Off-Day Transactions? (Predictions)

[Shane Wahl]

As a process-of-elimination callup, Mastro does make sense, but (as I just got done typing into another thread) if he will be used as often as Clete has been, it means a lineup like yesterday's will become weighted with four pure table-setters on a team lacking enough guys demonstrated to drive them in. Mastro also is best suited as a leadoff man, so his strength will be wasted batting second or eighth or ninth. If Doumit/Plouffe or some other combination can emerge to handle RF, Mastro is fine as the utility outfielder, along the lines Revere could contribute. Otherwise, he doesn't happen to be a good fit for this team, as currently constituted.

Getting on base is the most important skill as a batter in baseball. There is no disputing this.

 

SET THE DAMN TABLE, MASTRO!!!!! Please. Good lord, the Twins don't have that going for them at all. They have three guys above a .316 OBP and number 4 is BEN REVERE. That is disturbing (by the way, those three guys should be batting 1, 2, and 3). Point is there is just no way that Mastroianni would play as terribly as Thomas, and he would probably be better than what the Twins had in Jason Repko. And they probably could just spell Span with him at the top of the lineup. And he is a lower-tier prospect/talent as far as impact goes than Revere, so Revere should spend more time working on batting. Same can be said for Florimon vs. Dozier as well.

 

Hell, I thought that Mastroianni, Ramirez, and Florimon were signed precisely to be the guys to fill in on the Twins roster instead of prospects/young players (Parmelee, Revere) and joke chumps (Thomas).

[deanlambrecht]

Since Gardy's out, it won't happen, but the move I've been hoping the team would make since 2007 is to make sure Joe Vavra is never, ever, our hitting coach again, under any circumstances. Otherwise, Seth's player moves make good sense. At this point, there's not many changes that can be worse than the status quo...

[Shane Wahl]

I am okay with the Thomas - Mastroianni swap as well as the Hendricks - Walters.

 

I like Thrylos' suggesting of Ray Chang as we do need a backup infielder and he can play 2B, 3B and SS. A pitcher can be DFA'ed or optioned to make it happen.

He even played a minimum amount of first base in 2010 and earlier, I believe. He really probably is a backup at all four positions.

[ScottyB]

One more move - demote Butera the second Mauer can catch, and bring up anything in his place. He's a waste on the bench, strike that, he's a waste on the team.

[ScottyB]

From Joe C's article in Strib:

 

Quotes from Gardy:

 

“A terrible night for Twins baseball. We got dominated by a very good pitcher over there. But we played terrible. We didn’t pitch worth a darn. Not aggressive. Missed a play or two. And got no-hit by a very good pitcher over there, which doesn’t make it any easier for our baseball team.”

Gardenhire noted that the Twins had an off day Thursday to regroup before opening a three-game series in Seattle on Friday. Then he said, “Questions? And make them quick.”

 

Asked if Liam Hendriks’ performance (2.1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER) made it tougher on the offense, Gardenhire said, “He just didn’t pitch well. The kid didn’t get anything done. We didn’t hold runners. They ran all over the place on us. All the little things that a baseball team’s supposed to do, we didn’t do.

“Letting guys steal second, letting guys steal third. You go to the mound, you bring a pitcher in, tell him, ‘You’ve got to slide step. He’s going to steal third if we don’t.’ And and what do we do? The first pitch, pick your leg up and they take off running. If the guy hadn’t swung, he was standing up.

“That’s not acceptable. That’s not good baseball by any team. So we have to do a lot better. Running all over us. Looked like Little Leaguers out there, and that’s a bunch of bull.

 

“OK, that’s enough. I’m not going to go any further. Have a good night. Congratulations to Mr. Weaver.”

 

You don't need a crystal ball to tell you that Hendricks is about to be sent down. I think heads are going to roll.

[Mr. Ed]

Scotty, please just put a link in, or paraphrase. The cops'll get you for directly pasting from Strib.

[mjstef2]

Let's go get Eric Bedard. He's better than anything we are throwing out there right now.

