Moves that are warranted

[jokin]

If it is true that he is a great defender at SS, those skills are rare. Defense saves runs and wins games. He turned a bad throw from Hughes into an out. It could have been runners on second and third no outs top first.

 

It is a myth that there are lots of great defensive shortstops (or catchers) in the minors. Some teams would care about losing him.

 

Perhaps we should go through the Baseball America minor league SS evaluations more comprehensively, and accept what they say as gospel. They appeared to have nailed their evaluation on P-Flo:

 

The switch-hitter is a flashy but erratic defender, wrote Baseball America prior to the season (2011). BA ranked him 29th among Orioles prospects at that point, questioning his ability to hit advanced pitching.

[tobi0040]

I'd be more impressed if all the people who saw Florimon struggling also saw Suzuki raking. At least before they develop bilateral arm breakage from patting themselves on the back.

 

Kurt has had 77 plate appearances. That is 15 games at 5 at bats a game. If he is still raking in July, we were all wrong. To quote Denny Green, Pedro is what we thought he was.

[jokin]

I'd be more impressed if all the people who saw Florimon struggling also saw Suzuki raking. At least before they develop bilateral arm breakage from patting themselves on the back.

 

Certain things are more predictable than others, and that comes with taking much less stock in small bits of data. What Florimon is doing at the plate has been solidly baked into the cake over a 9 year career in the minors. We all love what Suzuki is currently doing for the Twins, heck I've always liked the guy- just NOT for his hitting prowess. His current streak of plate expertise is a nice bonus, but his career stats suggest he'll eventually return to those levels. (Gardy let it slip in his post-game presser yesterday when asked about Suzuki's hitting, saying he's a nice veteran guy to have around for a year. He could very well be gone in July).

[Craig Arko]

Kurt has had 77 plate appearances. That is 15 games at 5 at bats a game. If he is still raking in July, we were all wrong. To quote Denny Green, Pedro is what we thought he was.

 

Yup. Small samples are only useful when confirming bias, but not so much when contradicting it.

 

I was a Math major.

[Boom Boom]

I'd be more impressed if all the people who saw Florimon struggling also saw Suzuki raking. At least before they develop bilateral arm breakage from patting themselves on the back.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd be more impressed if all the people who saw Florimon struggling also saw Suzuki raking. At least before they develop bilateral arm breakage from patting themselves on the back.

 

There was no reason to expect this kind of production from Suzuki. A pleasant surprise, for sure.

 

On the other hand, there was no reason to expect decent production from Florimon outside of miscast hope. The guy wasn't good in the minors. Last year, he became progressively worse at the plate. He's 27 years old.

[Craig Arko]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]7343[/ATTACH]

 

 

Exactly. Easy predictions are easy. Impressive predictions are not.

 

Probably neither merits bilateral arm breakage, though.

[tobi0040]

Exactly. Easy predictions are easy. Impressive predictions are not.QUOTE]

 

Too bad the Pedro prediction was not easy enough for the Twins to predict it and actually bring in a short stop this offseason.

[Craig Arko]

Exactly. Easy predictions are easy. Impressive predictions are not.QUOTE]

 

Too bad the Pedro prediction was not easy enough for the Twins to predict it and actually bring in a short stop this offseason.

 

Yes, because had that happened they'd likely be in second place in the division.

[Siehbiscuit]

IMO, the front office is still valuing tools too much once a player matures. Florimon and even Hicks have great LOOKING tools, but when it comes to actual production, they both fall miserably short. If, big if, Florimon or Hicks could hit .270 at the plate all of us would be happy to eat crow. The problem is Florimon CAN'T do that. He may look smooth in the field and take good BP, but the guy cant make contact. Hicks at least has youth on his side, FLorimon is supposedly in his prime. Yikes.

[Craig Arko]

Yeah, Hicks still has a chance for the light to come on, although his window is shrinking.

 

What's the current thinking about Arcia? Back up right away when the rehab assignment completes or more time in AAA? I really have no idea.

[tobi0040]

IMO, the front office is still valuing tools too much once a player matures. Florimon and even Hicks have great LOOKING tools, but when it comes to actual production, they both fall miserably short. If, big if, Florimon or Hicks could hit .270 at the plate all of us would be happy to eat crow. The problem is Florimon CAN'T do that. He may look smooth in the field and take good BP, but the guy cant make contact. Hicks at least has youth on his side, FLorimon is supposedly in his prime. Yikes.

