Scoggins lowers the boom on Twins/Hicks situation

[snepp]

Age only becomes an issue when figuring out the decline phase.

 

You should really clue Baseball America (as well as every other living, breathing minor league analyst) into this, because apparently none of them are aware.

[glunn]

Moderator note - this is a good discussion but there have been a few posts that border on disrespectful. Let's keep this polite and respectful.

[The Wise One]

You should really clue Baseball America (as well as every other living, breathing minor league analyst) into this, because apparently none of them are aware.

 

As you are the one saying saying Baseball America and every other living breathing anaylist I shouldn't be wrong you have talked to or read something from every source. So, please feel free to elaborate how physical age acts as either an enhancer or detracts from talent a player has at the high minor leauge level. What factor in a player's development is age related?

[The Wise One]

Yes. And actually, he has demonstrated that he hit well above league average. Can't you just admit you were entirely wrong in your previous post on the details of your assessment?

 

I'm not advocating anything. I'm merely noting what the Twins have done today with Rosario's reinstatement and that what he accomplished last year with his .742 OPS is simply the jumping off point for the Twins, to see if he can logically progress from there, in a truncated season of 2014, to a point where he can earn a look-see in September..... at a position at the major league level that is in complete chaos and crisis mode... and no ready answer going into 2015. Is it forcing the issue? Yes. But desperate times require desperate measure. This would be one option for possibly addressing their desperation.

 

Does above average in the Eastern Leauge get you to the majors? In the New York times a few years ago there was something about the average length of a position player being close to six years. That is about 2 position players a year per team make it to the majors. If it is your bat that is getting you there, above average doesnt cut it.

[The Wise One]

You should really clue Baseball America (as well as every other living, breathing minor league analyst) into this, because apparently none of them are aware.

 

Sorry, Government computers runs a very early version of IE which TD doesn't like when I edit.So here goes a 2 post

Somebody being younger than the average age of those competing at the same level is an indication of that player's talent when in the higher levels of minor league baseball. The player got to that level with talent. Age does not play a factor in what that player does.

 

When a college senior is drafted in the late rounds it was because of his talent. He starts in the GCL league or rookie leauge because of talent not age. They get promoted through developing their talent. That in the lowest levels they are older than average player isn't an issue. Talent and upside are the key.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And the plot thickens in Florida.

 

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2014_05_29_ftmafa_clrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

 

CF depth might now be officially considered a Twins top priority, if not an urgency. Appearing in the lineup tonight for the Miracle, former OF, then-recent 2ndB, Eddie Rosario, comes off of suspension tonight, and in his first appearance, will be playing in CF.

 

Is there any scenario if Rosario plays well enough in Ft Myers, and soon New Britain, that he gets a shot in CF with the Twins before the season is over? And even more importantly, assuming Buxton's ascension to the Twins is continued in the current holding pattern, is Rosario now in a position to challenge Hicks for the starting job in CF coming out of ST, 2015?

 

This just shows how unfortunate the Twins' situation has been this season. Hicks, terrible. Fuld, injured. Rosario, suspended. Buxton, injured.

 

Given the play out of the CF position, I believe there's a pretty good chance we would have seen Rosario already, had he not hit the ganja a little too hard in the offseason. A "position of strength" has been turned into a glaring weakness through a healthy dose of bad luck and some pretty dumb roster management (that, had Fuld not gotten injured, would have been marginal anyway).

 

This is as close to a "worst case scenario" as I could have developed in the offseason.

[TheLeviathan]

At least you have gone on record saying who you think should play center in lieu of Hicks, and you said Parmelee.

 

And I clearly said it was a crappy option too. I just favor not harming a pivotal prospect's development over a few weeks of bad defense. (Hell, it's not like we aren't doing that already. Throwing Parmelee out there is barely any worse than Santana. At least one is actually an outfielder)

 

It's funny, I keep being accused of giving up on Hicks. I'd argue forcing him to relearn something from grade school against professional pitchers is about as "giving up on him" as humanly possible.

