Alex Meyer Rerun or just showing More Consistency

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd be surprised if he didn't receive 10 starts this season. Last year, Gibson received 10 MLB starts and didn't have nearly the success in Rochester that Meyer is having this season.

[LimestoneBaggy]

I really don't see the issues with leaving him in the minors based upon the information available. We know he's had health issues and is working on a new pitch. He was likely left in the minors to demonstrate he was healthy and could meet the challenge of AAA.

 

I think he's certainly shown enough for most to agree he's ready for the majors (understanding his arsenal of "stuff"/talent). Since he's refining a pitch (I have no idea where he's at with that or any other pitch), I'm assuming he's building a level of confidence in the same, and I believe in the validity that confidence in "stuff" changes good to devastating.

 

I'm sure that the Twins know what they have in Meyer, and are looking at maximizing the asset based upon years, salaries, roster building, and maybe what kind of bobblehead/Perkins-included commercials they could make (and a myriad of other factors).

 

To me, they made a valid decision based upon the factors, and it makes sense to hold off a bit, let him dominate and get really hungry....he'll get his taste if he keeps going.

 

I put zero credence in anything a GM (assistant or otherwise) says is the reason for a decision, in contrast to what they have relied upon in making a decision (think Spring Training stats).

[jokin]

I'd be surprised if he didn't receive 10 starts this season. Last year, Gibson received 10 MLB starts and didn't have nearly the success in Rochester that Meyer is having this season.

 

I was holding out hope for seeing Meyer hit the ZiPS projections of 21 starts and 101 innings, especially now that we know the innings limitation has been more strictly defined to be in the 150-160 range. At this point, and partly based on the Antony comments and the kid glove treatment, I think we'll be lucky to see him get 10 starts/60 innings, seems unlikely unless lots of things go right, and wrong.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I was holding out hope for seeing Meyer hit the ZiPS projections of 21 starts and 101 innings, especially now that we know the innings limitation has been more strictly defined to be in the 150-160 range. At this point, and partly based on the Antony comments and the kid glove treatment, I think we'll be lucky to see him get 10 starts/60 innings, seems unlikely unless lots of things go right, and wrong.

 

To be fair, Trevor May has a say in this as well... And it's hard to fault the Twins for potentially going with the guy who is already on the 40 man as opposed to the guy who is not on the 40 man and is currently refining a new pitch.

 

Man, it's hard not to be impressed with Trevor May this season.

[jokin]

To be fair, Trevor May has a say in this as well... And it's hard to fault the Twins for potentially going with the guy who is already on the 40 man as opposed to the guy who is not on the 40 man and is currently refining a new pitch.

 

Man, it's hard not to be impressed with Trevor May this season.

 

I am greatly encouraged with May as well, his peripheral improvements jump off the page. But his path to major league prominence as a starting pitcher isn't nearly as certain as Meyer's is. And May's developmental progression has been like clockwork- to take 2 years per level to ultimately master (or at least make himself promotable from) that level- which gives me pause that he will end up proving to be effective at the Major League level in 2014.

[Mr. Brooks]

I can listen to both sides of the argument and find valid points, and can probably be swayed either way.

However, can we please stop this "rushing him up here" nonsense?

He is 24 years old. Whenever he does get up here, he will not have been rushed.

He is a top prospect, he's not Trevor Plouffe or Brian Dozier or Josmil Pinto, or even Oswaldo Arcia.

He is a legit, front line prospect, who would be the #1 prospect in many farm systems in baseball. Those kind of prospects are usually up at a pretty young age.

[jokin]

I can listen to both sides of the argument and find valid points, and can probably be swayed either way.

However, can we please stop this "rushing him up here" nonsense?

He is 24 years old. Whenever he does get up here, he will not have been rushed.

He is a top prospect, he's not Trevor Plouffe or Brian Dozier or Josmil Pinto, or even Oswaldo Arcia.

He is a legit, front line prospect, who would be the #1 prospect in many farm systems in baseball. Those kind of prospects are usually up at a pretty young age.

 

Exactly right. Well-stated.

 

I don't get the gentle flower/china doll/babe in the forest syndrome. The only argument that holds sway in holding him back is his 6'9" stature and the inconsistent mechanics that come from it- possibly leading to potential inconsistencies and health concerns. The Twins were right to shut Meyer down last year- but all reports indicate that it was only a minor shoulder irritation- and Meyer hit the ground running once he returned and he has never looked back, continuing his upward developmental trajectory arc this spring. He apparently was struggling with his delivery of the circle change- again, possibly because of his height, and quickly developed an alternate effective 3rd pitch...........This is the kind of adjustment that a major league-level pitcher makes.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Exactly right. Well-stated.

