Jon Jay

[DaveW]

Never saw a thread on here, but apparently the Twins have some interest in Cardinals CF Jon Jay.

 

Not the sexiest player alive, but Jay is a very consistent CF who would instantly improve this team at their weakest position.

 

He will give you close to a .290 BA with a .750 OPS, and his CF defense, while not spectacular rates somewhere close to the league average for CF.

 

Assuming the price is right, I imagine you have to explore bringing him in? Best case scenario is he preforms well this year, and can always be traded out again once Hicks/Buxton are ready for the position full time. Additionally he hits enough where he wouldn't kill your team in LF/RF for a time as well.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah but St Louis won't give him away and I don't really want to give up anything of real value for him.

[Squirrel]

He was talked about in another thread here.

[Willihammer]

Where did you hear? I can't find anything on MLBTR. Would love to swing a deal though.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Fein and a prospect seems like a lot to give up for him. I guess that serves as a reminder as to just how valuable a decent CF is. This really was a failure of the front office. Hicks needs to be playing every day in AAA, and I'm not sure Fuld is an every day player. At this point, I'd strongly consider DFAing Guerrier and adding some CF to the 40 man to act as a place holder to get Santana more reps at SS and Hicks some time in AAA.

[SwainZag]

Fein and a prospect seems like a lot to give up for him. I guess that serves as a reminder as to just how valuable a decent CF is. This really was a failure of the front office. Hicks needs to be playing every day in AAA, and I'm not sure Fuld is an every day player. At this point, I'd strongly consider DFAing Guerrier and adding some CF to the 40 man to act as a place holder to get Santana more reps at SS and Hicks some time in AAA.

 

I really think it depends on the prospect. Fien and a C prospect? Get it done. THe real question would be what to do with Jay after this season.

[Winston Smith]

I think he'd be a good pickup and not just if he's free. Stuff that's cheap or free usually turns out to be worth just that. He has a few years of control and would improve what is a poor outfield defensively.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah but St Louis won't give him away and I don't really want to give up anything of real value for him.

 

This is how I feel. On a team that is in flux, giving up pieces to shore up a temporary need seems foolish to me.

 

Centerfield will not be a problem next season unless Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton collapse. The likelihood of that happening is pretty low.

[DaveW]

This is how I feel. On a team that is in flux, giving up pieces to shore up a temporary need seems foolish to me.

 

Centerfield will not be a problem next season unless Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton collapse. The likelihood of that happening is pretty low.

 

It depends on what the exact ask is. As long as it isn't over the top I think you have to consider making the deal, as mentioned, you can always turn around and trade him again (for a similar package) a year away if Buxton etc are ready. Or you can have him play a pretty solid LF for you with Buxton in CF if Hicks totally bombs out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It depends on what the exact ask is. As long as it isn't over the top I think you have to consider making the deal, as mentioned, you can always turn around and trade him again (for a similar package) a year away if Buxton etc are ready. Or you can have him play a pretty solid LF for you with Buxton in CF if Hicks totally bombs out.

 

Sure, if the asking price is reasonable and you feel you can flip Jay next season for similar talent, you do that... But the Cards are a very well-run organization and they're smart as hell over there. They're not going to give up Jay for a price you can trade him away at next season. They'll probably start the bidding at Jose Berrios and fall back to Kennys Vargas-level talent (plus Fien) and not budge below that point.

 

The offer of Casey Fien and a C prospect is laughable. It's going to take a lot more than that to get Jay.

[whydidnt]

I think the Buxton injury changes things a bit. It's starting to look like a lost year for him, which pushes his debut back to late 2015, or 2016. Time for the Twins to start acting like a Major League team and get good major league players now. They can worry about what to do with Jay and CF if/when they actually have someone ready to play CF in the majors everyday. Of course it depends on the price, but a decent reliever and low level prospect won't do much long term damage....though I'm not sure I would include Fein.

[Mike Sixel]

Since they refuse to use them, I would think a bunch of AAA relievers and starters are available.

[TNTwinsFan]

Sure, if the asking price is reasonable and you feel you can flip Jay next season for similar talent, you do that... But the Cards are a very well-run organization and they're smart as hell over there. They're not going to give up Jay for a price you can trade him away at next season. They'll probably start the bidding at Jose Berrios and fall back to Kennys Vargas-level talent (plus Fien) and not budge below that point.

 

The offer of Casey Fien and a C prospect is laughable. It's going to take a lot more than that to get Jay.

 

Pino and Levi Michael/Polanco for Jay. Book it.

