Trade Likelyhoods

[SwainZag]

I think the Twins are in a strong position with Hammer. If he stays healthy, he's a QO candidate and I for one would hope he accepts. He is by far the most productive outfielder in the system, and maybe the most productive batter period.

 

If they can get a haul in trade, great. A comp round pick would be a good outcome too. So they should be very picky about what sort of offers they are willing to entertain IMO.

 

Why even risk paying him $15M in a QO? He will be 36, he has had injury concerns the last two seasons, his defense will just keep dwindling and if they were ever going to get anything for him in a trade, the time is now.

 

This is the type of player you deal at the deadline if you are a team like the Twins.

[Halsey Hall]

I try to keep Suzuki. First one's out to pasture are Plouffe and Nolasco on my list.

[diehardtwinsfan]

You don't dig out from 90 losses by trading your best young players for prospects you hope might be as good one day. We are not the Rays. The Rays = the Twins in the Metrodome. We don't need to trade every young player before they get 'expensive' to compete. Trade guys who are pending FA's, sure. But not Dozier, Santana, Hughes, etc.

 

I can see the argument for trading Perkins. But he just signed an extension with a home town discount. They're not trading him right now. I think he may even have gotten a no-trade for at last the first couple years of the deal.

 

Yeah, I could kind of see Perkins, but that ship sailed last year. With what's coming up through the minors, there's no way Dozier, Santana, and Parmelee (not that he'd net much right now) shoudl be traded. They are all young and under team control for some time. They will pair nicely with Meyer, May, Hughes, Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Pinto, and Mauer.

[drock2190]

To the poster saying sell high on a bunch of players, what does that say to the fans and the organization? I think selling Suzuki would be smart as he hasn't proven to be that great over the years. Dozier has been a good player for over a year and isn't expensive. As for the relievers sure but to trade a player like Dozier with no easy replacement makes no sense. Especially since prospects are a crapshoot

[Rosterman]

The only 'hiccup' I can see with trading or cleaning house...is will it deter players from signing here going forward?

 

I can Willingham or Morales being traded quite easily. Not sure about Suzuki...kinda have a feeling he may want to stay and the Twins may feel the same.

 

I'm fine with listening to any offers on anyone besides Dozier and Hughes.

I don't see that as being a problem. Players in their final contract year or on a one-year contract expect to be traded and like being in a pennant race. They are playing for the next contract. If you traded Nolasco, let's say, that might be a bigger issue.

[DocBauer]

Even if the Twins fall off a cliff, and for the record, I maintain we are a possible .500 team with the potential for a few wins above, not a real playoff contender, I'm not sure we're a selling team per se'.

 

I seriously doubt Suzuki goes anywhere, and it has little to do with his resurgent bat, that will almost assuredly regress next season. And it's not because of his arm or the still early and debatable stat of framing pitches, but rather his experience handling a staff, and the way he has gained the confidence of our staff and coaches. As he has done throughout his career, he has proven the most important quality of being a C, and this is simply the ability to handle a staff. Guys like throwing to him. Even when he hasn't hit well, he's a far better hitter than the likes of a Butera. And he's always made decent contact if nothing else. Despite speculation regarding Pintos future, other than stating he needs some work, nobody with the Twins has ever said anything negative about the kid. They gave him a long audition last season, and while it would have been nice to see him get more starts behind the plate when he was up earlier, the Twins though enough of him to take him north out of ST. I don't know who what the starting splits will be next season, but we need 2 catchers regardless. And I don't know that there's a better option than Suzuki available next off season.

 

I think the Twins have some very good, and some solid/decent C prospects in the minors, but they are all AA and below. I'm one of those who is a Herrman supporter, as a solid and versatile backup, but don't think he's ready just yet. Suzuki will end up re-signing, and it won't cost much.

 

Regardless of how he finishes, this will turn out to be a bit of a lost season for Morales. That in itself may bode well for a possible re-signing by the Twins, assuming he enjoys his time with our favorite team and Target field. He's had a few injuries here and there, but is also only 31, 32 June of next year, and has a career slash of: .277/.329/.473/.802. He switch hits, and can be a consistent 30 doubles and 20 HR guy with 500 AB's. There is no question that Vargas has the potential to be as good or better, but he's also young, still in AA as of now, and a veteran of Morales' ability hitting somewhere in the heart of our lineup would be a real asset until Vargas proves to be ready. Now, Vargas May have some trade value, especially if he heats up. And the Twins could still sign him in the off season if they wish following said trade. But if he enjoys it here, and both parties are interested in continuing the relationship, you have to look at 2 important factors: 1) what kind of return can the Twins really receive if traded? 2) and once you answer point #1, are they better served having his production the rest of this season, and would that also make re-signing him easier?

