Article: Looking Ahead to Find a Shortstop

[nicksaviking]

This is demonstrably false.

OPS + in Fenway: 109

OPS+ in Arizona from 2006 to 2010 (when he was full healthy): 109

 

Drew slash from 2006-2010: .272/.332/.448/.780

 

Where are the road numbers for Drew the last several years. Or even 2013 if you want to go with the 'recovered' defense?

 

I don't care what he did as a 25 year old in AZ. I care that he couldn't get on base away from Fenway last year. I care that he can no longer hit lefties and has seen his strikeout rate sky rocket. He's done. If not this year, he will be next year.

 

And he's probably done this year. Position players who take three months off for non-injury reasons don't have a great track record of success.

[Trevor0333]

Florimon defense while very good has always been a little over rated in my mind. Certainly not good enough to live with a sub .300 OPS. I have little faith in Santana being anything more than a backup/AAAA injury filler. Nunez, eh I don't know, capable super utility/25 man guy. That's it. Escobar I think has a chance to be a little better with the bat and good enough defensively to at least be close to a league average SS. Polanco is likely the best chance the team has in house prospect wise to turn into a capable 2 way SS. Even if that does come true, its 2-3 years away easily.

 

Thing to remember, the Yankees will be in the market for a SS next year.

 

Drew: Im not as high on as others but he's still a massive upgrade, I wouldn't offer over 3/21 & at this point wait till the comp pick is not owed.

Lowrie: Will command more than what I trust his bat will continue to produce.

Hanley: Will be re-signed

Hardy: I wouldn't commit what he'll command with his injury history & age.

Asdrubel Cabrera: I'd be somewhat interested in, without putting up the same numbers as Lowrie or Drew. Maybe he could be had on a 2 year deal at a respectable # for a FA market deal.

 

With coming wave of very high level prospects joining the young core of Arcia, Hicks, Dozier, Pinto, & Gibson make a deal for a young up & coming SS to join the nucleus.

 

Didi Gregorious is known to be available, although Im sure the asking price is quite high. Their bullpen has been a complete & utter disaster,while I don't think the FO could pull off a Reverse Bill Smith trade. However if you offered up Burton &or Duensing with Ryan Pressly to cure their bullpen woes as the gravy in a package with Jorge Polanco & Stephen Gonsalves. Maybe they bite.

[jokin]

Where are the road numbers for Drew the last several years. Or even 2013 if you want to go with the 'recovered' defense?

 

I don't care what he did as a 25 year old in AZ.

 

Except you obviously did when you inferred that somehow he's not a quality player and that:

 

" that he couldn't hit anywhere but Fenway park..."

 

Drew's OPS+ on the road in 2013 was 94, still well-above SS averages. And the 109 overall OPS+ does throw out the Fenway factor in its measurement.

 

Drew's UZR/150 ranked him 7th overall in SS defense, while his UZR ranked him 9th overall in SS defense in 2013.

[nicksaviking]

Except you obviously did when you inferred that somehow he's not a quality player and that:

 

How so? Did I really need to clarify that he couldn't hit anywhere but Fenway Park last year?

 

I thought that was obvious. Players get old and decline fast. Perhaps none more so than middle infielders. The signs are all there.

[jokin]

Dozier to shortstop and Santana or Polanco to 2nd base. Problem solved.

 

It's a big if whether or not Dozier can hack it at SS. It's probably worth revisiting to see if it might work, but it's rare for someone to fail at the position so completely as Dozier did in 2012 and suddenly succeed later on down the road.

[jokin]

How so? Did I really need to clarify that he couldn't hit anywhere but Fenway Park last year?

 

I thought that was obvious. Players get old and decline fast. Perhaps none more so than middle infielders. The signs are all there.

 

Sorry, but it is the internet, and those of us who are a little slow on the uptake can't read your mind, to me it appeared to be a blanket statement. And I'm sure if I looked, I could find other parks where he had strong numbers, as well- and OPS+ smooths out some of the uncertainty about parks like Fenway or Coors.

 

 

And I would disagree with your assertion about the signs "all being there." Yes, he struggled against LHP- it could be a sign of rust, or it could be that he's declining on one side of the plate. But the other side of the plate had a huge year, so that "sign" really isn't all there, is it? And his defense was more than just fine, comfortably in the top third of baseball. And is anyone talking about Drew for anything more than 1.5 years? Pretty little risk to get a huge upgrade and major league-level (at worst) placeholder until the Twins find their long-term solution.

[cmathewson]

Two of the article's suggestions (Lowrie and Cabrera) both scored very poorly in defense last year (and early this year), according to B-Ref. Cabrera -1.6 wins, and Lowrie -2.1. Between their bats and the positional adjustment, they were still both roughly average players, but could be suspect long-term solutions at short.

 

I have to imagine Hanley Ramirez will get a big payday somewhere -- he's been phenomenal in LA, and even his defense has graded out better there. If he doesn't re-sign with LA, the Yankees will be looking for a shortstop too, right?

