Twins' Trade Bait and Why the Twins Should Sell

[DaveW]

On a rebuilding team, no one is trully "untouchable" but for the sake of argument I would list the following players as untouchable (Only way I would trade them is if some team truly throws the farm at the Twins, we are talking about a cant miss future star player and a few other pieces...i.e never say never, but it won't happen)

 

Dozier

Hughes

Buxton

Sano

Gibson

Meyer

 

are all untouchable in my book due to their current and/or future skill set.

 

Guys like Nolasco and Mauer are untouchable as well, due to contract/having a bad year. I would never trade Mauer, and I think Nolasco will turn it around.

 

Pretty sure we can't trade Perkins with his new contract (NTC I believe?) which is 100% fine with me, we have a truly elite closer on a very, very team friendly deal.

 

That leaves the following players that I believe the Twins should explore trading (only if we are 6+ games out) Odds assume the Twins are "out" of it :

 

Plouffe- With Sano as the future 3B Plouffe is obviously in a bit of a no mans land, however he does have some nice versatility for the Twins and Sano may not be ready for the majors until mid next year anyways. Plouffe ultimately could become Cuddyer part 2 for us. I wouldn't "trade him just to trade him" but if someone wants to give up a top 50 prospect or someone that can play SS then I would listen. Otherwise, hold onto him until Sano is ready and figure out where he fits. Odds: 10% this season. 35% sometime in 2015.

 

Pinto- Prob a bit too early to consider trading him, however if the Twins are convinced that he won't stick defensively at Catcher (and nothing they have said indicates so) maybe it would make sense to stick him out there, however I don't think it is the right time. Odds: 5% this year.

 

Suzuki- Has been a real nice player for the Twins this year, I think if the Twins fall out of it you have to see if he would be willing to sign a two year extension prior to the deadline, if he flat out says no or wants to hit the FA market I think you have to move him. Odds: 20% traded. 80% signed to an extension.

 

Willingham- If the Twins are out if it I think its almost a certainty that they would trade Willingham if he was healthy. Odds: 90%

 

Morales- This one is really tough. I imagine they would make sure Morales was fine with being shopped before they even considered doing so, the last thing I would want them to do is burn bridges with a Cuban player and a Boras client. Personally I would keep him around all year and try to sign him to an extension. Odds: 25% traded. 50% extension. 25% Stays around and walks at the end of the season.

 

Escobar- Has played admirably for the Twins this season, has some nice flexibility in positions he can play. Perhaps has more trade value then many would think. However, the Twins desperately need SS moving forward and there are no real ones in the org who will step up in the next year or two, unless Santana of course can keep all of this up. Odds: 10% traded. 30% if Santana can prove to be the SS of the near future.

 

Correia- Again if the Twins are out of it I think its a near certainty he would be traded. Odds: 90%

 

Burton- No real trade value at this point, I guess if he starts pulling it together he could be traded, I just don't see it happening. (10%)

[DaveW]

Sorry, but I'm going to have to see something to back that up. Every report from MLB trade rumors and things I can find in searches says the Twins were putting such high demands on trade returns that they basically made him untouchable.

 

I remember it as well, there was a thread on here at the time. The talk was by one reporter reporting a "front office person" said the best they could hop for was a low ceiling pitching prospect (i.e. a #4/#5)

[DaveW]

If the price you tell people has them hanging up laughing....that's not a good idea. High expectations are fine. Ridiculous expectations?

 

Well that's ridiculous.

Well whoever this baseball mind was, he clearly thought they were asking too much for Span as well. We know how that turned out (The Twins fleeced the Nationals) not all front office/teams are created equally.

[diehardtwinsfan]

They missed a chance to trade Dozier at peak value. I like his defense and power numbers, but too many 0-4's. Too many strikeouts with RISP. In hindsight, I'd have traded him when he was going good.

 

To each his own I guess I still think his value is rising. Dozier is looking more and more like a guy who deserves a long term contract this offseason. I think the BA will normalize a bit more. The power is legit. Strikes me as a guy who can hit .270 with 20+ home runs over the course of a season, while playing elite defense... That's pretty good for a 2B.

[ashbury]

That was part of the debate at the time and none of us can know what was on the table. But I'm 100% sure now of what I was reasonably sure of back in 2012 - never was Hammer's value higher than in July of 2012.

 

Is it good business to sign a guy to 3 years and then trade him halfway through the first year? You might win that transaction, and then never get a shot at Phil Hughes, for example, or anybody like him, ever again.

