Souhan's Questions

[TheLeviathan]

Souhan asked some questions we've seen around here quite often today.

 

We've hashed many of these arguments and the piece lays most of them out very well, my question is - do you predict any of the positions possibly up for changing will see that change? Notably GM and the management staff - where do you stand on what you expect to happen next season?

 

And is Molitor the clear "next in line" manager?

[stringer bell]

I thought the column was pretty good. It didn't sugarcoat an awful run of baseball and brought out issues that even a "continuity before all else" ownership and front office must address.

[JB_Iowa]

I thought the column did a good job of crystallizing the questions that so many of us have.

 

I don't know if I want to rehash it all again. I've been posting about the stagnant management pool for at least 3 years. Never really injecting "fresh water" only taking a few minor stirs (Ryan for Bill Smith; a few minor coaching changes).

 

That's the biggest issue for me. I want to see outside thinking and talent injected in to this organization. It will be a dagger through the heart if they make Rob Antony the next GM. I also want to see Gardenhire & Anderson replaced -- and I'd really appreciate some youthful vigor (regardless of how much the players like Molitor).

 

I doubt that it will happen but I'd like to be pleasantly shocked.

[gunnarthor]

Souhan asked some questions we've seen around here quite often today.

 

We've hashed many of these arguments and the piece lays most of them out very well, my question is - do you predict any of the positions possibly up for changing will see that change? Notably GM and the management staff - where do you stand on what you expect to happen next season?

 

And is Molitor the clear "next in line" manager?

 

I think the job is Ryan's until he doesn't want it and I suspect that that means he'll keep Gardy as his manager. If Ryan does retire (and I suppose that's more possible now b/c of his cancer scare) then I think a new GM might change the manager.

 

I've always thought that Dougie Baseball will be Gardy's longterm replacement in a few years so I'll stick to that for now.

[Kwak]

Souhan's column (should have had a link included) was completely unexpected when I read it this AM. Normally, the Strib is a cheerleader for the major sports teams and their managements--but not today. In yesterday's paper there was a quote about how certain players were "lobbying" to keep this collection together and claimed that the post-ASG collaspes of the past years were caused by playing the bench and top minor leaguers. Hello!! Many of this collection is here today because of those collaspes and subsequent opportunities provided to said younger players.

[DaveW]

If the Twins were going to make a move it should have been in the last two off-seasons (which I was against anyways) at this point it would be pretty shoddy to all of a sudden get rid of Ryan/Gardy right before the next wave of studs play in 2015 (Buxton+Sano+Meyer+Rosario+May etc)

[drjim]

I actually think Ryan has been acceptable since he took back the reins. The abyss of the franchise after 2011 can't easily be ignored. I think he deserves another year (subject to how he handles the next couple of weeks).

 

I would fall into the camp that Gardy and Anderson should have been replaced two years ago. I don't think they are bad, but a decade plus is a good run.

[nicksaviking]

If the Twins were going to make a move it should have been in the last two off-seasons (which I was against anyways) at this point it would be pretty shoddy to all of a sudden get rid of Ryan/Gardy right before the next wave of studs play in 2015 (Buxton+Sano+Meyer+Rosario+May etc)

 

Well it hasn't worked out too well with the first wave of studs Hicks+Gibson+Arcia.

 

If you're a terrible team, you're always going to have high draft picks and almost always going to have exciting prospects people want to see. If Buxton+Sano+Meyer struggle, would it then be shoddy to not give them a chance to see the next crop of say, Stewart, Gordon and (insert 2015 top 5 pick)?

[Badsmerf]

If the Twins were going to make a move it should have been in the last two off-seasons (which I was against anyways) at this point it would be pretty shoddy to all of a sudden get rid of Ryan/Gardy right before the next wave of studs play in 2015 (Buxton+Sano+Meyer+Rosario+May etc)

Give me a break Dave. How long does this pair get to lose before bringing new people in? Putting aside the historically bad playoff record, this team has been terrible for 4 seasons now. You can try to suggest Ryan is building on prospects, but that doesn't mean he gets an endless leash.

