Official 2014 Draft Day Thread, Day 1

[Mike Sixel]

I have tried making this point before and am surprised you still hear the every day argument. Every play is primarily batter vs. pitcher. So a starting pitcher that pitches 7 innings is in on 39% of the plays (7 / 18), versus the hitter at 5.5% of the plays (1 / 18)

 

And yet, he only effects the outcome of 30 or so games. And really, probably less than that, because his offense sometimes totally loses or wins games regardless of how he pitches. At best, he can help them in 35 games. A hitter? 162 games. You totally ignore that part in your calculations.

[gunnarthor]

This stuff about Gordon being a near "lock" for the Twins seems a bit odd. Is there a team with tighter lips than the Twins? No one is reporting any worthwhile quotes from the front office. It all seems like conjecture due to the Twins heavy presence at Gordon's games, and conjecture is not a "lock." Also to consider, Gordon played 2 1/2 hours away from the team's home base at Ft. Myers. It stands to reason they saw him play a lot.

 

I wouldn't be upset with Gordon, but I'd probably be disappointed if they passed up Kolek, who by the way the Twins also had scouts constantly follow, including Deron Johnson.

My guess is some of that is coming from other teams. The cubs might have talked to him about signing for X amount to save some latter but he indicated to them that the Twins will sign him for a bit more than X. Something like that.

[Mike Sixel]

Sometimes I'd really like to sticky quotes like this. Starting pitching is the most important position on the field, and in my opinion it isn't close. I'm not saying draft a pitcher if someone like Jackson is the best available at 5, but this once every 5 games thing should not be the reason to not draft or pay money for good pitching.

 

I'd note that the starting pitcher that goes 7 innings will also see a very similar amount plate appearances as a hitter over 5 days... and that pitcher has far more control over the outcome than than the hitter.

 

Even against the best pitchers, hitters get a hit 25% of the time....and the worst less than 33% of the time. A pitcher really only effects a small percent of the at bats.

[Mike Sixel]

Law and others talk to scouts all the time, just because they don't name them doesn't mean it isn't happening. He has made that clear over and over, his projections are based on what he hears from scouts, GMs, others in baseball, not on what he would do.

[InfraRen]

I do like that Law has heard the Twins COULD take Kolek over Gordon potentially, not because I want that to happen, but because if the Cubs surprisingly take Gordon at 4, then at least it seems the Twins would take Kolek.

 

For me, those are the two guys I want the most from the "realistic" group of players, so either way .

[cmb0252]

My top 8

Jackson

Aiken

Kolek

Newcomb

Conforto

Hoffman

Schwarber

Nola.

 

Not big on Gordon mainly because of contant and discipline and some vague character issues here and there.

 

Where have you read about character issues? Not only have I not seen anything that suggests he has character issues but actually the opposite. He is supposed to be a high character kid. Maybe I missed something.

[themattsonian]

I do like that Law has heard the Twins COULD take Kolek over Gordon potentially, not because I want that to happen, but because if the Cubs surprisingly take Gordon at 4, then at least it seems the Twins would take Kolek.

 

For me, those are the two guys I want the most from the "realistic" group of players, so either way .

 

Co-sign*******

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, I have also read that Gordon is a good person, and has a very advance approach to baseball for a HS kid.

[tobi0040]

And yet, he only effects the outcome of 30 or so games. And really, probably less than that, because his offense sometimes totally loses or wins games regardless of how he pitches. At best, he can help them in 35 games. A hitter? 162 games. You totally ignore that part in your calculations.

 

How was that ignored? Over the course of the year a pitcher that pitches 200 IP and faces 4 batters an inning has 800 at bats. A position player usually gets 550- 625 at bats. The fact that those 800 at bats are only in 35 games is irrelevant because that is already accounted for to note that the games they do play, they are much more involved.

 

Lets use two extreme examples. Last year Kershaw gave up 1.8 runs over 216 innings (33 games). Mike Trout played every day and 1.2 hits per game. A HR every 5.3 games or so. An SB about every fifth game. An exta base hit about every third game. Give me the guy that absolutely shuts down the other team 20% of the time.

[John Bonnes]

BP last mock - http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23785

 

Twins taking Nola with Aiken, Rodon, Kolek and Gordon going 1-4.

 

That would be quite a curveball. It sounds like this is the Twins worst case scenario (which isn't bad.)

[Willihammer]

And yet, he only effects the outcome of 30 or so games. And really, probably less than that, because his offense sometimes totally loses or wins games regardless of how he pitches. At best, he can help them in 35 games. A hitter? 162 games. You totally ignore that part in your calculations.

 

This doesn't speak directly to your point but Tobi and I did a few laps in the Draft thread on this. I'll re-post what I posted there.