 

Some of the points made in regard to Morales also applies to Willingham. I don't know that the Twins are interested in bringing him back for 2015. In fact, I believe there may be better options that would serve us better. A strong second half to the season for Hammer vs what might be available next off season has to be correlated, along with what, if anything more than a 6 pack and a bag of balls Hammer might bring in trade this year. To be clear, I do not advocate bringing Willingham back for 2015. But if offers for him are generally worthless, I'd be in favor of letting him play the year out, contribute, and then let him walk, knowing we got all out of him we can, OR, if we strike out on anyone and everyone else to play LF next season, I suppose he could be a fall back option on a 1 year deal. But again, I think it's time to replace him. The question is, is it worth replacing him in July or next off season?

 

Unless Burton continues what he's done the last couple of weeks, and even better, he just isn't going to have any real trade value IMO, unless someone believes and is desperate. I know there are those who don't like Duensing, but by himself, as opposed to part of a package, he doesn't offer enough to trade straight up, unless like Burton, you have a team who believes and is desperate. Now, I like Duensing, and think he's proven to be a pretty solid LH in the pen that a lot of teams would love to enjoy in their pen. But by himself, he's just not dominate or special enough to bring much return solely.

 

Which leaves Correia as the one trade option that might actually bring something in return. Personally, after his performance last season, (peripherals and not W-L), I thought his best value was during ST when it seemed SP's were dropping like flies. SP is always a premium need, and it is almost assured that someone in either league will be looking for one more starter to fill up their rotation for the last couple of months of the season. And truthfully, despite mediocre ability overall, Correia is pitching quite well after a slow start, and a team looking for needed depth, or injury replacement, might be enticed by a solid veteran. I doubt the return would be high, but if the Twins lower their expectations, and accept a talented player in A ball, they might actually gain a decent prospect in a deal.

 

To me, that's it, that's the reality of us as traders at the deadline. One decent trade option, one potentially decent option in Morales that we might be better keeping, and one "meh" option in Willingham.

[beckmt]

Twins need to look and say we will not be competitive until 2017, therefore any players who will not be key contributors by 2017 should be traded if the deal is correct. Dozier is the one player that will bring a big return, Perkins could bring a big haul, but relievers tend not to. Plouffe should be traded if the return is good. Any of the rest of the players are more clear space salary dumps and am more in favor of trading the pitchers rather than the player mentioned above.

[Marta Shearing]

I'd be happy trading any player who's not part of the future. As much as I like Suzuki, Pinto is the future. His defense will be fine. He just needed to catch more than once or twice a week. Suzuki could really fetch some talent in a trade. They'd be crazy not to atleast explore this option.

 

I think Morales is great. In my perfect world they trade Mauer and re-sign Morales to play 1st base, and Vargas can take over at DH. Not that I don't like Mauer, he's just not giving them anywhere near $23 million of production.

[Marta Shearing]

2016:

CF Buxton

2B Dozier

3B Sano

RF Arcia

1B Morales

DH Vargas

C Pinto

LF Rosario

SS Polanco or Santana

 

 

Meyer

May

Berrios

Gibson

Hughes or Nolasco

[joeboo_22]

With the Cubs getting another shortstop, I'd try to figure a way to get Sterlin Castro, if you look at the Twins system, its not exactly there at SS, yeah we have Santana and Polanco and some others, but all of them are flyers. Castro could be a shortstop for the next 5-6 years. I'd try to figure something out

[Mike Sixel]

Um, rebuild do not feature 35 year olds......they need to rebuild.

[glunn]

Great thread, folks.

 

After all of this analysis about who the Twins might trade, I am wondering if Stringer or anyone else might want to open a thread about what the Twins should be looking for in their trades. Personally, I would like to see a catcher with a high ceiling who could be ready to come up within 2 or 3 years. I like Pinto, but would like to see another strong option.

[diehardtwinsfan]

So apparently Addison Russell has been traded to the Cubs for some pitching help. This could potentially set the bar for selling.

[old nurse]

So apparently Addison Russell has been traded to the Cubs for some pitching help. This could potentially set the bar for selling.

 

It sets the bar for what is scarce, above average available pitching. One can hope that a lackey for a GM looks at fangraphs and thinks a big number for -ERA is a good thing. In terms of starting pitching, the Twins do not have much to sell

[Thrylos]

Personally, I would like to see a catcher with a high ceiling who could be ready to come up within 2 or 3 years. I like Pinto, but would like to see another strong option.

 

2-3 years? And you want a catcher with both D and a stick, I suspect...

