Berrios vs Norris

[gunnarthor]

BP has a nice article comparing two young arms - Daniel Norris and JO Berrios. It's behind a paywall but the comments aren't. While some prospect guys are down on Berrios b/c of his height he certainly has some who are very impressed with him.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23981#commentMessage

[darin617]

I thought it was Berrios Vs. Chuck Norris.

[Otwins]

Thanks - comments were very interesting

[DocBauer]

I thought it was Berrios Vs. Chuck Norris.

 

I heard somewhere the rest of the Florida State League wanted to switch to metal bats vs Berrios because their wooden ones "split" when he took the mound.

 

Ararararar.

 

(hanging head in shame)

[amjgt]

I was trying to come up with a clever Chuck Norris joke related to Berrios, when I stumbled upon what I think might be a decent nickname for him

 

How about "Fruit Loops"

 

(Berry O's)

 

 

---also hanging head in shame---

[twinsbaby]

From this article:

The Case for Jose Berrios

Even in a one-on-one debate against another prospect, Berrios' case stands for itself. There's little not to like about Berrios. Fastball velocity? Check. I've seen him at 94-95 and we have reports on him touching 98. Dominant breaking ball? Check. Take your pick, in fact. He flashed a potentially plus curve ball that may be his fourth best pitch. His slider is a true wipeout pitch that can miss left or right-handed bats, and I got one report where a left-handed batter swung and missed at a slider that hit him in the knee. You want a changeup? Check there too.

 

There are days the change piece serves as his best pitch, coming with incredible deception out of a lightning-quick arm. If he were 6-foot-4 instead of 6-foot, we'd be debating him for a top 10 spot on the BP Top 50. The only knock on Berrios is that he lost velocity last season down the stretch, which is a common problem for young pitchers going through their first full season. It's slightly more worrisome in a small pitcher, but he's about two months away from putting those concerns to rest. While he's short, his velocity doesn't require a lot of effort to generate, and the mechanics are smooth. If he can maintain his velocity through the next two months, he's going to shoot up our rankings even further. –Jeff Moore

[halfchest]

From this article:

The only knock on Berrios is that he lost velocity last season down the stretch, which is a common problem for young pitchers going through their first full season. It's slightly more worrisome in a small pitcher, but he's about two months away from putting those concerns to rest. While he's short, his velocity doesn't require a lot of effort to generate, and the mechanics are smooth. If he can maintain his velocity through the next two months, he's going to shoot up our rankings even further. –Jeff Moore

 

This is why I'm fine with the Twins leaving him at High A this year. If they move him up and he struggles is it because he's at AA or is it because he wore down again. He seems to just be getting better as the year goes on though. I won't complain if they move him to Double A but would rather just see him close out a good year at High A then start in AA next year as a 21 year old! If he puts together a good first half there then bump him to AAA and he's right on the doorstep by the end of next year.

[Badsmerf]

No problem with leaving him in high A for the year. He can be accelerated next year. Pushing him this season does no good. Let him dominate for a season and throw 150+ innings. If he destroys AA for a couple months then promote him to AAA and give him a September call-up if success continues or sooner with an injury. The only SP prospect I can recall being pushed pretty hard is Garza, and he was a college guy.

[Dman]

This is why I'm fine with the Twins leaving him at High A this year. If they move him up and he struggles is it because he's at AA or is it because he wore down again. He seems to just be getting better as the year goes on though. I won't complain if they move him to Double A but would rather just see him close out a good year at High A then start in AA next year as a 21 year old! If he puts together a good first half there then bump him to AAA and he's right on the doorstep by the end of next year.

 

 

While it is not the end of the world leaving him at high A I think he is better moving to AA soon. Berrios is a fly ball pitcher and somewhat protected in the Florida state league. Better to get him adjusted to better competition and less friendly parks this year so that he can excel there next year.

 

The velocity drop will be noticed regardless of which league he is in. It is a big jump from High A to AA for the pitchers so let's see what he can do there this year. Personally I think he will be good in AA this year as well.

[Badsmerf]

While it is not the end of the world leaving him at high A I think he is better moving to AA soon. Berrios is a fly ball pitcher and somewhat protected in the Florida state league. Better to get him adjusted to better competition and less friendly parks this year so that he can excel there next year.

 

The velocity drop will be noticed regardless of which league he is in. It is a big jump from High A to AA for the pitchers so let's see what he can do there this year. Personally I think he will be good in AA this year as well.

What is the rush? Even if he's only a September call-up next year he will be 21! This isn't a case where the Twins are one piece away and need to push him. Lets be patient with this kid and let him develop.

[Mike Sixel]

What's not the rush? He should move up when he appears to be close to ready, regardless of age. Oh, and arm injury.

[Dman]

Age really shouldn't matter. Is he dominating? The answer appears to be yes. Should he move on to the next challenge? why not? He is going to pitch the same number of pitches whether he is in High A or AA. Why not have him learn at the next level instead of continuing to dominate\stagnate where he is.

 

He is young but that is no reason to stagnate his development. If he makes it to the Majors at 21 he might be the best pitcher or best pitching option we have why not use him if that turns out to be the case instead of having him pitch at High A?

