The over/under on Correia

[jokin]

Like Matt Gruyere? That "quality"?

 

What's so wrong with some high-quality, finely-aged cheese?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Trevor May should be the guy. Absolutely. It might be Darnell though.

 

I have a sneaking suspicion it might be Darnell. Not that I have anything against him but it's time for the Twins to start calling up some potential difference-makers to start games. May fits that bill. Darnell, not so much.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins are 18 - 12 when Pelfry and Corriea do not get a decision. They are 1-8. If the Twins went 4-5 instead, we are in the wild card lead and only a few games behind Detroit.

 

I'm guessing most teams would see that kind of improvement if you took out the starts by their #4 and 5 pitchers.

 

Of course on the Twins these are the #2 and 4 pitchers.

[jokin]

I have a sneaking suspicion it might be Darnell. Not that I have anything against him but it's time for the Twins to start calling up some potential difference-makers to start games. May fits that bill. Darnell, not so much.

 

Based on last year's history with Gibson, the Twins will give at least one more chance to every SP on Rochester with a heartbeat before they finally turn to May, and then, Meyer.

[Physics Guy]

I had hope that Correia had figured things out after his May 3 outing. He threw 7 innings, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB. He had 3 QS out of 6 and really only had one stinker. Now he is up to a 3/8 stinker quotient. I'll be shocked if they don't at least give him two more starts. If the next two are like the last two he needs to be DFA'd. If he can keep them in games up to the Super 2 deadline, keep him until then. I'm with the majority in wanting to see May up. I would like to see Meyer in AAA to continue working on the changeup.

[stringer bell]

I have a sneaking suspicion it might be Darnell. Not that I have anything against him but it's time for the Twins to start calling up some potential difference-makers to start games. May fits that bill. Darnell, not so much.

If he is successful tonight and his next Triple A start, I believe the "answer" with be Mike Pelfrey. I don't necessarily agree with that, but since he is on the DL, it would be the easy move to make.

[jokin]

If he is successful tonight and his next Triple A start, I believe the "answer" with be Mike Pelfrey. I don't necessarily agree with that, but since he is on the DL, it would be the easy move to make.

 

Yep. Antony already has this option set on "default" position in his roster settings for pitching.

[cmathewson]

If AAA guys are laying off the pitch, there's just about a zero chance a MLB hitter will swing at the offering unless his name is Delmon Young.

 

And I'm not sure why you think it's unimportant to get a changeup over the plate. It's not a slider, where you trick the hitter into thinking it's a strike as it dives off the plate. I think it's a must to get a changeup over the plate in case the hitter doesn't swing (which in turn forces the hitter to swing at it if he fears it will get over the plate for a strike call).

 

I'm saying you can't look only at numbers. If he throws it a lot more than he normally would because he's working on it, it's not a good gauge of how effective it would be if properly used. He does have 49 Ks in 40 innings, so apparently a lot of guys are swinging and missing.

[jokin]

I'm saying you can't look only at numbers. If he throws it a lot more than he normally would because he's working on it, it's not a good gauge of how effective it would be if properly used. He does have 49 Ks in 40 innings, so apparently a lot of guys are swinging and missing.

 

The K rate has actually improved year-over-year from New Britain, but the KS% is down noticeably. His IFB rate has literally quadrupled over his rate from New Britain, while his LD% of 8.9% is down by some 40% from last season. His H/9 are down by nearly 1. Hence, the guy is basically unhittable, and maybe a bit "effectively wild", at the AAA level. The main 2 reasons his ERA number isn't better is due to his defensively-caused high BABIP-IFB (.342) and his BB rate. And we all are mostly in agreement that he's using his time now in Rochester in refining and in effect, overusing the pitches like the change-up that are not yet final products.

[Physics Guy]

Well, he probably bought himself another start after tonight.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I was kind of hoping Correia would tank last night.

 

Oh well.

[Thrylos]

I was kind of hoping Correia would tank last night.

 

Oh well.

 

With the Twins half a game behind the second Wild Card? Hoping for tanking should not be an option at this point

[sorney]

I was kind of hoping Correia would tank last night.

 

Oh well.

 

 

Agree. Not that we want the Twins to lose, just rather, growing tired of KC....it's time to start seeing some of the younger guys who may be part of the future.

[Brock Beauchamp]

With the Twins half a game behind the second Wild Card? Hoping for tanking should not be an option at this point

 

I'll sacrifice 1-2 games for a better short- and long-term pitcher to join the rotation. I think May could come up right now and post Kevin Correia-type numbers or better, which is why I'm hoping that Correia tanks.

[drivlikejehu]

Correia's start wasn't really that good when you consider how bad San Diego's offense is. Against them, a 4.5 ERA is well below average. And he allowed a crucial hit against their pitcher.

 

His biggest problem is Pelfrey. Much more money is committed to Pelfrey and the Twins want to get him back in the rotation. Who else will they replace... Deduno? Not with the way he's pitching. Gibson? Seems unlikely unless he really implodes. Correia is the only real option at the moment.

[Mike Sixel]

I'll sacrifice 1-2 games for a better short- and long-term pitcher to join the rotation. I think May could come up right now and post Kevin Correia-type numbers or better, which is why I'm hoping that Correia tanks.

 

Agreed. 100%

[Brock Beauchamp]

His biggest problem is Pelfrey. Much more money is committed to Pelfrey and the Twins want to get him back in the rotation. Who else will they replace... Deduno? Not with the way he's pitching. Gibson? Seems unlikely unless he really implodes. Correia is the only real option at the moment.

 

If Pelfrey is throwing 92-93mph, I will welcome him back to the roster. Maybe not the rotation, but the roster.