 

I don't get the gentle flower/china doll/babe in the forest syndrome. The only argument that holds sway in holding him back is his 6'9" stature and the inconsistent mechanics that come from it- possibly leading to potential inconsistencies and health concerns. The Twins were right to shut Meyer down last year- but all reports indicate that it was only a minor shoulder irritation- and Meyer hit the ground running once he returned and he has never looked back, continuing his upward developmental trajectory arc this spring. He apparently was struggling with his delivery of the circle change- again, possibly because of his height, and quickly developed an alternate effective 3rd pitch...........This is the kind of adjustment that a major league-level pitcher makes.

 

I don't think anyone is questioning that Meyer is a future MLB player. He has the stuff.

 

At this point, we agree that Meyer would not be "rushed" if he was called up today. On the other hand, with him now developing a new pitch that still looks a bit inconsistent based on his last outing, I don't think it's a bad idea to let him refine that pitching to AAA hitters.

 

But if he strings together 3-4 good starts, he should absolutely get the nod, provided that the Twins rotation has the space (and I think we can all agree that for Meyer, they should make the space).

[jokin]

I don't think anyone is questioning that Meyer is a future MLB player. He has the stuff.

 

At this point, we agree that Meyer would not be "rushed" if he was called up today. On the other hand, with him now developing a new pitch that still looks a bit inconsistent based on his last outing, I don't think it's a bad idea to let him refine that pitching to AAA hitters.

 

But if he strings together 3-4 good starts, he should absolutely get the nod, provided that the Twins rotation has the space (and I think we can all agree that for Meyer, they should make the space).

 

It was Antony that talked about the "intensity" contrast in Rochester vs. Minnesota. That invites all of the sympathetic responses- folks are simply used to the slow-play from the Twins and assume that that's how it's done most everywhere else- which is just not the case.

 

Having said that, I fully agree with your points- my admonitions are around the idea that the Twins promote him sooner rather than later- not "Yesterday!" I remain hopeful that Antony's comments are not indicative of a 2015 debut. He's going to have used up close to half of his allotted innings by June 1. That won't leave many starting opportunities with the Twins- in which case, I'm fine with Gardy's ST suggestion of bringing up Meyer to throw out of the pen- not a bad way to get your feet wet in the majors.

[Mike Sixel]

What if May and Meyer are both ready.....and better than 2 or 3 of the Twins current starters? What would you do (not what would the Twins do, what would you do)? Do you hold them down to keep depth? Do you promote them to try to reward people that pay for tickets and show the team that it isn't "about a future that never comes*"?

 

*used courtesy of Mr. Hunter....

[Brock Beauchamp]

What if May and Meyer are both ready.....and better than 2 or 3 of the Twins current starters? What would you do (not what would the Twins do, what would you do)? Do you hold them down to keep depth? Do you promote them to try to reward people that pay for tickets and show the team that it isn't "about a future that never comes*"?

 

It really depends on who is pitching well on the Twins roster. Hughes and Nolasco will not and should not lose their spot. Too much talent and/or history of competence there to bail on them in 2014.

 

If it's Deduno and/or Correia, you make that replacement. Gibson... Eh, hard to say. It really depends on how he looks, not so much his stat line.

[kdrupp09]

What if May and Meyer are both ready.....and better than 2 or 3 of the Twins current starters? What would you do (not what would the Twins do, what would you do)? Do you hold them down to keep depth? Do you promote them to try to reward people that pay for tickets and show the team that it isn't "about a future that never comes*"?

 

*used courtesy of Mr. Hunter....

 

This is hopefully a problem that the Twins will have to decide how to handle. I think that clearly the Twins are going to stick with Nolasco, Hughes, and Gibson, so clearly there is 3 of the 5 slots already occupied. Of course that leaves Correia and now Deduno/Pelfrey which I think the Twins will attempt to trade Correia to ensure that at least one rotation spot opens up. Also, clearly the Twins are not opposed to having Deduno in the bullpen so I think that if Meyer and May force the issue they will move Deduno back to the bullpen. Just leaving Pelfrey and his 11 million. What happens then I have no idea.

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, that's my thought too, Brock. KC is gone (I think) after this year anyway. For me, as soon as they are relatively sure May or Meyer is better than him, that player should be up. I don't have a lot of faith in Deduno, and Gibson's swing/miss is scary low......I could see a future where May and Meyer are up, and KC is somewhere else, and Gibson is in AAA .....

