Wait . . . What did Gardy just say?

[Beemo]

I always like how the Twins like to say a player needs to be more consistent when they really mean he has to be better. I think Correia has been pretty consistent this year. If he got more consistent, he'd probably have an ERA around 8 or so.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If Gardy says the reason Correia is staying in the rotation is the money he's making, it almost sounds like he'd make the move if he could but the FO is forcing him to keep running out Correia.

 

The manager really shouldn't care one way or another about how much money a guy's making. All the manager should worry about is winning games.

 

On second glance, I thought this too. (Could also just be Gardy rambling and saying nothing at all, of course.)

[cmathewson]

"He's paid good money to do that" sounds like an indictment of the FO, when that means putting meatballs on a "T". Maybe it's his way of touting the company line with a tinge of sarcasm.

[DaveW]

Embarrassing .......and unjustifiable. Worst starter in the majors, and they have guys dominating AAA, and he stays up here.....ya, they are really trying hard to win this year.

 

I wan't May/Meyer up as much as anyone, but please, let's cut down on the hyperbole. Neither May or Meyer are "dominating" AAA, both look great, but both have some red flags still.

 

Correia, though frustrating actually had put together 3 solid games prior to last night. I'm guessing if he has a significant slide again (3 out of 4 bad starts) he will be gone.

[DaveW]

I don't think he's trying to disparage May, for instance. I think he's trying to keep our expectations honest. May has had some really good outings but has had some issues with walks and has been able to get minor league hitters to chase a bit. When he gets up here, he's probably going to get knocked around and sent back down before he figures it out long term. But I think a lot of people see his sub 3.00 era and more strike outs than innings pitched and think he's a front of the rotation starter.

 

I guess I just don't read his comment the same way as you did.

 

Agreed, also I think he was saying that in response to all the writers/bloggers/fans clamoring up and down for May/Meyer up RIGHT NOW. Additionally, he is right, they have been up and down.

[Mike Sixel]

Thirty straight innings without an earned run is not dominating? Worst ERA in baseball is not bad enough for you for him to be considered bad?

[DaveW]

Fans love unseen prospects like they love the back up QB.

 

I was seriously about to do a response stating this but saw that you beat me too it.

[TheLeviathan]

I struggle to define "dominating" if May's last two months are not that. Perhaps you could help?

[DaveW]

Thirty straight innings without an earned run is not dominating? Worst ERA in baseball is not bad enough for you for him to be considered bad?

Yes, those were a really nice 4 games, fueled somewhat but a lucky .219 BABIP. He also has had some bad starts, and still is walking too many folks in some of his games. Gardy is right, he has been up and down.

 

Don't get me wrong, I have high hopes for May, but he isn't exactly a can't miss guy, and I could see his BB issues biting him big time in the ass in the majors where hitters are much more patient.

[DuluthFan]

Kevin Coreia is not tradeable right now. He has not pitched well enough for any other team to say "Hey, we need that guy". If he was pitching well enough, the Twins would have no reason to trade him in the first place.

 

Keep in mind other teams have minor league systems as well. They would most likely try to go through their own minor leaguers before looking at an outside player. After the other teams have gone through their minor league backups, then we will see the trade rumors float about. That probably won't happen until closer to the trade deadline.

 

Another thing holding the Twins from making a move is their own promotion system. In the past, the Twins have made system promotions near the midway point of the season and near the end of the season. The Twins usually wait until closer to the all star games before making the first promotions. They will want to allow any of their minor leaguers to make their all star games if they are named. The end of the year promotions will also depend upon the playoff situations of their teams.

 

So unless an injury occurs to Coreia, he is in the rotation until the around the all star game or trade deadline at the earliest and the September call up period at the latest.

[cmathewson]

Thirty straight innings without an earned run is not dominating? Worst ERA in baseball is not bad enough for you for him to be considered bad?

 

I watched that Yankees game--his best game of the year--and he was extraordinarily lucky. He had the bases loaded with nobody out and the heart of the order coming up in the first inning, and the Yankees didn't score. He left the bases loaded in the second inning and only gave up one run. If he isn't so lucky in either of those innings, the whole fan base would be clamoring for a DFA.

 

What we saw last night is a decent game for him. It's why he has a 7 ERA or something. I would argue that the Twins have five pitchers who would be better right now and who would have a future with the club beyond the trade deadline (May, Johnson, Meyer, Darnell, Gilmartin). If you have both those things for any one pitcher, you should make the move now. The fact that they won't do it is a slap in the face to fans.