[jokin]

The punishment?/injury?/Wally Pipping? of Hicks continues tonight in the Big Apple:

 

 

 

1. Danny Santana (S) CF

2. Brian Dozier ® 2B

3. Joe Mauer (L) 1B

4. Josh Willingham ® LF

5. Oswaldo Arcia (L) RF

6. Trevor Plouffe ® 3B

7. Kurt Suzuki ® C

8. Eduardo Nunez ® DH

9. Eduardo Escobar (S) SS

[drivlikejehu]

Rosario had a 104 RC+ in AA last year, right around league average. He was awful in the AFL - 45 RC+. He's nowhere near ready to help the Twins offensively, nor has he settled in anywhere defensively. I just hope he gets back on track. He's overrated by some fans here.

[jokin]

Rosario had a 104 RC+ in AA last year, right around league average. He was awful in the AFL - 45 RC+. He's nowhere near ready to help the Twins offensively, nor has he settled in anywhere defensively. I just hope he gets back on track. He's overrated by some fans here.

 

He's a Top 60-Top100 prospect by various different neutral rating services. While I agree, he's definitely a ways off offensively as a big leaguer, and as a 2nd Basemen, but as he's been an OFer all his life and is extremely fast, he'd probably be perfectly acceptable (when compared to the alternatives) as a MLB CF....I really don't see the evidence that the fans are overrating him.

[LaBombo]

Santana as a CF should leave everyone empty!

 

If that doesn't do it for you, had pretty good results with this...

[drivlikejehu]

He's a Top 60-Top100 prospect by various different neutral rating services. While I agree, he's definitely a ways off offensively as a big leaguer, and as a 2nd Basemen, but as he's been an OFer all his life and is extremely fast, he'd probably be perfectly acceptable (when compared to the alternatives) as a MLB CF....I really don't see the evidence that the fans are overrating him.

 

It's not necessarily a topic that is susceptible of hard evidence. I just think his domination of the low minors built up expectations that don't necessarily fit his MLB potential. Playing CF in the Majors isn't easy... lots of fast guys with a ton more experience at the position still struggle with it (e.g., Aaron Hicks).

 

Maybe my impression dates more to before the emergence of Dozier and Rosario's suspension, when there definitely were fans hoping for him to quickly take over 2B.

[70charger]

Rosario had a 104 RC+ in AA last year, right around league average. He was awful in the AFL - 45 RC+. He's nowhere near ready to help the Twins offensively, nor has he settled in anywhere defensively. I just hope he gets back on track. He's overrated by some fans here.

 

As I recall, he spent very little time in AA, with just half a season last year after raking at his previous stops. And isn't AA supposed to be the hardest jump to make in the minors? And he came right in, 3 years younger than the average AA player, and put up above average numbers?

 

Yeah, I think you're underselling him.

[LaBombo]

As I recall, he spent very little time in AA, with just half a season last year after raking at his previous stops. And isn't AA supposed to be the hardest jump to make in the minors? And he came right in, 3 years younger than the average AA player, and put up above average numbers?

 

Yeah, I think you're underselling him.

 

Agree with all of this, but it's not surprising to see somewhat increased skepticism about Twins prospects in general with several notable disappointments recently, and the only guy making a significant contribution in the majors (Dozier) less a prospect than a suspect until less than a year ago.

[jokin]

As I recall, he spent very little time in AA, with just half a season last year after raking at his previous stops. And isn't AA supposed to be the hardest jump to make in the minors? And he came right in, 3 years younger than the average AA player, and put up above average numbers?

 

Yeah, I think you're underselling him.

 

Big-time. Well stated.

[jokin]

The club is now officially piling on with... well.... feel free to decide what you think is going on...in what, may we now call, "The Hicks Affair"? In the midst of a light and celebratory post-game presser after an impressive win over the Yankees, Gardy went out of his way to take yet another dig at Hicks. Hicks was benched for the 3rd straight game, despite declaring that he was ready to play, but the story behind the story turns out to be getting even stranger by the day.

 

Hicks took early batting practice Friday and did some outfield work. He said he felt fine.

“I’m ready to start playing games again,’’ Hicks said.

 

 

But he asked during batting practice not to face any breaking balls, which had manager Ron Gardenhire a little baffled.