[TheLeviathan]

at this point it would be pretty shoddy to all of a sudden get rid of Ryan/Gardy right before the next wave of studs play in 2015 (Buxton+Sano+Meyer+Rosario+May etc)

 

Wouldn't that be precisely the right time? Let someone with a better rapport with those players take over to lead into the next wave of Twins' success.

[gunnarthor]

Wouldn't that be precisely the right time? Let someone with a better rapport with those players take over to lead into the next wave of Twins' success.

Yeah but this just leads to the false narrative that Gardy can't relate to young guys.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah but this just leads to the false narrative that Gardy can't relate to young guys.

 

It's more about what Molitor has done well and why he's a good fit. But let's also not excuse some of Gardy's flaws (he has strenghts too) - the truth is, though, whether Gardy relates well or not I don't know - but any public problems or issues are always with young players. They always go under the bus. Hell, other than Nolasco I can't ever remember it happening before with a veteran.

 

There are negatives about what Gardy does and his handling with young players is on there.

[gunnarthor]

Give me a break Dave. How long does this pair get to lose before bringing new people in? Putting aside the historically bad playoff record, this team has been terrible for 4 seasons now. You can try to suggest Ryan is building on prospects, but that doesn't mean he gets an endless leash.

 

I think it's pretty clear that the Twins are rebuilding and I think Ryan has made a lot of good moves to that end. We haven't seen him get burned in a trade. We've seen him build up a broken farm system in relatively short time. He hasn't done anything that suggests he's no longer a competent GM. Yeah, the ML team has had some bad records but he hasn't made stupid panic moves that hurt the longterm future. It takes time to rebuild a ML team - the 2011 team was horrible and old and there wasn't much in the minor leagues to help it. There wasn't a quick fix to be made.

[ashbury]

My expectation is that Ryan chooses to relinquish the GM role due to his health concerns, and takes an advisory role going forward. I am not enthused with Rob Antony as heir apparent, but maybe he benefitted from the growing-pains in the PR area of the job this spring, otherwise I'd prefer to see a dynamic young assistant GM from another organization come in, preferably with a little more visible tilt toward the analytics POV.

[Mike Sixel]

I think it's pretty clear that the Twins are rebuilding and I think Ryan has made a lot of good moves to that end. We haven't seen him get burned in a trade. We've seen him build up a broken farm system in relatively short time. He hasn't done anything that suggests he's no longer a competent GM. Yeah, the ML team has had some bad records but he hasn't made stupid panic moves that hurt the longterm future. It takes time to rebuild a ML team - the 2011 team was horrible and old and there wasn't much in the minor leagues to help it. There wasn't a quick fix to be made.

 

Pelfrey, Nolasco disagree that he's done nothing to indicate he is good at his job.....his BIG signings in a year they promised to be competitive were KC and Pelfrey, then he doubled down on Pelfrey, oh, and signed Bartlett to be his backup CF and Kubel to be on the roster. There isn't much indication that he's doing a good job at the MLB level. The minors, yes, the majors.....remains to be seen.

[Deduno Abides]

Two thoughts.

 

First, sometimes it seems that people wishing to retain Ryan and Gardenhire have perhaps two or three key arguments. None of these are good arguments for continued employment. The arguments are the following: (1) they're not the worst in the league; (2) they've done pretty good jobs in the past; and (3) they deserve a chance when the next crop of stars reach the majors. These arguments are not that good.