 

Hardy is, of course, the one that got away, and has the best rep with the glove. His early season hitting and injuries are a little worrisome (not least because he's on my fantasy team!). In addition to any odd feeling that may exist from his earlier stint and departure here, Target Field may have been a contributor in sapping his power in 2010, which is generally his chief offensive weapon.

 

I still think Dozier deserves another crack at it. His defensive numbers weren't that bad at SS in 2012, and he looks a lot more comfortable in the bigs now. Probably not worth it until we get an interesting option to play 2B in his place -- maybe Rosario? Would have liked adding one of those Cubans.

 

I don't think you mess with Dozier. I think he's found a home and you don't fix what ain't broke. Santana is the logical choice. But do we really want to trust the position to a rookie now that we're close to contending? I think they'll wait 'till midyear and call him up to see what we have. If he plays like Pinto, you've got something. If he plays like Hicks, maybe you start working on trade targets.

[Mike Sixel]

Better to "trust" Floriman, knowing he is costing you runs, or try something else, CMAT?

 

BTW, I think the answer is to trade for a prospect. They've shown they won't sign Cubans, they haven't drafted a good SS since before I was born*, and the likelihood of there being a good FA SS is low.

 

*that was an exaggeration, people

[troyhobbs]

Drew UZR/OPS numbers by year:

 

2007 -12.4/.683

2008 -15.9/.836

2009 2.6/.748

2010 8.9/.810

2011 4.3/.713

2012 -7.0/.657

2013 5.3/.777

 

I look for major regression in 2015 at age 32. Pass.

 

Cabrera UZR/OPS by year:

2008 -2.0/.713

2009 -5.0/.799

2010 -5.5/.637

2011 -11.0/.792

2012 -7.7/.762

2013 -12.8/.700

 

He's already regressing, and his defense is well below average. Pass.

 

JJ Hardy UZR/OPS by year

2007 12.8/.786

2008 6.4/.821

2009 6.8/.659

2010 7.4/.714

2011 8.8/.801

2012 12.4/.671

2013 6.0/.738

 

We missed out on his best years. We could have signed him to a long-term deal. He said he wanted it. Sigh. Now I just see regression in his future. Pass

 

The Twins better hope Santana develops, or they can acquire a good shortstop. Because the FA market is looking thin.

 

I think everyone hopes Santana develops, but hoping is not a strategy. I'd take any one of these guys in a short term deal until you have something better. I'm still a big Santana fan though, hopefully he gets a shot soon and does well. 1st step is for the Twins to stop pretending Florimon is their guy.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

This mirrors my feelings about the Twins shortstop situation almost perfectly. If they're going to spend to upgrade, I'd much rather they be looking ahead at a broader range of options beyond Drew.

 

Re: Hanley Ramirez and a qualifying offer - this might be a marquee enough player and a big enough deal that giving up a draft pick won't stand in the Twins' way. I think it becomes a much more imaginable option if they end up finishing in the bottom 10 and have a protected first-round pick.

 

Re: Lowrie vs. Drew - I get the sense that Drew has been perceived as more of an impact player than Lowrie, even if they're not really all that different, and that Lowrie's price tag might reflect that. Am I off base there?

[Brandon]

Next offseason we should go after Drew, Lawrie and then Cabrera in that order. I am open to trades or other ideas as well. At this point, I would prefer to see Bernier up and platooning with Escobar.

 

I did think that Florimon was able to hit in the .625 -.660 OPS range with 10 HR and 15 stolen bases. not great but enough, especially with the way the rest of our offense has come together. Not trying to get off topic but, I wonder who the biggest offensive surpise is this year? Suzuki, Colabello, Kubel, or Pinto, or even Dozier.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I wonder who the biggest offensive surpise is this year? Suzuki, Colabello, Kubel, or Pinto, or even Dozier.

 

It would have to be Pinto because he's the most likely to continue hitting at an above-average level if you exclude Dozier.

 

And I'm excluding Dozier because I expected him to have acceptable offensive production. To me, the only surprise is that he has continued to hit for this much power.

[tobi0040]

Next offseason we should go after Drew, Lawrie and then Cabrera in that order. I am open to trades or other ideas as well. At this point, I would prefer to see Bernier up and platooning with Escobar.

 

I really like the platoon idea. Escobar has a career .704 OPS against lefties. I am guessing we have someone in our system or we can sign one cheap that has a reasonable OPS against righties.

 

Obviously, you want to actually solve the problem by getting someone good. But I have my doubts. This would be a good plan B but I am sure this is too innovative for the Twins. Gardy probably has some unwritten rule/random thought on my it is a better idea to have one single guy with a .400 OPS.

[Willihammer]

I still think Dozier deserves another crack at it. His defensive numbers weren't that bad at SS in 2012, and he looks a lot more comfortable in the bigs now. Probably not worth it until we get an interesting option to play 2B in his place -- maybe Rosario? Would have liked adding one of those Cubans.

They could move Dozier to SS but the most appealing 2B to hit free agency next offseason will be (drum roll)... Emilio Bonifacio.

