Jeff Samardzija

[amjgt]

Rumblings are that he is, of course, available.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post/_/id/6107

 

The Cubs are at a crossroads: Pay Samardzija what he wants, which may be a Bailey-like deal, or trade him this summer, probably as the best available starter in the market.

 

It's not a sure thing that Samardzija is dealt, writes Jesse Rogers. From his story:

Samardzija wants to be paid like an ace -- in the neighborhood of a $100 million deal -- but the Cubs won't budge. While Hoyer indicated recently there are no trade talks currently going on with any players, that's expected to change with Samardzija as he drives up his value.

 

That Bailey-like deal is 6/105

 

If we could work that 6/105 handshake deal with Samardzija before a trade....

 

a) what would you give up?

 

what do you think it would take?

[amjgt]

For me:

 

a) Kohl Stewart and Eddie Rosario

 

More than that. Alex Meyer and Lewis Thorpe?

[drock2190]

Too expensive, let someone else have him. Its not like the Twins are an Ace away from contending. And I wouldnt dub him an Ace yet, great number #2 on good staffs.

[cmathewson]

You don't give up a future ace and a top prospect, just to pay a guy what he will make in free agency.

[amjgt]

2015:

Samardzija

Meyer

Nolasco

Hughes

Gibson

 

Let's play ball.

 

I don't care if he's an ace or a great #2, at some point of a rebuild you hit a tipping point and need to trade some of your assets for proven commodities.

 

Sometimes you'll look back and say "holy crap, I can't believe we got _____ and only had to give up _____" and some times you'll look back and say "I can't believe we gave up _____ for that piece of crap ______," but that's baseball.

[HansGruber]

Pass. The Cubs would likely want too much in return and quite frankly he is not worth it. Sure, he has good K numbers but that is offset by putting too many men on base. He seems to be a pitcher similar to Matt Garza, good but not great and certainly not worth breaking the bank in terms of dollars or prospects.

[amjgt]

You don't give up a future ace and a top prospect, just to pay a guy what he will make in free agency.

 

Not sure if you are referencing "A" or "B"

[amjgt]

I haven't seen anyone's counter-offer.

 

I know you'd all take him at some point (Maybe for you it's Berrios and A.B. Walker) , so what's that point?

[blindeke]

Pass. The Cubs would likely want too much in return and quite frankly he is not worth it. Sure, he has good K numbers but that is offset by putting too many men on base. He seems to be a pitcher similar to Matt Garza, good but not great and certainly not worth breaking the bank in terms of dollars or prospects.

 

Ahh, Matt Garza. Would that he were on the Twins.

[Guest USAFChief]

If the Twins are gonna lay out that type of cash, Id prefer they do so on a free agent and spend money only, not money and prospects.

 

Pass.

[Tibs]

For me:

 

a) Kohl Stewart and Eddie Rosario

 

More than that. Alex Meyer and Lewis Thorpe?

 

That's way too much in my opinion. He has a career ERA+ of 102 and had a 92 last year.

[Otwins]

Only a contender should consider trading or him. Looks like Masterson and Shields are heading for free agency. They may cost more money but no prospects. Pass

[twinscowboysbulls]

Only a contender should consider trading or him. Looks like Masterson and Shields are heading for free agency. They may cost more money but no prospects. Pass

 

 

I'd throw the dog a bone.

 

Rosario, Hicks, Polanco, Eades and Tonkin.

 

It would suck if Samardzja ever had any injuries though. I'd sign him to the 6 for 100 and then sign Dozier long term.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If the Twins are gonna lay out that type of cash, Id prefer they do so on a free agent and spend money only, not money and prospects.

 

Yeah. I guess Samardzija has an extra year of control beyond this one, but still, you're basically giving up top prospects for less than two seasons of the guy.

 

If he's that determined to test free agency that the Cubs have to trade him, and you still really want him, just plan to offer some extra cash when he hits the market and keep your prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

Nothing. He's better than any SP they have. But, they have zero OF, no SS, no C (apparetnly they don't think Pinto can catch), no DH.....they have two guys in AAA and one in low A that should be legit MLB SP. Normally, I'd be all over this. But not with the state of the 40 man.

[cmathewson]

Both, actually. Stewart, Meyer and Thorpe are future ace pitchers. Meyer alone is more valuable than Smarmia. And he's under team control for at least six years.

[halfchest]

I think he's going to cost too much. This could be the type of move we make in 2015 or 2016 for a similar pitcher. Right now I hold and with all our excess money hopefully we can throw enough at one of the guys scheduled to be a free agent next year that has similar top of the rotation ability without giving up prospects.

 

Twins still should not have a very expensive roster next year. Willingham, Correia, and Burton will all be off the books (15.5 million). I'm assuming Dozier will get more expensive, Plouffe may as well but nothing inhibiting. My guess is those three guys leaving can be easily replaced from within by Arcia, Meyer/May/Darnell, and one of a number of our relief prospects.

 

This leaves a lot of money to play with and again go after a starter. This also assumes we cut bait on Pelfrey in the offseason or move him to the pen. Lots of time left on that decision. Right now, Masterson, Scherzer, Shields, Lester, Ervin Santana, Liriano!, McCarthy. I know it's early and some of these guys might extend but it's looking like a much better FA class next year and the Twins have the money to spend on one of the above guys. A 2015 rotation headed by one of these guys Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer doesn't seem so bad huh?

 

So no, I don't spend the prospects on a guy at this point with what looks to be a stellar starting pitcher free agent class next year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not to mention that, for ~$105 mil (plus a 2nd round draft choice), you could have easily had TWO of Garza/Santana/Jimenez this offseason for the next ~4 years.