 

(1) "Not the worst" is true, but does not mean the best or even near the best. Their track records are long enough to know what Ryan and Gardenhire bring to the table and how they go about their jobs, and it would take at least six hits of the lucky stick for them ever to come close to the World Series. (2) It's true that they've done a decent job in the past, but their best result has been getting crushed in the ALCS twelve years ago. After that, the Twins were a competitive team for most of the decade and made the playoffs frequently, but each playoff appearance was a splat. (3) When Sano and Buxton make the majors, with the team as currently constituted, they will both need to be better than Mike Trout to lead this team deep into the playoffs. It's not likely that they will both be that good that quickly, which means that people saying TR and RG deserve a chance with these players will then say that TR and RG deserve a chance when these players hit their primes, which is probably going to be around 2018 or 2019. Is that really what people intend - let's give TR and RG until 2018? Because, if it isn't, then the time is now to make the change.

 

Second, my hope for manager is Terry Steinbach. I don't have much against Molitor, but Steinbach was a winner as a player, he played a central position, and his post-retirement story is of someone who loves baseball. Several retired catchers are leading managers today, perhaps because of their experience dealing with pitching, batting and game strategy. Being part of the Tony LaRussa tree will be a benefit, also.

[bird]

Two thoughts.

 

First, sometimes it seems that people wishing to retain Ryan and Gardenhire have perhaps two or three key arguments. None of these are good arguments for continued employment. The arguments are the following: (1) they're not the worst in the league; (2) they've done pretty good jobs in the past; and (3) they deserve a chance when the next crop of stars reach the majors. These arguments are not that good.

 

(1) "Not the worst" is true, but does not mean the best or even near the best. Their track records are long enough to know what Ryan and Gardenhire bring to the table and how they go about their jobs, and it would take at least six hits of the lucky stick for them ever to come close to the World Series. (2) It's true that they've done a decent job in the past, but their best result has been getting crushed in the ALCS twelve years ago. After that, the Twins were a competitive team for most of the decade and made the playoffs frequently, but each playoff appearance was a splat. (3) When Sano and Buxton make the majors, with the team as currently constituted, they will both need to be better than Mike Trout to lead this team deep into the playoffs. It's not likely that they will both be that good that quickly, which means that people saying TR and RG deserve a chance with these players will then say that TR and RG deserve a chance when these players hit their primes, which is probably going to be around 2018 or 2019. Is that really what people intend - let's give TR and RG until 2018? Because, if it isn't, then the time is now to make the change.

 

Second, my hope for manager is Terry Steinbach. I don't have much against Molitor, but Steinbach was a winner as a player, he played a central position, and his post-retirement story is of someone who loves baseball. Several retired catchers are leading managers today, perhaps because of their experience dealing with pitching, batting and game strategy. Being part of the Tony LaRussa tree will be a benefit, also.

 

None of these three have been foundational arguments expressed on Twins Daily over the past three years, IMO.

[TheLeviathan]

None of these three have been foundational arguments expressed on Twins Daily over the past three years, IMO.

 

Please elaborate them...because some of them were mentioned already in a 15 reply thread.

[Thrylos]

And is Molitor the clear "next in line" manager?

 

That has to do with who the general manager is. If he/she is external, I doubt that Molitor will be it. If he (cannot see an internal female candidate) is internal, depending on who that is, the manage will likely be one of Molitor, Steiny and Glynn, or even (gulp) Scottie.

[bird]

Please elaborate them...because some of them were mentioned already in a 15 reply thread.

 

C'mon now, Levi. "Not the worst"? Geez. That 15 reply thread is so far from the types of very logical arguments in support of either Gardy or Ryan we've both encountered here

over the past three years.

[Thrylos]

C'mon now, Levi. "Not the worst"? Geez. That 15 reply thread is so far from the types of very logical arguments in support of either Gardy or Ryan we've both encountered here

over the past three years.

 

Logic? More like Dialetheism.

[Dr. Evil]

Oh no! We suck again! Gardie/Ryan old loyalties are a commendable principle, results speak volumes.

