An Evenhanded Look at Correia

[stringer bell]

Rand provides strib readers (and us) with a look at what Correia is, which is pretty close to exactly what was expected.

 

http://blog.startribune.com/sports/randball/thursday-kevin-correia-has-been-as-advertised-edition-wha-happened

[AlwaysinModeration]

If you aim for mediocrity, you have a pretty good chance at being successful.

[old nurse]

Every team needs a fifth starter. Correia fits the bill.

Consider the 2012 starts of PJ Walters, Vasquez, Swarzak and Duensing. Maybe Correia looks better than another season of that. The real sad part was at the time of Corria's signing the Twins needed about three pitchers to head up the rotation

[drivlikejehu]

Typically, injuries, inconsistency, etc. mean that very few if any teams maintain a solid #5 starter. The goal though is always the same - to have as many quality pitchers in the rotation as possible.

 

So while Correia's performance is not necessarily out of line for a 5th starter, the difference is that the Twins embraced his mediocrity knowingly, and for 2 years, rather than as a backup plan.

 

He was really a $2 million/1 year swing guy that should start in the bullpen and move to the rotation only if higher upside options fall out for whatever reason(s). But the Twins miscast him as a reliable #4 starter, which he isn't.

[Jarends703]

I don't think Correia's salary is out of line for what he has provided as far as value to this team. He has become a point of contention over the past two seasons due to the organization's lack of quality pitching prospects along with a lack of willingness to spend on free agent pitching. Both of those areas have been addressed in recent years with trades for prospects and a focus on drafting pitching. Also last offseason saw record contracts (for the Twins) on free agent pitchers.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Sadly, KC is not overpaid... that's what baseball salaries command. The nice thing about the way he's pitching is that there are teams that could use a guy like KC to shore up the bottom of the rotation. I'd much prefer to have 5 better pitchers in the rotation, but in reality that's pretty hard to do. I suspect KC will net a modest return at the deadline... nothing special, but another potential piece, and with Meyer, May, Johnson, and Darnell all looking for time, I think this is good.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I wanted Correia out of the rotation badly six weeks ago but in retrospect, the Twins' patience looks like it's paying off. He has built up a small amount of value for the deadline.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Every team needs a fifth starter. Correia fits the bill.

Consider the 2012 starts of PJ Walters, Vasquez, Swarzak and Duensing. Maybe Correia looks better than another season of that. The real sad part was at the time of Corria's signing the Twins needed about three pitchers to head up the rotation

I think that's where Correia's trade value comes into play. LAA becomes a viable trade partner where a decent 5th starter with no commitment has real value to help them make the playoff push.

 

It's true that Correia was not the type of pitcher we all wanted at the time, but he was a step up from what they had.

 

i think what is also sad, is while this pitching staff is much better than where it was 2-3 years ago, Correia has been as good or better than Deduno, Pelfrey and Nolasco, and there are better or at least better upside options in AAA with Kris Johnson, Alex Meyer, and a healthy Trevor May.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's true that Correia was not the type of pitcher we all wanted at the time, but he was a step up from what they had.

 

The thinking behind the Correia deal wasn't awful.

 

The fact that he was "the guy" they picked up that offseason was, though.

[Kwak]

IDK why everyone is so upset with KC--he is as was advertised--and was available to pitch almost every time it was his turn. After the 2011 season the [Twins] decided that they could lose on a much lower payroll than $110MM--so they brought out the knifes (saws and axes) and started cutting. There was a need to "plug some holes", but only with "cheap" free agents--enter KC. The problem with the pitching staff isn't KC! The problem is with poor drafting, developing, and a committement to "just good enough" in order to satisfy "management goals" and directives.

[Thrylos]

Every team needs a fifth starter. Correia fits the bill.

Consider the 2012 starts of PJ Walters, Vasquez, Swarzak and Duensing. Maybe Correia looks better than another season of that. The real sad part was at the time of Corria's signing the Twins needed about three pitchers to head up the rotation

 

True, if Correia were indeed your fifth starter, but the team entered the 2013 season with Correia penciled as the number two guy. Any team that has Correia penciled to be the number two guy before the season starts, will not go far.