 

Mitch Garver in the 3 year range might fit the bill. More advanced than both Pinto and Ramos were at that level, IMO. Matt Koch might fit the bill in the 2 year range, but his bat took a step back at New Britain this season. Defensively he is solid. And let's not forget the guy who used to be the top catching prospect for the Twins when Ramos was traded, was ranked as the top defensive catcher in the organization by BA a few years ago and is currently hitting .327/.397/.523 in AAA. Still cannot believe that Fryer is in the majors instead of Herrmann. Add players like Steward Turner, Brian Navaretto, Alex Swim and a 17 year old kid with a ton of potential at the DSL, named Robert Molina, and you will find that the Twins' organization is loaded with Catcher talent. Not a top 50-100 overall prospect, but loaded.

[Mike Sixel]

They is no reason to keep Perkins at this stage. This team is bad. They need players that will be here in 3 years.

[Kwak]

They is no reason to keep Perkins at this stage. This team is bad. They need players that will be here in 3 years.

 

Perkins will be traded--when the mass of RP drafted this June emerge as Major Leaguers--or next July/Fall 2015.

[DocBauer]

2-3 years? And you want a catcher with both D and a stick, I suspect...

 

Mitch Garver in the 3 year range might fit the bill. More advanced than both Pinto and Ramos were at that level, IMO. Matt Koch might fit the bill in the 2 year range, but his bat took a step back at New Britain this season. Defensively he is solid. And let's not forget the guy who used to be the top catching prospect for the Twins when Ramos was traded, was ranked as the top defensive catcher in the organization by BA a few years ago and is currently hitting .327/.397/.523 in AAA. Still cannot believe that Fryer is in the majors instead of Herrmann. Add players like Steward Turner, Brian Navaretto, Alex Swim and a 17 year old kid with a ton of potential at the DSL, named Robert Molina, and you will find that the Twins' organization is loaded with Catcher talent. Not a top 50-100 overall prospect, but loaded.

 

Yes!

 

Still very hopeful for Pinto to turn in to a solid everyday player. I have to say when he was the #1 to close out 2013, I didn't think he played that poorly. Which is why I give pause at times this year when I hear comments about work needed, or others who might doubt him.

 

I am right there on the Twins catcher depth. Turner, especially if he can hit just a little to go with his defense and OK power potential, Garver might be an even better prospect. Navaretto and Swim are very young, but it appears the potential is there. Also agree Koch may be a sleeper. He's got some potential with the bat, and might make for a nice backup.

 

Thrylos and I are both on the Herrman bandwagon. I simply don't know why there are those who dismiss him so strongly. He's a solid athlete, much better than average compared to most catchers, and has a solid line-drive LH bat with some pop and occasional power. Baseball America certainly has said nice things in the past, as was pointed out. The only reason I can find for any negative perception is he was promoted early, didn't flash, and was thus dismissed. And honestly, I'm glad Fryer is up now instead. I believe it allows Herrman to play daily and not be yo-yo'ed like he has been the past two seasons, something I've mentioned before.

 

I have advocated the Twins need for a veteran corner OF with some power and RBI potential to replace Willingham next season, as well as a solid, decent fill-in CF who might slide in to a 4th OF option if/when someone else emerges. Unless we trade a prospect or two, I'm not sure we have the ammunition to get anything in trade for that corner OF. But could we find that CF this year as a trade target? Someone stuck on a roster or at AAA just waiting for that next shot?

[DocBauer]

They is no reason to keep Perkins at this stage. This team is bad. They need players that will be here in 3 years.

 

At his age and with his stuff, and a good contract, I see no reason to trade Perkins at this time. Not every closer can expect to pitch as long and as well as Rivera did, obviously, but healthy, most top closers have shown the ability to pitch at a high level until 34-36. I see Perkins as an anchor for this team as it continues/completes it's rebuild over the next couple of years.

[B Richard]

At his age and with his stuff, and a good contract, I see no reason to trade Perkins at this time. Not every closer can expect to pitch as long and as well as Rivera did, obviously, but healthy, most top closers have shown the ability to pitch at a high level until 34-36. I see Perkins as an anchor for this team as it continues/completes it's rebuild over the next couple of years.

 

A good contract is a huge plus for his trade value. I love Perk (and suspect there may be a no-trade clause in his contract?) but closers can be fickle, and you never know what a team may offer. If a team bites, there's no reason not to ship him off for an attractive return. What does that return look like? I'm not sure. I would think we might get a BA ~ 30-50 prospect if there situation were right. I may be in the minority, but I don't see Perk as a part of this rebuild's foundation

[pierre75275]

I posted a blog in April about who i thought the twins would trade or release. I would link it but dont know how. Sometimes going back and reading that can be fun.

[Thrylos]

At his age and with his stuff, and a good contract, I see no reason to trade Perkins at this time.

