Love seeing Arcia come alive. However...

[jorgenswest]

Arcia high strike out rate combines with low walk rates will lead to more inconsistent play. His walk rate will improve and the Twins and Gardenhire will need to be patient through the slumps.

 

I am not as sure about the Oliva comparison. I don't remember him swinging at many pitches outside of the strike zone. He didn't walk or strike out much. His strike out rates were just below 10% his first two years. He didn't need to see many pitches before he barreled up on the ball. His rates were low because he put the ball in play before he got to three strikes or four balls.

[Mike Sixel]

Recently read on one of the sites expressing concern over his all or nothing approach, that pitchers will eventually figure out not to make mistakes to him (easier said than done, btw). Sure, he needs to figure out the zone more, but sure, it is fun to watch him hit HRs and doubles. I'll take more aggression over less aggression every day......

[Brock Beauchamp]

One other thing: Lots of people complain that Hicks is walking too much and is too passive. The same people complain that Arcia is is not walking enough and is too aggressive.

 

There's no reason both can't be true. Arcia is on the far end of the aggressive scale and Hicks is on the far end of the passive scale.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'll take more aggression over less aggression every day......

 

I won't. I'll take productive aggression but there are lots of guys who are unproductively aggressive.

[Lefty]

Couldn't agree more. Keep bashing that ball off of or over the wall and I could care less about his on base percentage. Fact is, the guys that are getting on base in front of him better have their running shoes, or trotting shoes on because they're probably going to score.

 

I love the swagger too. This team needs a leader and an identity and I think he's a guy that can give this team a little bit of an attitude.

[TheLeviathan]

We all want Arcia to be the best he can possibly be, I think that's the source of the criticism. We also saw him do many of these same things early on last year and then he suffered after the league adjusted to him.

 

We just have to hope his coaches are helping him anticipate those adjustments already and see where we go from here. Right now it's great to see him crushing the ball around - he just looks like the middle of the order mainstay his potential suggested last year.

[drivlikejehu]

Red flag or no, it's hard to walk much when you are hitting the ball so often and so hard. I'm sure they will start pitching around him, and he'll need to adjust. But he shouldn't adjust until he needs to. As to the Ks, he's always struck out a lot. Comes with the territory.

 

The top 16 MLB players in walk rate last year all hit 20+ home runs. Number 17 was Mauer.

 

Hitting the ball hard and walks go together. Pitchers are more reluctant to throw strikes, thus the hitter takes more walks.

 

So far, Arcia is getting away with swinging at everything. It won't last. He either will take more walks or his production will decrease dramatically.

[cmathewson]

Arcia high strike out rate combines with low walk rates will lead to more inconsistent play. His walk rate will improve and the Twins and Gardenhire will need to be patient through the slumps.

 

I am not as sure about the Oliva comparison. I don't remember him swinging at many pitches outside of the strike zone. He didn't walk or strike out much. His strike out rates were just below 10% his first two years. He didn't need to see many pitches before he barreled up on the ball. His rates were low because he put the ball in play before he got to three strikes or four balls.

 

Oliva was a notorious bad ball hitter, like Puckett. Neither struck out that much, though.

[Lefty]

The single was more impressive than the home run. Despite being out front, he was able to keep his hands back and make solid contact. It also appears like he is recognizing the breaking ball better and laying off it. I will take the sacrifice flies, scorching doubles, homers and the strikeouts.

 

Come on! Someone get The Common Man on the phone today and get this in the PST. I'll take a 450 ft grand slam ANY DAY over an ugly single.

[cmathewson]

The top 16 MLB players in walk rate last year all hit 20+ home runs. Number 17 was Mauer.

 

Hitting the ball hard and walks go together. Pitchers are more reluctant to throw strikes, thus the hitter takes more walks.

 

So far, Arcia is getting away with swinging at everything. It won't last. He either will take more walks or his production will decrease dramatically.

 

I would say the disjunction is more like a conditional. If his production starts to fall, he will need to walk more. If pitchers keep throwing him meatballs, he shouldn't be taking them in order to increase his walk rate. When they start pitching around him, he will need to lay off those pitches and take more walks.