[DaveW]

Is it good business to sign a guy to 3 years and then trade him halfway through the first year? You might win that transaction, and then never get a shot at Phil Hughes, for example, or anybody like him, ever again.

I agree, I think it comes down to the whole "baseball players are human beings" argument again, even though they are super duper rich!!$$!!$! They still have to deal with the pain of selling a house, finding a new house, moving the wife/kids, new schools, new friends etc.

 

I know I would be pretty pissed if I took a job that moved me across the country, then 5 months later they transferred me across the other side of the country.

[TheLeviathan]

Is it good business to sign a guy to 3 years and then trade him halfway through the first year? You might win that transaction, and then never get a shot at Phil Hughes, for example, or anybody like him, ever again.

 

That's a fair counter-argument and one I accepted as a fair argument at the time too. It was not, however, the primary opposing viewpoint.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It's bad business to trade Hughes just three months into a three-year deal. Same thing on Morales just two weeks after signing him. If you want your team to be a destination for sought-after free agents, you cannot do that kind of thing. It's different for Willingham, whose deal is just about up after two-and-a-half years here and for Suzuki, whose stay is likely short anyway. Moving Hughes would be inexcusable in the world of agents.

 

Speaking only to Morales, I have to think that one of the conversations that was had with him during the negotiations was that if the Twins are out of it, he may be traded. It's a 1 year deal. If it wasn't, there's some serious oversight somewhere. Morales may have made it clear he wants to finish out the season and TR may have said OK, or Morales may have said go ahead and trade me in that situation... we don't know. the lack of a NTC tells me that he's fine going to a contender if he's playing well.

[TheLeviathan]

Well whoever this baseball mind was, he clearly thought they were asking too much for Span as well. We know how that turned out (The Twins fleeced the Nationals) not all front office/teams are created equally.

 

No, he said Span was "more pricey". Are you incapable of understanding the chasm between that and "it was so dumb I laughed"?

 

If he wanted to start there for a week or so, fine. But he kept those demands there. The reason Willingham wasn't dealt wasn't because the best they could do is a C prospect. He wasn't dealt because the Twins set a bar so high no real talks ever started.

[diehardtwinsfan]

On a rebuilding team, no one is trully "untouchable" but for the sake of argument I would list the following players as untouchable (Only way I would trade them is if some team truly throws the farm at the Twins, we are talking about a cant miss future star player and a few other pieces...i.e never say never, but it won't happen)

 

Dozier

Hughes

Buxton

Sano

Gibson

Meyer

 

are all untouchable in my book due to their current and/or future skill set.

 

Guys like Nolasco and Mauer are untouchable as well, due to contract/having a bad year. I would never trade Mauer, and I think Nolasco will turn it around.

 

Pretty sure we can't trade Perkins with his new contract (NTC I believe?) which is 100% fine with me, we have a truly elite closer on a very, very team friendly deal.

 

That leaves the following players that I believe the Twins should explore trading (only if we are 6+ games out) Odds assume the Twins are "out" of it :

 

Plouffe- With Sano as the future 3B Plouffe is obviously in a bit of a no mans land, however he does have some nice versatility for the Twins and Sano may not be ready for the majors until mid next year anyways. Plouffe ultimately could become Cuddyer part 2 for us. I wouldn't "trade him just to trade him" but if someone wants to give up a top 50 prospect or someone that can play SS then I would listen. Otherwise, hold onto him until Sano is ready and figure out where he fits. Odds: 10% this season. 35% sometime in 2015.

 

Pinto- Prob a bit too early to consider trading him, however if the Twins are convinced that he won't stick defensively at Catcher (and nothing they have said indicates so) maybe it would make sense to stick him out there, however I don't think it is the right time. Odds: 5% this year.

 

Suzuki- Has been a real nice player for the Twins this year, I think if the Twins fall out of it you have to see if he would be willing to sign a two year extension prior to the deadline, if he flat out says no or wants to hit the FA market I think you have to move him. Odds: 20% traded. 80% signed to an extension.

 

Willingham- If the Twins are out if it I think its almost a certainty that they would trade Willingham if he was healthy. Odds: 90%

 

Morales- This one is really tough. I imagine they would make sure Morales was fine with being shopped before they even considered doing so, the last thing I would want them to do is burn bridges with a Cuban player and a Boras client. Personally I would keep him around all year and try to sign him to an extension. Odds: 25% traded. 50% extension. 25% Stays around and walks at the end of the season.

