Mid Season: Time to Examine 2015 Rotation

[laloesch]

Clearly the best scenario now would be if May or Meyer come up in the second half and put no doubt in the front office's mind that they will be a member of this rotation come 2015. If both of them could do it, the Twins have a real nice problem on their hands trying to find rotation spots for everyone.

 

For a couple of years the Tigers were rumored to be open to moving Rick Porcello, as he was once a highly thought of prospect who the team barely had room for in the rotation. They never pulled the trigger, but I'll bet the Twins have the same situation with Kyle Gibson if May, Meyer and Berrios are all options by some point in 2015.

 

Agreed. Until the oblique pull injury, May was next in line to be called up (after the Futures game). In fact I still think he gets the call in August pending how long it takes him to recover from that injury, which isn't serious by the way.

 

Not so sure about Meyer though. Alex is under a strict innings limit this season and could be shutdown in late August. I just don't see the Twins calling him up this year given the limits and options in AAA (Johnson, Darnell and GilMartin).

 

At this point with the season all but lost, I DO see the Twins possibly dumping Willingham and Correia for prospects which opens up another slot in the rotation. Given the Nolasco injury the rotation will see new faces soon.

 

Hughes

Gibson

Pino / Deduno? (have not completely given up on Deduno yet)

Darnell

Johnson / May (when he returns from DL)

 

 

Both Berrios and Meyer will be challenging for major league callups at some point next season, just my opinion.

[Brandon]

Here's an interesting story in the making going on right now for a starter for next year. Pino was 1 out away from a quality start 2 starts ago when he gave up a hit and the 4th run. that out would have him with 3 quality starts out of 4 starts. something to build on.... Yes I know he is 2 out of 4 in quality starts but if he continues to show he belongs then..... we could have the next Bob Tewksbury on our hands.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here's an interesting story in the making going on right now for a starter for next year. Pino was 1 out away from a quality start 2 starts ago when he gave up a hit and the 4th run. that out would have him with 3 quality starts out of 4 starts. something to build on.... Yes I know he is 2 out of 4 in quality starts but if he continues to show he belongs then..... we could have the next Bob Tewksbury on our hands.

 

How soon we forget that PJ Walters started his Twins career with 4 straight quality starts (including a CG).

 

This is the kind of thinking that got us into rotation trouble in 2012-2013. Pino should not be part of 2015 rotation planning at all, except on the fringes as potential depth out of AAA or the pen.

[tobi0040]

This meme is really getting ridiculous. Gardy has had a bunch of young rotations and plays lots of young players in key situations. Cripes, down the stretch in 06, he was relying on Boof and Mijares probably more than he was on anyone else. He gave Baker 48 starts thru his age 25 season, Slowey got 54. Lohse 114. In 08, 139 starts were by players 26 and under. In 09, 150 by players 27 and under. And, except for the 32 starts he gave Panano in 10, every start was by someone 28 and under. He plays the guys the FO gives him.

 

I think this line of thought has a lot of merit.

 

Gardy loves his veterans and it seems like our GM goes out each year and supplies him with at least one veteran pitcher. The best $5M he can spend on the free agent market. I am guessing they do this because they feel better with one veteran. Outside of Pavano and one year of Correia, this strategy does not appear to make sense and in almost every case a rookie could put up similar numbers.

 

2007 - Ramon Ortiz 5.14 ERA and Sidney Ponson 6.03 ERA. I don't think either finished the year here

 

2008 - Livan Hernandez - 5.48 ERA here, did not finish the year.