[whydidnt]

Sure, if the asking price is reasonable and you feel you can flip Jay next season for similar talent, you do that... But the Cards are a very well-run organization and they're smart as hell over there. They're not going to give up Jay for a price you can trade him away at next season. They'll probably start the bidding at Jose Berrios and fall back to Kennys Vargas-level talent (plus Fien) and not budge below that point.

 

The offer of Casey Fien and a C prospect is laughable. It's going to take a lot more than that to get Jay.

 

I disagree. He is not that good and is taking up space on their roster. If the price is truly Berrios or Vargas, then I say no way, but if that's the case the Cardinals will be burning a roster spot on the guy all year for nothing. He's not a top flight starter and the league knows that.

[SwainZag]

Sure, if the asking price is reasonable and you feel you can flip Jay next season for similar talent, you do that... But the Cards are a very well-run organization and they're smart as hell over there. They're not going to give up Jay for a price you can trade him away at next season. They'll probably start the bidding at Jose Berrios and fall back to Kennys Vargas-level talent (plus Fien) and not budge below that point.

 

The offer of Casey Fien and a C prospect is laughable. It's going to take a lot more than that to get Jay.

 

Well I certainly didn't say it was do-able, if I were the Twins though I'd be hard pressed to give up anything more than that with the current OF in the system.

[nicksaviking]

Pino and Levi Michael/Polanco for Jay. Book it.

 

Michael and Polanco aren't exactly interchangable as far as prospects go. I'm guessing hardly anyone here would want to give up Polanco in this deal while nearly everyone here would give up Michael without hesitation.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I disagree. He is not that good and is taking up space on their roster. If the price is truly Berrios or Vargas, then I say no way, but if that's the case the Cardinals will be burning a roster spot on the guy all year for nothing. He's not a top flight starter and the league knows that.

 

Jon Jay is roughly a 10 WAR player in five years of service time. The Cards are rightly going to ask a significant price for him. He's Denard Span-lite and the Twins got Alex Meyer for Span.

 

If I was the Cards, I'd start at Berrios and work down from there, but not very far down from there.

 

It's going to take real talent to get Jay, just as it took considerable talent to get Span. Maybe not a top 100 prospect but it's going to take more than Fien and a C prospect.

[ashbury]

The best part about Jay is the nickname shown on his b-r.com page: The Federalist.

 

The offer of Casey Fien and a C prospect is laughable. It's going to take a lot more than that to get Jay.

 

A lot? Nonsense. I just fired up Out Of The Park 15 and got him for Florimon, Herrmann, Beresford, Ortiz... and of course Duensing.

[Brock Beauchamp]

A lot? Nonsense. I just fired up Out Of The Park 15 and got him for Florimon, Herrmann, Beresford, Ortiz... and of course Duensing.

 

Hah! It's really easy to vet a trade.

 

Let's pretend the Twins have Jon Jay on their roster. A team offers them Casey Fien and Levi Michael in trade.

 

Do you make that trade? No? Then neither will the Cardinals, who might be the most well-run organization in Major League Baseball.

[whydidnt]

Jon Jay is roughly a 10 WAR player in five years of service time. The Cards are rightly going to ask a significant price for him. He's Denard Span-lite and the Twins got Alex Meyer for Span.

 

If I was the Cards, I'd start at Berrios and work down from there, but not very far down from there.

 

It's going to take real talent to get Jay, just as it took considerable talent to get Span. Maybe not a top 100 prospect but it's going to take more than Fien and a C prospect.

 

Span's WAR in 5 years with the Twins was 17.8, and coming off of a 5.0 WAR season, on a very different realm. I don't agree with the comparison at all and I think at this point Berrios is comparable to where Meyer was when the Twins dealt for him. When Jay is dealt, we'll see, but the Cards aren't getting anything close to Berrios or Vargas for him.

[Beezer07]

Span's WAR in 5 years with the Twins was 17.8, and coming off of a 5.0 WAR season, on a very different realm. I don't agree with the comparison at all and I think at this point Berrios is comparable to where Meyer was when the Twins dealt for him. When Jay is dealt, we'll see, but the Cards aren't getting anything close to Berrios or Vargas for him.

 

I just don't see how getting a decidedly mediocre CFer for a .500-at-best team is worth a prospect of Meyer's or Berrios's value.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think at this point Berrios is comparable to where Meyer was when the Twins dealt for him.

 

No, he's not. Meyer was a consensus top-50 prospect in all of baseball and is a beast of a human being at 6'9", 220 lbs.