 

 

“He said his back is fine. He just didn’t want to see any breaking balls,’’ Gardenhire said. “I called the Yankees and they said they are going to throw some, so I can’t play him.’’

 

 

And now with the extent of Santana's eyelid injury yet unclear, be sure to tune in tomorrow, for the continuing story of... "All My Centerfielders"

[LaBombo]

The club is now officially piling on with... well.... feel free to decide what you think is going on...in what, may we now call, "The Hicks Affair"?

Good stuff about bad stuff.

 

Based on hazy recollections of Saturday morning cartoons, pretty sure Twins can have Hicks tread air until ACME can deliver a new interim CF from...

 

http://allthingsd.com/files/2011/06/wile-e-coyote1.jpg

[jokin]

Good stuff about bad stuff.

 

Based on hazy recollections of Saturday morning cartoons, pretty sure Twins can have Hicks tread air until ACME can deliver a new interim CF from...

 

http://allthingsd.com/files/2011/06/wile-e-coyote1.jpg

 

Ha! HIlarious. I withheld comment, figuring you'd come up with the appropriate 'toon chartacter- mission accomplished. In this instance, unseen in the picture, I think it was Gardy playing Yosemite Sam, who provided the last cliff-nudge to Wil E Hicks, with Danny Santana as The Roadrunner, who closes the scene with a fond farewell- "Meep-meep"

 

 

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51fn5x8IAPL.jpg

 

 

 

[The Wise One]

As I recall, he spent very little time in AA, with just half a season last year after raking at his previous stops. And isn't AA supposed to be the hardest jump to make in the minors? And he came right in, 3 years younger than the average AA player, and put up above average numbers?

 

Yeah, I think you're underselling him.

 

Since others seem like they can not answer the question and you bring up tha age thing relative to the other players, I ask you the same question. What does physical age have do do with talent? You have the talent or you do not. How does age as a variable contribute to the person's talent that it matters that they are younger than the other players.

[jokin]

Darren WolfsonVerified account ‏@DarrenWolfson

 

Does Jon Jay have fans in the #MNTwins front office? Yes. Cardinals have surplus of OFs. Only logical teams would talk. Twins hush-hush. Multiple Twins officials decline comment on background.

 

 

 

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6:31 AM - 31 May 2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

• an Turnquist ‏@2__CANEZ 1h
   
  @DarrenWolfson what would it take to get him do you think?
  
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  @DarrenWolfson Are they trying to work on a deal Darren?
  
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  @2__CANEZ A healthy amount. Probably Fien and a decent prospect.

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  “@DarrenWolfson: Does Jon Jay have fans in the #MNTwins front office? Yes. Cardinals have surplus of OFs." JUMP JUMP JUMP

[jokin]

Now that Hicks is starting again in CF today against the Yankees, by default, and with the Twins seemingly distancing themselves from him as quickly as a group of deer hunters from a skunk.... a new name is surfacing for the position, Jon Jay, and it's a good one. But he wouldn't come cheap, no matter the Cards motivation to deal:

 

Cardinals Could Deal From Outfield Surplus

 

By Jeff Todd [May 30, 2014 at 7:37pm CDT]

While the Cardinals’ compilation of outfield talent is enviable, it nonetheless presents real difficulties to the team’s front office, Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes in a piece that is well worth a full read. Indeed, that is precisely how GM John Mozeliak described things. “When you look at depth in baseball, it’s a good problem to have,” he said. “But I think we’re starting to get to the point where it might become a problem. So even though it’s a nice thing to have true depth in your system, at some point you’ve got to be able to play the depth.”

 

 

OF depth as a problem? Does anyone in Twinsland remember what that feels like?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/05/cardinals-could-deal-from-outfield-surplus.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29

[Shane Wahl]

The club is now officially piling on with... well.... feel free to decide what you think is going on...in what, may we now call, "The Hicks Affair"? In the midst of a light and celebratory post-game presser after an impressive win over the Yankees, Gardy went out of his way to take yet another dig at Hicks. Hicks was benched for the 3rd straight game, despite declaring that he was ready to play, but the story behind the story turns out to be getting even stranger by the day.

 

 

 

And now with the extent of Santana's eyelid injury yet unclear, be sure to tune in tomorrow, for the continuing story of... "All My Centerfielders"

 

What is wrong with this manager? Why air that out in public?