 

I think Hicks and Pedro are apples and oranges. Hicks is 24, was a top prospect, and has only 350 at bats up here. Pedro is 27, was never highly touted, was left unprotected, and has 610 at bats up here. As bad as Hicks has been, his OPS is 20 basis points better and his walk rate is encouraging and his BABIP has been very low.

 

That does not mean that Hicks could not benefit from going down, but with him I think it is between the ears. Pedro just doesn't have it. He is like Ponder. He just isn't good. He tries hard, he puts in the effort. But the skills are not there.

[Beezer07]

Yeah, Hicks still has a chance for the light to come on, although his window is shrinking.

 

What's the current thinking about Arcia? Back up right away when the rehab assignment completes or more time in AAA? I really have no idea.

 

I agree his window is "shrinking" in the sense that everyone's window is shrinking as they get closer to death. But as tobi pointed out, Hicks hasn't even gotten a full season at the Major League level. Have we gotten so impatient that a prospect must be above-average within 5 months of arrival? If that were the standard, I would imagine that boatloads of current MLBers would never have gotten the chance to excel.

[Mike Sixel]

Who here asked for above average within 5 months? No one.

[twinsnorth49]

I don't see too much bi-lateral arm breakage over predicting Florimon's abysmal failure to be a competent hitter, just people stating what should have been glaringly obvious, especially to professional baseball people who's stated goal it was to improve. Suzuki has been a pleasant surprise, but he has been a surprise and his success is much more likely to be a result of SSS than P-Flo's.

[SirLoin]

I don't think we'll have to worry about the roster spot for Parmelee. Isn't Mauer going to go on the 60-day DL soon with those back spasms? Or will they rest him until July and then put him on the DL? Then they might have to put Florimon on waivers.

[jokin]

 

Yes, because had that happened they'd likely be in second place in the division.

 

Or, if they had acknowledged the predictable deficiency and upgraded the position, they might be in first place.

[tobi0040]

Or, if they had acknowledged the predictable deficiency and upgraded the position, they might be in first place.

 

If I am paying $150 for my family of four to park, go to the game, and have a snack, don't I deserve to watch major league players?

[lightfoot789]

I'm more concerned with Minor League roster moves.

*What is the organizational plan for outfielders (8) in Fort Myers with so many guys coming off the DL and all targeted for the Miracle?

Lance Ray (playing soon but where?)

Nate Roberts (playing soon but where?)

Byron Buxton (just activated with Miracle)

JD Williams (activated to Cedar Rapids but you have to assume he is headed to Ft. Myers soon)

Travis Harrison (appears to be set to play LF all season and doing it well)

Max Kepler (Should be back in OF when Dalton Hicks (1B) comes off DL)

Adam Brett Walker (Has played all but 1 game in RF this season)

Jonathan Murphy (argueably the second best defender of group)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

According to TD's resident roster and payroll expert, Florimon has used just 2 option years, 2010 and 11.

 

I'm going to look closer at this. Off the top of my mind, I believe the Florimon was claimed off waivers and then outrighted, so that's why he spent 2012 and the minors and not on an optional assignment. If he was on the 40-man the whole time, then 2012 would have been his 3rd option year.

 

---

Checked it out...

 

12/5/11 Claimed off waivers

12/12/11 Outrighted

8/15/12 Contracted purchased.

 

No option year. Has been up with Twins since. So he has one option left.

[Mike Sixel]

If I am paying $150 for my family of four to park, go to the game, and have a snack, don't I deserve to watch major league players?

 

You should probably ask a twins exec that question.

 

As should the fans in Rochester and NB.....don't they deserve AAA and AA OF?

[tobi0040]

I'm more concerned with Minor League roster moves.

*What is the organizational plan for outfielders (8) in Fort Myers with so many guys coming off the DL and all targeted for the Miracle?

Lance Ray (playing soon but where?)

Nate Roberts (playing soon but where?)

Byron Buxton (just activated with Miracle)

JD Williams (activated to Cedar Rapids but you have to assume he is headed to Ft. Myers soon)

Travis Harrison (appears to be set to play LF all season and doing it well)

Max Kepler (Should be back in OF when Dalton Hicks (1B) comes off DL)

Adam Brett Walker (Has played all but 1 game in RF this season)

Jonathan Murphy (argueably the second best defender of group)

 

Buxton is there for a quick tune up. But point taken.

