KLaw rankings

[tobi0040]

Sorry, 5 from the Central, I forgot Frazier from Cleveland.

 

EDIT: Check that again, Frazier didn't make the list, so it is 4.

 

Even more encourating when you look at the standings as well. We have the same record as the White Sox, 3 back from Cleveland, 4 back from KC with a much better pipeline.

 

Detroit, they are certainly an aging, expensive team. Odds are Max walks at the end of the year. At some point Cabrera has to slow down a bit right? He can't hit .330 with 40 HR when he is 35+. Verlanders best days are behind him. I just wish Texas would not have taken Prince's contract. What were they thinking?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Even more encourating when you look at the standings as well. We have the same record as the White Sox, 3 back from Cleveland, 4 back from KC with a much better pipeline.

 

Hey, we're only X games behind these non-playoff teams! And we have a better farm system than them too!

[tobi0040]

Hey, we're only X games behind these non-playoff teams! And we have a better farm system than them too!

 

We don't need to outrun the bear here. And I did make a comment about the Tigers. They could have a tough fall from grace here.

[nicksaviking]

Detroit, they are certainly an aging, expensive team. Odds are Max walks at the end of the year. At some point Cabrera has to slow down a bit right? He can't hit .330 with 40 HR when he is 35+. Verlanders best days are behind him. I just wish Texas would not have taken Prince's contract. What were they thinking?

 

I hear you but Max Scherzer, Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter are all free agents after this year and all will leave a pretty sizable hole in the team. They'll almost certainly make at least one more poor contract decision this off season to fill them as they have next to no prospects they can plug in.

 

For fun, my prediction is they keep Scherzer on a terrible 6 year deal and sign Nelson Cruz to an equally terrible four year deal. Let's throw in a three year deal for JJ Hardy as well.

[tobi0040]

I hear you but Max Scherzer, Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter are all free agents after this year and all will leave a pretty sizable hole in the team. They'll almost certainly make at least one more poor contract decision this off season to fill them as they have next to no prospects they can plug in.

 

For fun, my prediction is they keep Scherzer on a terrible 6 year deal and sign Nelson Cruz to an equally terrible four year deal. Let's throw in a three year deal for JJ Hardy as well.

 

Those are possibilities. But it would have been fun watching Prince another 6-7 years there. He is already struggling and he isn't going to age well.

[Mike Sixel]

Losing Hunter and getting a better player will likely help them.....

[Wookiee of the Year]

This is encouraging... For all those Law disciples, maybe this ranking can stop some of the complaining about Kohl Stewart's lack of strikeouts. I like this ranking. I'm good with where Gordon is, though I personally probably won't rank him that high... but we'll see. Berrios at 50 is fine. The rest are fine where they are. Buxton at #2 isn't a bad thing at all.

The Stewart ranking has to be the biggest surprise, for me. Not that he's seen an incredible drop-off this season, but I just didn't realize he'd done much to improve his prospect stock. Had I made a list of Prospect Risers and Prospect Sinkers so far this season, I wouldn't have put Stewart's name on either one--which means seeing him at #19 is not something I saw coming.

 

Certainly no complaints!

 

EDIT: I'll add I've got no problem with Buxton at #2 and Bryant at #1. Biggest surprise of the Futures Game was that Bryant didn't hit a home run. And I'm confident once Buxton can prove his wrist injury is completely behind him and go back to putting up eye-popping numbers, he'll reclaim the top spot.

[spanman2]

I think we should be pleased at the number of prospects in the top #50. The fact of Buxton being 1 or 2 isnt that big of a deal.

[kdrupp09]

Having Buxton at number 2 isn't a big deal to me either, I was simply curious who they had at number 1. I did not realize Bryant was putting up the numbers he was.

[jokin]

I can't really blame him. I love Buxton, but when you don't play and someone else his .333 with 31 HR and 25 2B in half a season at AA and AAA.....

 

Also interesting to note that Law has Meyer and Berrios as high as he does (42 and 50). I have heard him suggest on chats that neither will pan out. The logic used on Meyer is that Randy Johnson is basically the only pitcher 6'9 or taller that had a good career as a starter and that Berrios is too short and does not have a downward plane or much movement on the FB.

