Joe Mauer hurt?

[Willihammer]

I believe there are 3 things to blame for Mauer's season:

 

Hard BABIP regression on liners

 

He's hitting more ground balls as a result of trying to pull the ball

 

Career high 1st pitch strike% is putting him behind in the count and forcing him to swing at pitchers pitches more frequently.

[TheDean]

I am in the camp that believes the concussion issue is lingering. With that said, I have to believe the Twins have done extensive work trying to figure that out--Joe is the teams highest paid asset. The fact they haven't said anything could mean the Docs are saying he's good to go.

 

Most concerning to me are the strikeouts and what appears to be an unwillingness on Joe's part to make pitchers pay for throwing strike 1 right down the middle of the plate. He's 6'5" 225 and he can't turn on an inside fastball and drive it out of the park? The shift has hurt him a lot, but I think he needs to modify his game plan before he'll see better results.

 

I don't watch every game, but it seems like he has been swinging at that 1st pitch a little more often over the last few weeks (I'll be the first to admit that I don't have statistical backup on that). That said, his swing seems like it needs some tweaks to drive that pitch to right. He seems to miss it or make poor contact, even when he swings at a middle/in 1st pitch FB.

 

Concussions are tough. I know some friends that fought through them in high school sports (lacrosse/hockey), and they had a tough time looking at screens/driving/reading books/etc, even months after the concussion. Tracking ML fastballs at 95 mph and reacting....it's easy to imagine it being problematic. Then again, not all concussions are made the same, not all athletes are made the same, and none of us are qualified to evaluate athletes, concussions, or athletes with concussions. My own anecdotal experience just leads me to a convenient (true or not) explanation for how a player on a potential HoF track could precipitously drop to statistics that say "needs to be platooned against LH and is replacement-level against RH."

[Shane Wahl]

I believe there are 3 things to blame for Mauer's season:

 

Hard BABIP regression on liners

 

He's hitting more ground balls as a result of trying to pull the ball

 

Career high 1st pitch strike% is putting him behind in the count and forcing him to swing at pitchers pitches more frequently.

 

I would add in potential lingering concussion effects, but this is good.

[jharaldson]

If the issue is concussion related then shouldn't he be getting better as the year goes on? His average has dropped each month from April->May->June.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=1857&position=C&season=2014

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I hesitated in posting at all in this thread because there's no way to know if Mauer's season is related to natural decline or injury. It doesn't seem productive to speculate which one it is, but the thing that can be deduced from the first half of 2014 is that he is not the player he was last year (or for much of his career).

The "why" is what a lot of us want to know, but I think the more important piece is "what" as in what are the Twins going to do about it? The expectation that Mauer will bounce back is one I still have, but my optimism is waning as the season progresses. Will he get the benefit of the doubt for the whole year, or at some point in the near future do the Twins make a move to replace him in the lineup.

My guess is that Mauer will be given every possible opportunity to show he still has the skills that have made him one of the best hitters of his generation.

[Boom Boom]

I haven't ruled out the possibility that there is nothing wrong with Mauer physically at all. I think we're all so surprised with how far he's fallen off that we're grasping and reaching for explanations. Sometimes players just don't perform.

 

Occam's razor and all that.

[Beezer07]

I believe there are 3 things to blame for Mauer's season:

 

Hard BABIP regression on liners

 

He's hitting more ground balls as a result of trying to pull the ball

 

Career high 1st pitch strike% is putting him behind in the count and forcing him to swing at pitchers pitches more frequently.

 

Average BABIP in the majors is around .300, right? Is it different for line drives?

[Willihammer]

Average BABIP in the majors is around .300, right? Is it different for line drives?

 

Leaguewide its around .700 for linedrives IIRC. For Mauer's career, he has done better.

 

According to ESPN Stats & Info, between 2009 and 2013 Mauer had an .803 average on line drives to the outfield (.744 when going to left field). This year that rate has tumbled to .579 (.450 when going the other way).

