Next move we make?

[Thrylos]

Rosario caught cheating

 

Cheating? Whom? Himself? Sure

 

He tested positive for a street drug. Not PEDs

[Richie the Rally Goat]

it is tempting to stash in him AAA. But it is time that we bring up Meyer and May and rid ourselves of veterans that aren't as good.

It would be nice to have him in AAA when/if Correia and/or Pelfrey are traded and Meyer/May come up. If they both come up AAA starting pitching becomes a little thin. It wouldn't be all bad to have a guy in AAA to bring up in a pinch that if you lost Jim to waivers wouldn't be a large pain.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

...and this begs the question of how long we will rehash 2013 decisions...

For as long as the team keeps repeating the same mistake...

[Shane Wahl]

This brings up the question of when people will realize that begging the question does not mean bringing up the question.

 

I just fell in love with you a little bit because of this comment!

[lightfoot789]

The real question is should HIcks be sent back down (Thats how most of this Sizemore bit started)? The answer is no. It didn't help last year and I don't think it will this year either. Let him learn thru failure and grow from there. It's not like everyone isn't happy with where the Twins are right now anyway. Let's keep rolling the dice and go from there. No one on this board had real high expectation before the season anyway (stop lying). The youngins are learning as they go and can only help with next year. Let them play (good or bad) and build on it. Whether that means moving guys next off season or fixing some minor technical things. These kids and vets are learning how to win together and that is a good thing. Plus the future is not far behind (Meyers / Sano / Buxton).

[cmathewson]

^^This. I recognize we all have different attitudes about the best way to develop guys. Some think players have to master each level, except in rare cases like Mauer. I don't think there's a hard and fast rule. Each player develops differently. Until recently, I thought Hicks could benefit from seasoning in a low-pressure environment. But he seems to be improving. Right now, it's not even an option to send him down. But even when it is, if he keeps playing like this, he does't appear to need the seasoning after all. At any rate, why make that decision before it is possible, and appears necessary?

[ScrapTheNickname]

Fuld is the stopgap guy we already have.

 

Gardy is in the mood to give Hicks a lot of rope again. Okay.

 

When that fails, and Fuld is ready, bring Fuld up and send Hicks down.

 

No need for another stopgap guy such as Sizemore.

 

All three seem equally distasteful at treading water.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think Fuld can be a good stopgap, but maybe not for Hicks, but for Kubel. Kubel seems to be approaching at bats the same way Hicks does-a good batting eye but deep down hoping they don't throw you strikes. Since May 1, two RBI and one extra base hit combined. The only difference being that Hicks catches much more heat for this approach.

[jokin]

...and this begs the question of how long we will rehash 2013 decisions...

 

As long as they keep repeating foolish decisions, and especially with the same players?

[jokin]

This brings up the question of when people will realize that begging the question does not mean bringing up the question.

 

I "beg" to differ......

[jokin]

The real question is should HIcks be sent back down (Thats how most of this Sizemore bit started)? The answer is no. It didn't help last year and I don't think it will this year either. Let him learn thru failure and grow from there. It's not like everyone isn't happy with where the Twins are right now anyway. Let's keep rolling the dice and go from there. No one on this board had real high expectation before the season anyway (stop lying). The youngins are learning as they go and can only help with next year.

 

Let them play (good or bad) and build on it. Whether that means moving guys next off season or fixing some minor technical things. These kids and vets are learning how to win together and that is a good thing. Plus the future is not far behind (Meyers / Sano / Buxton).

 

This is pretty much the Twins' stance on how things currently stand with Hicks. As I've posited before, their actions indicate that they've already made their decision and they really don't have much invested any more on whether he succeeds or fails- the public call-out seems to be the tactic of last resort.

[jokin]

Fuld is the stopgap guy we already have.

 

Gardy is in the mood to give Hicks a lot of rope again. Okay.

 

When that fails, and Fuld is ready, bring Fuld up and send Hicks down.

 

No need for another stopgap guy such as Sizemore.

 

All three seem equally distasteful at treading water.