[Seth Stohs]

ScottyB, I think he was also speaking about Burnett because he was on the mound when Hunter stole second.

[Thrylos]

That Gardy quotation makes me laugh, and cry.

 

Laugh because no matter if they held runners or did a few little things different here and there, that was a no-hit whopping. Those things would have no effect at the outcome of the game. Ok. maybe they would lose 4-0.

 

Cry because he said that the team had all day Thursday to regroup on the same breath he was shoving reporters out of his office so he can make the next flight out of town, 2 days before he needed to make it. And the sad thing is that no-one of those reporters dare to question him why he left last night, instead of, let's say Friday night...

[Mike Sixel]

Don't forget, Ryan was in charge of the drafts that did NOT develop players to come up the last three years....so I hope he's learned something new....or the scouts have, but let's be honest, none of that has changed in years and years.

[Yoshii]

Is it too early to bring up the franchise: Sano?

[ashbury]

Getting on base is the most important skill as a batter in baseball. There is no disputing this.

Of course there is; this is baseball.

 

OBP is important. So is slugging percentage. For the scoring of actual runs, it seems that balance between the two is more important than either alone. See the pretty chart near the middle of this article , which summarizes a correlation to run scoring with OBP and SLG (among others), and these two come out almost exactly the same as each other (SLG actually has the slight and probably unimportant edge). An even better correlation to run scoring is by combining the two, i.e. OPS. (Better stats than the apples-plus-oranges kind of computation that OPS is, don't add enough to bother with here.)

 

And my point here is that the 2012 team is already weighted toward OBP. At this writing the Twins rank 8th in the league in OBP with .313 (league average is .317). They rank 13th in SLG with .370 (league average is .407). Not coincidentally at all, IMO, they also rank 13th in runs scored per game with 3.62 (league average is 4.34).

 

Their OBP is not good, if the goal is to be above average in scoring runs. It needs to be improved, and Darin should do that compared to the at-bats Clete is getting. But on his record, he will contribute less than even Clete, in the long run, in slugging, and this is the Twins' glaring need this year.

[TiberTwins]

All these moves are fine but the Twins do not seem to have a plan as to what direction they want to go right now. They are doing what they always seem to do, stay right in the middle and not commit and wait for something to happen. Usually it turns out alright but they never seem to commit, they seem afraid to take a chance or a real risk. If they committed to something the fan base may not like it but at least then they can say they tried something that did not work instead or being reactionary.

[ScottyB]

Scotty, please just put a link in, or paraphrase. The cops'll get you for directly pasting from Strib.

Sorry - next time I'll link

[Mike Sixel]

TiberTwins has it exactly correct....neither willing to commit to youth, nor to excellence.

[Shane Wahl]

Of course there is; this is baseball.

 

OBP is important. So is slugging percentage. For the scoring of actual runs, it seems that balance between the two is more important than either alone. See the pretty chart near the middle of this article , which summarizes a correlation to run scoring with OBP and SLG (among others), and these two come out almost exactly the same as each other (SLG actually has the slight and probably unimportant edge). An even better correlation to run scoring is by combining the two, i.e. OPS. (Better stats than the apples-plus-oranges kind of computation that OPS is, don't add enough to bother with here.)

 

And my point here is that the 2012 team is already weighted toward OBP. At this writing the Twins rank 8th in the league in OBP with .313 (league average is .317). They rank 13th in SLG with .370 (league average is .407). Not coincidentally at all, IMO, they also rank 13th in runs scored per game with 3.62 (league average is 4.34).

 

Their OBP is not good, if the goal is to be above average in scoring runs. It needs to be improved, and Darin should do that compared to the at-bats Clete is getting. But on his record, he will contribute less than even Clete, in the long run, in slugging, and this is the Twins' glaring need this year.

Fair enough, but note in that article that somehow when giving OBP 1.8 times the value of Slugging in OPS', the prediction of runs scored is better. I am not sure how that works when slugging, as you noted is a tiny bit more predictive.

