Org needs and Trade targets

[diehardtwinsfan]

Great thread, folks.

 

After all of this analysis about who the Twins might trade, I am wondering if Stringer or anyone else might want to open a thread about what the Twins should be looking for in their trades. Personally, I would like to see a catcher with a high ceiling who could be ready to come up within 2 or 3 years. I like Pinto, but would like to see another strong option.

 

 

Glunn's request was reasonable enough, and I think he hit the nail on the head right now with need. I'll hold off on naming names just yet, but that's largely due to the fact that no one really knows who will be buyers and sellers. Where it stands presently, the org is strong from a long term standpoint in pitching, CF, and even up the middle with some pretty interesting prospects in both the low and high minors.

 

1) Probably the biggest org need right now is upside at C, unless you think Mitch Garver is the answer there, and it's needed in both the low and high minors. Garver has done pretty well in Cedar Rapids and could be knocking on the door in 3 years if his development goes without a hitch, but he's a college guy doing well in Cedar Rapids, so he's far from a sure thing. I'd go a step further and target one that's a bit closer to the show. Even if Pinto is the starter next season, a starting catcher will at most play 100 games behind the plate. If the Twins had another high upside C whose bat could stick elsewhere, I could potentially see a nice platoon here (though Gardy's weird DH quirk comes back into play). That said, having 2 good catchers, especially if they platoon naturally would be very beneficial to the team. The problem with a high ceiling catcher that's close is that those types of prospects tend to be expensive.

 

2) Looking at the system, they don't have a lot of impact corner OFs in the high minors. The closest high upside guy beyond the obvious is Walker, and he's got a few question marks of his own. The team's OF of the future right now reasonably consists of Buxton, Hicks, Arcia, and possibly the enigma known as Rosario. While I think Buxton and Arcia will be fine, I suspect that Hicks' value (if he can recover it) is going to be at CF (and traded). Same with Rosario but as a CF or 2B. It's possible that a guy like Plouffe or Parmelee ends up sliding over there, as both are going to be squeezed out of positions at some point within the next couple of years, but both still have some question marks. Additional depth here would be nice, and I'd add is much easier to acquire, whether that be through FA or through trade.

 

3) While the org is doing well here, there's an adage that says you can never have enough starting pitching. This is the case here. High ceiling starting pitching is the currency for future trades, so if there's no room, they guy can be moved. I'd probably target high ceiling low A type guys for a move here. They are cheaper than ones closer to the show, and the Twins have plenty of high upside close to MLB. Adding someone who doesn't need to be on the 40 for a few years and needs some development, but could eventually be a high ceiling starter would be helpful if the Twins decided to operate more on a TB/OAK philosophy and consider trading some of their high upside guys as they near FA. This also makes sense if locking them up isn't going to happen. Additionally, the Twins will probably not be drafting in the top 10 by 2016, so getting one of these guys in the draft will be increasingly difficult. Given that the flameout rates are pretty high at this level, these guys can be had a bit cheaper than their high minors counterparts, but they also pair well with some of the Twins own prospects in this area such as Stewart, Gonsalves, and Thorpe.

 

4) Low minors middle infield/CF help. Up the middle guys tend to be currency, and you can never have enough of them. While the Twins are pretty strong in both areas presently, this represents another area that can be stock piled and moved to fill positions of need as they open up. I'd target low minors, high ceiling guys that need development. Historically, the Twins have done this better with CF then middle infield, so putting some emphasis there would be smarter, but either option would be a good get.

[Thrylos]

1) Probably the biggest org need right now is upside at C, unless you think Mitch Garver is the answer there, and it's needed in both the low and high minors. Garver has done pretty well in Cedar Rapids and could be knocking on the door in 3 years if his development goes without a hitch, but he's a college guy doing well in Cedar Rapids, so he's far from a sure thing. I'd go a step further and target one that's a bit closer to the show. Even if Pinto is the starter next season, a starting catcher will at most play 100 games behind the plate. If the Twins had another high upside C whose bat could stick elsewhere, I could potentially see a nice platoon here (though Gardy's weird DH quirk comes back into play). That said, having 2 good catchers, especially if they platoon naturally would be very beneficial to the team. The problem with a high ceiling catcher that's close is that those types of prospects tend to be expensive.