 

Except that it would be nice to have the short-term option of 3 guys, not 1 or 2 (it's entirely premature to assume that Fuld will come back fully recovered- remember what happened last year with Wilkin Ramirez, anyone?), in the upper system from AA to the major leagues who can actually play an acceptable CF, and no one blocking the other....or blocking the eventual successor....

[jokin]

^^This. I recognize we all have different attitudes about the best way to develop guys. Some think players have to master each level, except in rare cases like Mauer. I don't think there's a hard and fast rule. Each player develops differently. Until recently, I thought Hicks could benefit from seasoning in a low-pressure environment. But he seems to be improving. Right now, it's not even an option to send him down. But even when it is, if he keeps playing like this, he does't appear to need the seasoning after all.

 

 

At any rate, why make that decision before it is possible, and appears necessary?

 

Because running a business successfully is a chess game and not a checkers game.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Except that it would be nice to have the short-term option of 3 guys, not 1 or 2 (it's entirely premature to assume that Fuld will come back fully recovered- remember what happened last year with Wilkin Ramirez, anyone?), in the upper system from AA to the major leagues who can actually play an acceptable CF, and no one blocking the other....or blocking the eventual successor....

 

I've got to think Fuld will be fine. He will be back soon. He had been running into walls and throwing himself around his whole life before that without a concussion.

[jokin]

It's not really either of those. It's more of an N-player game with imperfect information.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extensive-form_game

 

That's why it's hard.

 

When the Twins start employing game theory, then we can discuss it's relevancy to their situation- how many in management even have a rudimentary college background in mathematics? As of now, I just would liked to have seen them play the probabilities and have anticipated, "a few moves ahead", of the likelihood, or at least the blatant possibility, that Hicks would struggle, both in 2013 and 2014, and that they still would not have solved CF or Leadoff-hitting depth issues, in which case, the Chess analogy works just fine for me, as well as for the Twins.

[jokin]

I've got to think Fuld will be fine. He will be back soon. He had been running into walls and throwing himself around his whole life before that without a concussion.

 

Yeah, I hope so too, but the trends in the medical monitoring of concussion symptoms have been a game-changer (literally).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think the Twins were playing checkers or peek-a-boo when they started putting infielders in the outfield. No evidence of game theory going on that I can see.

 

But I take that back-- then they started doubling down on it, so I guess they were actually playing black jack the whole time.

 

My bad.

[jokin]

I think the Twins were playing checkers or peek-a-boo when they started putting infielders in the outfield. No evidence of game theory going on that I can see.

 

But I take that back-- then they started doubling down on it, so I guess they were actually playing black jack the whole time.

 

My bad.

 

Nope, all good+++

[cmathewson]

Because running a business successfully is a chess game and not a checkers game.

 

I don't know how you play chess. I play it conditionally. I.e. if my opponent counters my opening, I respond accordingly. I don't respond with the appropriate move until I have to. If I try to force the issue, I typically end up at a disadvantage.

 

As to your statement about having both Fuld and Sizemore on the roster, it's not ideal. They are redundant. I'd rather have Sizemore. But I would not want two left-handed hitting fourth outfielders. If Sizemore is DFAd (not terribly likely, IMHO), you claim him. When Fuld is ready, you send him out on a rehab assignment. When that's done, you have a decision about which one to keep. This is how GMs do their jobs. They typically delay decisions until they need to. Decisions usually become easier with time if you let the players show you which ones to keep based on performance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

^This. It would be easy for the Twins to game the system for up to a month until they had to make a decision about Fuld.

[jorgenswest]

Assuming Willingham is going to play most games, it is hard to see how the left handed batting Arcia, Kubel and Parmelee can be utilized well in RF/DH. Pinto needs to capture some of that DH time.

 

Kubel or Parmelee? Who helps more? It was the same question at the end of spring training. Is the answer the same two months later?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Assuming Willingham is going to play most games, it is hard to see how the left handed batting Arcia, Kubel and Parmelee can be utilized well in RF/DH. Pinto needs to capture some of that DH time.

 

Kubel or Parmelee? Who helps more? It was the same question at the end of spring training. Is the answer the same two months later?