[stringer bell]

I think the pro-management view isn't that Ryan and Gardy "aren't the worst", but rather that the roster and resulting poor play was not the fault of Ryan and Gardy. I don't buy all of that. I do think both Ryan and Gardy are good baseball men, but that it is time for a major change in the organization.

[TheLeviathan]

C'mon now, Levi. "Not the worst"? Geez. That 15 reply thread is so far from the types of very logical arguments in support of either Gardy or Ryan we've both encountered here over the past three years.

 

To me, most of the arguments do boil down to the list above. Again, I'd like to hear these logical arguments.

 

I don't think Gardy is a bad manager - he's just had a bad run recently and it's time for things to change. He's gotten far more leash than basically anyone in baseball in as long as I can remember.

[Thrylos]

I think the pro-management view isn't that Ryan and Gardy "aren't the worst", but rather that the roster and resulting poor play was not the fault of Ryan and Gardy. I don't buy all of that. I do think both Ryan and Gardy are good baseball men, but that it is time for a major change in the organization.

 

Thus the Dialetheism reference above. Pick one: Either the GM got bad players on the roster or the manager and his coaches cannot make them work. Cannot have your pie and eat it too.

[curt1965]

Going back to the question of the possible managerial change: I like gunnarthor's choice of Dougie Ballgame! If you look back at some of the newer hires-Matheny from the Cardinals and Ausmus of Tigers to mention a couple-organizations seem to be looking to youth and energy. I just don't get Molitor. IMO, his reputation has been enhanced by the media who somehow think retired superstars make good managers. In addition, he has no managerial experience.

[TheLeviathan]

Going back to the question of the possible managerial change: I like gunnarthor's choice of Dougie Ballgame! If you look back at some of the newer hires-Matheny from the Cardinals and Ausmus of Tigers to mention a couple-organizations seem to be looking to youth and energy. I just don't get Molitor. IMO, his reputation has been enhanced by the media who somehow think retired superstars make good managers. In addition, he has no managerial experience.

 

Long term I think you're right. Though I see it playing out with Molitor getting the big job and Dougie M. being a bench coach a few years before getting his shot.

 

I like him as well though.

[Deduno Abides]

C'mon now, Levi. "Not the worst"? Geez. That 15 reply thread is so far from the types of very logical arguments in support of either Gardy or Ryan we've both encountered here

over the past three years.

M. Birdwatcher, it seems that every time someone criticizes Ryan, for example, someone in his defense points out something he did well, as if he should not be criticized until everything he does is a mistake and it can be easily seen that he is the worst GM in the league (which he isn't and which should not be the litmus test of continuing in his job). If you believe the reasons listed in my earlier post are not the defenses commonly given for retaining TR and RG, please identify the reasons why you think they should be retained. These are good baseball people we are discussing and there could be very good reasons for retaining them that I am missing (although I think they have grown very stale as members of the Minnesota Twins organization - as Bill James sort of said many years ago, usually people get hired to bring certain skills to an organization and usually they later get fired because those skills are no longer the ones the organization needs), and I would be interested in hearing these reasons.

[drjim]

Thus the Dialetheism reference above. Pick one: Either the GM got bad players on the roster or the manager and his coaches cannot make them work. Cannot have your pie and eat it too.

 

I would comfortably say the previous GM put the franchise in position for this nose dive.

 

I would also say the current manager (and pitching coach) should be replaced.

 

I think Terry Ryan is a top GM, based both on his success in the 2000s and how he has rebuilt the organization since he took over. Results haven't shown up on the major league side, but that is a product of the abyss he inherited, hard to turnaround a baseball franchise that quickly. Terry Ryan is not perfect, so there will of course always be fodder for critics.

[Guest USAFChief]

I think there's a pretty good chance Gardy is gone after this season. Nobody wants to keep watching this.

 

Of course, I thought there was no way he was coming back after last year, so what do I know?

 

I don't think ownership has the courage to replace Ryan, regardless of whether they should or not. He might resign for health reasons, but they won't can him.