 

I'd copy and paste it here too, with a few additions, since I did not see that this became a thread on its own...

 

Here is the state of the Twins' organization catching prospects:

 

Mitch Garver is in the 3 year range ans is more advanced than both Pinto and Ramos were at that level, IMO.

Matt Koch might be ready in the 2 year range, but his bat took a step back at New Britain this season. Defensively he is solid.

And let's not forget the guy who used to be the top catching prospect for the Twins when Ramos was traded, was ranked as the top defensive catcher in the organization by BA a few years ago and is currently hitting .327/.397/.523 in AAA. Still cannot believe that Fryer is in the majors instead of Chris Herrmann. Add players like Steward Turner, Brian Navaretto, Alex Swim and a 17 year old kid with a ton of potential at the DSL, named Robert Molina (not related to the Molina brothers, but discovered by the same scout that discovered Wilson Ramon and Josmil Pinto) and you will find that the Twins' organization is loaded with Catcher talent. Not a top 50-100 overall prospect yet, but loaded.

 

If I were to pin point the single most position of need in the Twins' organization, it would be (by far) LHSP. There one guy with the potential to be a number 3 in a competitive team (Stephen Gonsalves) About time to accept that Deron Johnson's gamble to try to turn top college relievers to starters failed and start feeding that pipeline. Other than that, I cannot see many needs in particular positions, and the Twins should go talent first in trades...

[Mike Sixel]

Corner OF and DH. They are void of those, or they would be up here already.

[Pitz]

There one guy with the potential to be a number 3 in a competitive team (Stephen Gonsalves).

 

Lewis Thorpe?

[beckmt]

Let's not forget Nate Roberts who has been injured most of the past 2 years and is at Fort Myers at this time. Still best upside players available should be targeted and most of those that can be had are in the A range ball at this time. Not sure things, but best guesses, you can never have enough talent.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd copy and paste it here too, with a few additions, since I did not see that this became a thread on its own...

 

Here is the state of the Twins' organization catching prospects:

 

Mitch Garver is in the 3 year range ans is more advanced than both Pinto and Ramos were at that level, IMO.

Matt Koch might be ready in the 2 year range, but his bat took a step back at New Britain this season. Defensively he is solid.

And let's not forget the guy who used to be the top catching prospect for the Twins when Ramos was traded, was ranked as the top defensive catcher in the organization by BA a few years ago and is currently hitting .327/.397/.523 in AAA. Still cannot believe that Fryer is in the majors instead of Chris Herrmann. Add players like Steward Turner, Brian Navaretto, Alex Swim and a 17 year old kid with a ton of potential at the DSL, named Robert Molina (not related to the Molina brothers, but discovered by the same scout that discovered Wilson Ramon and Josmil Pinto) and you will find that the Twins' organization is loaded with Catcher talent. Not a top 50-100 overall prospect yet, but loaded.

 

If I were to pin point the single most position of need in the Twins' organization, it would be (by far) LHSP. There one guy with the potential to be a number 3 in a competitive team (Stephen Gonsalves) About time to accept that Deron Johnson's gamble to try to turn top college relievers to starters failed and start feeding that pipeline. Other than that, I cannot see many needs in particular positions, and the Twins should go talent first in trades...

 

I won't argue with you on depth, but there's a lack of upside there too. I think you and I both agree that Garver is probably the best bet there, but he's got a lot of question marks, which is why you won't see him on any top 10 lists for the org. You probably wont' see him on many top 20 lists either. I think a high upside guy here to pair with Pinto makes a lot of sense from a trade target standpoint. The org is pretty deep with those at other positions... not as much here.

[drivlikejehu]

Garver is barely a prospect at all, which is why the Twins are letting him hang around in Lo-A.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I can't argue with you folks on evaluations, since I've never spoken to or laid eyes on most or any of these guys. If our system is as strong as people say, I wouldn't worry about upside at catcher.