[TheDean]

He's 23 years old and came up pretty quickly. Give him a little more time to work on recognizing pitches outside the zone and to developing plate discipline. It isn't something I would expect to come all at once.

 

Agreed. Heck, if we're going to pass judgement on a SSS, he has a lower K% than last year. His minor league OBP was consistently in the .350-.400 range. Will he achieve that in the majors? Maybe not, but he knows how to get some walks. Once he learns how to lay off breaking pitches from LOOGYs and the up&in FB at the ML, he's going to be good - actually better than good.

 

I mean, that sequence where he hit the grand slam... he took three straight pitches, fouled one off, and hit the big one. He showed some patience, but knew what to do with 2 outs, bases loaded, 2-2 count when he was given the pitch he wanted.

[drivlikejehu]

I would say the disjunction is more like a conditional. If his production starts to fall, he will need to walk more. If pitchers keep throwing him meatballs, he shouldn't be taking them in order to increase his walk rate. When they start pitching around him, he will need to lay off those pitches and take more walks.

 

Except it's not conditional. It's 100% certain that pitchers will adjust. We don't know how he will adjust in turn, and thus there is at least some uncertainty or reason for concern. It's a pretty straightforward situation... maybe you have a crystal ball, but for the rest of us, we'll just have to wait and see.

[cmathewson]

I haven't heard a single complaint about Hicks walking too much. His inability to make solid contact? Sure...those two things are not even remotely the same.

 

Go back and read the thread about Gardy's and Antony's comments re: Hicks' lack of aggressiveness. Plenty of people agreed with their assessment. Some of the same people are complaining about Arcia's aggressiveness.

 

As Brock said, this is not a contradiction. But it is a conflict if you consider that Arcia's aggressiveness is resulting in lots of homers and doubles, which everyone will say are better than walks. When his aggressiveness becomes a problem, he'll need to work on it.

 

You can say it tends in that direction for most players, but that is a statement with large samples sizes behind it. Guys go through periods of walking a lot, when pitchers are pitching around them; and periods of not walking a lot, when they are hot and pitchers are throwing them a lot of strikes. Over the course of a season or two, these streaks tend to even out. Right now, Arcia is in one of the latter streaks. And it is only 10 days since he came off the DL. Give it time.

 

Correlation does not imply causation. Guys walk a lot because pitchers don't throw them strikes and they don't swing at balls. You need both tines of that fork to make a complete causal argument. Right now, we just have one tine.

[cmathewson]

Except it's not conditional. It's 100% certain that pitchers will adjust. We don't know how he will adjust in turn, and thus there is at least some uncertainty or reason for concern. It's a pretty straightforward situation... maybe you have a crystal ball, but for the rest of us, we'll just have to wait and see.

 

I am arguing for "wait and see" rather than "the sky is falling."

[jorgenswest]

Oliva was a notorious bad ball hitter, like Puckett. Neither struck out that much, though.

 

Arcia swings wildly. Pitchers make him look bad. Oliva only once had a k/bb rate of 2 (it was exactly 2) and that was a year where his strike out rate was less than 10. It was several years before Puckett had a rate under 2.

 

Oliva was famous for saying, "If you like a pitch, you swing." He did barrel up on balls out of the zone. His bio on SABR write about his near perfect and aesthetically pleasing swing. His aggressive approach and confidence did put fear into pitchers that he would make solid contact on pitches outside the zone.

 

I don't think anyone who saw both players would see any similarity in their swing or approach.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Okay, let's tone it down a bit. No need to start making it personal and this thread is coming close. Keep on point.

 

To be fair, even Joe Mauer's BB% has declined to low levels when he's really on a roll. Guys don't walk when they're seeing the ball well and boy, is Arcia really seein' that ball right now.

 

It will be interesting to see how pitchers adjust and then how he adjusts following that adjustment, which will lead to another adjustment and probably another adjustment.

[drivlikejehu]

I am arguing for "wait and see" rather than "the sky is falling."

 

I'm not sure if this is allowed, but one last try: no one is saying the sky is falling.

[cmathewson]

I'm not sure if this is allowed, but one last try: no one is saying the sky is falling.

