Super 2 Cutoff

[Beezer07]

It's good to know the Twins FO posts here.

 

This seems like an unfair response to a well-written and well-thought-out post.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If you move up Meyer before next season, it's one year earlier to free agency - that's what the Twins are thinking.

 

No, it's not. To get an extra year of service time, the Twins would have to wait until May of 2015 to promote Meyer.

 

And that seems like pretty poor resource management. Meyer will be 25 next season. Start the clock on him this season and let him take his licks against MLB hitters for awhile.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If you move up Meyer before next season, it's one year earlier to free agency - that's what the Twins are thinking.

 

If called up right now and never demoted again, Alex Meyer would not be a free agent until age 31. I doubt the Twins are concerned about that. (To get an extra year of control, you'd have to keep him in the minors until May 2015... but then he'd be a 2015 Super-2 player, with 4 years of arbitration salaries instead of 3... unless you kept him down until July 2015... and the cycle continues )

 

If he was near a shutdown point in terms of innings or fatigue, I'd say wait. But he still has almost 100 IP left before the suggested 2014 limit. He could come up today and take regular turns in the MLB rotation until Sep. 1st and not exceed that limit. (And his more recent pitch count limit suggests to me they want save some of those innings for MLB, maybe even into September if he's pitching well?)

[Brock Beauchamp]

(And his more recent pitch count limit suggests to me they want save some of those innings for MLB, maybe even into September if he's pitching well?)

 

My thoughts as well. I think the Twins are artificially keeping his innings count low so that he can pitch deeper into the season with some of those innings coming in Minnesota.

[Willihammer]

Well, the consensus seems to be that 2.111 days of service time is the probably cutoff, at least that's what every article is saying about the timing of Gregory Polanco's promotion.

 

In other words, if May pitched tonight, instead of Correia, and remained healthy through the rest of 2014-2016, he'd be in the same boat as Polanco at 2.111 days.

[BK432]

Personally, pitchers get a finite amount of bullets... and I'd let them fly in the Show.

 

This is the point that gets lost far too often. When pitchers are ready, they should be moved up. No point in wasting a lot of these bullets in MiLB.

[70charger]

I would never worry about the Super-2 deadline with pitchers. Ever. There's just too much that can happen, both injury-wise and through ineffectiveness. With pitchers I'd care more about that extra year of control (which is basically two starts at the beginning of a career) and leave them in the minors. At this point, though, there shouldn't be anything holding the Twins back from giving them a chance.

 

But of course, the Twins are consistently saying it's about "consistency".

 

Personally, pitchers get a finite amount of bullets... and I'd let them fly in the Show.

 

 

I agree with this and would take it even further. I don't care about Super 2 period, for pitchers or for hitters. The cool thing about arbitration is that they won't be paid more than they've proven they're worth. (And honestly, in the first couple years of arbitration, they may still end up underpaid anyway.) What's a few million extra when you can transition a top prospect the major leagues in his prime years? Hell, I'll gladly pay more for age 27 if it means he's in the majors at age 24. Right?

 

I do agree about the extra year of control, though. But that deadline is far earlier than Super 2, so I just can't bring myself to care about what they might (might!) get paid with one more year of arbitration.

[BK432]

70charger, I completely agree. We far too often consider the actual financial cost without paying any attention to or measuring the hidden costs/benefits. Thrown pitches at AAA, prime years production, arbitration year value for team, as well as pragmatic value props like fans staying more engaged because it senses you are trying to win.

 

I am a Twins apologist by nature and patient to an extreme, so I'm not one to shout from the mountaintops or anything, but there is actually no reason to wait any longer to promote May and Meyer. In fact, there are genuine, tangible reasons why any other decision is a foolish one financially.

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins maybe need to take a page out of the Yankees old playbook. Just start trading your prospects for established players. If you are not going to reward players for their success swing a deal and get something now and win.

 

So, who do you bring up? If it's a reward for their success, then it should be 1.) May, 2.) Johnson, 3.) Achter, 4.) Pino, 5.) Meyer...

[Seth Stohs]

This is the point that gets lost far too often. When pitchers are ready, they should be moved up. No point in wasting a lot of these bullets in MiLB.

 

But "ready" in whose mind? Ours? Just checking.

