Mauer and Emotion

[Brock Beauchamp]

Fair enough.

 

I simply do not understand the "Mauer needs more fire" argument. These are professional athletes playing at the highest level of the sport. If they didn't know how to bring their own personal fire, they never would have made it here in the first place.

 

These guys are better at their job than anyone on this forum. They are competing at the highest level. We'd all have to be CEOs of our respective companies to be considered their peer group.

 

So my opinion is "let them be themselves". MLB players are not a middle school basketball team.

[LimestoneBaggy]

Fair enough.

 

These guys are better at their job than anyone on this forum.

 

I started to write a joke about you not knowing what I do for a living, and thus you can't possibly evaluate this position...and then I remembered I'm at work right now writing forum comments, and that's when I became my own joke.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I started to write a joke about you not knowing what I do for a living, and thus you can't possibly evaluate this position...and then I remembered I'm at work right now writing forum comments, and that's when I became my own joke.

 

And thus, the trap is set.

[JB_Iowa]

He has an .815 OPS with men on base this year. A .751 OPS with RISP.

 

His OPS for the year is .704.

 

Statistical white noise that doesn't mean anything. Joe's problem is his overall line, not how he's hitting with men on base or RISP.

 

 

Actually, in comparing 2014 to his career stats, his hitting with RISP is off significantly this year.

 

I'm a little confused about how bref shows it but here are a couple of lines:

 

2014 BA/OBP/SLG/OPS

RISP 32 games .189/.373/.378/.751

..... 46 games .279/.310/.315/.626 (this is the line I don't get - what is ....)

 

Career 877 gms .329/.452/.477/.928

,.... 1155 gms .311/.374/.460/.834

 

 

Anyway you look at it, it's a pretty significant dropoff.

 

It is human nature to remember the failures -- especially the failures in the late innings.

 

There is a lot of cause for concern about Mauer -- just not much any of us can do about it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Actually, in comparing 2014 to his career stats, his hitting with RISP is off significantly this year.

 

Absolutely. My point is that his RISP and MoB lines are better than his overall 2014 stat line, which tells me one thing:

 

Joe's problem is his 2014 stat line. It's that simple. RISP and MoB numbers normalize over time to match what the player does overall.

[Westgaard66]

Joe's problem is his 2014 stat line. It's that simple. RISP and MoB numbers normalize over time to match what the player does overall.

 

 

Its not that simple. I did not type OBA w/ RISP. OBA with RISP is great and all, but walks don't drive in runs unless the bases are jacked.

 

This season he has struck out or walked in 24 of his 49 plate appearances with RISP. Last season he struck out or walked in 45 of 110.

 

In 2012 he struck or or walked in 62 of 170 PAs w/RISP

 

So since April 2013, in damn near HALF of his Plate appearances, mauer didn't even put the ball in play.

 

(Props to anyone who can find a way to see how many double plays he hit into with RISP since the start of last season. )

 

 

 

Back to my original post. I typed "when the game is on the line."

 

guess how many game winning RBI has this season? I know MLB doesn't recognize that stat anymore, but just take a guess.......

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zero....(318 MLBers have more than him)

 

Guess how many he had last season?

2...... (304 had more than he did)

 

In 2012?

11.....(43 had more than he did)

 

In summary and in my opinion, Mauer has not been clutch for the better part of a season. Teams have adapted to his approach to hitting in order to minimize the amount of damage he can do. They know how to pitch to him so he doesn't put the ball in play in nearly half of his PAs w/ RISP because he either walks (which buoys his OBA w/ RISP) or strikes out. Honestly, basically averaging 1 for 3 w/ a walk per game is great for his BA & OBA stats, but when that "1" occurs will determine whether he is clutch or not.

 

I bet if #7 was at his 2012 numbers, many would be questioning his "emotion" or even his approach to hitting.

 

 

if it's possible, I would really like to see a breakdown of Mauer's batting average, OBA and runs driven in by inning.....

 

 

(for the record....this response got typed up before I read Parker's article on Mauer's struggles, which I found to be a great read, but needed to put some of the onus for change in approach on #7 himself)

[Pius Jefferson]

Not so far this year.

 

 

He wasn't great with RISP last season either.

[longstrangetrip]

I agree. I am guessing nobody on our team prepares and watches tape on the opposing pitchers like Mauer. Watching that preparation on a daily basis does more to inspire teammates than breaking a bat over his knee, or taking out his frustration on another player or ump.

 

 

How come nobody ever brings up the fact that every young baseball player in this state looks up to Joe and his lack of antics and off the field issues is a great example for them?

 

If Joe watches more tape than anyone else, wouldn't he notice that 88% of the time he's taking the first pitch...and often it's the fattest pitch of the at bat? And wouldn't he then adjust to that? Don't players watch tape in order to find ways to improve?

 

Whoops, I think I may be in the wrong thread...

[Beezer07]

Westgaaard: If I remember correctly, "Game Winning RBI" just means "who drove in the run that ended up being the last run necessary to win the game," right? So if you win 9-0, whoever got the first RBI gets the game winning RBI. Or if the other team came back to lose 8-9, whoever drove in that 9th run gets the Game Winning RBI. Pretty terrible way to judge how someone performs with the "game on the line," in my opinion.

 

Now, in true Internet fashion, I'm going to leave without offering a better way to judge someone in the clutch. Although I'll say I don't believe there is such a thing as a "clutch" baseball player.