 

2009 - RA Dickey 4.62 ERA

 

2010 and 2011 - Carl Pavano 3.75 ERA and 4.30 ERA

 

2012 - Jason Marquis 8.47 ERA, did not finish the year

 

2013 and 2014 - Mike Pelfrey (5.19 and 7.99) and Kevin Correia (4.18 ERA and 4.79 ERA)

 

It appears to me it is not out of the question that Pelfrey starts out next year in the rotation, which would not be based on talent or upside. If Nolsaso needs TJ or is battling another major injury, it would seem more likely in my opinion that Pelfrey starts out the year here and then is DFA'd after management gets sick of him

[ericchri]

Pelfrey seems like he should be in the bullpen next year, to me, assuming he's even healthy. Before he was signed we had Hughes, Nolasco, and Correia guaranteed in the rotation, needing to fill two spots with a choice of Deduno (decent numbers, inability to pitch deep into games due to high pitch counts), Diamond (pretty bad in 2013), Worley (awful in 2013), Gibson (decent AAA, terrible MLB), May (mediocre in AA, hadn't even pitched at AAA), Meyer (hadn't pitched above AA, missed much of 2013 with shoulder injury) and Kris Johnson (all of 4 games and 1 start in MLB previous). Not hard to see why he felt the need to find another pitcher even if most of us feel Pelfrey for 2 years was the wrong answer.

 

Going into next season we should theoretically have Nolasco, Hughes, and Gibson guaranteed, so again needing to fill 2 spots, but with options from May and Meyer (who hopefully get their callup this year so that there actually aren't even openings next year), Logan Darnell and Kris Johnson (who both look adequate with slight hopes for a bit better), Deduno and Pino (not exciting but capable of starting games with a modicum of competence) and maybe Gilmartin as a wildcard, and maybe even Berrios looking like a midseason possibility. Pelfrey doesn't serve any purpose anymore because the options to fill those last rotation spots look better. Put him in the bullpen where he can throw his hittable fastball a little bit faster and not stretch a 3 hour game into a 3.5 hour game.

 

So naturally he'll be in the rotation next year, of course.

[gunnarthor]

I think this line of thought has a lot of merit.

 

Gardy loves his veterans and it seems like our GM goes out each year and supplies him with at least one veteran pitcher. The best $5M he can spend on the free agent market. I am guessing they do this because they feel better with one veteran. Outside of Pavano and one year of Correia, this strategy does not appear to make sense and in almost every case a rookie could put up similar numbers.

 

2007 - Ramon Ortiz 5.14 ERA and Sidney Ponson 6.03 ERA. I don't think either finished the year here

 

2008 - Livan Hernandez - 5.48 ERA here, did not finish the year.

 

2009 - RA Dickey 4.62 ERA

 

2010 and 2011 - Carl Pavano 3.75 ERA and 4.30 ERA

 

2012 - Jason Marquis 8.47 ERA, did not finish the year

 

2013 and 2014 - Mike Pelfrey (5.19 and 7.99) and Kevin Correia (4.18 ERA and 4.79 ERA)

 

It appears to me it is not out of the question that Pelfrey starts out next year in the rotation, which would not be based on talent or upside. If Nolsaso needs TJ or is battling another major injury, it would seem more likely in my opinion that Pelfrey starts out the year here and then is DFA'd after management gets sick of him

I find it hard to go from Ramon Ortiz got 10 starts = Gardy loves veteran pitchers. The reality of baseball rotations means that every season you're probably going to have 10 or more guys make a start. They had 8 players last year and 9 the year before that make at least 10 starts each season. So to get that depth there is always going to be some old vet to be got for a million or two. But when 70% of your starts are coming from 27 and younger home grown pitchers, it's tough to say that Gardy is giving starts to old vets.

[Dave T]

I don't see any more FA pitcher signings. The only way the Twins add a veteran starter is by trading one of our projected 2015 starters -- there is already going to be a log jam. For example, Berrios is the real deal, and if he burns up AAA like he's been doing in the lower minors, we will all be clamoring for him to get promoted next summer. For another example, Pelfrey was once a really good pitcher, and might win a starting job out of spring training.