[Thrylos]

While some prospect guys are down on Berrios b/c of his height

 

Got to love this junk. Berrios is the same height as Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, an inch taller than Pedro Martinez and an inch shorter than Tom Seaver and Phil Niekro and 2 inches shorter than Nolan Ryan. (3 inches shorter than Blyleven.) This is the list of the pitchers who played the bulk of their careers in the lowered mount and were (or will shortly be) inducted in the Hall of Fame. Tall starters (other than Randy Johnson) have not really have had much sustained success the last 20-25 years.

[Mike Sixel]

Anyone can pick outliers.....and no one said tall like Johnson is good.

[DocBauer]

I guess I'm either old fashioned or too conservative. I always seem to error on the side of caution when it comes to young prospects. Wow! I should be in the Twins FO! LOL

 

But seriously, I am a huge believer in Berrios. In any sport, there are physical parameters that are preferred based on history that help project what should be expected. Projectables are a very real thing, and often accurate. But in the history of sports, there are amazing talents who wash out that posses those measurables, whether it be a QB, a center in basketball, or a 6' 3" pitcher in baseball. Talent and potential sometimes bely measurables. Such is the case of Berrios.

 

This kid is a sculpted athlete with a warrior attitude, big stuff, and a tremendous work ethic. In my time I've seen several young kids rise rapidly to the ML level. Names like Gooden and Fernandez come to mind. I don't know what the "it" factor is that allows teenagers/early 20's prospects to occassionaly rise so quickly. If I did, I'd be a top scout for someone.

 

Considering how young Berrios is, I have no problem letting him continue to taste vast success at high A while he develops as a pitcher, athlete and young man. But I also believe he is a special talent, and is so dominate, and such a competitor, that a move to AA just has to take place this season. It could be tomorrow, or a few weeks, giving him a month to a month and a half at the AA level.

 

I believe this would set him up for AAA next season, or a few weeks to a month in. I don't believe in rushing a top prospect, but I do believe in testing and pushing them.

[jokin]

No problem with leaving him in high A for the year. He can be accelerated next year. Pushing him this season does no good. Let him dominate for a season and throw 150+ innings. If he destroys AA for a couple months then promote him to AAA and give him a September call-up if success continues or sooner with an injury. The only SP prospect I can recall being pushed pretty hard is Garza, and he was a college guy.

 

"Let's do things the way we've always done them" is not a good defense for this organization. If Berrios can prove he can pitch in the majors at 21, why hold him back?

[Badsmerf]

"Let's do things the way we've always done them" is not a good defense for this organization. If Berrios can prove he can pitch in the majors at 21, why hold him back?

 

I have a different opinion on pitching I guess. There are a lot of pieces to being a successful MLB pitcher. I'm betting Berrios could be just fine right now if the Twins called him up. He might not start to have a lot of success for a couple seasons. Why not save the service time and have him work through things in the minors? I have plenty of issues with promotions, but rarely does a 21 year old kid come into the MLB and have immediate success. Even Felix had an adjustment period.

 

The Twins tend to be overly conservative with their promotions, but recently they've been alright. You can make the argument if he is promoted this season and blows away AA he could be on the fast track to the Twins by next season. I say it doesn't matter and that even playing a full year in high A he could still be accelerated next year if he dominates AA.

 

I do have an issue with leaving May in the minors right now. Situations like his bug the **** out of me.

[Mike Sixel]

jokin and I aren't saying move him to MLB right now, we are saying "don't move him to MLB because he's young" is not a good argument. Move him to AA, and see how he does. Domintating A ball players for a full year, IMO, doesn't teach him much of anything. Also, as ESPN and Fangraphs have pointed out, many teams are moving their pitchers faster, because they have realized two things: arms slow down over time and they want faster pitches; pitchers get hurt, and you should get MLB value out of them before they get hurt.

 

No one, I don't think, is saying put him in MLB right now. We are arguing against the argument that age determines when he should move up over ability.

[gunnarthor]

One other thing to consider is the scouting vs. stats. As has been noted, some prospect people, even the ones that like him, have some concerns. Maybe the Twins also have those concerns. If they think it's better for him to develop his 3rd pitch in a more comfortable pitching environment then let him do it. I like Berrios but I think he's a #3 starter at best.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The only SP prospect I can recall being pushed pretty hard is Garza, and he was a college guy.

 

Garza made the majors in just over a year, true, but Baker and Slowey made it within 2 years (and Gibson was on track to do the same when he started scuffling at AAA and eventually needed surgery). All college guys, of course.

 

Liriano was pushed pretty hard. Promoted to AA 3/4 of the way through his age-20 season (like Berrios this year, Liriano was 7 months older BUT was also coming off an age-19 season lost to injury), then promoted to AAA halfway through the next season, with a cup of coffee in MLB that September.

 

Liriano debuted in MLB ~2 months before his 22nd birthday. On that track, Berrios would debut about opening day 2016 (so a late season cup of coffee in 2015 wouldn't be out of the question either).

[Otto von Ballpark]

I do have an issue with leaving May in the minors right now. Situations like his bug the **** out of me.

 

Yeah, I know May isn't a great prospect, but he's definitely #2 in upside among our high minors starters right now, and has a great case for #1 in current performance, he's not real young or on any kind of innings/pitch limit... yet it seems we want to cycle through a bunch of other guys first. (I know Darnell and Johnson were brief promotions, but Deduno/Pino are two 30 year old journeymen and have collectively had a regular rotation spot most of the season).