Article: Three-Bagger: Gibson's Growth, Worley's Wild Ride & NL Pitchers

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/3129-Three-Bagger-Gibson-s-Growth-Worley-s-Wild-Ride-NL-Pitchers

[Thegrin]

The answer is simple IMSHO (In my seldom humble opinion). The DH. Not getting those free outs makes it tougher on the pitchers and it takes time to adjust.

[The Wise One]

Did they have better pitch framing catchers before coming to the Twins?

IIRC Worley's walk rate went way down with the Twins as did his K rate. I don't think there is a problem with pitch framing when the ball does not get to the catcher. Velocity wasn't the issue as that was unchanges, Pitch type was unchanged. That only leaves location and sequencing of the pitches. Can't find that.

[JB_Iowa]

I don't get caught up in (or argue about) the projections but thought I'd throw this article out here -- a blogger who believes Kyle Gibson is due for a big regression:

 

http://calltothepen.com/2014/06/19/three-pitchers-overperforming-kyle-gibson-mark-buehrle-dallas-keuchel/

 

 

Anybody want to point out why he's wrong (or right)?

[DJL44]

One thing helping Gibson is his groundball tendencies. Keeping the ball out of the Twins outfield is a good idea.

[jimbo92107]

All I can say is, Clayton Kershaw sure is lucky he pitches for the Dodgers!

[jimbo92107]

Oh, and on Kyle Gibson... What amazing growth he has shown over the last year. He came to town sporting an excellent sinking fastball, a good curve, and little idea what to do with them. I watched the archive video of his last outing, and man, has that guy become a pitcher. The way he mixed up his pitches and had them all dancing around the edges was really fun to watch. He is now doing everything you want an ace pitcher to do - changing speeds, changing spins, changing locations, holding runners, you name it. Kyle Gibson is every bit as good as Phil Hughes. The Twins right now have two guys that can go up against the best in the American League. If Nolasco gets better, watch out.

 

And another thing Gibson is doing really well - masking his pitches. His release point is almost identical for all his offerings. Very hard to tell which pitch is coming before it leaves his hand.

[ashbury]

I don't get caught up in (or argue about) the projections but thought I'd throw this article out here -- a blogger who believes Kyle Gibson is due for a big regression:

 

http://calltothepen.com/2014/06/19/three-pitchers-overperforming-kyle-gibson-mark-buehrle-dallas-keuchel/

 

 

Anybody want to point out why he's wrong (or right)?

 

He notes that a BABIP of .256 is a bit low and thus probably unsustainable. The low home run rate (per flyball) likewise could mean he's gotten his share of luck and more. Together they explain why I see an xFIP of 4.05 on Fangraphs compared to his true ERA of 3.25. This author's projection method puts it more like 5.

 

One can look at it as guesswork based on past experience, and it may or may not play out like that on an individual basis. Kershaw for instance has routinely kept his BABIP and HR/FB below league average (except this year, but his SO and Walk rates just happen to be better than ever so he's still doing OK). Let's hope we have another Kershaw on our hands here.

[Nick Nelson]

In his first 11 starts, Gibson's K/BB ratio was 1.5-to-1. In these last three, it has been 3-to-1. With a K/BB ratio like that, along with an outstanding GB rate, there's no reason he can't enjoy sustained success. That's probably been the most encouraging aspect of these last three starts to me -- especially Thursday's.

[jokin]

In his first 11 starts, Gibson's K/BB ratio was 1.5-to-1. In these last three, it has been 3-to-1. With a K/BB ratio like that, along with an outstanding GB rate, there's no reason he can't enjoy sustained success. That's probably been the most encouraging aspect of these last three starts to me -- especially Thursday's.

 

And an outstanding FB rate (28%, which ranks 20th lowest among all Starters). A pretty unusual set of superlatives. Seems sustainable.

[Brock Beauchamp]

In his first 11 starts, Gibson's K/BB ratio was 1.5-to-1. In these last three, it has been 3-to-1. With a K/BB ratio like that, along with an outstanding GB rate, there's no reason he can't enjoy sustained success. That's probably been the most encouraging aspect of these last three starts to me -- especially Thursday's.

 

Absolutely. I felt Gibson was a ticking time bomb unless he started missing more bats and cut down on walks.

 

Well, he has done just that. If he keeps it up, we're looking at a pretty good starter for quite some time.

[jokin]

Absolutely. I felt Gibson was a ticking time bomb unless he missed more bats and cut down on the walks.

 

Well, he has done just that. If he keeps it up, we're looking at a pretty good starter for quite some time.

 

And one of the best in the League at weak contact, too. He has a 16% IFFB rate, 3rd best in AL.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And one of the best in the League at weak contact, too. He has a 16% IFFB rate, 3rd best in AL.

 

He has some good peripherals going for him, that's for sure... But the likelihood of continued success with a 1:1 K/BB rate was pretty low. He needed to make an improvement in that regard and lately, he has done just that.