[jokin]

So, who do you bring up? If it's a reward for their success, then it should be 1.) May, 2.) Johnson, 3.) Achter, 4.) Pino, 5.) Meyer...

 

Johnson already was "rewarded" this year (not too impressively). You didn't mention Darnell, and he vastly outperformed Johnson in his major league appearance. Pino is a minor league journeyman. Achter is having a good year, but there's a reason he is a relief pitcher.

 

You should reward the best talent if it's a close call, therefore... May...Meyer...

[70charger]

But "ready" in whose mind? Ours? Just checking.

 

Speaking for myself, yes. But I also fully accept that what I think may differ from what the front office thinks. But since so much of this is speculation anyway, my position is that, if I were GM, when the pitcher is ready and there is a spot open, I move him up regardless of where the Super 2 deadline is. Lots of "ifs." The one thing that isn't really an "if" in my mind is whether or not the Super 2 deadline applies.

[Otto von Ballpark]

So, who do you bring up? If it's a reward for their success, then it should be 1.) May, 2.) Johnson, 3.) Achter, 4.) Pino, 5.) Meyer...

 

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

 

It's been an encouraging staff down there for sure, but Johnson and Pino are each in their 6th season in AAA. And Achter is a reliever (Pino has been one too).

 

Promotion should be based on not just performance, but also talent (and of course position and duration of need -- no sense activating Meyer for a single spot start). If Meyer and May are anywhere close to Johnson & Pino in performance, they should get the first nods for any long-term MLB starting pitching openings.

[BK432]

But "ready" in whose mind? Ours? Just checking.

 

Well, that's always subjective, isn't it? Fans probably have a tendency to be too aggressive, while owners may tend to protect the perceived pocketbook too often. Tough to say, but the numbers put up lately by May especially would tell most that he can compete well at the MLB level. Tough to argue against Meyer as well, though there's a bit less of a track record there.

[jorgenswest]

It is not possible to be ready to pitch consistently in the major leagues by pitching to AAA hitters. That may take 50 major league starts following successful accomplishment of AAA.

 

It also is not possible to look at AAA data beyond the basic rate numbers (K, BB, GB, FB) in support of an argument over who should be called up.

 

I do hope May and Meyer will start their major league adjustment soon. I expect struggle and would not be surprised if they performed similarly to Gibson's 2013.

[Siehbiscuit]

I am still in the camp of bringing May and Meyer up and putting them in medium to low leverage situations out of the bullpen a la the Cardinals. It saves innings on their arms and they can get a taste of the big show. Guys like Burton and Guerrier are a dime a dozen. I would think even Correia has more value than they do. If Correia is awful move him to the bullpen (or DFA eventually) and promote May or Meyer to the rotation. Meyer still isn't even on the 40-man yet.

[Seth Stohs]

Promotion should be based on not just performance, but also talent (and of course position and duration of need -- no sense activating Meyer for a single spot start). If Meyer and May are anywhere close to Johnson & Pino in performance, they should get the first nods for any long-term MLB starting pitching openings.

 

I 100% agree with this... but someone made the comment that it was about rewarding performance, and if that's the case, Meyer is down the chart. Not that he's pitching poorly by any means...

 

When the front office says it's about who is ready, it has to more with a lot more than just numbers. it's about readiness, and it's about them being able to succeed.

 

For Pino, there's clearly some reason that he has never been given a chance despite being pretty solid in AAA for a long time. For him, I'd love to see a cup of coffee and just see if it could possibly translate at all (not likely).

 

For Achter, we don't know. Yes, he's a reliever, but he's dominating in a way that Tonkin hasn't. Tonkin is the better prospect and may have the better future, but at some point, when you're pitching like Achter, you have earned a shot too.

 

May and Meyer, clearly, are the guys with the bigger futures (in theory based on prospect status which is based on "stuff", "Makeup", scouting reports and much more). They will both get their shots. No question about it, and we hope that at least one of them can be a 2 or 3, and maybe even a true #1 (though those are so rare)... They'll get there, but my thing is that it 1.) can't be about the numbers alone, and 2.) I won't pretend I know what's best for them. If they aren't up, there is some reason, and I will not believe that it's because of the Futures Game or even the Super 2.