Article: Riffing on the Rotation

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/2928-Riffing-on-the-Minnesota-Twins-Rotation

[TheLeviathan]

Does Pino project as the next Swarzak? That's kind of the vibe I get from his career path and most likely role to contribute.

[Willihammer]

Antony talked to Provus before the game today. He insisted Pelfrey's velocity problem was mechanical, not physical.

 

I assume a drop like that has to be physical but, maybe Parker has spotted something?

[blindeke]

I am so much more optimistic this year than last. If Nolasco can start striking people out, we might be average.

[Dantes929]

No expert but I imagine change in velocity can come from length of stride, cock of wrist, angle of arm, turn of shoulder and probably a dozen other things. I have mentioned it before but mechanics can cause my golf shots to vary greatly in length and when I am in the groove it is effortless, longer and more in control. Pelfrey appears to be on the flip side of that. I am guessing mechanical. I also think he should work it out in the minors. I like Pelfrey but it is gut check time.

[ashbury]

Does Pino project as the next Swarzak?

 

By this you mean someone the Twins will keep trying/grooming as a MLB starter over the course of several seasons before giving up and at least getting some value out of him?

[jmlease1]

I'm fairly pleased with Hughes myself. I always thought he could be a good value for the twins, especially playing at Target Field, and so far that seems to be true. I do think he's going to do something to finish off hitters a little more efficiently if he's going to take another step forward; he doesn't have missed bats right now and while the foul balls are fine, it does show a problem in finishing off a hitter. Maybe Bobby Cueller can teach him a change up? Regardless, the 3 year deal is looking like a good one right now.

 

I'm happy to see Deduno finally getting into the rotation. I wasn't a fan of the Pelfrey signing, especially since it was a multi-year deal. (In the economics of baseball, a 1 year deal will cause little damage) So far he's been beyond terrible. The DL seems to be a facing-saving maneuver for Pelfrey, who does seem like a good guy. But they just can't keep running him out there.

 

I'm really hoping that the rotation keeps on this run of quality starts so the team can get back to a reasonable bench as Arcia and Willingham get healthy. Now, if the team could only do something to fix Florimon, who has (amazingly) gotten worse at the plate...

[TheLeviathan]

By this you mean someone the Twins will keep trying/grooming as a MLB starter over the course of several seasons before giving up and at least getting some value out of him?

 

No the other way Swarzak has developed usefulness,

[kdrupp09]

When is Deduno scheduled to start?

[Brock Beauchamp]

When is Deduno scheduled to start?

 

According to the Twins site, tomorrow.

[gocgo]

I like Duduno if nothing else for the entertainment factor. He misses bats...but he may hit the mascot.

[twinsfan214]

I guess you weren't at the game on 4/9 where Hughes threw over 40 pitches in the most excruciating inning (the 1st) I've ever witnessed in person. Whatever, maybe I'm jaded but I've been burned so many times after getting my confidence in a pitcher up (see Pelfrey by the end of last season) that I would say the jury on Hughes is still most decidedly out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I guess you weren't at the game on 4/9 where Hughes threw over 40 pitches in the most excruciating inning (the 1st) I've ever witnessed in person. Whatever, maybe I'm jaded but I've been burned so many times after getting my confidence in a pitcher up (see Pelfrey by the end of last season) that I would say the jury on Hughes is still most decidedly out.

 

One bad inning offsets all the good innings he has pitched in the past five weeks?

 

The only ugly thing about Hughes' line right now is his ERA. He has been considerably better than his runs allowed thus far and his ERA has been plummeting as his luck normalizes.

[twinsnorth49]

I'm going to play this song through Deduno's entire start tomorrow......and love it.

 

[video=youtube;1D5Sa2Yq-2g]

[cmathewson]

Antony talked to Provus before the game today. He insisted Pelfrey's velocity problem was mechanical, not physical.

 

I assume a drop like that has to be physical but, maybe Parker has spotted something?

 

We can look at the spray charts and movement (or lack thereof) and see that he's not finishing his pitches. He's kind of pushing the ball toward the plate. The question is, can he finish his pitches, or is a hidden injury preventing him from doing so.

[cmathewson]

I am so much more optimistic this year than last. If Nolasco can start striking people out, we might be average.

 

I don't expect him to strike as many people out as he did in the NL. He's a junk ball pitcher. Pitchers can't hit junk.

[chuchadoro]

It can be a little frustrating to watch batters repeatedly fouling off 3-2 pitches as Hughes continuously pumps letter-high fastballs at them. Like they say, though, beggars can't be choosers.

[DJL44]

is a hidden injury preventing him from doing so.

 

This wouldn't be the first pitcher who came back too soon from TJ surgery and had a dead arm or injured his shoulder overcompensating.

[Monkeypaws]

I'm hoping the Twins will be able to avoid those lengthy losing streaks with their current rotation.

[Thrylos]

He (Deduno) was the team's best starter last season

 

How? W-L ratio and ERA?

 

fWAR: Pelfrey 2.1, Correia 1.7, Deduno 1.1

FIP: Pelfrey 3.99, Deduno 4.04

normalized WHIP (ie. WHIP * (.290/BABIP)): Correia 1.31, Pelfrey 1.33, Deduno 1.35

IP: Correia 185.3, Pelfrey 152.7, Deduno 108.

K/9: Pelfrey 5.95, Deduno 5.58

BB/9: Correia: 2.19, Pelfrey 3.12, Deduno 3.42

[drivlikejehu]

One interesting thing about Hughes that surprises me - he has a very small L/R platoon split in his career. The absence of a quality change-up led me to suppose he got hit harder by lefties, but until just now I never looked at the numbers.

 

It will be interesting to see if he can keep his walks down. Right now he's 9th out of 108 qualified pitchers in walk rate.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing Pino as a long-reliever but there's a reason he's 30 years old, has been in 4 organizations, and never seen the Majors. He's just a AAAA guy on a hot streak.

[Nick Nelson]

How? W-L ratio and ERA?

 

fWAR: Pelfrey 2.1, Correia 1.7, Deduno 1.1

FIP: Pelfrey 3.99, Deduno 4.04

normalized WHIP (ie. WHIP * (.290/BABIP)): Correia 1.31, Pelfrey 1.33, Deduno 1.35

IP: Correia 185.3, Pelfrey 152.7, Deduno 108.

K/9: Pelfrey 5.95, Deduno 5.58

BB/9: Correia: 2.19, Pelfrey 3.12, Deduno 3.42

 

So by using counting stats like innings pitched and WAR you're penalizing Deduno for not getting called up until late May. Makes sense.

 

Here's what opponents did against each of the three last year:

 

Correia: .297/.337/.462

Pelfrey: .300/.358/.431

Deduno: .259/.338/.375

[scottsilvi]

So by using counting stats like innings pitched and WAR you're penalizing Deduno for not getting called up until late May. Makes sense.

 

Here's what opponents did against each of the three last year:

 

Correia: .297/.337/.462

Pelfrey: .300/.358/.431

Deduno: .259/.338/.375

 

^^^^ Winner

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Deduno wasn't everything I wanted him to be in his first start, but he was ok.