 

This is a similar situation with Span, albeit Perkins is a bit older but a bit better than Span was. Span brought back a top prospect who is practically the only guy with Ace stuff in the organization (at this point, some others have potential but are not there.) Given that there are more closer candidates now, than there were CF candidates then, I think if Perkins (even in a package) can bring anything close to what Span brought, it is a total no-brainer.

[jorgenswest]

I don't think Perkins can bring anything near a Span like return.

 

His contract was actually better before the extension. Ages 33 and 34 are not kind to relievers.

 

While there are all kinds of rumors about relievers, when was the last time a reliever was traded for a top prospect? Matt Capps? We need to find the GM that made that deal.

 

Everyone would trade Perkins for an Alex Meyer type. I think the best deal would look more like Lewis Thorpe and Michael Tonkin.

[Major League Ready]

Because all are likely at peak value. Do what the Rays do. You cannot sell players with low value (or give them away for nothing) and expect to compete just using the draft after 4 seasons of mess. A 90+ loss team does not need Perkins. Perkins is 31+ & starting his declining phase. I doubt that Santana is anything more than a UT type of player and the Twins have many better SSs in the pipeline, starting with the gentleman who got a cup of water last week. Dozier is a good player on top of his value. He might look like a star compared to this mess of characters, but he is not. .234 batting average and about .180 IsoP. Remember Ploufe a couple seasons ago? If one can get a high return for Dozier, it is a no brainer, as far as I am concerned.

 

Got to sell high and cannot have untouchables in a 99+96+96+??? Team.

 

Extending Perkins was a bit of a head scratcher for me. I would have traded him last year. Of course, this assumes a suitable return could have been obtained and that may not have been the case. That contract makes it harder to move him now and I agree that a closer is not high on the list of priorities for a rebuilding team.

 

I don't think I would let Santana go unless of course the return was great. His plate discipline surprised me. With a little more development, he might be a lead-off hitter with decent offensive producer. It comes down to just how good does the coaching staff think he will be defensively. Then again, even if he is a bench player, he is a CF/SS back-up which are the hardest positions to B/U. Plus, he can be a late inning pinch runner. Bottom line is I don't think he would fetch enough value right now that I would let him go.

 

Plouffe, I would let go for the right price as well. They seem quite confident Sano is going to stick at 3B. Plouffe is too slow for the OF and we have our 1B for the next 4 1/2 years. I could see keeping him until Sano is in place given the lack of depth we have a 3B.

[stringer bell]

Plouffe isn't that slow. He isn't fast, by any means. He would need to hit like a corner outfielder, but I think that might happen. I'd like to see him get some reps out there after a prospective Hammer trade.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I posted a blog in April about who i thought the twins would trade or release. I would link it but dont know how. Sometimes going back and reading that can be fun.

 

Here's that blog: http://www.twinsdaily.com/entry.php/5050-Who-gets-traded-this-year

[diehardtwinsfan]

There was a different trade between the Diamondbacks and Angels this weekend that didn't get the fan fair. It was essentially a 2 for 2 swap with each player bringing back a younger version of themselves. I'd have hoped for a bit more upside on the Diamondbacks, but I suppose if we got something similar for Willingham, that would be a pretty decent corner OF prospect in AA. That would fit quite well with this team. I suppose getting a bucket of balls for KC would be fine, but I'd rather not get another 5 starter potential type guy...

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

D'Backs also had that trade with NYY, sending the Yankees Brandon McCarthy for Vidal Nuno.

 

I think getting a younger SP (preferably a LHP, I agree that there's not much Lefty starting pitching in the Twins' org) for Correia would be awesome. Another younger SP and/or OF prospect (someone that can play CF) for Willingham would be great. If there are teams out there willing to deal some even marginal prospects for the Twins' veterans, it would be a good move for the Twins to make right now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

There was a different trade between the Diamondbacks and Angels this weekend that didn't get the fan fair. It was essentially a 2 for 2 swap with each player bringing back a younger version of themselves. I'd have hoped for a bit more upside on the Diamondbacks, but I suppose if we got something similar for Willingham, that would be a pretty decent corner OF prospect in AA. That would fit quite well with this team. I suppose getting a bucket of balls for KC would be fine, but I'd rather not get another 5 starter potential type guy...

 

Ryan's MO is generally to go after younger guys in the lower minors; the potential risk/reward is higher with those players, not to mention that teams seem more willing to part with guys lower in the system. I think he'll do the same this season, as neither Correia nor Willingham have the clout to bring back a talented high minors prospect.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Ryan's MO is generally to go after younger guys in the lower minors; the potential risk/reward is higher with those players, not to mention that teams seem more willing to part with guys lower in the system. I think he'll do the same this season, as neither Correia nor Willingham have the clout to bring back a talented high minors prospect.

 

I'd think Hammer could bring back a decent corner OF prospect in AA, but I agree completely on Correia. Target a higher ceiling guy in A ball.