Kyle Gibson a Top 20 Pitcher?

[stringer bell]

A comment on Scott Erickson: Until he hurt his arm in '91, he wasn't just good, he was far better than that. He was an extreme GB pitcher with a moving hard sinker that hitters really struggled to square up or elevate. His sinker lost bite after he experienced the (elbow?) injury in '91. After that he had moments, including a no-hitter, but his stuff wasn't as good. He learned to pitch with merely good stuff and was pretty good for quite a while, but he was an earlier version of B Webb prior to the injury.

[nicksaviking]

 

FB%: 29.0% (8th)

GB%: 54.8% (5th)

 

Wha?!? Top 8 in FB and GB? Does that seem strange to anyone? Clearly the lack of strikeouts will mean his other in-play percentages will be higher, but his LD% is also low. I can't tell if this is exceptional or lucky to the point that it's going to implode.

 

How can he be getting guys to induce both a high number of weak ground balls and weak pop ups? It seems odd that his pitches would almost always be missing the square part of the bat both above AND below.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Finally, do we have the exception to the rule that Pitch to Contact is a flawed concept?

 

Through yesterday's game, here are the important 2014 stats for Gibson's success that rank in the Top 20 in the AL:

 

FB%: 29.0% (8th)

GB%: 54.8% (5th)

LD%: 16.3% (4th)

IFFB%: 16.4% (2nd)

GB/FB: 1.89 (6TH)

K%: 11.9% (3rd Worst)

fWAR: 1.2 (Tied for 20th)

 

In 3 starts in June, Gibson has improved on most of these stats, most striking are his June #s in:

 

IFFB% of 35.7% which ranks 1st

GB% of 64.4% which ranks 3rd

LD% of 11.9% which ranks 2nd

 

So even though he's not missing many bats, batters are either pounding it into the ground, or largely doing the next best thing to a strike out- weakly popping the ball up to an infielder. As the previous study suggested, Gibson is being hit, but ranks with the best in limiting hard hit balls. This phenomena seems to be more than purely luck-related.

 

While he's definitely not a Top 20 pitcher, Gibson has apparently earned Gardy's confidence, when a strikeout was called for in high leverage situations- and even in the situation with 2 outs in the 7th, where Gardy in the past would surely have pulled Gibson- Gibson got weakly hit pop-ups or ground balls. So while SIERA loves Phil Hughes in June- Hughes sits at 2.69, while Gibson's SIERA for June comes in at 3.97......I think the Twins will be quite pleased if Gibson's ERA comes in somewhere close to that number as the season progresses.

 

Great breakdown.

[jokin]

Wha?!? Top 8 in FB and GB? Does that seem strange to anyone? Clearly the lack of strikeouts will mean his other in-play percentages will be higher, but his LD% is also low. I can't tell if this is exceptional or lucky to the point that it's going to implode.

 

How can he be getting guys to induce both a high number of weak ground balls and weak pop ups? It seems odd that his pitches would almost always be missing the square part of the bat both above AND below.

 

Yep. I did a double-take as I was transcribing the stats, but I was motivated to check on the numbers because I noticed how many IF FB and GB he was getting last night. I had no idea where he ranked in FB%- stunning. And from game-to-game, Gibson's pitch chart can vary wildly from primarily down-in-the-zone to up-in-the-zone- so no help there. I was waiting for Cabrera or VMart to really sock one good last night, and they looked like they kept guessing wrong all night, resulting in very weakly hit balls.

[ALessKosherScott]

And that's still a good comp, IMO. A guy who is serviceable with the occasional luck-driven year where he's really good.

 

It's not-so-much luck driven as it is sometimes his flaws don't show as deeply.

 

Erickson was the #3 starter on the 1991 Twins, not some proto-Brandon Webb type. He was lights out against right-handed hitting that year (.191/.255/.290 2.62 K/BB) and challenged against left-handed pitching (.295/.363/.424 0.89 K/BB). Erickson had a great power sinker and slider, but not much else and that's not a good arsenal for getting lefties out.

