than 3 years (likely 2). They could probably get both for about $23 million a year for two years.

I would like to see Tim Hudson if Atlanta doesn't pick up his option for next year. Sad thing is the Twins would have more interest in a former teammate of Hudson's... That would Barry Zito. I can already see Terry Ryan throwing a multi-year deal at him instead.

[darin617]

So, the argument from some is to not spend serious money next year. How many years of Mauer's prime are you willing to burn, not being competitive?

So when do Mauer's prime years start?

[Jack Torse]

While they're at it they should make a push for Hamilton too. I love the idea and I think he has great stuff but nothing in the Twins DNA would suggest they will even pay 5 million for a free agent pitcher this off season. This team wouldn't even get Cliff Lee for a couple prospects when they had a team that was very good in 2010. Afterall, where would they be without Aaron Hicks? This orginazation makes money 1st, and if they have a good team that just a bonus. You've been hoodwinked if you believe otherwise.

[Guest USAFChief]

I'm in favor of spending money to improve, but agree with those who say there are too many holes to fill for it to make sense to go all in on one guy.

 

Especially when going all in on that guy will mean locking him in for a lot of money for a lot of years.

 

After all of the recent complaining about how Mauer's contract supposedly hamstrings the team, it's a bit odd to see advocacy for signing up for another long-term huge money deal.

 

The Twins are a long way off from being a powerhouse, but if they were able to upgrade their pitching from horrendous to mediocre and add another decent bat to the lineup, that would be enough for them to compete for the division.

1. I guess I don't agree that signing Grienke represents "going all in." The Twins can spend more money than they're currently spending, and Grienke costs nothing but money. He doesn't cost you prospects going away for a half season rent-a-player, nor stripping of the farm to acquire MLB players in the offseason.

 

2. It might not work out, but spending money is one way to acquire talent. It can't be the only way, but shying away from difference makers who cost nothing but money isn't good strategy either.

 

3. You don't upgrade the horrendous pitching by adding more horrendous, but cheap, pitchers.

 

4. Not exactly sure what "compete for the division" means, but if the goal is to have an outside chance of finishing closer to first than last in the ALC, then yeah, there's no need to sign front line pitchers. If the goals are higher, you need players capable of achieveing that.

 

I'm not sure Grienke is really what might be called an "ace," but he's a front line pitcher, and the Twins are going to need front line pitching at some point no matter what happens with any other part of the team.

[one_eyed_jack]

1. I guess I don't agree that signing Grienke represents "going all in." The Twins can spend more money than they're currently spending, and Grienke costs nothing but money. He doesn't cost you prospects going away for a half season rent-a-player, nor stripping of the farm to acquire MLB players in the offseason.

 

2. It might not work out, but spending money is one way to acquire talent. It can't be the only way, but shying away from difference makers who cost nothing but money isn't good strategy either.

 

3. You don't upgrade the horrendous pitching by adding more horrendous, but cheap, pitchers.

 

4. Not exactly sure what "compete for the division" means, but if the goal is to have an outside chance of finishing closer to first than last in the ALC, then yeah, there's no need to sign front line pitchers. If the goals are higher, you need players capable of achieveing that.

 

I'm not sure Grienke is really what might be called an "ace," but he's a front line pitcher, and the Twins are going to need front line pitching at some point no matter what happens with any other part of the team.

 

1) The phrase "go all in" was the article author's not mine. And I took it to mean that the Twins spend whatever it takes to get him. I'm not opposed to having Greinke on the Twins, but I am opposed to spending what it will take to get him on one guy.

 

2) I said I'm in favor of spending money, just not all in 1 place.

 

3) Who said anything about signing horrendous pitchers? It's not like all pitchers who aren't Greinke are just other versions of Marquis. There's some middle ground there.

 

4) By compete for the division, I mean be able to hang in the race most of the year with a reasonable chance to win it. If the Twins had gotten mediocre as opposed to horrendous starting pitching and a bit more offense this year they'd be right there. I figure we'd have 6 or 7 more wins had we gotten halfway decent starting pitching and a couple of more clutch hits. That would have put us right in the mix in what is a very weak division. No, it wouldn't make us a legit World Series contender, but we'd at least be playing meaningful baseball in August, possibly later. And that would make it a more attractive destination for free agent like Greinke.

[jorgenswest]

Why would any significant free agent sign with the Twins? I can't see any reason why a player would sign with a team that has so many needs and so little hope for 2013. They have to rebuild the hard way.

 

The only way the Twins will sign anyone is to overpay so significantly that it couldn't be anything but a bad contract in the long run.

 

We see comments like this all the time.

 

Recently... Why didn't the Twins take the money they spent on Capps, Marquis and Zumaya and spend it on Edwin Jackson (who signed an 11 million dollar contract with Washington)?