 

Would a good idea for next year be to let Pinto and Herrmann just split time and see who emerges? They are no longer prospect age.

[ScottyB]

Corner OF and DH. They are void of those, or they would be up here already.

 

DH Vargas?

[gunnarthor]

Baltimore seems to line up pretty well for need with us. They lost Wieters and Jacobs, their current catcher, has a 53 OPS+. Schoop, their second baseman, has a .261 OBP and 64 OPS+. LF is a mess - former Twins castoffs Steve Pearce and Delmon Young are getting playing time out there. They have a strong pen but Perkins would still be a huge upgrade. Their starters are struggling yet they are still in 1st place.

 

They are loaded with pitching prospects - Bundy is the obvious crown jewel but Hunter Harvey isn't far behind and LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is intriguing. According to the leaked Astros trade data, Duquette wasn't willing to move Bundy for Norris but didn't immediately rule out Gausman (although he obviously did later) for Norris. So maybe he's more willing to move top prospects while in "win-now" mode.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

With NY, Boston and Tampa Bay all having down years, there might be no better time for Baltimore to "go for it" this year.

[Brandon]

I think there is lots of upside for Stuart Turner. He is said to be ready for the majors defensively now so the question with him is more the development of his bat to be good enough to play. We should all reset our expectations of how we expect our catchers to hit here as we have been spoiled for a long time here with Brian Harper, (then an admitted void), Pierzinski, Mauer, Pinto and Suzuki. I think Stuart has the potential to hit .240 to .260 with 8-15 HRs around .700 OPS. not great but acceptable with above average defense.

 

But if we are trading for prospects we should trade for the best one available despite organizational need because until they are established in the majors, there is still a chance they will not be able to make the adjustment to get to the next level.

[glunn]

Glunn's request was reasonable enough, and I think he hit the nail on the head right now with need. I'll hold off on naming names just yet, but that's largely due to the fact that no one really knows who will be buyers and sellers. Where it stands presently, the org is strong from a long term standpoint in pitching, CF, and even up the middle with some pretty interesting prospects in both the low and high minors.

 

1) Probably the biggest org need right now is upside at C, unless you think Mitch Garver is the answer there, and it's needed in both the low and high minors. Garver has done pretty well in Cedar Rapids and could be knocking on the door in 3 years if his development goes without a hitch, but he's a college guy doing well in Cedar Rapids, so he's far from a sure thing. I'd go a step further and target one that's a bit closer to the show. Even if Pinto is the starter next season, a starting catcher will at most play 100 games behind the plate. If the Twins had another high upside C whose bat could stick elsewhere, I could potentially see a nice platoon here (though Gardy's weird DH quirk comes back into play). That said, having 2 good catchers, especially if they platoon naturally would be very beneficial to the team. The problem with a high ceiling catcher that's close is that those types of prospects tend to be expensive.

 

2) Looking at the system, they don't have a lot of impact corner OFs in the high minors. The closest high upside guy beyond the obvious is Walker, and he's got a few question marks of his own. The team's OF of the future right now reasonably consists of Buxton, Hicks, Arcia, and possibly the enigma known as Rosario. While I think Buxton and Arcia will be fine, I suspect that Hicks' value (if he can recover it) is going to be at CF (and traded). Same with Rosario but as a CF or 2B. It's possible that a guy like Plouffe or Parmelee ends up sliding over there, as both are going to be squeezed out of positions at some point within the next couple of years, but both still have some question marks. Additional depth here would be nice, and I'd add is much easier to acquire, whether that be through FA or through trade.