 

Berrios might not crack the top 50 this season even if he continues pitching like he has this season. Despite his nasty stuff, he's still a little guy and little guys often struggle at higher levels of MiLB, much less MLB.

 

And even if Berrios is as projectable as Meyer (and he's not), that's still where I'd start the bidding if I was the Cardinals.

[Winston Smith]

Prospects are prospects and certainly not sure things. To always worry that bringing in a good/decent player that would improve your team is somehow going to muck up the entire flow of great players coming up makes no sense. If prospects were sure things Joe Benson and Hicks would be playing every day and we wouldn't even need to talk about Jay.

Get as many good players as you can, figure it out as you go. Having an extra good player is much better than playing shorthanded for a half season or more.

[nicksaviking]

I think the Cardinals will have a hard time moving him because as mentioned several times, they will ask for a lot. However it seems to me that the players value still comes more from perception that from numbers.

 

The perception of Jay is that he is losing his job to a rookie and while he can play CF, he's better in the corners where his bat doesn't profile as well. I don't think the Cardinals will get a fair offer they like and Jay will stay.

[PseudoSABR]

If we're going after a St Louis outfielder, let's go after the younger guys stuck behind Taverez like Randall Grichuk or James Ramsey.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Prospects are prospects and certainly not sure things. To always worry that bringing in a good/decent player that would improve your team is somehow going to muck up the entire flow of great players coming up makes no sense. If prospects were sure things Joe Benson and Hicks would be playing every day and we wouldn't even need to talk about Jay.

 

Sure, that'd make sense if the Twins weren't in the middle of a rebuild and didn't have three young centerfielders, any of which may take the CF reins in Minnesota in 2015.

 

Giving up a guy like Vargas for a guy like Jay who will almost certainly be supplanted by one or more of Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton as early as Opening Day 2015 doesn't make a lot of sense. The Twins need guys like Vargas as either trade bait or to fill a position as early as next season, they shouldn't consider trading him in a season where they almost certainly won't make the playoffs.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Centerfield will not be a problem next season unless Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton collapse. The likelihood of that happening is pretty low.

 

Um... Hicks has already collapsed, right? In terms of counting on him as a MLB starter in 2015, at least.

 

The other two guys haven't had that chance to fail yet, but neither has played CF above A-ball yet either. And one of them can't even swing a bat at the moment.

 

I guess it is still possible one of those guys could win the MLB CF job in spring training 2015, but it's not looking terribly likely at the moment. So acquiring another CF somehow should be a priority.

 

I agree that trade might not be the best way, though -- it would help earlier than waiting for a free agent this offseason, and immediately lessen our dependence on Hicks/Santana, but it could cost more. Do we have any trade assets that aren't key pieces, other than bullpen guys or already failed prospects? Maybe not...

[Brock Beauchamp]

I guess it is still possible one of those guys could win the MLB CF job in spring training 2015, but it's not looking terribly likely at the moment. So acquiring another CF somehow should be a priority.

 

I agree that trade might not be the best way, though -- it would help earlier than waiting for a free agent this offseason, and immediately lessen our dependence on Hicks/Santana, but it could cost more. Do we have any trade assets that aren't key pieces, other than bullpen guys or already failed prospects? Maybe not...

 

For the record, I'm not against pursuing a CF. I think it's a prudent decision. I simply do not believe the Twins currently have the open pieces to make such a trade without hampering their real goal, and that's sustained success from 2015-2020.

 

If the Twins can get a CF whose contract expires this season and doesn't cost more than Levi Michael or someone of his ilk, I'd be all for it. Then they can either extend that CF or pick up a stop-gap this offseason.

 

Jon Jay is going to cost more than Levi Michael. A lot more than Levi Michael.

[jorgenswest]

You don't have to look at the metrics if you trust the Cardinals assessment of his defense. Look at the Cardinals decision to replace him with Peter Bourjos. Bourjos is a poor hitter and has more starts in center in spite of an OPS over 100 points less than Jay. It has to be the glove.

 

I don't think the Cardinals feel Jay has enough defense to be an every day CF or enough bat to be an every day corner OF. He is in his best role now of 4th OF.

 

I wouldn't trade a good starting pitching or up the middle prospect for him. I might sell high on Vargas, but I would want to see what happens when Fuld comes back. Jay might be a one win improvement over Fuld, the Twins really need to be contenders to give up any significant prospect.

[Brandon]

I am going to go with a proposal of Max Keplar and Deunsing for Jon Jay. that seems fair to me or if St Louis would rather go with Darnel Logan for depth I could do that too.