 

How can anyone assume that was ever a choice? Given the two options, Jackson would choose Washington every time. Why choose a Twins team coming off a horrible season and a historically bad infield defense? Jackson not only needed to consider this year, but contracts in the future. They would have had to pay much more than Washington to get him.

 

Signing significant free agents will not be an option for bottom feeders like the Twins. They have to dig their way out with smart player development.

[CDog]

This team wouldn't even get Cliff Lee for a couple prospects when they had a team that was very good in 2010. Afterall, where would they be without Aaron Hicks? This orginazation makes money 1st, and if they have a good team that just a bonus. You've been hoodwinked if you believe otherwise.

Like being hoodwinked by rumors and assuming that the Twins could have had Cliff Lee for a couple of prospects? Or being hoodwinked by one's own twisted logic that winning and profit are unrelated?

[CDog]

Recently... Why didn't the Twins take the money they spent on Capps, Marquis and Zumaya and spend it on Edwin Jackson (who signed an 11 million dollar contract with Washington)?

 

Umm...cuz of addition and the fact that either Edwin Jackson, his agent, or both are capable of it?

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I've always thought Paul Maholm would be a perfect fit for the Twins and I would be a little surprised if his option was picked up. His 5.5 K/9 and 1.416 career WHIP are really unattractive though.

[bdhenders]

That's a grossly inaccurate representation. I'd love to see you defend it though, should make for quality theatre.

Looking at fangraphs for Scott Diamond, I see that you are correct. I was just going off memory and was underestimating Diamond. I thought he was older. This does make me feel a little better about him (and the Twins managment for trading Billy Bullock to keep him...which I didn't like).

 

The point still goes that the best way to get starting pitching without costing you an arm and a leg is to trade Span for AA arms that might become 2/3 starters. I don't think you can get an ace for him, but obviously that would be nice, too. Do you guys have any thoughts on who they could get for Span?

[CDog]

Do you guys have any thoughts on who they could get for Span?

There is/are (more than?) one thread devoted entirely to this topic. Not too far back if you go to the Forum category and then Twins Talk, you should be able to find lots o' opinions on that.

[jorgenswest]

Most recent comp is the trade of Michael Bourn last year. The Braves did not have to trade any of their pitching prospects to get him. They sent Jordan Shafer, Brett Oberholtzer, Paul Clemens and Juan Abreau to Houston.

 

Span currently ranks 12th in WAR among centerfielders and could help some teams. However, I don't know if they should expect any more than the Astros received for Bourn who has been a better player over the last two years.

 

Look at the trades over the last few summers. I don't see many #2-3 pitching prospects changing hands. Last year they were included in trades for Ubaldo Jimenez, Hunter Pence and Carlos Beltran.

 

Fortunately the Twins are in a good position with Span. Worst case, they keep him unless someone comes in a blows them away.

[jokin]

I'm in favor of spending money to improve, but agree with those who say there are too many holes to fill for it to make sense to go all in on one guy.

 

Especially when going all in on that guy will mean locking him in for a lot of money for a lot of years.

 

After all of the recent complaining about how Mauer's contract supposedly hamstrings the team, it's a bit odd to see advocacy for signing up for another long-term huge money deal.

 

The Twins are a long way off from being a powerhouse, but if they were able to upgrade their pitching from horrendous to mediocre and add another decent bat to the lineup, that would be enough for them to compete for the division.

That sounds an awful lot like the scenario I proposed to you on another thread...

 

I think it's obvious now, even to Twins managment, that long-term contracts are not the way to go. As much as Greinke would fit into Gardenhire's perfect player profile in the locker room (Greinke has been diagnosed with SAD- Social Anxiety Disorder), it would be a foolish move to put even more money at risk on a long-term basis. My proposal for signing some combination of 1st, 2nd & 3rd tier proven starting arms for short-term deals is the way to go until the farm system/draft delivers on some combination of Waldrip/Gibson/Wimmers/(Appel or Gausman) and/or a key (#3-5) starter/pitching prospect(s) acquired by trade for Span/Willingham/Doumit/etc.

[Ultima Ratio]

If I were GM, I wouldn't go beyond 3 years on FA contracts except under unique and momentous conditions. I believe the chances of seriously courting Greinke are quite remote, and I don't think it would be money well spent. I'd rather they go after 2 #2s or 3 #3s at SP next year. We are not one ace away from competing and succeeding the playoffs.

 

Career ERA of my potential 2013 Pick-ups (all for 2 or 3 year contracts) I like to see 2 or 3 signed -- I know, it's just a wish, reasonable though I think.

 

All the following are definite FA, without a club option remaining for 2013

 

Brandon McCarthy 4.06

Joe Blanton 4.30

Jeremy Guthrie 4.24

Colby Lewis Last 2 years: 3.70, 4.42 and so far this year 3.30

Anibal Sanchez 3.61

Joe Saunders 4.13

 

Guys that would be nice but probably out of reach: Shaun Marcum and Cole Hammels