Trade opportunities -players dropping like flies

[Mike Sixel]

If you believe in pitch framing at all, you might want to look more closely at keeping Suzuki....

[diehardtwinsfan]

Given that they are on pace (give or take 2 or so games) to lose 90 games again, how far do you expect them to get next year? In 2016, Perkins will be 33.....how LIKELY is it that he's elite still? I think you have to listen on anyone over 30. You don't give him away, but if they can get a potential every day player for him, you need to at least consider it.

 

Sano and Buxton's injuries probably delayed it a bit but 2015/16 still seems to be a pretty reasonable timeline, and I suspect Dozier will still be producing that point. I'll add to it that I wouldn't be shocked if he's upped the BA a bit as well. He'll still be very valuable, and if Rosario and Polanco are performing, he's still going to get a nice return at that point.

[Shane Wahl]

I bet everything that after Joe Mauer, the least likely guys the Twins will trade are Glen Perkins and Brian Dozier.

 

Anyway, I don't know if I will have the time to look around at other teams for trades this year, but imagine the following (just to maybe end any "top 25 prospect" talk) using comparable Twins prospects:

 

Suzuki for Kennys Vargas (10-12ish)

Fien for Adam Walker (12-15ish)

Willingham for Sean Gilmartin (18-20ish)

Morales for Fernando Romero (18-20ish)

Correia for Aderlin Mejia (25-30ish)

Duensing for Jason Kanzler (around 50)

Matt Guerrier for Matt Tomshaw (50s)

 

Note that this was based on prospect level and not on age considerations or anything like that (Darnell instead of Mejia or something).

[Dave T]

Suzuki doesn't profile as that good a hitter. His value is at an all-time high.

His value to the Twins is also at an all-time high. I'm not saying don't trade him. I'd talk to him first about what he wants to do next year. If he wants an extension, why the hell not give it to him? Who else do the Twins have for a catcher?

[gunnarthor]

I bet everything that after Joe Mauer, the least likely guys the Twins will trade are Glen Perkins and Brian Dozier.

 

Anyway, I don't know if I will have the time to look around at other teams for trades this year, but imagine the following (just to maybe end any "top 25 prospect" talk) using comparable Twins prospects:

 

Suzuki for Kennys Vargas (10-12ish)

Fien for Adam Walker (12-15ish)

Willingham for Sean Gilmartin (18-20ish)

Morales for Fernando Romero (18-20ish)

Correia for Aderlin Mejia (25-30ish)

Duensing for Jason Kanzler (around 50)

Matt Guerrier for Matt Tomshaw (50s)

 

Note that this was based on prospect level and not on age considerations or anything like that (Darnell instead of Mejia or something).

I think Willingham's value is much higher - if he only brings back a Doumit haul, I'd be stunned. Half a season of Beltran got Zach Wheeler, half a season of Shane Victorino (1.5 WAR, 94 OPS+ at the time) got 3 players back, including a guy who was the #80 prospect on the next rankings. He might not get those returns but he should get a lot more than Doumit did. A backend top 100 type and another prospect to go with it. Something like that. If they are just going to trade him for a AA soft tossing pitcher, just keep him and let him hit a few more homers at TF.

[tobi0040]

I think Willingham's value is much higher - if he only brings back a Doumit haul, I'd be stunned. Half a season of Beltran got Zach Wheeler, half a season of Shane Victorino (1.5 WAR, 94 OPS+ at the time) got 3 players back, including a guy who was the #80 prospect on the next rankings. He might not get those returns but he should get a lot more than Doumit did. A backend top 100 type and another prospect to go with it. Something like that. If they are just going to trade him for a AA soft tossing pitcher, just keep him and let him hit a few more homers at TF.

 

The other issue is our prospect rankings are skewed because we have a great system. Trevor May was the Phillies top prospect and he rated between 6-8 here initially, for example.

 

I think we can get a top 10 prospect for Suzuki given the year he has had, the lack of depth at the position, injuries, importance of a catcher, etc.

[Shane Wahl]

I think Willingham's value is much higher - if he only brings back a Doumit haul, I'd be stunned. Half a season of Beltran got Zach Wheeler, half a season of Shane Victorino (1.5 WAR, 94 OPS+ at the time) got 3 players back, including a guy who was the #80 prospect on the next rankings. He might not get those returns but he should get a lot more than Doumit did. A backend top 100 type and another prospect to go with it. Something like that. If they are just going to trade him for a AA soft tossing pitcher, just keep him and let him hit a few more homers at TF.