 

http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php/5300-A-Closer-Look-At-Joe-Mauer-s-Struggles

[jharaldson]

Leaguewide its around .700 for linedrives IIRC. For Mauer's career, he has done better.

 

According to ESPN Stats & Info, between 2009 and 2013 Mauer had an .803 average on line drives to the outfield (.744 when going to left field). This year that rate has tumbled to .579 (.450 when going the other way).

 

http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php/5300-A-Closer-Look-At-Joe-Mauer-s-Struggles

 

I don't know how to pull up those stats but I am suspicious that the range they used included the outlier 2009 year. I would be more comfortable looking at 2010-2013 when he reverted to his normal output for the most part.

[gil4]

I haven't ruled out the possibility that there is nothing wrong with Mauer physically at all. I think we're all so surprised with how far he's fallen off that we're grasping and reaching for explanations. Sometimes players just don't perform.

 

Occam's razor and all that.

 

I think the injury hypothesis requires fewer assumptions and thus fits the Occam's razor rule better. I don't know a lot of things that can turn a .320 hitter into a .260 hitter, but a concussion can do it. Guys don't suddenly forget how to hit.

[nicksaviking]

If it is lingering concussion issues, and I'm not saying it is, does any other team have this same chronic problem? Koskie, Morneau, Span and Mauer all having season ending (or crippling) concussions which seems to follow them into the following season or longer. What's happening here that isn't happening elsewhere?

 

I'm sure Mauer will refind his stroke once he goes to Denver. Maybe it's an altitude thing.

[Boom Boom]

I think the injury hypothesis requires fewer assumptions and thus fits the Occam's razor rule better. I don't know a lot of things that can turn a .320 hitter into a .260 hitter, but a concussion can do it. Guys don't suddenly forget how to hit.

 

But then we're assuming that Mauer has lingering concussion issues, and assuming that it's the primary reason he's dropped off.

 

That's two more assumptions than saying "he's just playing badly".

[DaveW]

If it is lingering concussion issues, and I'm not saying it is, does any other team have this same chronic problem? Koskie, Morneau, Span and Mauer all having season ending (or crippling) concussions which seems to follow them into the following season or longer. What's happening here that isn't happening elsewhere?

 

I'm sure Mauer will refind his stroke once he goes to Denver. Maybe it's an altitude thing.

 

Koskie and Morneau are both Canadian and therefore hockey players. Seriously though, Morneau most likely had a ton growing up as a goalie.

 

Mauer has played catcher forever and also was a QB in high school, who knows how many he had that went "undiagnosed" etc.

 

The Twins seem to have more then usual for sure...seems like rotten luck more than anything.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Koskie and Morneau are both Canadian and therefore hockey players. Seriously though, Morneau most likely had a ton growing up as a goalie.

 

Mauer has played catcher forever and also was a QB in high school, who knows how many he had that went "undiagnosed" etc.

 

The Twins seem to have more then usual for sure...seems like rotten luck more than anything.

 

I don't see what the Twins could possibly do to minimize concussions. It's a brain injury. As far as I know, treatment entirely consists of "sit around, don't hit your head on anything".

[Beemo]

Koskie wasn't a Twin when he had his concussion was he? I think he was with Milwaukee.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Koskie wasn't a Twin when he had his concussion was he? I think he was with Milwaukee.

 

I'm pretty sure he had at least one with the Twins. I just looked through his game logs. Crikey, that dude was injured a lot. Only played more than 150 games once with the Twins.

[Beemo]

I don't see any evidence he ever had a concussion with the Twins. Plenty of other body parts injured but none involving his head. I don't think we can count his as Twins bad luck.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't see any evidence he ever had a concussion with the Twins. Plenty of other body parts injured but none involving his head. I don't think we can count his as Twins bad luck.

 

Fair enough. I seem to remember a concussion but that could be my imagination.

[JB_Iowa]

Fair enough. I seem to remember a concussion but that could be my imagination.