 

3) While the org is doing well here, there's an adage that says you can never have enough starting pitching. This is the case here. High ceiling starting pitching is the currency for future trades, so if there's no room, they guy can be moved. I'd probably target high ceiling low A type guys for a move here. They are cheaper than ones closer to the show, and the Twins have plenty of high upside close to MLB. Adding someone who doesn't need to be on the 40 for a few years and needs some development, but could eventually be a high ceiling starter would be helpful if the Twins decided to operate more on a TB/OAK philosophy and consider trading some of their high upside guys as they near FA. This also makes sense if locking them up isn't going to happen. Additionally, the Twins will probably not be drafting in the top 10 by 2016, so getting one of these guys in the draft will be increasingly difficult. Given that the flameout rates are pretty high at this level, these guys can be had a bit cheaper than their high minors counterparts, but they also pair well with some of the Twins own prospects in this area such as Stewart, Gonsalves, and Thorpe.

 

4) Low minors middle infield/CF help. Up the middle guys tend to be currency, and you can never have enough of them. While the Twins are pretty strong in both areas presently, this represents another area that can be stock piled and moved to fill positions of need as they open up. I'd target low minors, high ceiling guys that need development. Historically, the Twins have done this better with CF then middle infield, so putting some emphasis there would be smarter, but either option would be a good get.

 

Thanks for making my dream come true. I really enjoyed reading this and look forward to the responses.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Baltimore is pretty pitching heavy and does match up rather well. Quite a few names on their top 20 list that would slot well here. I doubt Gausman or Bundy would be available, though Bundy is a recovering TJS guy. Schoop has been pretty bad at the majors, but his minor league pedigree indicates he may have been pushed a bit too quick. Ohlman might be a decent buy low candidate if the Twins think his A/A+ numbers are for real. He's struggled in AA, but was pretty good in low A.

[curt1965]

It appears to me that the organization has a big hole at 3rd base. I'm not sure that Plouffe is the answer, but look what happened when he went down. The Twins did not show any confidence in Romero then, and although I'm excited as everyone when Sano gets here, I don't think he'll be playing there for 10 years (1B or OF, IMHO). No one in New Britian, Fort Meyers, or Cedar Rapids appear to be the answer. Big concern there!

[Jim H]

It appears to me that the organization has a big hole at 3rd base. I'm not sure that Plouffe is the answer, but look what happened when he went down. The Twins did not show any confidence in Romero then, and although I'm excited as everyone when Sano gets here, I don't think he'll be playing there for 10 years (1B or OF, IMHO). No one in New Britian, Fort Meyers, or Cedar Rapids appear to be the answer. Big concern there!

 

This could be true. The most interesting prospects, reasonably close to the majors, could be Goodrum or Harrison. Goodrum's bat isn't there yet, Harrison may not be a 3B, and his power hasn't developed yet either. Otherwise you have to look at very young guys or perhaps someone like Polanco. That is assuming you don't consider either Plouffe or Sano as likely long term options at 3B.

 

Thrylos' idea that LHSP as the organization's biggest weakness could be true as well. I like Darnell but I am not sure he will stick as a major league starter, though I think he will get that chance. After that the most interesting LH starters are pretty young. I wouldn't entirely rule out Rodgers who is at AA, and is putting up nice numbers.

 

I think catcher may yield some guys who will play in the majors. Whether anyone including Pinto can provide both solid defense and enough bat to be a major league starter, is pretty much still up in the air.

 

I would like to see some of the lower level OF guys take a step up in the year or so. Otherwise there doesn't seem to much behind Buxton, Arcia and maybe Rosario, unless Hicks figures some things out.

 

I don't know if any of these "holes" will be filled in any possible trades of current vets. I don't think the Twins have anyone that will yield a high level, near major league ready prospect, unless Perkins or Dozier is traded. That isn't going to happen. I don't see the Twins trading them or someone like Arcia or even Plouffe at this time.

[Thrylos]

Lewis Thorpe?

 

I don't think so. I think that he is more like a back of the rotation guy (in a competitive team) IMO

[stringer bell]

I understand the Stuart Turner is supposed to be an elite defensive catcher. He is a high draft choice (3rd round) and is playing in a notorious pitcher's league and doing OK. I would love to have a plus defensive catcher, with some power. I think Turner can be that.

 

Regarding third base, Harrison has real good power and projects to be OK in other facets of his game. They are trying him at corner OF and 1B in Ft. Myers, but he has been a third baseman up to now. If Sano flopped or came down with a career-threatening injury, I think they would move him back to third.