 

Maybe you're right. I do think that health issues are the main factor that would be driving down his value.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Anyway, I don't know if I will have the time to look around at other teams for trades this year, but imagine the following (just to maybe end any "top 25 prospect" talk) using comparable Twins prospects:

 

Interesting list, but for most of these guys, I think we might have to accept cast-offs more than any kind prospect (think Hernandez & Escobar, Presley & Welker). IF we can get anything at all. Suzuki and Fien seem the best bets to actually have an interested partner.

 

FYI, Suzuki was traded in 2012 for the Nationals 27th ranked prospect by BA (two years prior a 15th round college catcher draftee). Some cash considerations were sent with Suzuki too -- he was making $5 mil that season, and was due $6.5 million the next year and had a team option for 2014.

 

In 2013, with an expiring contract, Suzuki netted a player not ranked on Oakland's top 30 by BA (a college pitcher who was their previous year's 9th round draft pick).

 

Both times, Suzuki was traded in August so he presumably passed waivers, due to his salary plus poor performances.

[Boom Boom]

His value to the Twins is also at an all-time high. I'm not saying don't trade him. I'd talk to him first about what he wants to do next year. If he wants an extension, why the hell not give it to him? Who else do the Twins have for a catcher?

 

I think there's a pretty good chance that Suzuki, after the season he's having, wouldn't want to take an extension mid-season from the Twins when he could sign with a real contender in the offseason.

 

I also don't think it's a great idea to sign Suzuki to an extension at his all-time high value.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Maybe you're right. I do think that health issues are the main factor that would be driving down his value.

 

I also see a situation where league drives value.

 

An AL team is almost certainly going to pay more for Willingham, as they can rotate him through DH to keep him fresh.

 

An NL team has to roll him into left every day and cross their fingers.

[jorgenswest]

My fear is that Suzuki will be given a two year extension and perform like he did in 2012 and 2013.

[jorgenswest]

I also see a situation where league drives value.

 

An AL team is almost certainly going to pay more for Willingham, as they can rotate him through DH to keep him fresh.

 

An NL team has to roll him into left every day and cross their fingers.

 

Players like Willingham will never have good value in the summer. Teams are never desperate for a LF or DH. They have someone who can do the job. Every summer guys like Soriano or Reynolds are released. The only place where there is less value due to more supply is relief pitchers.

 

Relief pitchers will be moved. Bats like Willingham will be moved. None of those trade will be exciting.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Players like Willingham will never have good value in the summer. Teams are never desperate for a LF or DH. They have someone who can do the job. Every summer guys like Soriano or Reynolds are released. The only place where there is less value due to more supply is relief pitchers.

 

Relief pitchers will be moved. Bats like Willingham will be moved. None of those trade will be exciting.

 

I agree that Willingham won't bring a big haul (unless he really gets hot in next two weeks) but I think AL teams will show more interest because of the inherent flexibility of the DH.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think Willingham's value is much higher - if he only brings back a Doumit haul, I'd be stunned. Half a season of Beltran got Zach Wheeler, half a season of Shane Victorino (1.5 WAR, 94 OPS+ at the time) got 3 players back, including a guy who was the #80 prospect on the next rankings. He might not get those returns but he should get a lot more than Doumit did. A backend top 100 type and another prospect to go with it. Something like that. If they are just going to trade him for a AA soft tossing pitcher, just keep him and let him hit a few more homers at TF.

 

Careful with using select trades as a benchmark for others, especially trades that seem very favorable to one team even at the time (i.e. Doumit and Beltran). Such deals are always possible, sure, but not necessarily probable at any given time due to all sorts of circumstances. (Otherwise, some GM could just keeping flipping Drew Butera clones all the time!)

 

- Beltran was raking with a 151 OPS+ at the time of his trade, and had been healthy all season.

 

- Victorino was not raking, but he was a healthy 31 year old CF, and it was the crazy Dodgers trade frenzy year (plus they didn't give up that much -- of the 3 players, one is out of baseball now, another was flipped for Michael Young, and "#80 prospect" you mention was one of those wild 6+ BB/9 guys who was only ranked #80 by MLB.com -- no other service ranked him in the top 100, and none had done so the previous 2-3 winters either).

 

- Doumit... well that one is a head-scratcher. I have no idea what the Braves were thinking there, especially given how they've deployed Doumit this season.