[gunnarthor]

Thirty straight innings without an earned run is not dominating?

I believe Nick Blackburn holds the team record for scoreless innings - something like 44 innings.

 

I found an article on it: "Nick Blackburn pitched seven shutout innings to lead the Rochester Red Wings to a 4-1 win over the visiting Ottawa Lynx Monday afternoon.With the victory, Rochester (68-56) moved to within 1 1/2 games of first-place Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in the International League's North Division.

Blackburn (7-1) yielded just five hits -- none of which went for extra bases -- and did not allow a runner past second base. The 25-year-old right-hander struck out three and did not issue a walk en route to snapping his streak of four consecutive no-decisions. The shutout effort was Blackburn's first since having his 44-inning scoreless streak snapped against Buffalo on July 3. Blackburn, who started the season as a member of the Double-A New Britain Rock Cats, has compiled a stellar 2.14 ERA over 92 1/3 innings pitched with the Red Wings."

Now, I do think May is a better prospect than Blackburn was right now, although Blackburn did get ranked the #56 prospect in baseball after that season so maybe he wasn't. But stat lines alone aren't enough to say if someone is dominating. I do like May (a lot). I think he should be in the rotation right now (replacing Deduno if not Correia). But I'm not overly concerned about letting Correia get another few starts to get back on track. We're going to need innings from our starters and Correia isn't this bad.

[minny&paul]

You can say Correia isn't this bad (although I agree with the poster who notes he has had good luck in some of his less disastrous recent starts). But the thing is, Correia has never been good. He has never had a full season of even average ERA+ as a starter. That's in seven full years, and he sure doesn't look like he'll do it this year either.

 

That's maybe my biggest Correia complaint. Even if he turns it around, how good do you expect him to be? If you say "at least average and maybe better," what's the evidence for that?

[drivlikejehu]

We know Correia isn't good. Exactly how bad he is, that's debatable... but to what end?

 

Does he help the team win more games this year? No.

 

Does he help the team win more games in the future? No.

 

So as Gardy said, Correia is in the rotation because the front office is paying him to be. That's it.

[LewFordLives]

BURN THE POWDER BLUES!!! The combination of the uniforms and quality of the play on the field gave me horrifying flashbacks to 1983. The powder blues are cursed. Send them back to the void from which they came.

[minny&paul]

By the way, regarding Blackburn, he was just a touch better than average in ERA+ his first two years with the Twins.

[minny&paul]

By the way, in all the Correia-related discussion, let's not lose sight of the fact that the Twins are 25-21 when someone else starts. Who would have predicted THAT at the beginning of the year. Go Twins!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Kevin Coreia is not tradeable right now. He has not pitched well enough for any other team to say "Hey, we need that guy". If he was pitching well enough, the Twins would have no reason to trade him in the first place.

 

So we have to keep starting Correia because... he's pitching terrible?

 

Trade is far from the only way to remove him from the rotation. I say, shuffle him off to the bullpen, maybe in place of Guerrier -- it would be nice to have another long man instead of Guerrier anyway.

[TheLeviathan]

Why is Nick Blackburn even in this conversation? You could dig up all sorts of obscure stuff like that but it's a rather faulty notion of how to judge a player. And a terrible argument for why Correia > May as an option right now.

 

It's completely irrelevant.

[Mike Sixel]

Just cut him! three good starts is not going to get you a prospect, it just isn't.

 

question for all the defenders....how many more bad starts before you would move on to another option?

[JB_Iowa]

To the best of my knowledge, Gardenhire did not sign Correia to a 2-year contract. Nor can Gardenhire make the decision to "Marquis" him and eat his salary.

 

I wouldn't expect Gardenhire to say anything different than he did in public. I do hope that isn't the same thing he is saying in meetings with the FO.

[Mike Sixel]

Question for all the "we need depth guys".....

 

IF Diamond is in AAA, and he won't be ruined by rushing him, why is Diamond not up? If he's not good enough to come up and replace the SP with the worst ERA in baseball, why bother keeping him on the 40 man at all at this point?

 

The Twins need good players, not lots of bad players blocking prospects.