 

Heck, if we wait and Samardzija is traded to someone else mid-season before he hits FA, we may not even have to surrender a pick to sign him. (And correct me if I'm wrong, but I can't recall many extend-and-trades in MLB, certainly not players of Samardzija's caliber -- off the top of my head, I remember Johan and Halladay...).

[kab21]

People need to stop overrating pitching prospects. Meyer could be a future ace or he could completely flop like so many top pitching prospects do every year.

 

The other problem is that really good pitchers don't make it to FA very often so it's not as easy waiting to sign that FA starter in FA. And there are a lot of other teams that are going big in the bidding process.

 

I will pass on Samardzija though. This is the type of move that you make when you are closer as halfchest mentions.

 

It's actually not a better class next year. Especially when you have to dig as far as Liriano and McCarthy. Or a guy that people didn't think was worth giving up a 2nd rd pick for this offseason.

[halfchest]

It's actually not a better class next year. Especially when you have to dig as far as Liriano and McCarthy. Or a guy that people didn't think was worth giving up a 2nd rd pick for this offseason.

 

Ubaldo, Ervin, Garza, and Nolasco were the top guys this year. Next year the top guys at this point are Sherzer, Masterson, Shields and Lester, oh and Ervin. I guess we can argue about the lower tier guys being better or not and I don't have a strong opinion on them but there's no doubt just looking at top 4 that this years is better. If you include Tanaka I suppose they get closer but still I'll take Scherzer, Masterson, Shields, Lester, and Ervin over Tanaka, Ubaldo, Garza, Ervin, Nolasco 10 out of 10 times.

[Mike Sixel]

The key for the Twins, though, is how good is the class for guys that want no more than 4 years, and less than $60MM......having elite SP available doesn't really help them.

[halfchest]

The key for the Twins, though, is how good is the class for guys that want no more than 4 years, and less than $60MM......having elite SP available doesn't really help them.

 

I hate how right you are here. Although we keep trending towards spending a bit more so we can always hope. I kinda feel Shields might be our best bet. Due to his age I dont' think anyone gives him a 7 year deal but I could totally see him getting 20-25 over 4 years. It's a risk but I would be ok with it.

[Mike Sixel]

I hope I'm wrong about that.

[nicksaviking]

The Cubs are in the same rebuild situation the Twins are in and similarly lack starting pitching. If they don't have interest in extending Samardzija, it should probably throw up a red flag that the Twins also should not.

[kab21]

Ubaldo, Ervin, Garza, and Nolasco were the top guys this year. Next year the top guys at this point are Sherzer, Masterson, Shields and Lester, oh and Ervin. I guess we can argue about the lower tier guys being better or not and I don't have a strong opinion on them but there's no doubt just looking at top 4 that this years is better. If you include Tanaka I suppose they get closer but still I'll take Scherzer, Masterson, Shields, Lester, and Ervin over Tanaka, Ubaldo, Garza, Ervin, Nolasco 10 out of 10 times.

 

Of course you have to include Tanaka and it's gets pretty close to even if just 2 of those guys sign extensions. Every year people talk about how much talent there will be available in FA in 1-2 years and then guys sign extensions.

 

And Tanaka is the perfect example about why you can't just wait for FA. The top guys get paid and Tanaka got 175M. Scherzer is getting crazy money and I think Lester resigns. Now the Twins are down to Masterson, Shields and a guy that a significant portion of this forum didn't think was worth a 2nd rd pick. Meanwhile almost every team needs pitching and will chasing these guys also.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here's a wild idea. Instead of giving up prospects to trade for and sign a guy who wants Bailey money, go sign Homer Bailey.

[Mike Sixel]

Here's a wild idea. Instead of giving up prospects to trade for and sign a guy who wants Bailey money, go sign Homer Bailey.

 

Looking forward to the day they spend on elite* talent from outside the org.

 

*not saying Bailey is elite or not

[Brock Beauchamp]

Looking forward to the day they spend on elite* talent from outside the org.

 

*not saying Bailey is elite or not

 

My point isn't that they should sign Homer Bailey, it's that giving up elite prospects for a guy who you're going to turn around and sign for Bailey money is the kind of move that should get a general manager fired.

 

Under no circumstances is Jeff Samardzija - Kohl Stewart - $100m > Homer Bailey - $100m.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree with your point. I guess I didn't make that clear.

[halfchest]

I'm pretty sure Bailey signed an extension with the Reds . . . otherwise I would agree with the plan to go sign Bailey. As Kab21 said too, decent chance one or two of these guys get extended prior to free agency. The longer those teams wait though the better chance we see more of them hit free agency.

 

I wouldn't even advocate for going after one of them if not for the fact thatwe have the money to spare and none of our big time guys is going to get expensive anytime soon. Most of our big time guys are still in the minors. Dozier is about the only guy currently on this team that could start costing us more soon. Even he won't get crazy expensive.

 

I think most of us agree thought that it's not the right time, nor is he the right player to go after at this time.

 

Now, next year . . . David Price anyone? Let's say he stays with Tampa all year. He's awesome and only has one year left of control. Would he be attainable for Kohl Stewart + Eddie Rosario in a year? THis is assuming Stewart has a big year and Rosario comes back strong. Would the Twins even do that? It would obviously have to be like the Santana trade where he gets a huge extension as well.

 

Depending on how things shake out the rest of this year, the Twins very well could be in a position to make a huge move like that this offseason. Any other top of the rotation types that may be on the trade block soon?