[drivlikejehu]

What is wrong with this manager? Why air that out in public?

 

Because he is an awful manager?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Giving up a prospect and Fien for a centerfielder feels a lot like a knee-jerk reaction to me.

 

With Hicks, Buxton, and Rosario in this system, giving up pieces for a centerfielder sounds really dumb. Play Fuld in the short-term and be done with it.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Meanwhile, this is Hicks since May 10:

 

May 10: 1-3, BB

May 11: 0-1, BB

May 14: 1-3, BB

May 15: 1-4, BB

May 16: 2-4

May 17: 1-2, BB

May 18: 1-2, BB

May 20: 0-3

May 21: 1-3

May 23: 0-2, 2BB

May 24: 0-3

May 26: 2-4 (both right handed against a right handed pitcher)

 

I look at this and ask, where's the crisis? It seems like he has turned a corner. If he has more confidence hitting right handed against right handed pitchers, perhaps he'll be better than he was over the last 15 games. That's a pretty good hitter at the bottom of the order. Let's give him a chance to see if it works.

 

Parmelee is barely a right fielder. The only reason he has done decently in TF is he studied that wall and he plays it very well. But his range is severely limited. Parmelee in center would be a blood bath.

 

Nice post, backed up by facts. Thanks.

[jokin]

Nice post, backed up by facts. Thanks.

 

But has he turned a corner? Maybe to a new organization. Thanks to Gardy sharing and airing the dirty laundry, Hicks only wants to see fastballs in batting practice...it appears he's a Dead Man Walking in the eyes of Twins management.

[jokin]

What is wrong with this manager? Why air that out in public?

 

I saw a bit of the video, it really seems like this was laughing and poking fun at the expense of a sick puppy.

[70charger]

Since others seem like they can not answer the question and you bring up tha age thing relative to the other players, I ask you the same question. What does physical age have do do with talent? You have the talent or you do not. How does age as a variable contribute to the person's talent that it matters that they are younger than the other players.

 

It's an interesting point you bring up, and I do admit to mostly assuming that age matters. It's a simplistic explanation, and one that may not fit every player the same way. However, simplistic explanations should only be avoided when they are so simple as to be misleading. I admit to not having hard data to back this up, but I would challenge anyone to look at a list of top performers and find more of them who were "late bloomers" than were consistently young for their level of professional ball. (Without cherry-picking!) Take the average age of a rookie ballplayer, and I'll bet you dollars to donuts there are vastly more top performers who debuted before that average age than on or after. I would bet that this would hold even if you limited the sample to ballplayers with, say, at least a five year career, to knock out the 28 year old rookies who are just injury fill-ins.

 

And I think common sense (not to say your skepticism isn't sensible) backs this up. If a high school senior gets a perfect SAT score, that's impressive. If a 13 year old does the same, isn't that more impressive? And wouldn't you expect more out of that 13 year old, and sooner? I could analogize to many other walks of life, but wouldn't the same apply to baseball?

[jokin]

Giving up a prospect and Fien for a centerfielder feels a lot like a knee-jerk reaction to me.

 

With Hicks, Buxton, and Rosario in this system, giving up pieces for a centerfielder sounds really dumb. Play Fuld in the short-term and be done with it.

 

Yep. But why not this guy, instead? Costs you only $$$ (and it might force them to bring Tony Oliva to the major league full-time):

 

[video=youtube_share;F3OpgaDQpI0]http://youtu.be/F3OpgaDQpI0

[LaBombo]

I'll bet you dollars to donuts there are vastly more top performers who debuted before that average age than on or after.

 

There are several good fangraphs articles that are not a comprehensive study but do tend to indicate that most players who are going to be really good are productive before 25, or else productive almost immediately if promoted later than that.

 

Part of the problem for Hicks is that guys like Gomez or Christian Guzman who stick in the majors despite taking a long time to figure it out at the plate usually offer very strong defense.

 

Hicks will probably need to improve his defense if he's going to get substantially more time to figure things out in the majors, and the Buxton arrival clock, while temporarily stopped, will start ticking again soon.