[chopper0080]

This is what has burned me out regarding the Twins and their overall approach to building a team. They are going with a youth movement while having a manager and front office who seem to be reluctant to commit to it. It isn't about rushing guys up, but it is about developing talent. Facts are that you have several SP prospects at AAA who would benefit from time at the major league level and you have a pitcher in Correia who is terrible. Bring up May, give him a taste. If he is successful, great, keep him up. If he struggles, move him back down to work on what he struggled with and bring up Darnell or Meyer and repeat. Say what you want about Hicks, we are finding out what we need to know about him. That is important when it comes to long term team building. Hicks has struggled, but pro sports are about making adjustments, and either Hicks will or he won't. At least we can then move Rosario back to OF to prepare if Hicks can't adjust.

 

Arcia has been moved up and has done well. Dozier was given rope and has flourished. Plouffe is showing what he is. Hicks is showing what he is. The main goal to building a team through a farm system is getting answers concerning your prospects. The only way to do that is to play them, see where they struggle and see if they can adjust. Have an environment that promotes that it is ok to struggle as long as you work to adjust. Correia doesn't give us any answers other than we will not be re-signing him.

[Mike Sixel]

This is what..... him.

 

great post, and avatar!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Question for all the "we need depth guys".....

 

IF Diamond is in AAA, and he won't be ruined by rushing him, why is Diamond not up? If he's not good enough to come up and replace the SP with the worst ERA in baseball, why bother keeping him on the 40 man at all at this point?

 

The Twins need good players, not lots of bad players blocking prospects.

 

Diamond is already off the 40-man roster. He cleared waivers this spring at the same time as Parmelee and accepted an assignment to AAA.

[jorgenswest]

On FIP...

 

While it is more predictive than ERA at large enough sample sizes, the sample isn't large enough yet. Since it is HR based, it takes quite a while for that rate to stabilize. xFIP relies on HR/FB which would stabilize earlier at around 400 fly balls. Correia hasn't even faced 400 batters yet.

 

So at this point FIP doesn't describe good luck or bad luck, it is still too volatile at this sample.

 

Strike out rate, walk rate, ground ball rate and fly ball rate are passing the small sample threshold and should be considered. Have they changed over the last year? Ground balls and walks are lower. Fly ball rate is greater. Strike outs about the same.

 

So no, I would not want my manger talking about FIP at this sample. The observations of the coaching staff on Correia 's effectiveness pitching have much more value than FIP.

[adjacent]

Gardy's answer the only thing that says to me is that he is going to make the next start. Basically he is saying I have him in my roster, he is going to start. Not really a lot of praise in there. Yes he could have avoided mentioning the guys in AAA, but the fact that he mention them, is telling me that they are thinking serioulsly about it. By the way, Correa was pitching in one of the games I attended. Even when he is pitching well (getting lucky) from the sounds of the bats you can tell that the guys can really square his pitches. Sometimes he get lucky and are all hit to people. But the babip sometimes in not only luck, is that they are hitting you really hard.

[bird]

How about "Right now he's one of the guys that has been made available to me. Until that changes, he'll start"

 

The fact that he's smart enough not to say this is why he manages a clubhouse as well as any manager in baseball. And what you're suggesting is paramount to throwing his front office under a bus. How stupid would THAT be?

[bird]

Are people so sure that May, Meyer, Darnell, or Johnson would come up here and immediately be superior to Correia? My bet is that every one of them would absolutely stink up the joint in most of their first 10 starts if they were brought up today. Maybe in a couple of months they'll be ready to only stink up half their starts. What's the hurry? They're getting great experience right where they are. And by the way, Gardy's description of "up and down" is spot on for all of these guys. It's delusional to think any of them, May included, are absolutely dominating AAA.

[The Wise One]

There are 96 pitchers right now listed as having pitched enough qualified innings. Correia 67 in WAR Nolasco 75, Correia 69 in FIP, Nolasco 77 Correia 88 in xfip, Nolasco 74. For those who use BABIP as a justification as your pitcher being unlucky, There are only 2 pitchers starting in MLB ball with a worse BABIP. Strasburg and Zimmerman of the Nationals. Nolasco is only slightly less unlucky than Correia. After the already mentioned pitchers there is Cliff Lee then Nolasco. Such elite company to be unlucky to be in.

Gardenhire has 2 free agent pitchers pitching poorly, though not so poorly as to be labeled the worst starter in mlb as some here on the board have stated. He can't go negative on one as someone will bring up the other.

In terms of trade value. Correia is not pitching that much differently than his career numbers.