 

Terry Ryan made a decision to get rid of Liriano for 2013 and replace him with Correia for the same money. We know where that went. Compare Liriano's 2013 (and 2014) and Correia's. Not quite as horrible as choosing LeCroy over Ortiz, but in the same ballpark.

 

The fact that Correia is better than the AAA pitchers that Ryan decided he had to get in 2012, or that Gardy and Andy decided to miscast Duensing and Swarzak as starters, does not mean much.

 

We all know what the root of the problem with the Twins has been for the last 20 years or so...

[Brock Beauchamp]

Compare Liriano's 2013 (and 2014) and Correia's. Not quite as horrible as choosing LeCroy over Ortiz, but in the same ballpark.

 

Last year, sure.

 

This season Liriano is an injured, negative WAR player. Kevin Correia, despite his obvious flaws and absolutely awful start, has at least been slightly above replacement level.

[Mike Sixel]

If he is your big move......that is a problem, as Brock said. That is my issue, aiming low.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If he is your big move......that is a problem, as Brock said. That is my issue, aiming low.

It's hard to say whether it was aiming low or settling. Ricky Nolasco, the biggest free agent acquisition in team history, has been worse than KC over the season to date.

 

yeah, it would be nice if TR went out and got the big name blue chip free agent number one type starter. But even that is at best 5 or so additional wins, and it isn't without its risks. I'm not excusing the management, because TR and BS let the pipeline get into the situation it has been in over the last 5 years.

 

a big part of the gamble is spreading the risk out over a larger pool. When you can't mitigate your risk and concentrate it all in one or two free agent investments, you get burned more often. The problem with my investing metaphor is free agents aren't stocks. They may or may not care who their employer is, or what kind of shape the organization is. If I consider myself elite and can to an extent choose where I go, I would probably choose to go to winner before MN. No one likes to lose.

 

Sure, the Twins have signed free agents, but never a blue chip. It might be for lack of trying, it might be for lack of a quality team looking for the last piece of the championship puzzle.

[old nurse]

True, if Correia were indeed your fifth starter, but the team entered the 2013 season with Correia penciled as the number two guy. Any team that has Correia penciled to be the number two guy before the season starts, will not go far.

 

Terry Ryan made a decision to get rid of Liriano for 2013 and replace him with Correia for the same money. We know where that went. Compare Liriano's 2013 (and 2014) and Correia's. Not quite as horrible as choosing LeCroy over Ortiz, but in the same ballpark.

 

The fact that Correia is better than the AAA pitchers that Ryan decided he had to get in 2012, or that Gardy and Andy decided to miscast Duensing and Swarzak as starters, does not mean much.

 

We all know what the root of the problem with the Twins has been for the last 20 years or so...

 

Incremental improvements mean a lot to some people on the board, but it may not mean much to you. To have obtained a frontline starter by trade look at what Gio Gonzales, Garza, Shields, or Samardzija netted in trade. I do not think the Twins had enough near major leaugue ready talent to pull of a trade like that.

Even if DeVries, Worley, Pelfrey and Diamond were healthy last year to go with Correia it was going to be a collection of 4/5 starters. In an evenhanded look, any one if healthy could be viewed as the number 2 starter. Correia turned out to be the healthiest on day 2 of the season. His role was going to be the same regardless of what "spot" in the rotation. Throw 6 innings and keep the game close.

Which Fransico Liriano are you going to get? The 2010 and 2013 version, or the 09.11,12,14 version? Liriano was traded from the Twins, so the Liriano/Correia contract comment seems a little odd to me. I don't think it was one or the other. There was more than enough money and roster space for both of them. LEN had sources say the Twins were interested in bringing back Liriano. Sources can be a tricky thing. IIRC somebody had a source that Scott Baker coming back to the Twins was a done deal. Sources are quoted. It really doesn't mean much at times.

[old nurse]

If he is your big move......that is a problem, as Brock said. That is my issue, aiming low.

