Interesting Roster decisions coming

[jokin]

They had enough depth going into this year: Hicks and two replacement players. All they had to do was hold onto the depth they had. When Fuld came along, they could have DFAd Presley for that upgrade, keeping one guy with options in case of injury.

 

 

That's the problem, "they had Hicks." The depth they had was enough, for 4th OF, emergency relief depth. It was obvious from last year's disastrous debut, Hicks should have been slated for AAA, with a FA signing or trade. Bonifacio, Sizemore.....

[jokin]

I can't help but wonder if the plan for this season was to make it work with whatever they might have in the time being and then keep Buxton up after the Future's game in July.

 

Maybe so, but the Twins seem to have either overestimated what they had or decided to go cheap. And they learned nothing from the disaster that was 2013. It would have cost very little to secure an additional bona fide starter-capable CF, both in 2013 and 2014.

[cmathewson]

That's the problem, "they had Hicks." The depth they had was enough, for 4th OF, emergency relief depth. It was obvious from last year's disastrous debut, Hicks should have been slated for AAA, with a FA signing or trade. Bonifacio, Sizemore.....

 

Sizemore is not a center fielder anymore. Bonifacio made some sense. His OPS last year was slightly better than Hicks. But if you're trying to build a winner, and you are not likely to contend this year, you don't hand the starting job to a guy like Bonifacio. It's all hind sight.

[TKGuy]

Do we trust Nunez as the backup to 3b and SS then?

[Ultima Ratio]

I think the Twins front office is very surprised to be sitting two games above .500 at this point. This explains the mind-boggling gambles a bit early in the year (not that I agreed with it at all) with Bartlett and CF roster bungling. They probably thought (with good reason… and this still may very well happen) that we'd be 8-10 games back by this point and hoped for some miracles, buzz and name-recognition in another lost season. Now that we are above .500 I bet (I hope) they rue those decisions.

[jokin]

Sizemore is not a center fielder anymore. Bonifacio made some sense. His OPS last year was slightly better than Hicks. But if you're trying to build a winner, and you are not likely to contend this year, you don't hand the starting job to a guy like Bonifacio. It's all hind sight.

 

You're simply wrong here, this is most certainly not hindsight. There were many, many of us begging and pleading for the Twins to shore up the obvious yawning talent and inexperience gap in CF with both of these names (and others), from the day they became available in the offseason- and cheaply acquirable at that.

 

Sizemore has played 13 games in CF for the Red Sox this year, 19 in LF, 4 in RF. Exactly the kind of flexibility you'd want in a defensively challenged OF. Regarding Bonifacio, he made perfect sense, a leadoff batter, and a CF who can also spell 2nd, 3rd and SS. 5th best baserunner in all of baseball since 2010.....the Twins inexplicably chose Bartlett instead. And of course you have Bonifacio there, not to "hand the starting job to"....no one has ever said that....Bonifacio is just precisely the depth required when the other options blow up in your face....simple to play him when things are going bad, keep on the bench when things are going well and DFA when things are going really well.

[WLFINN]

I am just glad that Mastro and Presley aren't taking any at-bats from Hicks at this point, even if we are left with certainly less than ideal backup situation. Does Fuld have any options left?

[jokin]

I am just glad that Mastro and Presley aren't taking any at-bats from Hicks at this point, even if we are left with certainly less than ideal backup situation. Does Fuld have any options left?

 

No.

[cmathewson]

You're simply wrong here, this is most certainly not hindsight. There were many, many of us begging and pleading for the Twins to shore up the obvious yawning talent and inexperience gap in CF with both of these names (and others), from the day they became available in the offseason- and cheaply acquirable at that.

 

Sizemore has played 13 games in CF for the Red Sox this year, 19 in LF, 4 in RF. Exactly the kind of flexibility you'd want in a defensively challenged OF. Regarding Bonifacio, he made perfect sense, a leadoff batter, and a CF who can also spell 2nd, 3rd and SS. 5th best baserunner in all of baseball since 2010.....the Twins inexplicably chose Bartlett instead. And of course you have Bonifacio there, not to "hand the starting job to"....no one has ever said that....Bonifacio is just precisely the depth required when the other options blow up in your face....simple to play him when things are going bad, keep on the bench when things are going well and DFA when things are going really well.

 

Nobody was saying we should sign Sizemore. He looked washed up. Done. Lots of people thought Bonifacio was a good fit. I did not. I still don't, for the reasons I claimed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The problem with picking up Bonifacio is that he's not really much different than Alex Presley and the Twins already had that guy on the roster. Similar age, similar mediocre bat (in fact, until this season Presley had a considerably better bat).

 

To me, all of this still boils down to "What happened with Alex Presley?" Why'd the Twins release him? Why is his OPS+ only 51 in Houston?

 

And, for the love of God, why Jason Bartlett?

[Beezer07]

If the Twins had signed Sizemore as a CF "option", I probably would have quit being a fan. Although I didn't when they held onto Bartlett as the CF option, so take that for what it's worth.

[jokin]

Nobody was saying we should sign Sizemore. He looked washed up. Done. Lots of people thought Bonifacio was a good fit. I did not. I still don't, for the reasons I claimed.

 

Wrong. Just wrong. I for one commented on it, as Sizemore was conducting workouts for teams. And you also have been proven wrong on Bonifacio, who has worked out just fine for the Cubs. Having him batting in front of Dozier, while taking the pressure off of Hicks in CF, clearly would not have cost us winnable games by playing infielders in the OF, plus enormously increasing production from Dozier and Mauer batting 2 and 3 behind Bonifacio's .335 OBP and 11 stolen bases.

[kdrupp09]

And, for the love of God, why Jason Bartlett?

 

This was probably the most mind boggling decision made, especially after he did not hit or field very well in Spring Training.

[jokin]

If the Twins had signed Sizemore as a CF "option", I probably would have quit being a fan. Although I didn't when they held onto Bartlett as the CF option, so take that for what it's worth.

 

That seems like a very strange stance to take. Sizemore's a very professional guy, who has proven healthy, if not overly effective- he could have occupied a bench spot and been DFA'd at any time without concern for the long-term consequences to the team. It would have been a far less speculative gamble signing than Bartlett.... and he was a cheaper gamble than the Twins took with Bartlett, Kubel and Guerrier, as it only cost the Red Sox $750,000 to find out what he can still do.

[jokin]

The problem with picking up Bonifacio is that he's not really much different than Alex Presley and the Twins already had that guy on the roster. Similar age, similar mediocre bat (in fact, until this season Presley had a considerably better bat).

 

To me, all of this still boils down to "What happened with Alex Presley?" Why'd the Twins release him? Why is his OPS+ only 51 in Houston?

 

And, for the love of God, why Jason Bartlett?

 

Not true about Presley's bat. Bonifacio is a career .323 OBP, while Presley's is .295. And Bonifcio turned his OBP into one of the best SB rates in all of baseball, which essentially negated Presley's SLG advantage. Plus you have Bonifacio with 3 straight years of 0.5 dWAR or better, Presley's dWAR...negative for all but one year in his career.

[Beezer07]

Sizemore has "proven healthy" by staying healthy for two months after years of getting injured and sitting games/seasons out? I think not.

[jokin]

Sizemore has "proven healthy" by staying healthy for two months after years of getting injured and sitting games/seasons out? I think not.

 

He's still playing and starting, I think when you're buying a short term, very cheap, one-year bridge option, he's proven to be a healthier, cheaper and MUCH better alternative to the Twins chosen options of Bartlett, Fuld and Mastro.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not true about Presley's bat. Bonifacio is a career .323 OBP, while Presley's is .295. And Bonifcio turned his OBP into one of the best SB rates in all of baseball, which essentially negated Presley's SLG advantage. Plus you have Bonifacio with 3 straight years of 0.5 dWAR or better, Presley's dWAR...negative for all but one year in his career.

 

Yes, Bonifacio's OBP is .028 better but that's outweighed by Presley's .060 slugging advantage going into this season. Presley had some better tools, Bonifacio had some better tools. At the end of the day, both are a half-click over replacement level players (and neither are that different from Sam Fuld, either).

 

After a hot start, Bonifacio has OPSed at .580 over the past 28 days in 95 plate appearances. He's simply not a very good player and until Presley's weird implosion, they were basically the same guy give or take a little here and there.

 

Going into 2014, Presley was a 1.5 WAR guy in ~820 PAs, Bonifacio was a 4.0 WAR guy in ~2300 PAs.

[ashbury]

To me, all of this still boils down to "What happened with Alex Presley?" Why'd the Twins release him? Why is his OPS+ only 51 in Houston?

 

"And why no kudos to the Twins for correct talent evaluation?"

 

And, for the love of God, why Jason Bartlett?

 

Oh yeah, that'd be a reason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

"And why no kudos to the Twins for correct talent evaluation?"

 

Oh yeah, that'd be a reason.

 

Hah, exactly. If the Twins had simply gone with Mastro, I think much of the hand-wringing over centerfield would be absent.

 

This entire situation still confuses me. I'd like to know what happened with Presley and why he's performing so badly.

 

Also, why the Twins felt Bartlett was an acceptable option.

[jokin]

Yes, Bonifacio's OBP is .028 better but that's outweighed by Presley's .060 slugging advantage going into this season. Presley had some better tools, Bonifacio had some better tools. At the end of the day, both are a half-click over replacement level players.

 

After a hot start, Bonifacio has OPSed at .580 over the past 28 days in 95 plate appearances. He's simply not a very good player and until Presley's weird implosion, they were basically the same guy give or take a little here and there.

 

As I stated, Presley's SLG advantage is largely, if not totally, negated by Bonifacio's baserunning superiority- again, he's the 5th best baserunner in baseball since 2010. And again, we're not talking about making a long-term investment on either player, but having a competent bridge player that gives you flexibility and depth with a fighting chance to play above replacemennt level (Bonifacio is currently 1.2 fWAR/1.0 bWAR). Still don't see how you see he and Presley as the same guy, as Bonifacio has elite speed and can also play in the infield.....he was the guy that Gardy wanted Bartlett to be (with more speed).....and unlike Dreamvision Team Chemistry Master, Barlett, Bonifacio actually exists.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As I stated, Presley's SLG advantage is largely, if not totally, negated by Bonifacio's baserunning superiority- again, he's the 5th best baserunner in baseball since 2010. And again, we're not talking about making a long-term investment on either player, but having a competent bridge player that gives you flexibility and depth with a fighting chance to play above replacemennt level (Bonifacio is currently 1.2 fWAR/1.0 bWAR). Still don't see how you see he and Presley as the same guy, as Bonifacio has elite speed and can also play in the infield.....he was the guy that Gardy wanted Bartlett to be (with more speed).....and unlike Dreamvision Team Chemistry Master, Barlett, Bonifacio actually exists.

 

As I edited into my previous post, going into this season Bonifacio and Presley had almost an identical WAR per plate appearance over their careers and they're roughly the same age (Presley is actually younger). There was simply no reason to expect one of them to be drastically better than the other.

 

Again, going into 2014:

 

Presley was a 1.5 WAR guy in ~820 PAs, Bonifacio was a 4.0 WAR guy in ~2300 PAs.

 

They're both a smidgeon over replacement level. This isn't that hard to see. Sure, one had his stock jump after a great start (and is rapidly in decline) while the other plummeted (still want to know the reason for that) but going into 2014 they were basically the same guy, which makes signing Bonifacio in January a non-issue because they already had Presley (before something went wrong with him).

[kdrupp09]

"And why no kudos to the Twins for correct talent evaluation?"

 

Oh yeah, that'd be a reason.

 

Haha this is one of the better posts I have seen.

[cmathewson]

Wrong. Just wrong. I for one commented on it, as Sizemore was conducting workouts for teams. And you also have been proven wrong on Bonifacio, who has worked out just fine for the Cubs. Having him batting in front of Dozier, while taking the pressure off of Hicks in CF, clearly would not have cost us winnable games by playing infielders in the OF, plus enormously increasing production from Dozier and Mauer batting 2 and 3 behind Bonifacio's .335 OBP and 11 stolen bases.

 

OK, you might have been the only one clamoring for Sizemore. And the Bonifacio thing is hindisight. He's proven OK for the Cubs. Lucky them. Going into the season, he was replacement level at best. You don't give a replacement player in his 30s the starting job for a rebuilding team.

[jokin]

As I edited into my previous post, going into this season Bonifacio and Presley had almost an identical WAR per plate appearance over their careers and they're roughly the same age (Presley is actually younger). There was simply no reason to expect one of them to be drastically better than the other.

 

Again, going into 2014:

 

Presley was a 1.5 WAR guy in ~820 PAs, Bonifacio was a 4.0 WAR guy in ~2300 PAs.

 

They're both a smidgeon over replacement level. This isn't that hard to see. Sure, one had his stock jump after a great start (and is rapidly in decline) while the other plummeted (still want to know the reason for that) but going into 2014, they were basically the same guy, which makes signing Bonifacio in January a non-issue because they already had Presley (before something went wrong with him).

 

In a short-term bridge situation, and that's all this is, so age comparisons are irrelevant, I'd still always take the player who is the better defender, faster, more experienced and the more versatile guy every day of the week. Besides, you're comping the wrong 2 guys, the correct comp was between Bartlett and Bonifacio, not Presley and Bonifacio...another option for sending down should have been utiliized, if that was what it came down to..... Bartlett should never been up for discussion as an option for the major league roster to start the season.

 

And you keep coming back to Bonifacio's recent, and totally expected, regression to the mean. Let's put it in perspective, Bonifacio is "slumping" in May with a .589 OPS.....meanwhile Hicks is supposedly "surging" to life with a .592 OPS (while Bonifacio continues to post positive defensive stats while Hicks posts negative ones).

[Brock Beauchamp]

On a short-term situation, and that's all this is so age comparisons are irrelevatn, I'd still always take player who is the better defender, faster, more experienced and more versatile guy every day of the week. Besides, you're comping the wrong 2 guys, the correct comp was between Bartlett and Bonifacio, not Presley and Bonifacio...Presley had an option, if that was what it came down to, Bartlett should never been on the major league roster to start the season.

 

I don't compare Bonifacio to Bartlett because the entire situation surrounding Presley is so bloody odd. Why'd the Twins release him? Why is he performing so poorly this season?

 

But going into Spring Training, one would have to believe Presley had the advantage over Bartlett because it's so damned obvious he was the better choice.

 

Again, what happened? Why the change of heart? Why the lackluster performance so far below his career norm? And why take him off the 40 man roster and expose him?

 

And you keep coming back to Bonifacio's recent, and totally expected, regression to the mean. Let's put it in perspective, Bonifacio is "slumping" in May with a .589 OPS.....meanwhile Hicks is supposedly "surging" to life with a .592 OPS (while Bonifacio continues to post positive defensive stats while Hicks posts negative ones).

 

I keep coming back to Bonifacio's regression because you were hammering at his 120 OPS+ when he was posting it for the first month of the season. He simply isn't a very good baseball player and is regressing back to where everyone thought he'd be before the season started.

 

Sometimes, guys have good months well above and beyond anything a reasonable person would expect. I don't back-slap Theo Epstein for signing Bonifacio for the same reason you haven't heard me say a single positive thing about Terry Ryan signing Kurt Suzuki.