 

I haven't found the earlier concussion so I'm not sure if this reference is correct (or if the writer mixed up Mauer & Morneau) but this indicates there was an earlier problem:

 

The Minnesota Twins have placed All-Star catcher Joe Mauer on the seven-day concussion disabled list after he experienced dizziness before Tuesday's game against the Detroit Tigers.

Mauer, who has battled concussions since 2010, was immediately scratched from the lineup and sent for tests. He caught Monday's game against the New York Mets.

 

Read On ABC News Radio: http://abcnewsradioonline.com/sports-news/twins-place-joe-mauer-on-concussion-dl.html#ixzz357fHJqf0

[JB_Iowa]

OTOH, I've now looked at a gazillion stories on the 2013 concussion without finding reference to a specific earlier one.

[D. Hocking]

I haven't found the earlier concussion so I'm not sure if this reference is correct (or if the writer mixed up Mauer & Morneau) but this indicates there was an earlier problem:

 

The Minnesota Twins have placed All-Star catcher Joe Mauer on the seven-day concussion disabled list after he experienced dizziness before Tuesday's game against the Detroit Tigers.

Mauer, who has battled concussions since 2010, was immediately scratched from the lineup and sent for tests. He caught Monday's game against the New York Mets.

 

I don't remember that at all - I wonder if they did mix up one M for the other.

 

Fair enough. I seem to remember a concussion but that could be my imagination.

 

Hmmm - memory a little cloudy. Did you play catcher or goalie in the past or taken any big hits to the head?

 

It seemed like Joe took a ton of foul tips off the mask the last couple of years. I remember thinking earlier in the season we were lucky he had never been diagnosed with a concussion (although in reality, there were probably a few that went undiagnoised).

[JB_Iowa]

Okay, from the horse's mouth (so to speak):

 

Mauer, 30, said it had been nearly two decades since he suffered his only previous diagnosed concussion.

"I had one when I was young -- real young," Mauer said. "I was probably 10 or 11 years old. Something at school, maybe just horsing around. Banged my head. I don't really remember how long the symptoms lasted. Just being a kid, I guess."

As for any concussions in the interim, which included a standout career as a high school all-America quarterback at Cretin-Derham Hall, Mauer said he has "probably had some along the way" but has never had "symptoms last this long."

 

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_23974437/minnesota-twins-joe-mauer-speaks-about-concussion-recovery

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hmmm - memory a little cloudy. Did you play catcher or goalie in the past or taken any big hits to the head?

 

Oh, I've had at least two concussions.

 

Definitely a not awesome experience.

[D. Hocking]

Oh, I've had at least two concussions.

 

Definitely a not awesome experience.

 

I probably should not have been making light of concussion symptoms. I suspect there are a few people on this board who have had a few due to the number of ex-jocks.

 

I am pretty sure I had one, but it was due to epic clumsiness in an non-athletic scene rather than some game winning feat.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I probably should not have been making light of concussion symptoms. I suspect there are a few people on this board who have had a few due to the number of ex-jocks.

 

I am pretty sure I had one, but it was due to epic clumsiness in an non-athletic scene rather than some game winning feat.

 

Oh, no worries. Mine weren't acquired playing traditional sports anyway. One was riding a bike, another was a freak accident where I face-planted into a curb in high school screwing around with friends.

 

I've also been in a myriad of dirt bike crashes. It wouldn't surprise me if I accumulated a few more that weren't so obvious that I had to go to the hospital.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I had a mild one a little over a month ago playing softball. As far as I know, it was my first, though I can think of a couple of other times that it could have happened. It took a few weeks for the headaches to go away for good, as they'd come back pretty every time I played softball or soccer. And I have to admit that concussion headaches are a different type of headache altogether. I don't really do anything that requires impressive hand/eye coordination like a professional baseball player, but I'd imagine, just from my limited experience, that these types of things don't necessarily return right away, and I don't know how someone would be able to hit a baseball while dealing with that.