 

Gibson is pretty much operating with the same pitches. And you could see the pluses and minuses really clearly in the Tigers game. That sinker he threw to get Miguel Cabrera to ground into a bases-loaded double play was a thing of beauty, and his three strikeouts were all people chasing sliders out of the zone. But it's harder to get an opposite-hand hitter to chase a slider out of the zone. Not impossible, Andrew Romaine did. But harder. Example, the Alex Avila at-bat in the seventh. Gibson goes up 1-2 in the count, and then tries to get Avila to chase two sliders out of the zone, to which Avila lays off. Then, he fouls off a sinker and nails a 3-2 changeup into the gap for a double. Long story short, there's a reason Gibson is carrying a big lefty/righty spilt this year, as he did most of the way through the minors.

 

Brandon Webb didn't become Brandon Webb until he developed a better changeup in 2006 to hold lefties at bay. Tim Hudson has his splitter. Roy Halladay had his curve. But for every pitcher who figures out a new wrinkle, there are ten power sinker pitchers like Erickson or Jeff Weaver who keep heading down the same path. So the question becomes what trick can Gibson come up with to stop lefties?

[tobi0040]

Erickson's ERA was 4.27 through age 32, before his extended injury/hanger-on phase. And that was in a pretty good offensive environment, so it was a 105 ERA+. And remember, that was over 10 seasons, 2000 innings. Look at the ERA/IP rank chart I posted above. I think Erickson is getting under-rated around here, big time.

 

Gibson right now is at 3.91 ERA, pretty much equal to his FIP, and it is only a 102 ERA+ in the current offensive environment.

 

Oh, and league K/9 was a lot lower in Erickson's time (and BB/9 was actually slightly higher too), so even if Gibson matches his modest peripherals, he's not as likely to have sustained success with them in 2014 and beyond.

 

 

 

Webb met or exceeded the league K/9 every season of his career, I believe. Gibson is at 60% of the league K/9 this year.

 

Also, like Erickson, Webb was pitching in a much higher offensive environment. Webb's career 3.27 ERA was good for a 142 ERA+. That's like 2.90 in the present-day AL. Gibson has to work on sustaining 3.90 before we should even mention Brandon Webb.

 

The Webb comp was more style than anything. The more Gibson's GB/K rates come closer to Webb, the better off he will be. That was my point. Gibson will K more than 4.5 per 9, his stuff is too good to be in Carlos Silva territory. He was double that in the minors and had a decent 7.7 K per 9 in AAA just last year (post TJ).

 

I think he could be a #2 starter and his recipe being a good GB rate, a low HR rate, and 6-7 K's per 9.

[Lonestar]

Brandon Webb didn't become Brandon Webb until he developed a better changeup in 2006 to hold lefties at bay. Tim Hudson has his splitter. Roy Halladay had his curve. But for every pitcher who figures out a new wrinkle, there are ten power sinker pitchers like Erickson or Jeff Weaver who keep heading down the same path. So the question becomes what trick can Gibson come up with to stop lefties?

Most pitchers don't add the curve at this stage. You have already mentioned Cuellar's changeup. I was thinking of a japanese splitter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Webb comp was more style than anything. The more Gibson's GB/K rates come closer to Webb, the better off he will be. That was my point. Gibson will K more than 4.5 per 9, his stuff is too good to be in Carlos Silva territory. He was double that in the minors and had a decent 7.7 K per 9 in AAA just last year (post TJ).

 

I think he could be a #2 starter and his recipe being a good GB rate, a low HR rate, and 6-7 K's per 9.

 

I know, you qualified your Webb comp, I was just fired up from my Erickson defense.

 

Others certainly know his "stuff" better than I, but I don't think Gibson's minor league K rates are evidence of much of anything at this point.

[Doug Y]

Gibby is looking good today. 8 Ks already!

[70charger]

Anyone rethinking their vote? http://twinsdaily.com/showthread.php/11077-Will-Kyle-Gibson-be-a-first-ballot-hall-of-famer?highlight=kyle+gibson+ballot

[tobi0040]

Gibby is looking good today. 8 Ks already!

 

7 IP, H, 8 K. Pretty pedestrian.

[Doug Y]

7 IP, H, 8 K. Pretty pedestrian.

 

 

You think 1 hit and 8 Ks over 7 IP is pedestrian? I'll take it every single time.