[cmathewson]

I don't compare Bonifacio to Bartlett because the entire situation surrounding Presley is so bloody odd. Why'd the Twins release him? Why is he performing so poorly this season?

 

But going into Spring Training, one would have to believe Presley had the advantage over Bartlett because it's so damned obvious he was the better choice.

 

Again, what happened? Why the change of heart? Why the lackluster performance so far below his career norm? And why take him off the 40 man roster and expose him?

 

 

 

I keep coming back to Bonifacio's regression because you were hammering at his 120 OPS+ when he was posting it for the first month of the season. He simply isn't a very good baseball player and is regressing back to where everyone thought he'd be before the season started.

 

Sometimes, guys have good months well above and beyond anything a reasonable person would expect. I don't back-slap Theo Epstein for signing Bonifacio for the same reason you haven't heard me say a single positive thing about Terry Ryan signing Kurt Suzuki.

 

Here's a call: On July 1, Aaron Hicks will have a higher OPS+ than Bonifacio.

[jokin]

OK, you might have been the only one clamoring for Sizemore. And the Bonifacio thing is hindisight. He's proven OK for the Cubs. Lucky them. Going into the season, he was replacement level at best. player in his 30s the You don't give a replacement starting job for a rebuilding team.

 

I still don't see how you say Bonifacio is hindsight, and he turned 29 on April 29, so he's not in his 30s. And I'm not talking about Bonifacio, 2014 numbers, just his career numbers, which were easy enough to project to be of benefit as a Plan B option for the Twins for 2014, particularly with the paucity of Leadoff options that the Twins have.

 

And you do make a "replacement" a starting job if you don't have players who are ready and equipped to man the position at a minimum level of major league competency (Hey! that's what the Cubs did!)...and the Twins have done that 2 years running now. It's pretty obvious to most everyone who follows the Twins that Hicks needs the AAA option to have a landing point to slow things down and focus on smoothing out the rough edges. The Twins have ripped that option out from under him, and have screwed the rest of the team and demoralized the pitching staff by not having a competent defensive placeholder always at the ready.

[jokin]

I don't compare Bonifacio to Bartlett because the entire situation surrounding Presley is so bloody odd. Why'd the Twins release him? Why is he performing so poorly this season?

 

But going into Spring Training, one would have to believe Presley had the advantage over Bartlett because it's so damned obvious he was the better choice.

 

Again, what happened? Why the change of heart? Why the lackluster performance so far below his career norm? And why take him off the 40 man roster and expose him?

 

 

 

I keep coming back to Bonifacio's regression because you were hammering at his 120 OPS+ when he was posting it for the first month of the season. He simply isn't a very good baseball player and is regressing back to where everyone thought he'd be before the season started.

 

Sometimes, guys have good months well above and beyond anything a reasonable person would expect. I don't back-slap Theo Epstein for signing Bonifacio for the same reason you haven't heard me say a single positive thing about Terry Ryan signing Kurt Suzuki.

 

I would back-slap both Theo and Terry for both personnel decisions, not for the great months both players had, but that both decisions made sense in strengthening their teams, adding insurance policies in an area of weakness, and possibly becoming trading chips at premium positions should their performance stimulate demand.....ALL based on their career norms, not their league-leading months-worth of over-production.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here's a call: On July 1, Aaron Hicks will have a higher OPS+ than Bonifacio.

 

It'd be nice but I wouldn't hold my breath. Hicks needs to make contact before his OPS+ will nudge into acceptable territory. On the other hand, it's also possible that Hicks "wins" because Bonifacio's OPS+ descends into unacceptable territory.

 

It should also be noted that Fuld has provided roughly the same value as Bonifacio in half the plate appearances this season.

 

One cannot predict injury insanity and massive fluctuation between an assortment of players (Fuld, Presley, Bonifacio, Mastroianni) who are all roughly replacement level guys.