 

Escobar- Has played admirably for the Twins this season, has some nice flexibility in positions he can play. Perhaps has more trade value then many would think. However, the Twins desperately need SS moving forward and there are no real ones in the org who will step up in the next year or two, unless Santana of course can keep all of this up. Odds: 10% traded. 30% if Santana can prove to be the SS of the near future.

 

Correia- Again if the Twins are out of it I think its a near certainty he would be traded. Odds: 90%

 

Burton- No real trade value at this point, I guess if he starts pulling it together he could be traded, I just don't see it happening. (10%)

 

I'd probably add Pinto, May, and Vargas to your untouchable list. I might trade them, but it's going to be expensive as they all look to be well above average contributers at positions of need.

[DaveW]

The reason Willingham wasn't dealt wasn't because the best they could do is a C prospect. He wasn't dealt because the Twins set a bar so high no real talks ever started.

I would be careful about speaking in such absolutes, in reality none of us have any ideas on what exactly the Twins were asking for or how far talks got. There was very little reported at the time (which is pretty typical when it comes to the Twins as they like to keep things close)

[diehardtwinsfan]

I remember it as well, there was a thread on here at the time. The talk was by one reporter reporting a "front office person" said the best they could hop for was a low ceiling pitching prospect (i.e. a #4/#5)

 

I'm pretty sure this was the case, and I know at the time I felt that it would make more sense to hold on to him if that's all he was going to net. We have plenty of those types of guys. Had he kept swinging well into 2013, I think he'd have netted a much nicer prospect. Given his play now and 2013 in hindsight, I'm guessing they might be able to get one or two high ceiling/high risk guys in A ball, which in my opinion is better than a 4/5 starter.

[DaveW]

I'd probably add Pinto, May, and Vargas to your untouchable list. I might trade them, but it's going to be expensive as they all look to be well above average contributers at positions of need.

Yeah I thought about it, I see them as the next level of "almost untouchable" along with Rosario etc. However if the Twins are "in it" then perhaps they become potential trade chips to help push the team over the top (moreso Vargas, Pinto and Rosario then May, since the Twins need need need need need need need good young pitching)

[diehardtwinsfan]

No, he said Span was "more pricey". Are you incapable of understanding the chasm between that and "it was so dumb I laughed"?

 

If he wanted to start there for a week or so, fine. But he kept those demands there. The reason Willingham wasn't dealt wasn't because the best they could do is a C prospect. He wasn't dealt because the Twins set a bar so high no real talks ever started.

 

Personally, I'm not a fan of making a trade for the sake of trading. Most of the 'experts' for what its worth, said a 4/5 starter. To me, that isn't worth it. Perhaps TR could have gotten a Trevor May type guy for him at the deadline, but that seems like quite a bit of risk given the situation. We really don't know if he listed to offers or not, he was quoted publicly of saying that he will listen on anyone. If someone called and said they'd offer a higher ceiling prospect for him, I think he'd have listened, even if his initial demands were more in the dylan bundy type range.

[TheLeviathan]

I would be careful about speaking in such absolutes, in reality none of us have any ideas on what exactly the Twins were asking for or how far talks got. There was very little reported at the time (which is pretty typical when it comes to the Twins as they like to keep things close)

 

Read the link above from MLBTR. That site has proven to be pretty reliable in it's history. Every report they were collecting was that the Twins were basically making Willingham untouchable and off the market. And that we would've had MANY suitors for him had we made him available.

 

Is that an absolute truth? No, but it's a mountain of evidence vs. one report that may have existed that I can't find no matter how many ways I google it. Sorry, but I tend to side towards mountains of evidence that fall in line with team habits. What you're doing is clinging to minuscule evidence (that so far no one can even find) because it fits your narrative.

[TheLeviathan]

Personally, I'm not a fan of making a trade for the sake of trading. Most of the 'experts' for what its worth, said a 4/5 starter.

 

Show me. I can't find that. I find a little of that when they start talking the offseason after 2012, but NOTHING about that at the July deadline that year. Everything I read says there were suitors lined up for him but the Twins demands basically scared people away out of their ridiculousness or flat-out refusal to talk about him.

 

I keep producing evidence, it'd be swell if some of you would start to suggest some counter-evidence you claim exists.

[jorgenswest]

At every trade deadline there are many rumors. Rumors planted by teams on order to drive up value. Rumors started by agents to generate interest. There is no way to know of there is any substance.

