Yohan Pino to start Thursday / Deduno moved to pen

[DaveW]

Good for Pino. Don't understand why May didn't get the call. He's the obvious choice IMO.

 

I'm guessing it's because Pino slots into the rotation on his normal day to pitch? Also, Pino has more then earned his shot this year 9.0 k/9 1.94 ERA, it is good for an org to show that it will reward players (even non prospects like Pino) and give them a shot if they dominate AAA. Names like DeDuno, Albers, Collabello etc come to mind as well, of course none of those guys became studs, but maybe Pino can stock on the roster in the rotation for a few starts, and then ultimately in the pen for a while.

 

May/Meyer will get there shots.

[DaveW]

That is my hope too, a one start thing. They told the guy, you are 29 and have been applying for this job for 9 years. We are going to bring Meyer up but we need to line the days up. Fly your family in, you will be pitching for one game at Target field. Congrats.

 

If they move him to the pen after a start I would not be as upset, but then would rather have Tonkin or Achter with the same logic applying.

 

I hope it isn't a one start thing as that would indicate that he struggled in it, I hope he can stick in the rotation for a month or two, allowing the Twins to either.

1. Trade him

2. Trade Correia

 

Thus allowing another opening for May/Meyer etc.

 

Again, Pino has absolutely dominated AAA this year, sub 2 ERA, 9 k/9, sub 1.000 WHIP. He earned his shot, no doubt about it.

[JB_Iowa]

I just want to him to get enough of a shot that we don't have to hear #FreePino for months in the way that we went through #FreeSlama.

[tobi0040]

I hope it isn't a one start thing as that would indicate that he struggled in it, I hope he can stick in the rotation for a month or two, allowing the Twins to either.

1. Trade him

2. Trade Correia

 

Thus allowing another opening for May/Meyer etc.

 

Again, Pino has absolutely dominated AAA this year, sub 2 ERA, 9 k/9, sub 1.000 WHIP. He earned his shot, no doubt about it.

 

How much of this is luck?

 

Pino .222 BABIP and 8.5% of his runners have scored.

 

Meyer .311 BABIP and 28.2% of his runners have scored (Meyer has a higher K rate as well)

 

Are we really thinking Pino has trade value?

Regarding the "deserves a shot", is this 3rd grade kick-ball at recess?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa294918&position=P

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa455438&position=P

[70charger]

My hope is that this is a one-start thing. If the Twins really thought Pino was worth a rotation spot, shouldn't he have had one years ago?

 

You mean when he was with Cleveland? Or maybe Toronto or Cincinnati? Yeah, good point.

[tobi0040]

You mean when he was with Cleveland? Or maybe Toronto or Cincinnati? Yeah, good point.

 

We could have probably claimed him six different times. Whether it was the Twins or these other teams, he has been consistently passed over for a reason. My guess is it is a combination of his numbers, age, and stuff.

[drivlikejehu]

Yes Pino does have trade value. The A's just acquired a 29 year old soft tosser, Brad Mills, who is very similar to Pino, though he is left-handed and has a bit of MLB experience. The cost was $1. So Pino is worth at least 50 cents, maybe 75.

 

His FIP is actually 4th in the Rochester rotation. He is lucky, not dominant. He is a flyball pitcher whose strikeout numbers will plummet against major league hitters. Pino could be a 12th guy on the staff, similar to Swarzak, but that's it. He doesn't "deserve" anything special because of a fluky AAA ERA.

[DaveW]

Yes Pino does have trade value. The A's just acquired a 29 year old soft tosser, Brad Mills, who is very similar to Pino, though he is left-handed and has a bit of MLB experience. The cost was $1. So Pino is worth at least 50 cents, maybe 75.

 

 

Your sarcasm in which you answered your own question a couple posts above is dully noted.

 

If he can prove effective in the majors, he will therefore have some trade value, if Drew Butera can bring back a player, then I imagine so can a pitcher who may/may not be able to be a 5th/6th SP type guy.

 

As far as "what is this third grade comment?" I don't understand what you are getting at, in most phases of life people get rewarded for doing well, Pino has done very well in AAA and has more than earned a shot, they are giving him a start, it's not like they just gave him a 4 year contract or anything...

[tobi0040]

Your sarcasm in which you answered your own question a couple posts above is dully noted.

 

If he can prove effective in the majors, he will therefore have some trade value, if Drew Butera can bring back a player, then I imagine so can a pitcher who may/may not be able to be a 5th/6th SP type guy.

 

As far as "what is this third grade comment?" I don't understand what you are getting at, in most phases of life people get rewarded for doing well, Pino has done very well in AAA and has more than earned a shot, they are giving him a start, it's not like they just gave him a 4 year contract or anything...

 

I think you are mixing up myself and drive....