 

For the record, Klaw in his analysis of Meyer, although he loves his FB and Sinker, because of the lack of a third pitch and lack of strike consistency, he still leaves open the possibility that he ultimately ends up as a reliever. (He did say in a seperate article while reviewing the Futures Game, that he thought Meyer had the best movement on both the FB and the Sinker).

 

For Berrios, he's overall positive on his chances, despite his diminutive size, suggesting he add a fourth pitch, a two-seam FB to his repertoire, and favorably compared him to Yordano Ventura.

 

The most disturbing review was for Sano, on an issue that some on TD insist and assume is a settled issue with him being at 3B for the next decade:

 

[For Sano]...the projection remains the same -- 35-40 homer power, .350+ OBPs, most likely in right field or at first base.

[jokin]

By contrast, the most encouraging write-up was for Nick Gordon's lofty debut ranking at #25. Has anyone else gone out on the limb and rated Gordon this high? He's ranked just after wunderkind Raul Mondesi Jr. - turns 19 at the end of the month, playing in A+ ball, and who is probably the highest ceiling SS among all prospects.

[Thrylos]

Even more encourating when you look at the standings as well. We have the same record as the White Sox, 3 back from Cleveland, 4 back from KC with a much better pipeline.

 

Detroit, they are certainly an aging, expensive team. Odds are Max walks at the end of the year. At some point Cabrera has to slow down a bit right? He can't hit .330 with 40 HR when he is 35+. Verlanders best days are behind him. I just wish Texas would not have taken Prince's contract. What were they thinking?

 

Pipeline is one thing, the willingness to spend $150-200M a year and to sign expensive free agents or get expensive players in trades is another. The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and the Tigers are all using plan B to build and thus their pipelines are somewhat irrelevant.

 

Jose Abreu and Tanaka (for a couple of examples) did not appear in anyone's pipeline last season this time. Don't get me wrong, it is great that the Twins are finally having a good strong farm system. But that is not enough these days....

[jokin]

Pipeline is one thing, the willingness to spend $150-200M a year and to sign expensive free agents or get expensive players in trades is another. The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and the Tigers are all using plan B to build and thus their pipelines are somewhat irrelevant.

 

Jose Abreu and Tanaka (for a couple of examples) did not appear in anyone's pipeline last season this time. Don't get me wrong, it is great that the Twins are finally having a good strong farm system. But that is not enough these days....

 

Well to be fair, we've been talking about Abreu and Tanaka for quite some time. They were never going to get Tanaka, of course. But, I said it when Abreu's name first came up, and said it on the day that Abreu was signed by the Sox, the Twins would rue the day they weren't more proactive on him.... his numbers in Cuba all comped favorably with Cespedes and Puig. Abreu was had for a veritable bargain by the Sox, now he's a hands-down ROY, and a mainstay piece for the life of his relatively cheap contract with Chicago.

[nicksaviking]

Losing Hunter and getting a better player will likely help them.....

 

I'd agree, but only in the short term. The best thing about Hunter was his short contract. The Tigers don't do a lot of those and here's hoping they find another albatross to replace Hunter.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

According to KLaw, #MNTwins have the number 2 (Buxton), 11 (Sano), 19 (Stewart), 25 (Gordon), 42 (Meyer) and 50 (Berrios) prospects.

 

We need a catcher and a LH starter to add to this list.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

He got Gordon too high, I think. But I also think that he is not even the Twins' top SS prospect (Polanco is.) Time will tell.

I'm looking forward to seeing which one of these two stays at SS and which one moves to 3B. Sano will end up in LF, I think due to his size. He'll only get bigger than he is right now.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

KLAW mentions that Sano is "most likely" not a 3B long term......

Really, if you are a baseball fan, you should pay for insider to read KLAW and Crawford (and some great NFL stuff if you like that too). It isn't that much money, I pay primarily for KLAW and NFL draft stuff.

How about an OF of Sano, Buxton and Arcia/Rosario?

[Ncgo4]

These ratings are interesting in light of what happened yesterday. Buxton homered in the 9th yesterday to go 2-4. This follows a 3-5 night with a triple. His spring training is being done in live time during games, so not easy.