 

As it happens I do have an old file from a blog idea I abandoned. The data covers the years 1996-2011. If you'll accept Runs allowed as a proxy for ERA, the average RS-RA rankings are like this:

 

average RS ranking for LDS teams: 7.3

average RA ranking for LDS teams: 8.5

 

average RS ranking for LCS teams: 9.8

average RA ranking for LCS teams: 7.4

 

average RS ranking for WS teams: 9.4

average RA ranking for WS teams: 6.9

 

average RS ranking for WS winner: 9.1

average RA ranking for WS winner: 7.2

 

[Willihammer]

If you accept that starting pitching is the most important component of defense, then the value of good starting pitching is extremely high. Much higher than a single game from a single position player, and might become even more valuable as a team gets deeper into the playoffs.

[Mike Sixel]

How was that ignored? Over the course of the year a pitcher that pitches 200 IP and faces 4 batters an inning has 800 at bats. A position player usually gets 550- 625 at bats. The fact that those 800 at bats are only in 35 games is irrelevant because that is already accounted for to note that the games they do play, they are much more involved.

 

Lets use two extreme examples. Last year Kershaw gave up 1.8 runs over 216 innings (33 games). Mike Trout played every day and 1.2 hits per game. A HR every 5.3 games or so. An SB about every fifth game. An exta base hit about every third game. Give me the guy that absolutely shuts down the other team 20% of the time.

 

And when your hitters are terrible, because you only draft pitchers, how do you win games? And yes, I know I am taking your argument to the extreme, but that is the argument you are making. Take elite pitchers over elite hitters every time. Or am I misunderstanding your argument?

 

A pithcher helps in at most 30 games. The delta between the number 4 pitchers, and the number 1 pitchers is probably in the 10-15 games where the pitcher actually makes a difference, since the offense will bail out the bad pitcher sometimes (and sometimes he'll be good), and the offense will let down the good pitcher (and sometimes he'll be bad).

 

I am not arguing to pass on pitchers for hitters all the time, but you seem to be making that argument the other way.

[Mike Sixel]

If you accept that starting pitching is the most important component of defense, then the value of good starting pitching is extremely high. Much higher than a single game from a single position player, and might become even more valuable as a team gets deeper into the playoffs.

 

Except, that's not a good comparison. Hitters don't play single games, they play 4.8 times more games than pitchers. If we are going to compare apples and tires, sure, I agree......one game the pitcher is more important than the hitter. 162 games? Different story.

[tobi0040]

And when your hitters are terrible, because you only draft pitchers, how do you win games? And yes, I know I am taking your argument to the extreme, but that is the argument you are making. Take elite pitchers over elite hitters every time. Or am I misunderstanding your argument?

 

A pithcher helps in at most 30 games. The delta between the number 4 pitchers, and the number 1 pitchers is probably in the 10-15 games where the pitcher actually makes a difference, since the offense will bail out the bad pitcher sometimes (and sometimes he'll be good), and the offense will let down the good pitcher (and sometimes he'll be bad).

 

I am not arguing to pass on pitchers for hitters all the time, but you seem to be making that argument the other way.

 

I am not suggesting always take a pitcher. But if they are even, I prefer pitching.

 

My argument for Touki or Newcomb is that if they reach potential, that is the type of player we could only get in the draft (not free agency or international FA). Granted Drew is more above average hitting and average defensively (Gordon projects as the opposite), we could have afforded him. It is a ceiling issue for me.

[tobi0040]

Except, that's not a good comparison. Hitters don't play single games, they play 4.8 times more games than pitchers. If we are going to compare apples and tires, sure, I agree......one game the pitcher is more important than the hitter. 162 games? Different story.

 

Hitters - Bat 5.5% of the time (1/18) and play every game. They impact 8.91 full games a year (.055 x 162)

 

Pitchers - Assuming 6 IP per start, they impact 33.33% percent of 33 games (6 / 18). They play 11 full games a year (33 x .3333)

 

We are leaving out defense I know. But when you factor in a position player is still 1/18th and 95% of the time an MLB player will make the play.....it isn't going to swing this analysis.

[John Bonnes]

Except, that's not a good comparison. Hitters don't play single games, they play 4.8 times more games than pitchers. If we are going to compare apples and tires, sure, I agree......one game the pitcher is more important than the hitter. 162 games? Different story.

 

Regarding hitter vs. pitcher, I'd like to try and keep this thread focused on the draft tonight....

 

If I was going to start with whether hitter or starting pitchers impact games more over a season, I'd start by looking at WPA (Win Probability Added). You can find this year's hitters here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0

 

and this year's pitchers here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0

 

I suspect the difference is a little subtle, but if either of you want to use that data to formulate an analysis and conclusion, let me know by emailing me at john@bonnes.com. Maybe we could promote it from a blog post or post both in a separate thread.