 

I agree that they are similar overall with flip-floppy OBP and SLG numbers in their careers, but whereas one is two years younger and hitting well in Rochester and the other has been completely terrible for the Twins, I think it is reasonable to conclude that if they were given the same number of plate appearances this year, Mastroianni would out-perform.

 

And there is a log-jam in Rochester with Tosoni being back as well. And Parmelee is going to have to go back too.

[Shane Wahl]

Is it too early to bring up the franchise: Sano?

To Fort Myers? Yes, it is too early (but he definitely should get at least a taste there in July or August).

 

I know you mean the Twins, but that is not a serious consideration.

[DJSim22]

Seth- So you do not believe in 1982 ideal of learning how to win together? Jut curious.

[DJSim22]

Nothing will happen with Gardy away from the team imo. If anything does, we'll release a hitter and bring up another pitcher because everything they've been doing makes zero sense to me.

[radiodewey]

Yep it's going to take 2 to 3 years to clean up this mess

[ashbury]

Fair enough, but note in that article that somehow when giving OBP 1.8 times the value of Slugging in OPS', the prediction of runs scored is better.

I think the reason for this is the apples-and-oranges nature of the two stats - OBP typically resides in a narrower range than SLG. Last year, worst-to-best range for AL team OBP was .282-.347 (a spread of .065) while for SLG it was .332-.470 (spread of .138). If they both seem to have the same correlation to runs scored, you need to scale one up to the other for certain kinds of computation. Don't know how they arrived at 1.8X, but since no one stays in the majors if they bat .000, it's the range that matters more than the absolute level of the numbers. Said another way, being .050 above league average in SLG is good, but not as good as being .050 above average in OBP, and it's not because OBP is more valuable, it's because of the nature of the two stats - perfection in SLG would be 4.000 but you can't go higher than 1.000 in OBP.

 

Anyway, I'll be tickled pink for Darin if he gets promoted for more than his cuppa with Toronto last season.

[Shane Wahl]

I think the reason for this is the apples-and-oranges nature of the two stats - OBP typically resides in a narrower range than SLG. Last year, worst-to-best range for AL team OBP was .282-.347 (a spread of .065) while for SLG it was .332-.470 (spread of .138). If they both seem to have the same correlation to runs scored, you need to scale one up to the other for certain kinds of computation. Don't know how they arrived at 1.8X, but since no one stays in the majors if they bat .000, it's the range that matters more than the absolute level of the numbers. Said another way, being .050 above league average in SLG is good, but not as good as being .050 above average in OBP, and it's not because OBP is more valuable, it's because of the nature of the two stats - perfection in SLG would be 4.000 but you can't go higher than 1.000 in OBP.

 

Anyway, I'll be tickled pink for Darin if he gets promoted for more than his cuppa with Toronto last season.

Ok, I gotcha. That makes more sense.

[benhertz]

Rosterman, how is Jared Burton on the short leash? In his last 8 appearances, he has thrown 8.1 innings of no-hit baseball with 2 walks, 2 HBP, and 8 strikeouts.

 

Zero of the 4 inherited runners have scored off him this season.

[benhertz]

Gardy seemed pretty upset with Matt Maloney last night, so I could see Maloney and Jeff Gray (more walks than strikeouts) getting designated for assignment. Liam Hendriks needs more time in AAA.

 

I see the Twins bringing up only two pitchers, most likely Jeff Manship and Scott Diamond, since they are on the 40-man roster already. Kyle Waldrop could be another possibility, once he completes his rehab assignment.

 

For batters, Clete Thomas is most likely to be DFA, due to his inability to make contact. I don't know who the Twins will want to bring up to replace him.

[glunn]

From Joe C's article in Strib:

 

Quotes from Gardy:

Asked if Liam Hendriks’ performance (2.1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER) made it tougher on the offense, Gardenhire said, “He just didn’t pitch well. The kid didn’t get anything done. We didn’t hold runners. They ran all over the place on us. All the little things that a baseball team’s supposed to do, we didn’t do.