 

I read several comments in a row in which the writers expressed concerns about his future, one of whom compared him to Delmon Young. On one whole page of comments, the general tenor was negative on a night when he had just hit a grand slam and a double the day after he hit a three-run bomb and the game-winning single. That's what I reacted to.

[drivlikejehu]

I read several comments in a row in which the writers expressed concerns about his future, one of whom compared him to Delmon Young. On one whole page of comments, the general tenor was negative on a night when he had just hit a grand slam and a double the day after he hit a three-run bomb and the game-winning single. That's what I reacted to.

 

I don't see any evidence that the first page of the thread was negative. Most posts were positive or just neutrally cited statistics. One poster did note that Delmon Young was a player with a lot of ability who didn't develop, but he was not saying the same would happen here, only that Arcia had to develop as a hitter (an obviously correct statement).

 

Discussing a player's performance is a basic topic that should be expected on a baseball forum. Noting certain tendencies, areas needing improvement, etc., is not an attack requiring a response. This board is overwhelmingly positive towards Arcia and it's inexpicable that anyone could suggest otherwise.

[kab21]

I read several comments in a row in which the writers expressed concerns about his future, one of whom compared him to Delmon Young. On one whole page of comments, the general tenor was negative on a night when he had just hit a grand slam and a double the day after he hit a three-run bomb and the game-winning single. That's what I reacted to.

 

Delmon Young had tons of raw ability as does Arcia and he provides an excellent example of what COULD happen if Arcia continues to swing at everything. It's hard to be a successful MLB player when you have a 6:1 K:BB ratio (MLB career). I'm extremely bullish on Arcia because of natural raw ability but hitters like Arcia also carry downside and it's silly to simply look at a few HR's and say that the downside doesn't exist.

[JB_Iowa]

Delmon Young had tons of raw ability as does Arcia and he provides an excellent example of what COULD happen if Arcia continues to swing at everything. It's hard to be a successful MLB player when you have a 6:1 K:BB ratio (MLB career). I'm extremely bullish on Arcia because of natural raw ability but hitters like Arcia also carry downside and it's silly to simply look at a few HR's and say that the downside doesn't exist.

 

Therein lies the quandary, though. We heard repeatedly that the Rays advanced DY too quickly through the system.

 

Should Arcia be spending more time in the minors developing his pitch recognition or can he do that with extra work with Brunansky?

 

We love the power and punch he brings to this line-up but is it the best thing for him developmentally (and ultimately the best thing for the Twins as the seasons go on)????

[cmathewson]

I don't see any evidence that the first page of the thread was negative. Most posts were positive or just neutrally cited statistics. One poster did note that Delmon Young was a player with a lot of ability who didn't develop, but he was not saying the same would happen here, only that Arcia had to develop as a hitter (an obviously correct statement).

 

Discussing a player's performance is a basic topic that should be expected on a baseball forum. Noting certain tendencies, areas needing improvement, etc., is not an attack requiring a response. This board is overwhelmingly positive towards Arcia and it's inexpicable that anyone could suggest otherwise.

 

Well, maybe I read it wrong. But it sure seemed to me that many of the posters were saying if he didn't get his Ks down and his walks up, he was headed to an inevitable fall. It just seemed odd to see all that talk on that night in particular. When he starts getting pitched around, we'll see how he adjusts. Hopefully he lays off more often. Until then, I'd like to enjoy the ride without worrying about his next slump.

[drivlikejehu]

The discussion prior to your post took place before the game.

[ashbury]

The top 16 MLB players in walk rate last year all hit 20+ home runs. Number 17 was Mauer.

 

Hitting the ball hard and walks go together.

 

Generally yes, but the stats you cited, ordered the way you did, exclude any chance for evidence to the contrary. For a fuller picture, here are some other guys with 20+ HR: Pedro Alvarez (36 HR. 48 BB), Alphonso Soriano (34 HR, 36 BB), Adam Jones (33 HR, 25 BB), Raul Ibanez (29 HR, 42 BB), Domonic Brown (27 HR, 39 BB), Nelson Cruz (27 HR, 35 BB).