 

Willingham is older than even Beltran was at the time of his trade, has missed ~40 games this year, ~40 games last year, plus is playing pretty badly during that stretch (.209 BA for 2013-2014, 102 OPS+ with negative defensive value). The Twins might be lucky to get someone else to take his salary at this point.

[tobi0040]

My fear is that Suzuki will be given a two year extension and perform like he did in 2012 and 2013.

 

That is a risk, but those two years were sandwiched by decent offensive numbers for the positions:

 

2008 - .716 OPS

2009 - .734 OPS

2010 - .669 OPS

2011 - .686 OPS

2014 - .759 OPS

 

I think you trade him if he doesn't sign an extension, wants north of $8M a year, more than 2 years, or you get a great haul. But barring those I say 2 years and 14 to 16 is fine with me. I think the numbers he put up even in bad years may end up being better than the alternative. I don't think we trust Pinto, so you may end up with Fryer or Hermann, especially with young pitchers coming up.

 

The FA market is scary.

[Mike Sixel]

Sano and Buxton's injuries probably delayed it a bit but 2015/16 still seems to be a pretty reasonable timeline, and I suspect Dozier will still be producing that point. I'll add to it that I wouldn't be shocked if he's upped the BA a bit as well. He'll still be very valuable, and if Rosario and Polanco are performing, he's still going to get a nice return at that point.

 

I was talking about Perkins in the quote you responded to.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think you have to let it ride with Pinto at one point. You just do. The concern I'd have about Suzuki is that his presence here would keep Pinto off the field longer than it should. For that matter, so would just about anyone's presence... Maybe the trick is to have 1 C and Escobar/Mauer around for emergencies

 

That said, I think Suzuki is going to bring value... I think you trade him. Hammer is a bit more questionable... he needs to get hot and stay hot. So does Morales. If those two are hitting well, someone will give us something decent to get them.

[tobi0040]

I think you have to let it ride with Pinto at one point. You just do. The concern I'd have about Suzuki is that his presence here would keep Pinto off the field longer than it should. For that matter, so would just about anyone's presence... Maybe the trick is to have 1 C and Escobar/Mauer around for emergencies

 

That said, I think Suzuki is going to bring value... I think you trade him. Hammer is a bit more questionable... he needs to get hot and stay hot. So does Morales. If those two are hitting well, someone will give us something decent to get them.

 

As usual, there is what should be done and what will be done in the context of a Ron Gardenhire team. I agree, we should have been giving Pinto reps all year at catcher, at least 2-3 times a week. The third catcher bit, Pedro Florimon, Drew Butera, etc.

 

Sometimes you have to see things like this as a reality. I think the reality of it is, we won't trust Pinto any more next year than we did this year. Especially when guys like Perkins call him out and we have more on the line, i.e. the development of Meyer and May. I am not saying we absolutly can't trade him, trade him if you get a real nice piece back. But re-signing him should be an option as well given what we may end up having at catcher next year.

 

It is too bad we have to live with this reality, but we do.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't understand why people are worried about getting "meh" specs for guys that will no longer exist as Twins two months later.

 

Give me something rather than another summer of nothing.

[Shane Wahl]

I don't understand why people are worried about getting "meh" specs for guys that will no longer exist as Twins two months later.

 

Give me something rather than another summer of nothing.

 

I know. There will be some good players involved and even if they never make it as Twins they are added assets to create depth in the farm system so if the Twins top prospects arrive EVER and they turn it around to contention they will have more guys to deal without destroying the farm.

[jorgenswest]

Cardinals claimed George Kottaras. I guess they prefer him over Pierzynski and Buck.

[jokin]

Cardinals claimed George Kottaras. I guess they prefer him over Pierzynski and Buck.

 

I'm disappointed and wondering why the Twins didn't claim him, since he went to the NL, they obviously had no interest. If they were going to move Suzuki, Kottaras would have been a nice part-time caretaker until Pinto is recalled.

[ScrapTheNickname]

I think there's a pretty good chance that Suzuki, after the season he's having, wouldn't want to take an extension mid-season from the Twins when he could sign with a real contender in the offseason.

 

I also don't think it's a great idea to sign Suzuki to an extension at his all-time high value.

 

You just have to make it complicated, don't you.

[h2oface]

The world is a twitter prospect world now. Unfortunate. I have never seen how it is beneficial to trade ones best players for prospects. The Cubs and Kansas City have been doing that for years......... and the future never arrives. A team is not made of prospects, it is made of players who are no longer prospects. Those that keep some of the core (including Billy add prospects, and there is a good mix that gels and can grow quickly into a champion. Champions are not made from always selling the best players for a hope.