“Letting guys steal second, letting guys steal third. You go to the mound, you bring a pitcher in, tell him, ‘You’ve got to slide step. He’s going to steal third if we don’t.’ And and what do we do? The first pitch, pick your leg up and they take off running. If the guy hadn’t swung, he was standing up.

“That’s not acceptable. That’s not good baseball by any team. So we have to do a lot better. Running all over us. Looked like Little Leaguers out there, and that’s a bunch of bull.

 

“OK, that’s enough. I’m not going to go any further. Have a good night. Congratulations to Mr. Weaver.”

 

You don't need a crystal ball to tell you that Hendricks is about to be sent down. I think heads are going to roll.

To be fair to Hendricks, if Span had been able to hold on to Morales line drive in the first inning, then Hendricks may have had more confidence after that. And a lot of the hits early on were grounders between first and second and between second and third, not up the middle or in the air. There were 4 or 5 ground balls that the Twins dove for and missed by inches.

 

Hendricks looked pissed as he walked to the dugout after getting pulled. It's clear that he is trying his best. He also had good velocity, but seemed to lack an "out" pitch.

 

Hendricks seemed good in spring training and maybe he just needs a win or two to develop more confidence. And it's not as though he had done that much worse than the other starters.

[Shane Wahl]

Hendriks has to work on mixing his pitches appropriately, because he hits his spots. I don't totally hate the idea that he does that with the Twins, actually, but Rochester may be best for him.

[stringer bell]

Gardy seemed pretty upset with Matt Maloney last night, so I could see Maloney and Jeff Gray (more walks than strikeouts) getting designated for assignment. Liam Hendriks needs more time in AAA.

 

I see the Twins bringing up only two pitchers, most likely Jeff Manship and Scott Diamond, since they are on the 40-man roster already. Kyle Waldrop could be another possibility, once he completes his rehab assignment.

 

 

For batters, Clete Thomas is most likely to be DFA, due to his inability to make contact. I don't know who the Twins will want to bring up to replace him.

While no runners offically stole on Maloney, they ran on him immediately after he was inserted in the game. It was already 6-0, so I don't know if it really mattered that much. Maloney had the same thing happen to him in his first game in Baltimore (in a much closer game).

 

I still don't think Maloney should be DFAed. Even though his numbers are bad, they are the result of one truly bad outing (8H, 5ER in 1.2 innings). He is a lefty with okay or better stuff and is only 28. He may be better suited to starting and goodness knows there should be opportunities to start on this club.

[Seth Stohs]

Seth- So you do not believe in 1982 ideal of learning how to win together? Jut curious.

I do, bring a bunch up together in july/august whrn they're more ready. They'll still struggle for a couple of years. Front office also needs to clear some clutter, determine who to build around (besides Mauer), & find out what they have in some question marks (Slama, Manship, DeVries and others) to see if any of them fit. It's got to be a process.

[Seth Stohs]

Rosterman, how is Jared Burton on the short leash? In his last 8 appearances, he has thrown 8.1 innings of no-hit baseball with 2 walks, 2 HBP, and 8 strikeouts.

 

Zero of the 4 inherited runners have scored off him this season.

Agreed, Burton is pretty safe these days.

[roger]

Good morning Seth, I agree that it is time to do something and had been thinking about Hendriks. He has the potential to be another Radke which this team really needs, but needs another half season at Rochester. I think the smartest move would be to send him back down and bring up Jeff Manship, who has been great of late. Slide Swarzak into the 5th starter role and let Manship take over long relief. Although Manship will need a couple days as he pitched 3.1 no-hit innings last night for his second win.

 

Agree that there should be more moves, although that may wait a few weeks to see if Ramirez is for real. I would also prefer to keep all the kids at Rochester until mid-July then bring them up as a group after Mr. Ryan opens several spots on the roster with trades.

 

This year's draft is considered weaker than normal, does next year have a super star (ie, Strasburg or Harper caliber player) for our #1 pick overall?