 

Stewart started and went 5 shut out innings. 0 walks, 3 k's and a 9-2 ground out fly ball ratio. He got the win and finally had solid defensive help. Like Buxton's spring training in public, Stewart is having his no football, full summer of baseball learning experience in public. In the last 10 games he's got a 2.42 ERA with 1 very bad outing about 6 or 7 games ago. Without this his ERA is well below 2.

 

I'm pretty excited about both of these two prospects. We need to watch Buxton closely. A week of solid hitting and he may very well move up. I assume this would be to AA and not AAA, but I'll defer to someone smarter. Twin's management night decide early that his spring training is over. I'll be surprised if Stewart goes anywhere, though. At 19 they must really watching his innings. He's at 81 innings so far after 20 innings all last year. If he can continue getting in 4-6 innings an outing and not get beaten up, will they pull the plug at some point or do they base this on his ability to maintain speed, etc?

[drjim]

Stewart won't get out of Cedar Rapids, though I'm not exactly sure what his innings cap would be at this point, low 100s probably. The thing to consider for last year is that he had a high school schedule and did pitch in instructs, so that innings count is a little deceiving.

 

Buxton will go to AA as soon as he is ready, which might not be long. He should then play in the Fall League too. I'm still optimistic on his timetable, barring injury I think he makes it to Minnesota late April/early May next year (once he passes the threshold for an extra year of control).

[jokin]

Stewart won't get out of Cedar Rapids, though I'm not exactly sure what his innings cap would be at this point, low 100s probably. The thing to consider for last year is that he had a high school schedule and did pitch in instructs, so that innings count is a little deceiving.

 

Buxton will go to AA as soon as he is ready, which might not be long. He should then play in the Fall League too. I'm still optimistic on his timetable, barring injury I think he makes it to Minnesota late April/early May next year (once he passes the threshold for an extra year of control).

 

It's going to be quite interesting how the Buxton timetable all shakes out- as every move has implications up and down the system. Barring unprecedented aggressiveness by the Twins.... AA has to be his next step, and I would think if he continues to hit like he has the last two games...and...he demonstrates no lingering effects from the wrist injury, he could be in New Britain by this time next week, or no later than the end of the month. This sets up a potential OF in AA of Buxton, Rosario and Hicks, each needing time in CF. Hicks is finally showing some life in his bat, does he stay in AA or move up to Rochester? Tie this all in with Santana, who is playing full games now, but not hitting yet, and needs time in both CF and SS- which in turn affects Polanco, who is due for a promotion, and perhaps waiting on Michael to finish his rehab assignment with the GCL club.

 

Meanwhile, Rochester has no CF on the roster, it seems like one of these guys should go there just to balance out the playing time issues.

 

As of now, I share your optimism for Buxton's arrival, I've hoped the Twins and Buxton had this as their goal from the time he was drafted, but I wonder if they wait until the Super 2 date has passed- the AFL performance might push the timetable one way or the other.

[gunnarthor]

As of now, I share your optimism for Buxton's arrival, I've hoped the Twins and Buxton had this as their goal from the time he was drafted, but I wonder if they wait until the Super 2 date has passed- the AFL performance might push the timetable one way or the other.

They didn't wait on the Super 2 for Hicks so I guess if he "earns" it in ST, he can get it. That said, I'd be stunned if they didn't wait for the Super 2 date to pass.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think if Buxton gets promoted, Hicks will move to AAA. That's my 2 cents.

[jokin]

They didn't wait on the Super 2 for Hicks so I guess if he "earns" it in ST, he can get it. That said, I'd be stunned if they didn't wait for the Super 2 date to pass.

 

As I've outlined in the past when Hicks first came up in 2013, the potential cost to the team for calling him up early was going to be minimal compared to an early call for Buxton. Much like there was no need to fret about Plouffe being a Super 2 vs. holding back Sano in the same scenario.

[Mike Sixel]

Right, there was little chance hicks was a superstar.....so why wait? There is a chance Buxton is, so some say wait (not for super 2, but for 1 more year of control). I'd guess he won't come up until they guarantee they control him for that next year.