 

It won't last. He either will take more walks or his production will decrease dramatically.

 

Of course he won't continue this current abnormally low walk rate. But he can walk at the rate he did last season, and be in some pretty good company.

 

I don't take issue with the idea that Arcia will have to adjust when the pitchers do. I just take issue with the use of stats this way. Said another way, the evidence you gave would be consistent with "pitchers don't give tons of walks to slap hitters", but does not support "if Arcia doesn't walk more, he'll become a slap hitter".

[drivlikejehu]

Said another way, the evidence you gave would be consistent with "pitchers don't give tons of walks to slap hitters", but does not support "if Arcia doesn't walk more, he'll become a slap hitter".

 

When and where did I or anyone else suggest Arcia might become a "slap hitter"?

[ashbury]

When and where did I or anyone else suggest Arcia might become a "slap hitter"?

 

That's why there was a smiley face at the end.

 

I also committed a rookie mistake: I didn't notice the thread had continued to another page, and on that page the tone of discussion had gone seriously downhill. So my bit of exaggeration for humor's sake may have seemed more pointed than it was.

 

I went for humor rather than the dry approach. "Data shows all hitters with high walks have high HR totals". (All A is B.) "Therefore without high walks, you won't have high HR totals". (Not A implies not B - a fallacy.) "Pitchers don't walk slap hitters." (Not B implies not A - a valid conclusion.) "But pitchers don't walk other hitters too." (Not A may still allow B - also valid.) The data you provided simply didn't say anything about "Not A", and not everything about "B"; I provided some. You can hit homers without being among the league leaders in walks. Dry enough?

[jokin]

There's no reason both can't be true. Arcia is on the far end of the aggressive scale and Hicks is on the far end of the passive scale.

 

Literally true, as the swing rate numbers back up this claim.

[jokin]

Go back and read the thread about Gardy's and Antony's comments re: Hicks' lack of aggressiveness. Plenty of people agreed with their assessment. Some of the same people are complaining about Arcia's aggressiveness.

 

As Brock said, this is not a contradiction. But it is a conflict if you consider that Arcia's aggressiveness is resulting in lots of homers and doubles, which everyone will say are better than walks. When his aggressiveness becomes a problem, he'll need to work on it.

 

You can say it tends in that direction for most players, but that is a statement with large samples sizes behind it. Guys go through periods of walking a lot, when pitchers are pitching around them; and periods of not walking a lot, when they are hot and pitchers are throwing them a lot of strikes. Over the course of a season or two, these streaks tend to even out. Right now, Arcia is in one of the latter streaks. And it is only 10 days since he came off the DL. Give it time.

 

Correlation does not imply causation. Guys walk a lot because pitchers don't throw them strikes and they don't swing at balls. You need both tines of that fork to make a complete causal argument. Right now, we just have one tine.

 

Gotta tell you, I've never seen either a one- or a two-tined fork before.

[jokin]

Generally yes, but the stats you cited, ordered the way you did, exclude any chance for evidence to the contrary. For a fuller picture, here are some other guys with 20+ HR: Pedro Alvarez (36 HR. 48 BB), Alphonso Soriano (34 HR, 36 BB), Adam Jones (33 HR, 25 BB), Raul Ibanez (29 HR, 42 BB), Domonic Brown (27 HR, 39 BB), Nelson Cruz (27 HR, 35 BB).

 

 

 

Of course he won't continue this current abnormally low walk rate. But he can walk at the rate he did last season, and be in some pretty good company.

 

I don't take issue with the idea that Arcia will have to adjust when the pitchers do. I just take issue with the use of stats this way. Said another way, the evidence you gave would be consistent with "pitchers don't give tons of walks to slap hitters", but does not support "if Arcia doesn't walk more, he'll become a slap hitter".

 

As I pointed out previously, a career 31% K-rate and 5.5% BB-rate leaves him on an island by himself. And his neighboring islander company are Cris Carter and Mark Reynolds.

[cmathewson]

Gotta tell you, I've never seen either a one- or a two-tined fork before.

 

A one-tined fork is a skewar. A two-tined fork is a shrimp fork. Just ask this guy: