Article: Twins Draft Preview: Aaron Nola

[tobi0040]

Scott Boras is Chris Parmelee's agent. And Alex Meyer's.

 

I would agree prior to the slotting process. But Boras doesn't have much leverage at this point. Especially for a high school kid, if they go to school they have to go for 3 years.

 

It does mean down the road we may not be able to sign them and it certainly means we aren't getting a sweetheart, pre arbitration/free agency deal. But you take BPA now in my opinion. If you get a good player for 4-5 years on the cheap and flip them, it isnt' the end of the world. Look at the A's.

[Mike Sixel]

How many pitches is teh LSU coach having this guy throw?

[Lonestar]

I agree with BPA. But then again if it's that close, it could make a difference.

 

I agree with flipping a good player. Hopefully they are not on TJS rehab when you want to trade them.

 

If Rodon were to slip to 1-5 (which was a real possibility in March), I might pass because of the possibility that Boras would 'advise' him to pull an Appel.

[Monkeypaws]

It would be fun to get someone who can pitch - throwing heat is nice, but I love to see command and the ability to change speeds. If those pitches have movement, all the better. He may not be Maddux, but the Radke comp would be fine with me.

[DocBauer]

Isn't it funny how the perception of draft prospects changes after a few weeks to a month or so. (The recent, later than normal, NFL draft is a perfect example with Bridgewater as a target). Just a month or so ago, most everyone really, really held out hope SS Turner would SOMEHOW slide to #5 for us. Now, he's being treated almost as an also-ran because his good senior season isn't as good as his last two seasons.

 

I think you always draft, to a degree, based on team need. In baseball, it's not just at the ML level. With very little exception, anyone drafted in the baseball draft, unlike the NFL or NBA where you hope to plug in fairly quickly, is going to be at least 3 years away from filling any holes and contributing. But unlike the other two sports, you're not just drafting for ML club need down the road, but more due to lack of depth at specific positions within the entire organization. Obviously, the more prospects at a given position, the better chance one is going to develop and stick.

 

That being said, with the vague nature of player development within baseball, I think you have to be very cognizant of the BPA. Similar to the Vikings when they chose the likes of Randy Moss and Adrian Peterson, for example. Each of those years, the Vikings didnt have a real need for either of those players, but they were supreme talents who could make an impact, and did.

 

For example, with the Twins, if the best player available at #5 this year was a stud 3B, even though we have Sano, would you pass on him to take a "lesser" talent to stock another position? It's an interesting discussion and dilemma. Especially because whoever it is, even if they turn out to be what you hope, you aren't plugging them in to 2015.

 

You can never have enough pitching. Guys get hurt, guys don't develop. Failed starters can end up making good to excellent relievers. Perkins, Duensing, Swarzak would be just a few recent examples for the Twins. Now, I don't know if Nola's arm has been abused in college or not. Always a big concern when drafting college arms, especially the top arms. If healthy, I really like Nola for his experience, fortitude, and stuff and potential. And I really like his delivery. I'm surprised from his numbers that his control doesn't have a higher rating. Seems like a little better control with his breaking pitch, whatever it might be, with his FB and change, he very well could be a very solid/good #2-3 who might climb quickly.

 

Love it. But that being said, overall, when examining the top talents of the BPA at #5, and organizational depth, is a pitcher like Nola the best pick at this time? Have read that Johnson's proposed move to the OF instead of C is not due to his ability to stick at C, but simply to move his bat more quickly along. Gordon offers great bloodlines, a solid (possibly not great) set of overall skills along with great defensive ability. And everything I've ever heard or read about Turner would seem to indicate he is a legitimate SS who doesn't have to move. Gordon might have the best ceiling, Turner the more proven player at this point, with even better speed, who can reach the majors quicker, and thus might make him a "safer" choice.

 

Turner's only problem may that he's having a poorer season than the past two, whether that be injury, being pitched around, or just bad luck. Again, a month or so ago, we would all be clamoring for him to be the pick if available.

 

The Twins actually have a few decent C's to watch the next couple of years besides Pinto. With patience, Johnson might be better than all of them. The Twins also have a few intriguing prospects at SS in Santana, Polanco and Goodrum who might settle the position for the long term. Gordon might be better than any of them. Turner might just be a quicker to rise and safer pick. NOT to knock his ceiling potential. His "down" senior season is still good, as has been his career, as is his potential.

 

Push come to shove, my short list at pick #5 is Nola or Turner.

[AlwaysinModeration]

How many pitches is teh LSU coach having this guy throw?

 

I looked through his game logs this year...mostly 100-115 per outing.

[Lonestar]

From BA's write up of yesterday's game

Scouts behind home plate said they saw exactly what they always see from Nola. He ran his fastball up to 95-96 mph in the first, settled in at 92-94 and held that velocity all the way through the eighth inning. He threw his 79-81 mph slider for strikes, and the pitch was particularly effective when he threw it on the inside corner against righthanded hitters, because his low slot, extension and the depth of the pitch make it look like it’s coming right at them, before crossing the plate. And he mixed in his 83-84 mph changeup effectively, often for groundball outs against lefties. As usual his command of his entire repertoire was pinpoint after that first inning.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/sec-tournament-notebook-a-salute-to-nola/

 

Fastball sounds better than I thought. Changeup doesn't read to me like it's a plus pitch.

[Sleestax]

"The biggest reason not to draft him is that this might be the last chance the Twins have for a while to have this high of a high draft pick, and therefore it might be the last really good chance to get the SS of the future in a guy like Gordon.

"

 

Yeah Aaron has a good point here about it being our last top 10 pick possibly in quite some time. This is a #5 pick and somebody has to be drafted that is supposed to make the team eventually. I dont watch much draft prospect video b/c I trust our staff to make the best pick. If the Twins are over .500 now and they are I think they know this is the last best chance to sign a contributer and possibly an all-star.

[Einstein]

Did anyone watch Nola last night? Sounds like another solid outing.

 

http://www.nola.com/lsu/index.ssf/2014/06/lsus_aaron_nola_shuts_up_houst.html

[Trevor0333]

I'd honestly prefer they take Nola whom I like over Kolek but not Aiken or Rodon. The system is really getting deep in solid high potential SP in the lower minors. This is a hopefully the last chance to add to the top with high level upside.

 

Then maybe go for a low cost sign for the 2nd round pick and add that saved $ use on an international signing SS.

[Vervehound]

Average is 50, above average is 55, plus is 60-65, plus-plus is 70+.

 

As for Nola, I'm just not a fan. If the Twins want a 6'1-6'2 pitcher give me Grant Holmes because of his raw stuff. Maybe I'm just a sucker for stuff or maybe it is because rarely is fastest to the bigs/safest ever turn out to be accurate.

 

Wimmers, Gilmartin, and Hultzen (no I'm not comparing stuff but the label all of them were given) injuries/set backs have stopped all three from quick to the big arms. Brian Johnson was given the same label in 2012 and he might actually live up to it. I just don't like when part of a players value is link to quickness to the bigs.

 

i've been on nola for a long time - i believe the longest of anyone on this board (see the first few pages of the draft thread) he's a freak in that he's a consummate maestro of the strikezone while retaining plus stuff.

 

you do seem overly enamored by raw stuff. i'd remind you that anyone not named nolan ryan will need to eventually dial back his stuff in favor of command and pitch economy. i like tyler kolek and am not scared by him being the heaviest high school pitcher ever taken in the first round. i will tell you, however, that unless he converts to the pen, he will not be throwing 100 mph bb's but will likely sit 92-95. it's cool to know that he could spike up the radar gun at the all star game like when brad penny was suddenly hitting 99mph a few years back, but for the most part that's not useful velocity and will need refining.

 

picking between nola and kolek (what a contrast in prospects, btw) would be very difficult for me and i'd be happy if we went either way, especially because as much as i love nola, i'm not sure if he's built to be a workhorse. that said, they're both excellent prospects.

[notoriousgod71]

i've been on nola for a long time - i believe the longest of anyone on this board (see the first few pages of the draft thread) he's a freak in that he's a consummate maestro of the strikezone while retaining plus stuff.

 

you do seem overly enamored by raw stuff. i'd remind you that anyone not named nolan ryan will need to eventually dial back his stuff in favor of command and pitch economy. i like tyler kolek and am not scared by him being the heaviest high school pitcher ever taken in the first round. i will tell you, however, that unless he converts to the pen, he will not be throwing 100 mph bb's but will likely sit 92-95. it's cool to know that he could spike up the radar gun at the all star game like when brad penny was suddenly hitting 99mph a few years back, but for the most part that's not useful velocity and will need refining.

 

picking between nola and kolek (what a contrast in prospects, btw) would be very difficult for me and i'd be happy if we went either way, especially because as much as i love nola, i'm not sure if he's built to be a workhorse. that said, they're both excellent prospects.

 

Why do we care if guys eventually have to dial it back a little? Chances are they won't be with the twins by that point anyway.