Parmelee has younger legs and is more likely to be claimed off of waivers at this point. He hasn't had the highest average, but has shown power. He has also more likely to continue hitting the way he had currently, where Kubel may continue to digress. Kubel has looked very aged over the last few weeks as the rigors of playing the outfield have caught up.

[DocBauer]

For now, Fuld is out of the equation. I'm sure the Twins know more than we do and have a better idea of what to expect in the fore coming days or weeks in regard. IF Sizmore were waived, and Fuld still on the outside as it appears, I'd say go ahead. We need that other option, probably.

 

But in my honest opinion, I think we've crossed a line with Hicks. I honestly think we've gotten to the point where working at the ML level, working with theTwins coaches, possibly platooning a bit, will be best for him. No offense to our coaches at Rochester, but much like Gomez, I think he needs experience and coaching at this point.

 

Arcia seems more than ready. After the SF series, he comes up and Herrman goes down to get the everyday play he needs.

 

Willingham is getting closer. Maybe a good week? Two at the most? Santana seems the most obvious choice so that he can play every day. But not only is he playing decently, and I'd like to see him more at SS, but at the moment he's probably our best backup CF option. So that leaves Kubel, a veteran with a good start but possibly on fumes now, Colabello, a journeyman struggling lately, or Nunez, a young inf. option deserving of opportunity. Three possibles who deserve time, but also deserve or could be replaced.

 

Pelfrey, despite a half-way Ok start at Rochester, is not ready.

 

Really, really hoping Tonkin comes back strong soon to replace Guerrier and that trades and/of DFA eliminate Pelfrey and/or Correia.

[howeda7]

Arcia and Willingham should be up Monday. Hermann and Colabello down.

 

Going forward split approximately: Suzuki 4 games a week at C, Pinto 2 each at C and DH. Willingham 3 games at DH and 2 in LF. Arcia 4 games a week in RF, 1 at DH. Parmalee 2 games each in RF and LF. Kubel 1 each in LF and at DH. Nunez a game a week in LF.

 

Bottom-line, Kubel should play far less with Arcia/Willingham back. Suzuki needs to cede some playing time to Pinto now that he's cooling off as well.

 

As for the pitchers, I see zero reason to bring Pelfrey back to the rotation. Deduno has certainly earned his spot. And when the trigger is pulled on Corriea, it should be for Meyer. If he's figured anything out, stick Pelf in the bullpen. If he hasn't, stick him on the 60-day DL or eat the $8 million and release him.

 

As for CF, if Fuld is out awhile as it appears, they need to do something. If it's not Sizemore, than someone else. Would they even consider giving Santana a real look there?

[jokin]

Arcia and Willingham should be up Monday. Hermann and Colabello down.

 

Going forward split approximately: Suzuki 4 games a week at C, Pinto 2 each at C and DH. Willingham 3 games at DH and 2 in LF. Arcia 4 games a week in RF, 1 at DH. Parmalee 2 games each in RF and LF. Kubel 1 each in LF and at DH. Nunez a game a week in LF.

 

Bottom-line, Kubel should play far less with Arcia/Willingham back. Suzuki needs to cede some playing time to Pinto now that he's cooling off as well.

 

As for the pitchers, I see zero reason to bring Pelfrey back to the rotation. Deduno has certainly earned his spot. And when the trigger is pulled on Corriea, it should be for Meyer. If he's figured anything out, stick Pelf in the bullpen. If he hasn't, stick him on the 60-day DL or eat the $8 million and release him.

 

As for CF, if Fuld is out awhile as it appears, they need to do something. If it's not Sizemore, than someone else. Would they even consider giving Santana a real look there?

 

Pretty good take...my guess though, is that they give LF back to Hammer 5 times a week, and that's where Kubel gets his cutback. FWIW, the postgame presser saw Gardy give Deduno pretty unconditional backing to keep his spot for some time to come. That doesn't mean that they will stand pat with only 12 pitchers, though, which leaves another position player vulnerable, bringing us to Santana.....

 

Santana really needs to be playing every day at SS, somewhere...and until Escobar goes full Alexi Casilla, there's nowhere for Santana to go but Rochester, whether Florimon is also there or not. Meanwhile, it appears that the "mini-surge" is over, as Hicks was completely overmatched again tonight, it seemed like he swung at only 2 out of 15 pitches, both resulting in weak contact, the Twins really need another option....if we knew that there was another SS on the horizon for 2015, I guess I could be convinced to having Santana become a Supe-Util player for now and take some regular reps in CF.

[old nurse]

When the Twins start employing game theory, then we can discuss it's relevancy to their situation- how many in management even have a rudimentary college background in mathematics? As of now, I just would liked to have seen them play the probabilities and have anticipated, "a few moves ahead", of the likelihood, or at least the blatant possibility, that Hicks would struggle, both in 2013 and 2014, and that they still would not have solved CF or Leadoff-hitting depth issues, in which case, the Chess analogy works just fine for me, as well as for the Twins.

 

How many in management do not have a rudimentary understanding of mathematics. They all have college degrees. Ryan mat be the only one that played baseball.

That there are teams out there that snap up the Mastroianis, Presleys and even Wilsons of the worlds should be a basic clue that there are not many out there. Another pretty basic concept is not everything you try works.

[old nurse]

I don't know how you play chess. I play it conditionally. I.e. if my opponent counters my opening, I respond accordingly. I don't respond with the appropriate move until I have to. If I try to force the issue, I typically end up at a disadvantage.

 

As to your statement about having both Fuld and Sizemore on the roster, it's not ideal. They are redundant. I'd rather have Sizemore. But I would not want two left-handed hitting fourth outfielders. If Sizemore is DFAd (not terribly likely, IMHO), you claim him. When Fuld is ready, you send him out on a rehab assignment. When that's done, you have a decision about which one to keep. This is how GMs do their jobs. They typically delay decisions until they need to. Decisions usually become easier with time if you let the players show you which ones to keep based on performance.

 

.211 ba,.287 OBP and the numbers are going down. I would think the optimism for a return of the old Sizemore will fade as the OPS goes below .600. The possibility of a DFA is pretty good

[AlwaysinModeration]

When the Twins start employing game theory, then we can discuss it's relevancy to their situation- how many in management even have a rudimentary college background in mathematics? As of now, I just would liked to have seen them play the probabilities and have anticipated, "a few moves ahead", of the likelihood, or at least the blatant possibility, that Hicks would struggle, both in 2013 and 2014, and that they still would not have solved CF or Leadoff-hitting depth issues, in which case, the Chess analogy works just fine for me, as well as for the Twins.

 

Going into the season last year, they elected to promote a guy from AA to Opening Day lead-off CF. He had an up-and-down record in the minors, repeating levels and having clunker years. It could have worked--he could have excelled immediately. But it could have very conceivably failed, leaving them with the option of admitting error and demoting him, or digging their heels in and sticking with him.

 

Alternatively, by starting him at AAA, there were no bad options. If he did well, he could be promoted (and saved a FA year in the process.). If he failed, the move would have shown he needed time in AAA.

 

I don't know what strategy game is the right analogy, but choosing a path very likely to leave you with no good options over a path with only good options/outcomes seems pretty bad. Not to mention the fact that the decision seemed to fly in the face of the recognition of where the team was in terms of it's point in the rebuilding process.

[stringer bell]

I clicked "like" on AM's post above, but I do have a nit to pick. Going into the season, Hicks had 124 days of service in MLB. In order for the Twins to bank another year of service time, Hicks would have had to have been in the minors for four months. It is possible that Hicks could qualify for Super 2 arbitration after next season and a demotion would probably end that scenario.

[cmathewson]

Based on recent comments, it doesn't look like Gardy wants Pelfrey around until he can hit 94 again. They say it's mechanical. That seems unlikely. He seems like a guy who could throw 95 flat footed if he horses it. He can't horse it because his shoulder won't let him, IMO. Anyway, what happens when he runs out of rope on his rehab and he's still sitting at 88?