 

The reality is that there are very few trades of very good prospects. Last year there were four guys traded that appeared on a top 100 list kept by baseball reference. Avisial Garcia appeared on one list. Jose Iglesias and Mike Olt appeared in all three. The fourth CJ Edwards was on the rise and appeared on 2014 lists (but not 2013). Iglesias and Garcia were involved in the same three way trade with Jake Peavy. The other two were part of the Garza deal.

 

If you want to get a very good prospect, trade a middle to top of the rotation starting pitcher. Catchers, shortstops and centerfielders also can get better prospects because they can not easily be replaced.

 

Corner players and relievers are in abundance and get little in return in trade. Here is a list of all of the 2012 trades.

 

We know for sure that these were the teams willing to deal for a corner player. Where does Willingham go? The Twins were better off keeping him.

 

Looking through the many C prospects that exchanged hands that summer, the Twins look to have done pretty well with Escobar.

[RedBull34]

I would trade Hughes, but only for a Shields like return and nothing else. Since that isn't likely to happen, I would keep him.

[DaveW]

What you're doing is clinging to minuscule evidence (that so far no one can even find) because it fits your narrative.

I am clearly not the only one to think this, as I mentioned there were threads on here at the time, I really don't have the time (shocking I know) or desire to try to search through thread after thread and MLBtrade rumor achives to try to prove that this was said, I know it was said, DiehardTwinsfan knows it was said, if you want to say it never was said/written then that is your prerogative.

 

At the end of the day Willingham as long as he stays healthy, still has some trade value, additionally if things break right he could be a very big reason why the Twins can potentially give us meaningful games to watch in August and hopefully Sept/Oct.

[Smcginnity]

Yesterday I looked at the standings and although we are only 6.5 games out of first, that could be 10+ in less than a week the way the Royals are playing. Also, we are 7th worst in all of MLB according to record.

 

So, if we become sellers, who goes? I would assume Morales is definitely gone. Suzuki is a nice trade chip. Willingham could get a decent AA or High-A player. The way Correia is pitching the last couple starts, he may fetch a decent prospect too. So, here's what I got:

 

Morales - Yes (unless he has a no trade clause?)

Suzuki - Maybe (depends how much they value him for next year over Pinto)

Willingham - Yes (this is obvious)

Correia - If someone comes hunting for him, then absolutely Yes

 

Who else from there? Nunez? Fien? Burton? Plouffe? Hicks? Diamond?

 

It will be interesting if we are in a sell-mode because we have LOTS to get rid of to open spots for youngsters.

[TheLeviathan]

if you want to say it never was said/written then that is your prerogative.[/QUOte]

 

I question when it was said. That chatter is out there for the 2012 offseason, not for July. Your evidence is of low demand but multiple and varied reports say demand was high. The Twins just weren't letting the supply out.

[gunnarthor]

Show me. I can't find that. I find a little of that when they start talking the offseason after 2012, but NOTHING about that at the July deadline that year. Everything I read says there were suitors lined up for him but the Twins demands basically scared people away out of their ridiculousness or flat-out refusal to talk about him.

 

I keep producing evidence, it'd be swell if some of you would start to suggest some counter-evidence you claim exists.

What do you think his trade value was in 2012 and what do you think it is now? Is it substantially different in your view? I don't think it is. Right now, his RH power and strong OBP is still the hardest thing to find in baseball and a team could jump on that in the home stretch. I think at least some teams will find him more enticing if they don't have to commit several more years and several more million to him.

[TheLeviathan]

What do you think his trade value was in 2012 and what do you think it is now? Is it substantially different in your view? I don't think it is. Right now, his RH power and strong OBP is still the hardest thing to find in baseball and a team could jump on that in the home stretch. I think at least some teams will find him more enticing if they don't have to commit several more years and several more million to him.

 

It may help to go back and look at just how ridiculously Hammer was producing at July 31st 2012. His value now is nowhere near that IMO. (Also, 7M a season for two years wasn't holding back his value then)

[Brock Beauchamp]

What do you think his trade value was in 2012 and what do you think it is now? Is it substantially different in your view? I don't think it is. Right now, his RH power and strong OBP is still the hardest thing to find in baseball and a team could jump on that in the home stretch. I think at least some teams will find him more enticing if they don't have to commit several more years and several more million to him.

 

For good or bad, GMs have weird trade deadline habits.

 

Josh Willingham had 2 1/2 years on his contract and was available as a FA just six months previous to that deadline. GMs seem reluctant to offer value for that kind of contract, the same way they seem to be reluctant to offer value for any player with 1+ years on their contract at the deadline. GMs seem willing to overpay for expiring contracts but we just don't see many long-term contracts swapped at the deadline.