 

But, they have talked big, and said that stuff doesn't matter. So, there is a chance he is on the roster out of ST next year, but I'd guess that is less than 50%, given this year.

[Steven Buhr]

Guess I have trouble imagining the Super-2 thing being an issue with Buxton's arrival. He's not going to be a guy you spend the pre-arbitration years wondering whether he's going to figure it all out or not. Have to figure the Twins will try to lock him up long term early and, unless he decides to retain Boras as his agent, I think he'll be open to a fair deal.

 

But most of all, I just think the Twins are going to get Buxton and Sano to Minneapolis as soon as their play on the field makes it possible at this point. The whole organization, from front office to clubhouse to fan base, needs something to get excited about and they can't wait until June to get it just because of a Super-2 cut-off.

[jokin]

Guess I have trouble imagining the Super-2 thing being an issue with Buxton's arrival. He's not going to be a guy you spend the pre-arbitration years wondering whether he's going to figure it all out or not. Have to figure the Twins will try to lock him up long term early and, unless he decides to retain Boras as his agent, I think he'll be open to a fair deal.

 

But most of all, I just think the Twins are going to get Buxton and Sano to Minneapolis as soon as their play on the field makes it possible at this point. The whole organization, from front office to clubhouse to fan base, needs something to get excited about and they can't wait until June to get it just because of a Super-2 cut-off.

 

Too much logic and common sense, JC. This just isn't the Twins MO, and both Sano and Buxton have been getting the superstar treatment for so long, I think they both have been sold on a big FA payday just down the road... I would be stunned if either was in a Twins uniform before July, 2015, and not a bit surprised if they don't get the call until September 1.

[gunnarthor]

Klaw chat today answered a Berrios question:

 

 

About a month ago I asked if Berrios was a top 100 prospect and you said no. What has changed since then and now to move him up in your rankings? Obviously, he was promoted to AA in that time period.

[h=6]Klaw (2:39 PM)

[/h]

 

Changeup. Same concerns on height/fastball, but third pitch has come along rapidly this year.

[Steven Buhr]

Too much logic and common sense, JC. This just isn't the Twins MO, and both Sano and Buxton have been getting the superstar treatment for so long, I think they both have been sold on a big FA payday just down the road... I would be stunned if either was in a Twins uniform before July, 2015, and not a bit surprised if they don't get the call until September 1.

 

You may be right, but I think we should be cautious about basing opinions on what the Twins' MO has been. What's their MO for potential superstars? Small sample size, because this FO has only had 1, but they got Mauer up as soon as he was deemed ready.

 

The July-September estimate you give is quite possible and even likely, perhaps. But if it takes until that time frame, I believe it will be because they weren't ready - and that's not exactly an unlikely scenario, given where the two of them are at in terms of development right this minute.

[drjim]

You may be right, but I think we should be cautious about basing opinions on what the Twins' MO has been. What's their MO for potential superstars? Small sample size, because this FO has only had 1, but they got Mauer up as soon as he was deemed ready.

 

The July-September estimate you give is quite possible and even likely, perhaps. But if it takes until that time frame, I believe it will be because they weren't ready - and that's not exactly an unlikely scenario, given where the two of them are at in terms of development right this minute.

 

Concur with this. There are assumptions about Twins MO on call ups that can't be confirmed with evidence.

 

I also agree with the second part - Sano will miss an entire year and still hasn't played a full year at AA, it would be really quick to get him up before at least half a season. Buxton will be interested, I still maintain that if he lights it up from now through spring training he will be up before July - especially with the clustermess of CF at the moment.

[jokin]

Concur with this. There are assumptions about Twins MO on call ups that can't be confirmed with evidence.

 

I also agree with the second part - Sano will miss an entire year and still hasn't played a full year at AA, it would be really quick to get him up before at least half a season. Buxton will be interested, I still maintain that if he lights it up from now through spring training he will be up before July - especially with the clustermess of CF at the moment.

 

You mean other than Gibson, Meyer and May?

 

Santana was called up only after the Twins had left themselves no other options, even when it was obvious in ST that P-Flo wasn't going to be ready to play at a major league level.