[LaBombo]

The world is a twitter prospect world now. Unfortunate. I have never seen how it is beneficial to trade ones best players for prospects. The Cubs and Kansas City have been doing that for years......... and the future never arrives. A team is not made of prospects, it is made of players who are no longer prospects. Those that keep some of the core (including Billy add prospects, and there is a good mix that gels and can grow quickly into a champion. Champions are not made from always selling the best players for a hope.

 

The Cubs are bad because they're the Cubs. The other teams you mention or alluded to are generally low budget teams trying to get something for a player they can't resign, and some (Miami, Tampa, Oakland among others) have been pretty successful.

 

The counter-truism to yours is that not making major changes to a losing franchise just preserves a culture of losing. And if the rest of the league's past behavior is any gauge, the Twins have already made one major error on the side of caution in that regard with the retention of Gardenhire.

 

With any luck, Ryan is making personnel decisions on a case-by-case basis to improve the future of one of the worst 25 man rosters in baseball, and not just going by a philosophy of either hanging onto or dumping almost everyone.

[h2oface]

I think that Suzuki's leadership for a young staff is very integral. Pinto is expendable. I feel Suzuki is the one to take the Twins to the future catchers, who I believe are Stuart Turner (Fort Meyers) or more probably Mitch Garver (Cedar Rapids).

[h2oface]

The Cubs are bad because they're the Cubs.

 

Well, I can never go with a glittering generality about any team, and I do not agree the Cubs are bad because they're the Cubs.

 

The counter-truism to yours is that not making major changes to a losing franchise just preserves a culture of losing. And if the rest of the league's past behavior is any gauge, the Twins have already made one major error on the side of caution in that regard with the retention of Gardenhire.

 

I certainly don't claim a "truism" in my musings, and I thought Gardenhire should have been gone in 2007. I don't believe I was making a statement that major moves shouldn't be made. I was trying to refer specifically about trading the most integral parts of your team for the unknown hope of prospects, always prospects..........

 

With any luck, Ryan is making personnel decisions on a case-by-case basis to improve the future of one of the worst 25 man rosters in baseball, and not just going by a philosophy of either hanging onto or dumping almost everyone.

 

I commend you for having faith in Ryan, as I can't separate him from Gardenhire, as they seem joined at the hip.

[LaBombo]

It's hard to see anybody getting very excited about what the Twins could probably get for Suzuki. He's had a nice little run, but most teams won't overpay for a guy who's almost 31 and likely to regress.

 

If they don't move him it's not the end of the franchise. But if the Twins keep running him out there for two or three years while Pinto rots in AAA and they wait and hope for one of two long shots to develop into a good MLB catcher, well, that sounds like planned mediocrity, which unfortunately has a high probability of success.

[drjim]

If one loves Suzuki so much, why not get something for him now and then sign him in the offseason. There is no other smart move to make with regard to Suzuki. Sure, there is no guarantee then, but that should hardly matter if getting a top 10ish prospect from the Cardinals could be at stake.

 

Willingham, Morales, Suzuki, Correia, Fien, and Duensing would be the six I would be looking to trade.

 

Just want to add that this list is spot on. Twins could realistically trade all 6.

 

This will be a telling trade deadline for the Twins. I imagine they are in a bit of a bind. They could be aggressive and sell off the pieces but they also have (perceived) business considerations. With the all star game this season they will have no more gimmicks to fall back upon for ticket sales. I wonder if they see value in trying to have a semi-respectable finish to the season (low to mid 70s wins) as having value in retaining a season ticket base. If they sell off 6 guys that could make it more difficult.

 

My take is there really would be little difference between 75 and 68 wins as far as ticket sales would go. Two things ultimately draw fans, winning or exciting young players. I would go for the second option, dump the vets, get whatever prospects possible, call up the kids, and let the excitement grow organically.

[drjim]

It's hard to see anybody getting very excited about what the Twins could probably get for Suzuki. He's had a nice little run, but most teams won't overpay for a guy who's almost 31 and likely to regress.

 

If they don't move him it's not the end of the franchise. But if the Twins keep running him out there for two or three years while Pinto rots in AAA and they wait and hope for one of two long shots to develop into a good MLB catcher, well, that sounds like planned mediocrity, which unfortunately has a high probability of success.

 

I think he legitimately gets a B prospect right now, which is a nice return for a fa signed to a one year deal. Twins comparable would be Thorpe, Rosario or Polanco.