[DocBauer]

At the risk of repeating myself from the previous thread, I'm with Thrylos on organizational C depth. The best are a season or two away at least, but I really like the options available. Also repeating myself, I still like Herrman a lot as well. And I think others would like him better as well, were he allowed to just play for a while instead of getting jerked up and down so much between the majors and AAA the past two years.

 

Big believer in a corner OF to replace Willingham, but that will almost assuredly be from FA as nobody really on the block could bring us much in this area unless we included a nice prospect or top prospect, and I'm not ready to do that.

 

BUT, while I can't name names, I wonder if there is a solid CF option out there stuck behind someone else on the bench, or stuck in AAA just waiting for that next opportunity. Sort of, someone else's version of Hicks for example. While waiting for Buxton, slowed this year in his development time, we need another option for 2015 at least, with the possible competition of Rosario, Hicks and even Santana as possibles, who could make a nice 4th OF if/when someone else takes the job away.

 

Right now, if we find trade value, that's what I'd be looking for.

[Kwak]

The Twins need upgrades across the board. Target a specific individual? IDK any players to target. IMO, it makes sense to look for two types of players, unfortunately the same as everybody else, power hitters and starting pitching. Selecting for a specific position is overspecifyiing. I guess, this season's experiment with "guys who have won before" must run its course before facts are faced. But the development of "prospects" needs to be accelerated in order to challenge them and force them to play outside of their comfort zone. There will always be "the Hicks-es" but it is better to discover them early rather than later.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It appears to me that the organization has a big hole at 3rd base. I'm not sure that Plouffe is the answer, but look what happened when he went down. The Twins did not show any confidence in Romero then, and although I'm excited as everyone when Sano gets here, I don't think he'll be playing there for 10 years (1B or OF, IMHO). No one in New Britian, Fort Meyers, or Cedar Rapids appear to be the answer. Big concern there!

 

Sano is the 3B of the future. He may not stick there for long but he'll last at least a season or two, probably more like 4-5 seasons.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

At the risk of repeating myself from the previous thread, I'm with Thrylos on organizational C depth. The best are a season or two away at least, but I really like the options available. Also repeating myself, I still like Herrman a lot as well. And I think others would like him better as well, were he allowed to just play for a while instead of getting jerked up and down so much between the majors and AAA the past two years.

 

Big believer in a corner OF to replace Willingham, but that will almost assuredly be from FA as nobody really on the block could bring us much in this area unless we included a nice prospect or top prospect, and I'm not ready to do that.

 

BUT, while I can't name names, I wonder if there is a solid CF option out there stuck behind someone else on the bench, or stuck in AAA just waiting for that next opportunity. Sort of, someone else's version of Hicks for example. While waiting for Buxton, slowed this year in his development time, we need another option for 2015 at least, with the possible competition of Rosario, Hicks and even Santana as possibles, who could make a nice 4th OF if/when someone else takes the job away.

 

Right now, if we find trade value, that's what I'd be looking for.

So Hermann is getting Parmeleed? Maybe.... It would be nice if Hermann became The Guy to take over behind Mauer, but he's not being treated like a catcher. Of course until Mauer went on the DL, Parms hasn't been treated like 1b either.

 

i have my concerns with CF too. It seems like Buxton is it, that's a lot of eggs in one basket considering how far Hicks' stock has fallen.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Sano is the 3B of the future. He may not stick there for long but he'll last at least a season or two, probably more like 4-5 seasons.

I dunno... I haven't seen him throw post TJ. He might be the future 1b or DH.

[Thrylos]

I dunno... I haven't seen him throw post TJ. He might be the future 1b or DH.