 

The third grade comment is in response to this "I am really happy for him" and "deserves a shot", referencing how long he has waited. It is the equivalent of little Johnny has been standing there waiting to play a really long time so we should get him in there.

 

24 year old #3 prospect, (Meyer) FIP is 3.39

25 year old #7-10 prospect (May) FIP is 2.91

29 year old, unranked prospect (Pino) FIP is 3.69

 

Outside of the context of the last 60 IP, Meyer's numbers are far and away better than the other two. It isn't even close. Not to mention 97 has a better track record against MLB hitters than does 87.

 

When you back out luck (BABIP and LOB %), Pino does not deserve anything.

[diehardtwinsfan]

How much of this is luck?

 

Pino .222 BABIP and 8.5% of his runners have scored.

 

Meyer .311 BABIP and 28.2% of his runners have scored (Meyer has a higher K rate as well)

 

Are we really thinking Pino has trade value?

Regarding the "deserves a shot", is this 3rd grade kick-ball at recess?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa294918&position=P

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa455438&position=P

 

 

This is what bothers me about SABR in general. Some of the stats give you the why to the other stats and I take issue with the idea that BABIP is simply a luck stat. Pino has a WHIP of less than 1... think about that for a second. That's rare. That's also why only 8.5% of his runners are scoring. Teams are getting less than 1 baserunner an inning. It's pretty hard for guys to cross the plate when that happens.

 

As for BABIP. If this was purely a luck stat, any one of us could go out there and notch a bunch of 0K performances with an ERA around 9. The reality though is that the reason none of us pitch is b/c our BABIP would be through the roof. Major league hitters would tee off on us. What you see at the major league level is a bell curve like distribution of the best of the best.... and yes, it fluctuates. I won't argue that there's some luck in there, but right now, Pino is pitching better than Meyer, and all the stats back that up, even if Meyer does have a higher ceiling.

[drivlikejehu]

Pino's FIP is actually higher than 3.69 that if you only consider his work as a starter. In 19 relief innings, 29 strikeouts. In 42 innings as a starter, 31 strikeouts, 11 walks. Completely ordinary.

 

It is absolutely false to say he has better stats than May and Meyer. In small samples, fielding independent metrics are superior. And in those, Pino trails other Rochester starters.

[DaveW]

I think you are mixing up myself and drive....

 

The third grade comment is in response to this "I am really happy for him" and "deserves a shot", referencing how long he has waited. It is the equivalent of little Johnny has been standing there waiting to play a really long time so we should get him in there.

 

24 year old #3 prospect, (Meyer) FIP is 3.39

25 year old #7-10 prospect (May) FIP is 2.91

29 year old, unranked prospect (Pino) FIP is 3.69

 

Outside of the context of the last 60 IP, Meyer's numbers are far and away better than the other two. It isn't even close. Not to mention 97 has a better track record against MLB hitters than does 87.

 

When you back out luck (BABIP and LOB %), Pino does not deserve anything.

It's one start, in which Pino lines up perfectly for (May would not be ready by Thursday)

 

I could understand your point if the Twins said "Pino is our guy the rest of the year" but they are clearly bringing him up for one start, if he does well he will stay, if he doesn't he will likely go back down or down to the pen.

 

You can bring up the luck thing all you want, when you are striking out a batter per inning and not walking a bunch (again a WHIP lower then 1.000) you are clearly doing something right.

Frankly, I would love for whatever "luck" he is tossing out to continue for the Twins for a few games. At the end of the day it's about results, Pino's results have been the best of the bunch in AAA which is why he certainly deserves a chance to start a game in the majors.

 

Results are what count, and his results thus far have been great, if he can translate said results into the majors (I don't care if its 100% luck based at that point) then the Twins are better off for it. Even if its only one start and then replacing someone in the bullpen afterwards.

[tobi0040]

This is what bothers me about SABR in general. Some of the stats give you the why to the other stats and I take issue with the idea that BABIP is simply a luck stat. Pino has a WHIP of less than 1... think about that for a second. That's rare. That's also why only 8.5% of his runners are scoring. Teams are getting less than 1 baserunner an inning. It's pretty hard for guys to cross the plate when that happens.

 

As for BABIP. If this was purely a luck stat, any one of us could go out there and notch a bunch of 0K performances with an ERA around 9. The reality though is that the reason none of us pitch is b/c our BABIP would be through the roof. Major league hitters would tee off on us. What you see at the major league level is a bell curve like distribution of the best of the best.... and yes, it fluctuates. I won't argue that there's some luck in there, but right now, Pino is pitching better than Meyer, and all the stats back that up, even if Meyer does have a higher ceiling.

 

I understand some inconsistencies. If a pitcher is getting hit very hard, BABIP will likely be higher for example.

 

But if you have a guy over 1,000 IP that has 26-33% of his runners scoring (veries yearly) and he is all the sudden at a clip of only 8.5%? If his BABIP is usually around .300 and he is at .222. He is extremely lucky. No doubt about it.