 

But for now, I'd like to keep this thread dedicated to MLB Draft talk. This particular issue seems more of a tangent.

[golfboy1]

Even against the best pitchers, hitters get a hit 25% of the time....and the worst less than 33% of the time. A pitcher really only effects a small percent of the at bats.

 

A starting pitcher is the most important player on the field. Kevin Correia allows a BAA of .312 while Yu Darvish is @ .210. By your logic, that means the pitcher is only effecting a small ( 10%) of the at bats. Apparently that small % makes a big difference in the outcome of the game.

 

A great starting pitcher is a huge asset. If we could plug Yu Darvish into our rotation in place of Correia we would probably be leading the wild card race at the very least.

 

At this point, I don't know who I prefer. If the choices are Kolek, Nola, Jackson & Gordon I guess I would go Kolek, Gordon, Jackson, Nola although I wouldn't be upset with any of them.

 

PS. We all realize a SP only contributes every 5th game vs a positional player so that is something to factor in. For the record, I'd take Trout over any SP.

[Willihammer]

one game the pitcher is more important than the hitter. 162 games? Different story.

 

How much more important? If you want to compare pitchers and position players on the basis of games played, and scale to 162 games, then we just need a multiplier.

[Mike Sixel]

Yes, John, I realized after the last post we may be too specific on one topic......either way, I would be happy. I admit Kolek makes me nervous, seems like a guy needing a ton of coaching, and a one trick pony.

[crapforks]

Can someone shed light on what would be the disappointment in drafting Nola? I liked his numbers, stuff seems good (from reports), and he seems to be a fast mover with #2 upside and a higher floor than the Kolek's of the world. I'm all for Gordon or Nola, assuming the big 3 are off the board by the Twin's pick.

[2wins87]

If we want to compare hitters and pitchers over a full season, why not just use WAR.

 

A quick look at the top 30 pitchers and hitters last season by fWAR shows that the hitters averaged about 25% more WAR. So a good hitter is more valuable.

 

If we want to look at a single series or playoffs I would agree with John that WPA would be the place to start. I'm not sure where to get a good handle on this data but I would imagine that pitchers would come out a little ahead since the aces often pitch 3 times in a 7 game series.

[2wins87]

Ok, here we go:

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/8/12/2358507/world-series-win-probability-added-leaders

 

So pitchers seem more valuable in the playoffs.

 

At any rate, a team needs both to make it all the way to the World Series and if you rate regular season and post season equally they are probably pretty close to equally valuable.

 

So yeah, let's just hope the Twins draft the player that ends up having the best career.

[Mike Sixel]

On Nola, you covered why some would be disappointed, lower ceiling than some others, probably. Most value ceiling over floor at pick five.

[InfraRen]

Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd

The Carlos Rodon bonus demand hammer has dropped. I'm told its $6 million plus. Aiken heavy favorite to go 1-1 now.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd sign him for whatever amount, almost.....he's a future Ace. And could start in A ball and make high A this year.....not sure what $6MM would do to the Twins' pool.....

[nicksaviking]

Yes, John, I realized after the last post we may be too specific on one topic......either way, I would be happy. I admit Kolek makes me nervous, seems like a guy needing a ton of coaching, and a one trick pony.

 

It is a pretty awesome trick though.

[Mike Sixel]

It is a pretty awesome trick though.

 

it is, I wouldn't be mad if they took him, but I also would not be shocked if he doesn't work out of being worth a top 20 pick at all.....

[maxisagod]

Cubs boards are all saying Gordon at 4, based on who's on the Cub's short list and who they like, but they're as informed as we are and don't want the Cubs to go with a under-slot pick.

[cmb0252]

Can someone shed light on what would be the disappointment in drafting Nola? I liked his numbers, stuff seems good (from reports), and he seems to be a fast mover with #2 upside and a higher floor than the Kolek's of the world. I'm all for Gordon or Nola, assuming the big 3 are off the board by the Twin's pick.

 

Nola is a very polarizing prospect. At the beginning of the year there were questions if he was going to be a SPer or RPer because of his size/unorthodox delivery. His college performance this year has shown that he will be a future starter but the question is how good of one. There is no question he should move quickly, experts have been wrong on this before though, but does he project to be a #2 or #3? Experts are split on his try ceiling.

 

If you believe Nola's ceiling is a safe quick to the bigs #2 then he is deserving of the #5 pick. If you believe he is a future #3 then the argument can be made that with the #5 pick in the draft you should be aiming for someone with more ceiling. Obviously we won't know for years if Nola or any other prospect drafted in the top 5-10 were worthy of their drafted spot.