 

You can aim high but miss. It takes 2 parties to sign a contract. I do not know what other free agents they went after. The only thing I can be certain of is there was not much high end pitching talent that signed with the Twins for the 2013 season. What happened on the path to that point is conjecture. I would guess that I would have to wait for Ryan to retire to tell the story of "sometimes you can't give your money away". Jesse over at SB had an interview last year with Anony and came away with this quote

 

RA: We made very competitive offers to a couple pitchers, and maybe even better offers than what players signed for. You get into a situation when you're coming off of two 90-plus loss seasons - some pitchers, and to their credit they are looking to land in a place where they'll get a chance to win, and some teams can just offer that and a player will look at it and believe it moreso than when we say "Hey, we're trying to win, too."

[Richie the Rally Goat]

You can aim high but miss. It takes 2 parties to sign a contract. I do not know what other free agents they went after. The only thing I can be certain of is there was not much high end pitching talent that signed with the Twins for the 2013 season. What happened on the path to that point is conjecture. I would guess that I would have to wait for Ryan to retire to tell the story of "sometimes you can't give your money away". Jesse over at SB had an interview last year with Anony and came away with this quote

 

RA: We made very competitive offers to a couple pitchers, and maybe even better offers than what players signed for. You get into a situation when you're coming off of two 90-plus loss seasons - some pitchers, and to their credit they are looking to land in a place where they'll get a chance to win, and some teams can just offer that and a player will look at it and believe it moreso than when we say "Hey, we're trying to win, too."

You said what I meant to, much better than I did, I was tired last night... But the FO can't be let off the hook either. This team started down this road before BS took over, but Smith expedited the process greatly. It was the FO (both Smith and Ryan) who put this team in the position of epic ineptitude in the first place. So the excuse of "free agents won't come here because we suck" means "free agents won't cone here because I [smith/TR] let this team go too long without infusion of fresh and improved talent."

 

what do I mean in context of Correia? That he (or a player like him) would have been far more effective as a medium term contract in 2011 to build off of, and improve upon in 2012-2014. This no slight to Correia. He is what he is, and the Twins are getting what they paid for.

[Mike Sixel]

Players are not stocks because you can only have 25. Every bad player makes it so there is not room for good players. We have seen that roster crunch here for several years now. It is also not the FO job to try to be better, it is their job to bio better. Making failed offers does nothing to help this team. Adding good players to the MLB roster does.

[Lakeside]

Players are not stocks because you can only have 25. Every bad player makes it so there is not room for good players. We have seen that roster crunch here for several years now. It is also not the FO job to try to be better, it is their job to bio better. Making failed offers does nothing to help this team. Adding good players to the MLB roster does.

 

I'm not a huge Kevin Correia fan but it is my opinion that he has done what the FO asked him to do. . .give us a start every 5th day. Last year he was not to be the ace. . that was supposed to be Worley and Diamond. This year he was not to be the ace that was Nolasco followed by Hughes.

 

Ten million - two years was fair and the Twins got what they paid for on the Free Agent market. The key, however, is not having to pay $5M/year for the performance we have had from Correia. . .it would be best if we could get a 4.50 ERA/1.4WHIP from a pre-arbitration guy at less than $500k and then have some big money for some bats that we need. Those $500k guys are Meyer, May, Gibson, etc.

 

IMO far worse than Correia has been the signing of Mike Pelfrey. $11M/Two years after last season's medicore season is beyond me. And, Nolasco has to be figured out to pay off.

 

I'm guessing that Correia will be dealt at the trade deadline for a A or AA player with some potential. In that case he has been a serviceable "rent-a-player" for two years.

[old nurse]

Players are not stocks because you can only have 25. Every bad player makes it so there is not room for good players. We have seen that roster crunch here for several years now. It is also not the FO job to try to be better, it is their job to bio better. Making failed offers does nothing to help this team. Adding good players to the MLB roster does.

 

Almost every player playing poorly for the Twins is very expendable. There is no one blocking a player from being added.

 

There was an effort last year per Antony. There is a concept called you can't always get what you want. You can't accept that. With a limited supply of talent, what were they supposed to do? The rehash after the year showed that there were many pitchers not performing that signed FA contracts. The pitchers they did sign did about what you would expect them to do. It would not be unreasonable to think that they could discern what was a poor pitcher. I don't think it is unreasonable to think they knew they needed better starters. That left trades. Do you really think they could have packaged players together to get a significant pitcher? Their best prospects were in A ball, Arcia and Gibson coming off injury. On the major league side it was Span. Span packaged with Arcia and 1 of the other top 10 prospects might have brought back a decent pitcher. I don't think for a 2 year rental that would have went over too well.