 

Or big corner OF

 

A couple of other names that have to be added to the 3B/cOF/1B equation, in addition to Sano and Harrison: Amaurys Minier & Niko Goodrum. Minier is the best prospect of the two and looks pretty good after shoulder surgery (he is ripping the GCL apart as an 18 year old. Power has not returned yet, but contact is very good and his selectivity is improving a lot.) He is Sano Jr. and will crack top 10 prospect lists sooner than later. Goodrum has made a full time transition to third at the FSL and he has responded at least on paper. Will be in FL this week and will try to see at least a couple of Miracle and GCL Twins' games to see more of these guys (and the rest of the prospects,) but I think they should not be ignored.

 

The other thing that needs to be mentioned is that one does not need stars in every position. In '87 the Twins won with Lombardozzi at second and Laudner at catcher...

[DocBauer]

Yes, Herrmann is definitely being Partnered. Now, how good Herrmann can ultimately be is debatable.And BA may be fan's bible, but their opinion is not gospel. Still, they have thought enough of him to vote him top defensive C in the system. I like the hitting potential. Just needs to play.

 

Yes, I suppose you could say that Buxton is the lone egg in the C.F. basket at this time, but it's a beck of a basket! Not worried about him, just frustrated at his development slowing injury this season. I just don't think you can count on him for 2015, at least not early or for the bulk of the year. Rosario has also been slowed, but could yet be an option for 2015 before moving to LF. Hicks? Not banking on him at this point. Santana? Maybe. The physical tools are there. Maybe a short term or fill in option. FA or trade, we need a decent short term option.

[DocBauer]

Forget shaking off rust in general, pure arm strength might take a little time to come back fully. But if reports in his arm strength are accurate, losing a bit, short term or not, shouldn't preclude his still being a quality 3B. Romero is no Sano but should have gotten a shot a few weeks ago. Still think its way too early to move Harrison off 3B andI have a problem with that move. Goodrum, I believe, should still be looked at at SS, but I have to say he could be an interesting option at 3B. I doubt he'd ever develop real power, but if he can fill out his frame more, he has the potential for decent XB power with some HR projection to go along with speed and defense.

[Kwak]

Sano was "converted" to 3B and wasn't "buttah" there. Add the recent struggles of other "can't miss" Twins' rookies and engraving Sano into the line at 3B is too much. In fact, Sano might be the infield version of Arcia. Time will tell. Dry powder in storage and quality "options" at 3D are needed.

[DocBauer]

Apologies for some butchering in past couple or posts. Typing from my smart phone and its not as smart as its supposed to be.

 

Yes, Sano was moved to 3B, but from SS if you remember. This is not an OF, 1B or C trying to be forced to the hot corner, but an athletic big man who outgrew his previous position. No stats, but I bet you'd find a large number of 3B are converts to the position.

 

Despite some error problems, which always have to be taken with doses of salt, particularly in the lower minors, reports are of good work ethic, strong arm, hands and positioning getting better all the time. In fact, I have yet to read a single report that says he cant play at least OK at 3B. At least initially.

 

Yes, we could have more depth. Which is why I oppose moving Harrison off 3B so early. But with Plouffe and Sano, 3B should be solid for the next few years. Goodrum and Miner have a shot to do something in the lower levels.It wouldn't hurt to find a solid/top prospect in the next draft however. But on the trade front, not needed.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It appears to me that the organization has a big hole at 3rd base. I'm not sure that Plouffe is the answer, but look what happened when he went down. The Twins did not show any confidence in Romero then, and although I'm excited as everyone when Sano gets here, I don't think he'll be playing there for 10 years (1B or OF, IMHO). No one in New Britian, Fort Meyers, or Cedar Rapids appear to be the answer. Big concern there!

 

Yeah, I didn't look that closely at it with Sano there. Harrison is not a bad prospect either, but he's definitely pretty raw... Another high upside 3B would help the system out.

[stringer bell]

I think Buxton and Sano are different from prospects that have come up to the Twins in the last decade. Both have the talent to be the best at their position and to be perennial All-Stars. Will they? Who knows? I talked to a scout about Buxton a year ago and he was certain he was going to be great, not good. Health could derail him, but I don't think anything else can. Sano, I am not as sure about, but he has great bat speed and maximum power. Sometime next year, he will be the Twins' third baseman and I hope he makes enough contact.