 

The same was true about Phil Hughes after 3 starts. 41% of his balls in play were hits and a crazy amount of his base runners were scoring. He had a 7+ ERA and a FIP in the low 3's. What has happened since? ERA tracked FIP as it usually does. I am glad we didn't send him to AAA because his "results" were bad.

[tobi0040]

Pino is pitching better than Meyer, and all the stats back that up, QUOTE]

 

Meyer's FIP is lower.

 

"It has been shown to be more effective than ERA in terms of predicting future performance and has become a mainstay in sabermetric analysis"

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/

[diehardtwinsfan]

I understand some inconsistencies. If a pitcher is getting hit very hard, BABIP will likely be higher for example.

 

But if you have a guy over 1,000 IP that has 26-33% of his runners scoring (veries yearly) and he is all the sudden at a clip of only 8.5%? If his BABIP is usually around .300 and he is at .222. He is extremely lucky. No doubt about it.

 

The same was true about Phil Hughes after 3 starts. 41% of his balls in play were hits and a crazy amount of his base runners were scoring. He had a 7+ ERA and a FIP in the low 3's. What has happened since? ERA tracked FIP as it usually does. I am glad we didn't send him to AAA because his "results" were bad.

 

Using this logic we should dump Phil Hughes too, as his last 1000 innings and this season are about as extreme as Pino and this season. People can improve. Perhaps Pino has figured something out... who knows.

 

I'm not saying Pino is the answer here, but I don't think it's worth getting worked up about calling him up. As Dave pointed out, he's doing something right. There's no harm in letting him try it out at the ML level for a few starts to see if it translates. As well, in terms of results, Pino is gettin them... luck or not. Perhaps he comes up and just gets shelled, but I see no harm in giving him a shot.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

There's debate within the SABR community about how to handle BABIP - there are components of it that are luck, components that depend on the hitter, components that depend on the defense (both skill and defensive shifts), and variables like the kind of "stuff" a pitcher has on a given day.

This article on Baseball Prospectus has a ton of the arguments for and against BABIP's relationship to luck:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20140

 

Back to the original topic - Whether Pino can hang his hat on superior skills or superior luck, either way management has decided that they'd rather have Pino than Deduno on Thursday, and they might (and probably will) make another move based on how Pino does against the White Sox.

 

I think the move is based a great deal on Deduno's last two bad starts, and the Front office wanting to see someone else take his turn this time through the rotation. It was Pino's turn in the rotation, and he's been better than Deduno so far this year.

[drivlikejehu]

Using this logic we should dump Phil Hughes too, as his last 1000 innings and this season are about as extreme as Pino and this season. People can improve. Perhaps Pino has figured something out... who knows.

 

This is just not correct. Hughes' fielding independent numbers confirm his improvement. Pino's do not.

 

Stranding over 90% of baserunners is not a skill. It cannot be maintained by any pitcher on the planet at any level. Having a lower BABIP than Mariano Rivera is not a sustainable skill for a 29 year old journeyman who throws 85.

 

The resources are out there to learn about why those things are true. It's not productive to argue against uncontested facts.

[tobi0040]

This is just not correct. Hughes' fielding independent numbers confirm his improvement. Pino's do not.

 

Stranding over 90% of baserunners is not a skill. It cannot be maintained by any pitcher on the planet at any level. Having a lower BABIP than Mariano Rivera is not a sustainable skill for a 29 year old journeyman who throws 85.

 

The resources are out there to learn about why those things are true. It's not productive to argue against uncontested facts.

 

I completely agree. Even prior to this year, if you look at Hughes ERA outside of Yankee stadium it was 4.11. Clearly that, his age, his stuff, and his K rate suggest we should not dump him. Nor does his career 4.15 FIP, which is still inflated because of all the HR's and doubles he gave up in the old Yankee stadium.

 

This comp does not make any sense to me.

[Shane Wahl]

The only trade value Pino is going to have is in a package with someone else headlining the trade (dear god let that end up being Correia).

[TheLeviathan]

The only trade value Pino is going to have is in a package with someone else headlining the trade (dear god let that end up being Correia).

 

Duensing. Clearly.

[jokin]

This is just not correct. Hughes' fielding independent numbers confirm his improvement. Pino's do not.

 

Stranding over 90% of baserunners is not a skill. It cannot be maintained by any pitcher on the planet at any level. Having a lower BABIP than Mariano Rivera is not a sustainable skill for a 29 year old journeyman who throws 85.

The resources are out there to learn about why those things are true. It's not productive to argue against uncontested facts.

 

The Twins appear to be in denial about all of these basic facts, and this after all of that public gnashing of teeth about the alleged "mystery" of who to call up. And this after calling up Albers, Walters, DeVries, et al....all of whom demonstrated unsustainable "mastery" of AAA.