[DJL44]

I think Hicks and Pedro are apples and oranges. Hicks is 24, was a top prospect, and has only 350 at bats up here. Pedro is 27, was never highly touted, was left unprotected, and has 610 at bats up here. As bad as Hicks has been, his OPS is 20 basis points better and his walk rate is encouraging and his BABIP has been very low.

 

I agree. Hicks has had a performance at the low-end of "tolerable" but he usually starts slow and there is reason to expect improvement. Florimon has a negative OPS+. There is also a reasonable replacement for Florimon on the 25 man roster. There isn't a replacement for Hicks who is above A-ball.

[nicksaviking]

There isn't a replacement for Hicks who is above A-ball.

 

I'm sure there will be another AAAA CF hit waivers again soon.

 

Of course the way things are going, the Twins would likely put themselves in the position that they'd have to DFA Fuld to get him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm sure there will be another AAAA CF hit waivers again soon.

 

Of course the way things are going, the Twins would likely put themselves in the position that they'd have to DFA Fuld to get him.

 

Priceless.

[Riverbrian]

In consideration of fairness.

 

If you look at Pedro's career numbers the past two years.

2012 BA .219 OPS .579

2013 BA .221 OPS .611

 

Now 2014 BA .113 OPS .352

 

His bat is struggling at a new level. It doesn't compare with what he did before. This ain't the same ball player.

 

He's not a good hitter... But he's not been this bad.

 

This isn't a "See I told you so moment"... If he was hitting .210... It would be a "See I told you so moment.

 

On the other side of the coin... I've been a big proponent of Bonofacio... I'm not going to look at his 2014... BA .321 and OPS .761 and say "See I told you So".

 

I wanted Bonofacio for the player he was... It wasn't because I thought he'd do what he's done this April and I supported Florimon for the player he was.

 

This ain't that Florimon. He's messed up and I don't think we should play him until he un-messes.

[Mike Sixel]

My eyes hurt seeing those numbers all together like that. I can't believe think his defense covers up for that.

[Riverbrian]

My eyes hurt seeing those numbers all together like that. I can't believe think his defense covers up for that.

 

I do think his defense covers for SOME of his lack of hitting when his lack of hitting is at least over .200... I'm not signing him to 5 year 100 million deal but there is value in his D.

 

It doesn't cover for what he is doing right now and he will be packing his fabulous glove and rocket arm into a suitcase and going back home to the Dominican Republic if he doesn't start going with the pitch.

 

He's messed up.

[Brock Beauchamp]

In consideration of fairness.

 

If you look at Pedro's career numbers the past two years.

2012 BA .219 OPS .579

2013 BA .221 OPS .611

 

Now 2014 BA .113 OPS .352

 

His bat is struggling at a new level. It doesn't compare with what he did before. This ain't the same ball player.

 

He's not a good hitter... But he's not been this bad.

 

This isn't a "See I told you so moment"... If he was hitting .210... It would be a "See I told you so moment.

 

The thing is about fringe hitters like Florimon is that when they collapse, they often don't drop to a .550 OPS; they have a tendency to utterly and completely collapse. Bill James wrote a fantastic article about aging and how fringe players often drop out of baseball entirely in their late 20s because they're fringe players who can't compensate for loss of skill or league adjustment. There's a good chance Pedro Florimon falls into that category of player.

 

If you asked me "What's more likely: Florimon OPSing at .400 or .650 in May?", there's a good chance I would have replied ".400". The writing was on the wall that this guy had a good chance of imploding violently and spectacularly at any moment. He is old-ish. For a speed guy he misses the ball far too often, negating his ability to leg out a hit. He puts the ball in the air too often. He has no discipline. He relied on a decent early 2013 before fading pretty badly in the second half, indicating that he's not adjusting to opposing pitchers. Too much of his OPS is powered by homers, a fickle thing to rely on from a marginal power guy playing in Target Field.

 

Pedro Florimon might be able to turn it around. There's always a chance of that happening. My point all along is that the chance of that happening and his ceiling prevent any rational team from wasting the time to find out.

[Winston Smith]

Stupid comment of the day, getting it out of the way early, is it worth trying Dozier back at SS for a week or two? Nunez would likely be acceptable at 2B at least more so than SS and Dozier is now settled in at "the major league level" and maybe could handle SS this time. If it works and with Rosario maybe ready by late in the year the middle would look kind of good.