 

So yeah... anymore Cubans coming down the pipeline?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Didi Gregorious is known to be available, although Im sure the asking price is quite high. Their bullpen has been a complete & utter disaster,while I don't think the FO could pull off a Reverse Bill Smith trade. However if you offered up Burton &or Duensing with Ryan Pressly to cure their bullpen woes as the gravy in a package with Jorge Polanco & Stephen Gonsalves. Maybe they bite.

 

Um, no. That won't happen, but I like the Duensing addition.

[Dantes929]

"Santana is the logical choice. But do we really want to trust the position to a rookie now that we're close to contending? " Are we that close? Happy if we are but a game over .500 over an eight of a season isn't really that convincing. For shortstop I had suggested a trade with Sano back when he was a top 5 prospect and there were 2 or 3 shortstops in the top 6. I would have been happier with a great major league ready upside elite shortstop and take my chances with Plouffe or other at 3rd than Sano at 3rd and Florimon at short. That is out the window and unfortunately Rosario would be selling low at this point and I think Buxton would require more than a top 6 shortstop in trade. Stewart for a closer to ready good upside shortstop prospect?

[kdrupp09]

I think it is premature to discuss potentially trading any of our top prospects, especially Sano, Buxton, or Stewart. To discuss trading any of these, you would have to get huge packages back from the other team plus be willing to risk the ire of the fan base who have been told for the last 2+ years that these names are the future. Quite simply, you do not trade your future for the potential to contend this year.

[Trevor0333]

Um, no. That won't happen, but I like the Duensing addition.

 

What, Polanco, Gonsalves, & Pressly not enough?

[Mike Sixel]

I think it is premature to discuss potentially trading any of our top prospects, especially Sano, Buxton, or Stewart. To discuss trading any of these, you would have to get huge packages back from the other team plus be willing to risk the ire of the fan base who have been told for the last 2+ years that these names are the future. Quite simply, you do not trade your future for the potential to contend this year.

 

Who said trade for a guy that only helps for this year? I don't think anyone is proposing that.

[DJL44]

Need a placeholder? Why not try Escobar full-time and bring up Doug Bernier to be the utility guy? Bernier won't be great but he's seeing the ball well right now.

[TheLeviathan]

I honestly don't see much of any of this being feasible or particularly attractive as solutions. In my eyes, moving Dozier remains the best bet for this team.

[terencemann]

I honestly don't see much of any of this being feasible or particularly attractive as solutions. In my eyes, moving Dozier remains the best bet for this team.

 

I don't know what Dozier would bring back unless he continues to do what he's doing for a couple months but I think trying to sell high on some players is the best bet if the Twins really do want to build a team around guys like Sano/Buxton/Meyer. They still have a lot of holes to fill and it wont' all come from the minors and I don't think they have the resources to plug every hole from free agency. I'd like to see the Twins continue to stuff their minor leagues with as much pitching as possible.

[TheLeviathan]

Sorry meant move to SS.

[terencemann]

Sorry meant move to SS.

 

Ooops. My bad. In any case, my argument is still that I want to see them continue to drag pitching into the system.

[Nick Nelson]

Drew is "on the wrong side of 30" now, but Lowrie, who will be almost the exact same age next off-season as Drew is now, will be a viable FA target?

 

My point was this: Here's a guy whose K-rate has been consistently on the rise, all the way up to 25 percent last year. And I don't really expect that to turn around as he ages into his mid-30s.

 

His age, on its own, isn't all that noteworthy. Most free agents are 30+.

[kdrupp09]

Who said trade for a guy that only helps for this year? I don't think anyone is proposing that.

 

I wasn't meaning to imply that it would only be for a guy for this year, however to even consider trading any one of arguably the top 3 or 4 top prospects to grace the Twins system in the past decade is premature. Also, to even consider it you are going to have to look for a SS prospect of equal value. Are there any in the minors, Correa maybe?

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think anyone said trade Sano or Buxton. Now, if you sign shields, and you have Meyer and May and Berrios.....would you not trade Stewart for a proven SS and another player? What about Boggaerts and another player? I don't know. A bird in the hand.....I'd think about it, but ONLY if I was willing to buy a top SP in FA.

[Guest USAFChief]

My point was this: Here's a guy whose K-rate has been consistently on the rise, all the way up to 25 percent last year. And I don't really expect that to turn around as he ages into his mid-30s.His age, on its own, isn't all that noteworthy. Most free agents are 30+.

fair enough, I misunderstood.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I honestly don't see much of any of this being feasible or particularly attractive as solutions. In my eyes, moving Dozier remains the best bet for this team.

 

I think a move back to short becomes a real option if he continues to hit. We can deal with subpar fielding if the guy is OPSing at .800 or even .750.

 

Not that Dozier is necessarily a subpar shortstop but it'll probably take some time to get him back up to speed at the position.

 

With that said, I don't want to see Dozier moved this year. He deserves the chance to get his feet under him and cement himself as a productive hitter before the team messes with his head at all.

[Guest USAFChief]

Chief's opinion: In the minds of Twins management (both front office and dugout) Dozier is not a SS, and won't be moved back under except possibly to finish out a game in extreme circumstances.