 

Oh BTW, the facts are even worse for Pino in terms of his age, he actually turns 31 before the end of this year. Maybe you were thinking of our other prize 29-year-old journeyman, Kris Johnson?

[DaveW]

The only trade value Pino is going to have is in a package with someone else headlining the trade (dear god let that end up being Correia).

 

I'm sure plenty of people would have said that in re: to Butera as well, if Pino can show some success/value in the majors, he will have trade value.

[jokin]

Okay, strip away what the future may hold and what our projections are for M and M, and who right now, is the best starter on the Red Wings? Who has the best line? I get the eagerness to get M and M started in the bigs, get them acclimated so that next season they can hit the ground running. But who right now holds the best record in Rochester? For me, that's who you try next, regardless. That's the hot ticket. And maybe because Pino has been a minor league journeyman he busts out here. But I'm all for thinking that calling up the one who has done the best right now, this year, is the move to make to help us right now.

 

Except that Pino is not doing the best in Rochester right now, your assumptions about who's best at Roc. don't fly under simple, less than rigorous, scrutiny. Calling for calling up M & M isn't overblown eagerness, it's just basic logic based on pretty overwhelming data points- deserved promotions for both M & M, and also for what's best for the team, both for now and for the long-term.

[DaveW]

The Twins appear to be in denial about all of these basic facts, and this after all of that public gnashing of teeth about the alleged "mystery" of who to call up. And this after calling up Albers, Walters, DeVries, et al....all of whom demonstrated unsustainable "mastery" of AAA.

 

Oh BTW, the facts are even worse for Pino in terms of his age, he actually turns 31 before the end of this year. Maybe you were thinking of our other prize 29-year-old journeyman, Kris Johnson?

 

I don't understand the DeVries hate, he did pretty admirably for the Twins in 2012 where he started 16 games, gave them a 4.11 ERA and 100 ERA+, was he ever a long term answer? Of course not, but he filled in just fine.

 

Albers was a nice story and gave the Twins a couple nice starts, what harm did he cause them? (He also had a 100 ERA+ in his time with the Twins)

 

If anything the Twins have been pretty good at figuring out a way to bring up short term stop gaps who will actually be a benefit to the team.

[DaveW]

Except that Pino is not doing the best in Rochester right now,

 

Pino by far has the best results at AAA based on his ERA, WHIP, and k/bb rate. That really can't be refuted.

 

Nobody here is saying Pino is some better long term answer then May/Meyer, they are simply saying he has more then earned a spot start chance, and gives the Twins a better chance to win then if DeDuno was starting tomorrow.

[jokin]

I'm sure plenty of people would have said that in re: to Butera as well, if Pino can show some success/value in the majors, he will have trade value.

 

Imagine what we can get for Eric Fryer?....and unlike Pino, he actually has some limited major league experience. Why, this team is just chock full of previously unclaimed reclamation projects with secret trade value- just waiting to be scooped up by other teams.

[Squirrel]

Pino by far has the best results at AAA based on his ERA, WHIP, and k/bb rate. That really can't be refuted.

 

Nobody here is saying Pino is some better long term answer then May/Meyer, they are simply saying he has more then earned a spot start chance, and gives the Twins a better chance to win then if DeDuno was starting tomorrow.

 

Exactly.

[jokin]

Pino by far has the best results at AAA based on his ERA, WHIP, and k/bb rate. That really can't be refuted.

 

Nobody here is saying Pino is some better long term answer then May/Meyer, they are simply saying he has more then earned a spot start chance, and gives the Twins a better chance to win then if DeDuno was starting tomorrow.

 

Exactly.

 

Exactly what? As we've all-too-frequently seen in the recent past (Albers, Walters, DeVries), you are quoting the least-important, least-predictive stats to construct a house of cards argument.

[tobi0040]

Pino by far has the best results at AAA based on his ERA, WHIP, and k/bb rate. That really can't be refuted.

 

Nobody here is saying Pino is some better long term answer then May/Meyer, they are simply saying he has more then earned a spot start chance, and gives the Twins a better chance to win then if DeDuno was starting tomorrow.

 

If we knew, or even thought this was a spot start, nobody would be too worked up about it. Nobody from the organization has stated that is the goal, this is speculation at this point.

 

Further, most of the comments defending this move have pointed out that Pino is the most deserving guy and the one who helps us win now. After these comments have been pushed back by suggesting luck has played a role in his 2014, it seems now settle down this is a spot start comments have come out.

[drivlikejehu]

Pino by far has the best results at AAA based on his ERA, WHIP, and k/bb rate. That really can't be refuted.

 

 

May has hit fewer batters than Pino. That really can't be refuted. But just like your facts, it doesn't matter.

 

Your false claims of Pino's superior performance have been refuted over and over. You are factually wrong.