[Mr. Brooks]

Almost every player playing poorly for the Twins is very expendable. There is no one blocking a player from being added.

 

There was an effort last year per Antony. There is a concept called you can't always get what you want. You can't accept that. With a limited supply of talent, what were they supposed to do? The rehash after the year showed that there were many pitchers not performing that signed FA contracts. The pitchers they did sign did about what you would expect them to do. It would not be unreasonable to think that they could discern what was a poor pitcher. I don't think it is unreasonable to think they knew they needed better starters. That left trades. Do you really think they could have packaged players together to get a significant pitcher? Their best prospects were in A ball, Arcia and Gibson coming off injury. On the major league side it was Span. Span packaged with Arcia and 1 of the other top 10 prospects might have brought back a decent pitcher. I don't think for a 2 year rental that would have went over too well.

 

That is a nice theory, but most people have acknowledged that Pelfrey will probably get every possible opportunity at rotation spot next Spring, despite doing absolutely nothing to deserve it. So in practice, bad signings do in fact block potentially better players from being added to the roster.

[big dog]

That is a nice theory, but most people have acknowledged that Pelfrey will probably get every possible opportunity at rotation spot next Spring, despite doing absolutely nothing to deserve it. So in practice, bad signings do in fact block potentially better players from being added to the roster.

 

I'm puzzled by this. Who are the "most people"? Has Ryan said this? If you are referring to TD posters, I'm underwhelmed by your statement, but if Ryan/Anthony/Gardy say this it's important.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm puzzled by this. Who are the "most people"? Has Ryan said this? If you are referring to TD posters, I'm underwhelmed by your statement, but if Ryan/Anthony/Gardy say this it's important.

 

Yes, most people on TD.

If you disagree, then I love your optimism and I get on my hands and knees praying that you are right.

Sadly though, I have a feeling that when next March rolls around Pelfrey will be all but penciled in as a lock for the rotation.

We'll hear about how his arm feels as good as it ever has, he's looked amazing in bullpen sessions, etc., etc.

[big dog]

I'm not sure how optimistic I am. Today, not very much. But I don't think that something is certain to be true just because of some hypothetical poll of TD posters.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm not sure how optimistic I am. Today, not very much. But I don't think that something is certain to be true just because of some hypothetical poll of TD posters.

 

I'm scanning my posts to see where I said anything was certain, and yep, it's not there. I'm quite sure i used the word "probably", and also "I have a feeling". Both, by definition, far from "certain".

[old nurse]

That is a nice theory, but most people have acknowledged that Pelfrey will probably get every possible opportunity at rotation spot next Spring, despite doing absolutely nothing to deserve it. So in practice, bad signings do in fact block potentially better players from being added to the roster.

 

Pelfrey has done nothing the last 3 years, but he has done the work in his career to deserve a shot at making the rotation.

[stringer bell]

We can talk about "no scholarships" and the "best guys make the rotation", but contracts and options are a consideration. Pelfrey is under contract next year, and because of that the Twins are going to give him a shot, if he's healthy. Meyer will have options remaining. Much like Gibson, though, if he's clearly better than the alternatives, he'll get a spot.

[big dog]

I'm scanning my posts to see where I said anything was certain, and yep, it's not there. I'm quite sure i used the word "probably", and also "I have a feeling". Both, by definition, far from "certain".

 

That's true. You only said that in practice, bad signings do in fact etc, and based that on your one example. So you called it a fact. But apparently not a certain one. Whatever.

[Mike Sixel]

Meyer will be 25 next year, options should not be an issue ......

[amjgt]

Last week one of the moderators locked a thread and deemed to be an embarrassment to Twins Daily. I thought that was a bit over the top, but it's their site and they can moderate how they want.

 

I'll be shocked if this thread doesn't get the same treatment.

 

This thread is terrible.