[Westgaard66]

Yes that is what the stat represented, but I am willing to bet it was a very small %.

 

I wish I knew how to dig into stats more. I would like to see his BA the last two seasons w/ RISP in innings 6-9

[Guest USAFChief]

Yes that is what the stat represented, but I am willing to bet it was a very small %.

 

I wish I knew how to dig into stats more. I would like to see his BA the last two seasons w/ RISP in innings 6-9

 

Baseball Reference does a prettygod job of approximating what you're looking for...here's Mauer's 2014 splits page:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=mauerjo01&year=2014&t=b

[notoriousgod71]

Mauer is really in a no win situation at this point. If he continues being himself people will complain about not being a vocal leader and having no fire. If he suddenly turns the corner and becomes a "Rah rah" guy the same people will call him fake (and probably rightfully so at that point).

[D. Hocking]

The last time he showed emotion it disturbed his teammates so much they told him not to do that again.

 

[strumdatjag]

For those who are both Baseball and Wrestling fans, I see a parallel between the fans' reaction to Mauer and the WWE fans' reaction to John Cena. The casual fan will accept them as their favorite player but the more than casual fan is quick to boo both of them. Mauer and Cena exude "uncoolness" and "goody-goody". However, in both cases, the casual fan has it right. Because over time, both are at the top level; they are Hall of Fame caliber performers in their chosen professions. Look at the stats of many Hall of Famers and you will see one or two years where their numbers dipped. In his second season, Rod Carew hit 273. George Brett had several years where he batted in the .280s and one where he batted in the .250s. The currently adored and retiring Derek Jeter slumped to a batting average of .270 in 2010 before bouncing back to more productive numbers.

[strumdatjag]

By the way, is anyone out there willing to bet that Kurt Suzuki will have a better batting average than Joe Mauer at the end of the season? I'm even willing to bet that WAR and other stats will favor Mauer by the end of this season.

[twinsnorth49]

People still watch wrestling?

[Twins Twerp]

The last time he showed emotion it disturbed his teammates so much they told him not to do that again.

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]7614[/ATTACH]

Damn I miss those days. That was a fun season.

[LaBombo]

People still watch wrestling?

 

A few, but NCAA wrestling viewership has virtually disappeared since professional indoor mixed martial hang-gliding stole its audience.

 

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/Christopher_Daniels_1.jpg

[Westgaard66]

Baseball Reference does a prettygod job of approximating what you're looking for...here's Mauer's 2014 splits page:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=mauerjo01&year=2014&t=b

 

Well here is some clutch stats for Mr. Mauer.

 

http://i408.photobucket.com/albums/pp161/westgaard66/0AA3B093-3006-4F10-9403-9F7D620B6A12.png

[Westgaard66]

Look at the 1st two rows.

 

ANTI-CLUTCH

[Brock Beauchamp]

Look at the 1st two rows.

 

ANTI-CLUTCH

 

24 and 33 plate appearances.

 

Hey, look what happens when you look at his career line instead of a week's worth of plate appearances:

 

 

SUPER CLUTCH.

 

(that doesn't really exist but whatever)

[JB_Iowa]

Mauer has been disappointing.

 

But I can't imagine that any of us are much more disappointed in his performance than is Joe Mauer.

 

He has always seemed a bit of a perfectionist to me and his inability to make adjustments thus far this year has to be incredibly frustrating to him.

 

What will serve Joe Mauer best? Probably his legendary stoicism and his long time work ethic and desire to improve his game. This would be the best time to let patience and persistence work for him rather than some new emotion.

[Mike Sixel]

Is this approaching the worst contract in the game right now? I think the Dodgers have worse, but they have near infinite money, and a willingness to spend it, so I think you have to DQ those.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Is this approaching the worst contract in the game right now?

 

Uh.... Alex Rodriguez.

 

Also Ryan Howard, Josh Hamilton, and CC Sabathia.

[LimestoneBaggy]

Is this approaching the worst contract in the game right now? I think the Dodgers have worse, but they have near infinite money, and a willingness to spend it, so I think you have to DQ those.

 

The Twins sell more than $23 Million in pink Mauer jerseys every year. His contract has no effect on the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

Uh.... Alex Rodriguez.

 

Also Ryan Howard, Josh Hamilton, and CC Sabathia.

 

Don't think the Yankees care about money one way or the other. They signed two of the biggest offseason contracts last year. Now, Howard, that might be up there. I had forgotten about Howard somehow......Hamilton? Probably worse than Mauer, true.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Now, Howard, that might be up there. I had forgotten about Howard somehow......Hamilton? Probably worse than Mauer, true.

 

From 2010-2013, the Phillies paid Ryan Howard $79m.

 

He posted a 1.4 combined WAR during that time.

 

During that same time frame, Joe posted a 16.6 combined WAR and was paid $81.5m.

[Mike Sixel]

It wasnt obvious I was talking about going forward, and this year, not the past?

[JB_Iowa]

Adam Dunn, 2011-2013, $41 million.

 

WAR: -1.8

 

 

Not such a large contract and only 4 years but still not great.

 

The eventual evaluation of Mauer's contract depends on whether the can turn things around.

[JB_Iowa]

It wasnt obvious I was talking about going forward, and this year, not the past?

 

Unless you are Carnac, neither you nor I nor anyone else knows what will happen from here out.