 

I'm not making excuses for not trading Willingham. I don't know what the offers were and what Ryan asked in return but it's a mistake to look at a 2+ year contract at the deadline and expect a fair return. It just doesn't seem to happen that way.

 

Personally, I think it's really dumb.

[JB_Iowa]

Speaking only to Morales, I have to think that one of the conversations that was had with him during the negotiations was that if the Twins are out of it, he may be traded. It's a 1 year deal. If it wasn't, there's some serious oversight somewhere. Morales may have made it clear he wants to finish out the season and TR may have said OK, or Morales may have said go ahead and trade me in that situation... we don't know. the lack of a NTC tells me that he's fine going to a contender if he's playing well.

 

I agree. From Christina Kahrl on ESPN:

Which brings us to why signing with the Twins might especially make sense for Morales, without knowing about how much money was in play. Say the Twins fall entirely out of the race -- if that happens, they’re an obvious seller at the deadline, and Morales could look forward to being dealt to a team in a stronger position in the standings. Rather than pick a contender and hope for the best, signing with the longshot team provides him with a chance there, and potentially a chance to be dealt to an even better opportunity to return to the postseason in two months. Considering Morales hasn’t played any October baseball since 2009, it’s not the worst gambit for a guy who has already lost so much of this season to taking a bad risk on his value on the open market as a free agent.

 

Have to think that Morales and Boras discussed this very possibility (and probably discussed it with the Twins).

[Brandon]

Do we need to be sellers if we are 6 games back? Why not try to win a bunch of games for the heck of it and decide in the offseason who we want to keep and if we loose a player in the offseason for nothing then so be it.

[nicksaviking]

Do we need to be sellers if we are 6 games back? Why not try to win a bunch of games for the heck of it and decide in the offseason who we want to keep and if we loose a player in the offseason for nothing then so be it.

 

Were they not trying to win a bunch of games against Boston? If they were, they failed miserably which isn't good indicator for the rest of the season. If they weren't, well then we have a whole different problem.

 

Willingham, Suzuki and Morales are all free agents after this season. The Twins don't get to decide in the offseason who they get to keep. At that point, the decision is up to the player.

[DaveW]

Were they not trying to win a bunch of games against Boston? If they were, they failed miserably which isn't good indicator for the rest of the season. If they weren't, well then we have a whole different problem.

 

 

Failed miserably? That is a little much, it was extremely frustrating no doubt, but let's not act like the Twins got blown out every game. They went against 3 very good pitchers who shut them down, it happens (it sucks no doubt, but it happens). Heck if Perkins wasn't "sick" yesterday and Doizer gets a base hit in the 8th on Monday, then the Twins win that series, but that is baseball.

[WLFINN]

Yesterday I looked at the standings and although we are only 6.5 games out of first, that could be 10+ in less than a week the way the Royals are playing. Also, we are 7th worst in all of MLB according to record.

 

So, if we become sellers, who goes? I would assume Morales is definitely gone. Suzuki is a nice trade chip. Willingham could get a decent AA or High-A player. The way Correia is pitching the last couple starts, he may fetch a decent prospect too. So, here's what I got:

 

Morales - Yes (unless he has a no trade clause?)

Suzuki - Maybe (depends how much they value him for next year over Pinto)

Willingham - Yes (this is obvious)

Correia - If someone comes hunting for him, then absolutely Yes

 

Who else from there? Nunez? Fien? Burton? Plouffe? Hicks? Diamond?

 

It will be interesting if we are in a sell-mode because we have LOTS to get rid of to open spots for youngsters.

 

 

What is Nunez contract status? Arb eligible? Options?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Failed miserably? That is a little much, it was extremely frustrating no doubt, but let's not act like the Twins got blown out every game. They went against 3 very good pitchers who shut them down, it happens (it sucks no doubt, but it happens). Heck if Perkins wasn't "sick" yesterday and Doizer gets a base hit in the 8th on Monday, then the Twins win that series, but that is baseball.

 

Maybe it's just me but I walked away from the Boston series with a positive outlook. Was it frustrating? Absolutely... but playing that team straight-up in Boston and shutting down their offense bodes well for the rest of the season.

 

Hitting is up and down. Pitching is what wins games over the course of a season. If the pitching has turned the corner, that's a much better sign of what's to come than the offense stumbling through three games on the road and losing three close games.