 

If the Twins call him up and he's still throwing 89-90mph, I'll flip over to women's college softball every night he pitches.

[kdrupp09]

He threw a QS last night and the Twins got the win, he just guaranteed himself another start if not another 2 unfortunately.

[Mike Frasier Law]

Hey, maybe that start suddenly created trade value for him! Right? anyone? Bueller?

[Otto von Ballpark]

His biggest problem is Pelfrey. Much more money is committed to Pelfrey and the Twins want to get him back in the rotation. Who else will they replace... Deduno? Not with the way he's pitching. Gibson? Seems unlikely unless he really implodes. Correia is the only real option at the moment.

 

It was encouraging that they dropped Pelfrey (at least temporarily) when he wasn't performing, and it would be likewise encouraging to see them drop a poor performing Correia even if it's just to give Pelfrey another chance. It would be a clear indicator of a smart SP depth chart at the MLB level.

[Guest USAFChief]

I'll sacrifice 1-2 games for a better short- and long-term pitcher to join the rotation. I think May could come up right now and post Kevin Correia-type numbers or better, which is why I'm hoping that Correia tanks.

IMO it would be better if Correia pitches well (and May pitches well). I think that gives the team options, which is always better than not having options.

 

In other words, I'd rather the Twins have the problem of both Correia and May deserving a spot than having Correia tank and depending on May.

[Brandon]

I'm guessing most teams would see that kind of improvement if you took out the starts by their #4 and 5 pitchers.

 

Of course on the Twins these are the #2 and 4 pitchers.

 

The point of that idea is to show what the reality could be if we had an average .500 pitcher in those slots. We would likely be contenders at that point. so with Deduno and one of our AAA ptchers likely Meyer, we can replace Correia and Pelfry with 2 solid potentially .500 pitchers and contend this year.

[drivlikejehu]

It was encouraging that they dropped Pelfrey (at least temporarily) when he wasn't performing, and it would be likewise encouraging to see them drop a poor performing Correia even if it's just to give Pelfrey another chance. It would be a clear indicator of a smart SP depth chart at the MLB level.

 

The Twins don't have quality depth. Their starters are dead last in xFIP and 2nd to last in ERA. What they do have is a situation where Correia and/or Pelfrey could block younger pitchers from getting an opportunity. So in that sense the notional 'depth' the Twins have is harmful.

[Otto von Ballpark]

IMO it would be better if Correia pitches well (and May pitches well). I think that gives the team options, which is always better than not having options.

 

In other words, I'd rather the Twins have the problem of both Correia and May deserving a spot than having Correia tank and depending on May.

 

I agree, obviously we'd love to see every player on the team and in the minors perform well.

 

But I see where Brock is coming from too. How do you define "well"? Correia performing "well" might mean "just well enough to get a few more starts" which could preclude us from seeing a potentially better performance from May (or at least seeing if he can take Correia's spot in 2015).

 

And it's a question of time. Correia's had a month and a half already where, overall, he has failed to perform well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins don't have quality depth. Their starters are dead last in xFIP and 2nd to last in ERA. What they do have is a situation where Correia and/or Pelfrey could block younger pitchers from getting an opportunity. So in that sense the notional 'depth' the Twins have is harmful.

 

I didn't suggest anything about depth quality. But we all agree the back of the MLB level depth chart should be Pelfrey and Correia. We already sorta know Pelf is back there from his demotion (or "injury"), and if he subs in for Correia soon, we'll know KC is/was back there too. Not real excited to see either of them take the hill, but if I know for certain they are at the back of the MLB depth chart, and there is precedent for bouncing them for bad performance, that's good news.

 

I agree it still doesn't address the bad performance threshold it would take for a AAA guy to unseat Pelf (or KC).

[Brock Beauchamp]

I agree, obviously we'd love to see every player on the team and in the minors perform well.

 

But I see where Brock is coming from too. How do you define "well"? Correia performing "well" might mean "just well enough to get a few more starts" which could preclude us from seeing a potentially better performance from May (or at least seeing if he can take Correia's spot in 2015).

 

And it's a question of time. Correia's had a month and a half already where, overall, he has failed to perform well.

 

Yep. It's opportunity cost. By inserting a pitcher "good enough to get by, pitching a quality start every second or third turn", you might be passing up a prospect who would be marginally, if not significantly, better than that in both the short- and long-term.

 

And it's not as if Kevin Correia is doing anything right now that Mike Pelfrey, Kris Johnson, or Logan Darnell couldn't do. He has been terrible this season.

[nicksaviking]

IMO it would be better if Correia pitches well (and May pitches well). I think that gives the team options, which is always better than not having options.

 

This makes sense except the Twins don't seem to consistantly make the right choice when they have options lately. In fact in the case of Bartlett/Presley, they made the wrong choice when no one though there was even a choice available to be made.

 

Of course if May and Correia are both "deserving" the vet, Correia will win 100% of the time here. Even if the rookie is more deserving.

[Physics Guy]

Thought I'd revisit this after tonight's start. Correia will most likely make it much longer than most are/were hoping for. Although it's pretty hard to complain about his last 6 starts.

 

36 IP, 41 H, 4 BB, 20 K, 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP

 

He's not going anywhere unless,

A) he puts up several straight stinkers and May forces the Twins' hands or

he continues with what he has done the last month and garners something in trade.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I'm hoping for !

[Brock Beauchamp]

It certainly looks like Correia has earned a continued look in the rotation and Deduno is now the odd man out.

 

I wish the front office would make a move. I'd take almost any move right now. So tired of watching this rotation flounder every second or third start.