[tobi0040]

I find it hard to go from Ramon Ortiz got 10 starts = Gardy loves veteran pitchers. The reality of baseball rotations means that every season you're probably going to have 10 or more guys make a start. They had 8 players last year and 9 the year before that make at least 10 starts each season. So to get that depth there is always going to be some old vet to be got for a million or two. But when 70% of your starts are coming from 27 and younger home grown pitchers, it's tough to say that Gardy is giving starts to old vets.

 

My point is this, we start out every season with at least one spot in the rotation set aside for a veteran starting pitcher. Historically signs for $3-$5M a year, i.e. not a good one. The fact that a majority of the starts end up going to young pitchers is proving my point, that in almost every case the 3-5M is wasted and we would have been better off not signing the guy.

 

I would not be shocked if Pelfrey starts out 2015 on scholarship, just like he started 2013 and 2014 on scholarship because it makes the FO and Gardy more comfortable, not because he is one of the best 5 pitchers. I would be shocked if he was on the team by the end of the year. The odds of this happening increases if Nolasco needs TJ, not because Peflrey is then a top 5 pitcher, because we have fewer vets around.

 

I would go out on a limb as well and say it is a generally accepted thought on these boards that Gardy favors veterans and it is not limited to just Ramon Ortiz.

[gunnarthor]

I would go out on a limb as well and say it is a generally accepted thought on these boards that Gardy favors veterans and it is not limited to just Ramon Ortiz.

Maybe, but it doesn't it mean it's correct. My guess is that a bunch of people on these boards think Gardy didn't like Slowey b/c he "hates smart people". A look at most of his rosters show that he has often played younger players - in key roles - than is believed.

 

The fact that the team might give a spot to a vet out of ST instead of a young guy with options isn't surprising or that unusual. It happens all around baseball. If you end up needing 10 starters, you aren't going to be able to stash a vet in the minors.

[tobi0040]

Maybe, but it doesn't it mean it's correct. My guess is that a bunch of people on these boards think Gardy didn't like Slowey b/c he "hates smart people". A look at most of his rosters show that he has often played younger players - in key roles - than is believed.

 

The fact that the team might give a spot to a vet out of ST instead of a young guy with options isn't surprising or that unusual. It happens all around baseball. If you end up needing 10 starters, you aren't going to be able to stash a vet in the minors.

 

I buy into the Gardy favoring veterans line of thought. 1-2 veteran pitchers without much talent per year. The likes of Guerrier, Kubel, and Bartlett to name a few just this year.

[oldguy10]

That is an awful rotation for next year and will probably mean instead of losing 90+ games they will probably only hit 85 to 87, the drought continues then, not acceptable to me nor should it be to any other fans as well.

[ashbury]

Agreed. Until the oblique pull injury, May was next in line to be called up

 

May's problem is the calf, isn't it, and Mauer's the one with the oblique?

[ashbury]

I buy into the Gardy favoring veterans line of thought. 1-2 veteran pitchers without much talent per year. The likes of Guerrier, Kubel, and Bartlett to name a few just this year.

 

I agree, Kubes and JBart are pretty talentless at pitching.

[DocBauer]

Thus far, Nolasco's injury is aggravating but not serious. Great news! And explains his poor performance thus far. This gives a 3 SP lock of Nolasco, Hughes and Gibson next season. Two spots to fill, just as we were when this thread began.

 

Comments made, spurred somewhat by myself, about a possible FA signing or trade next season. Speculation about the kids, Pelfrey, and also's such as Pino and Deduno.

 

For a moment, just assume we all get what we want and hope, and May is up soon. He may not set the world on fire, he may not be perfect, but the talent and potential show. He's solid, not on a pitch count like Meyer is, and shows at least enough to believe he can and should be part of the rotation plans for 2015.

 

No matter how much we love Berrios, it's a huge stretch to believe he'll be ready for anything more than a mid-season call up. Could Meyer, even with pitch and innings limits do a Gibson and crack the rotation next season?

 

All things being said and speculated, are we content to have a wide open audition for the 5th spot? In the long run, is that better than a trade or signing?