[LimestoneBaggy]

If I had to guess, the Twins may pull the old "spot start" move. When an opening comes, in time, Meyer gets a spot start. Thus, the Twins get to evaluate his MLB status and create little pressure on the team to remove an incumbent starter (assuming no one else has imploded). If he struggles, you can move him back to triple AAA and still keep the status quo, if he succeeds, you've got some decisions to make.

[kdrupp09]

If I had to guess, the Twins may pull the old "spot start" move. When an opening comes, in time, Meyer gets a spot start. Thus, the Twins get to evaluate his MLB status and create little pressure on the team to remove an incumbent starter (assuming no one else has imploded). If he struggles, you can move him back to triple AAA and still keep the status quo, if he succeeds, you've got some decisions to make.

 

The only issue with this tactic that I can see is that a spot start for Meyer starts his service clock and as cautious as the Twins have been thus far, they are not going to start his service clock for a spot start and then send him right back down. For the Twins to call up Meyer, it has to be because he is going to stay.

 

Also, they would have to add him to the 40 man roster to do that, which likely would mean that any spot start is going to go Johnson/Darnell/May before Meyer unfortunately.

[Mike Sixel]

He's 24. The service clock is such a straw man argument at this point.

[kdrupp09]

He's 24. The service clock is such a straw man argument at this point.

 

I agree, but I was just listing likely reasons that the Twins would not give him a spot start.

[LimestoneBaggy]

He's 24. The service clock is such a straw man argument at this point.

 

I'm not sure I follow the reasoning of why this is a straw man argument? While I don't see the arbitration-related service time as a huge issue, planning out future expenditures to separate them in spacing seems to be a valid part of the decision making process. To draw a relationship between sports, the best run football teams have very well managed cap decisions based on this (although we know baseball has no cap, luxury valuations notwithstanding). Seems to be reasonable to separate out the potential big payouts as much as possible to keep the band together, so-to-speak.

[DJL44]

I don't think service time is as big of a deal as unnecessarily burning an option. The Twins will want to have 3 options left after this season if possible. That means a late callup and September shutdown while in the majors.

[Mike Sixel]

How does wating to start his clock the same year as Sano and Buxton, spread it out? If he needs to optioned three times after this year, he's not the playe we think.....

[LimestoneBaggy]

I don't think service time is as big of a deal as unnecessarily burning an option. The Twins will want to have 3 options left after this season if possible. That means a late callup and September shutdown while in the majors.

 

I can agree with this if he makes it that far, I'm just hopeful the options are not necessary.

[Siehbiscuit]

I have mentioned this before, but will again. Pitchers will get injured and they will also have their struggles. Forget about the Super 2 stuff (the guy is 24) because we will have him during his peak years anyway.

 

Get Meyer in the bullpen and get him MLB experience and also save some innings on his arm for a few months. Meyer will likely be very successful going only an inning or two at a time. Then come late-July or August move him to the rotation full-time. The Cardinals do this with a very high percentage of their young arms. Get them rolling out of the bullpen and they are confident when they move to the rotation. If Correia and Deduno are pitching well, we don't move them just to move them. We do want to win NOW. But that doesn't mean Meyer can't be on the roster and getting some experience. Move Burton for all I care. Save the innings for a while and unleash him later.

[ashbury]

That won't leave many starting opportunities with the Twins- in which case, I'm fine with Gardy's ST suggestion of bringing up Meyer to throw out of the pen- not a bad way to get your feet wet in the majors.

 

I took a look a few weeks back at the Cardinals, and was struck by their practice of having their young solid starting pitchers spend their first major league (or at least their late callup) season mainly in the bullpen. Wainwright jumps out as an example. Lance Lynn. Jaime Garcia and Shelby Miller to a degree. Wacha is the big exception.

 

I think it was a more common practice decades ago, and there is still considerable wisdom to it if you are in build mode rather than win-now. Maybe it's less good of an idea for some players than for others, I don't know.

[LimestoneBaggy]

I think it was a more common practice decades ago, and there is still considerable wisdom to it if you are in build mode rather than win-now. Maybe it's less good of an idea for some players than for others, I don't know.

 

If you are saying replace Pelfrey with Meyer in the pen, yes please. However, even running with the assumption that he is comfortable with throwing out of the pen, and discounting any Slowey-esk arguments, I don't believe I'd make this move now and replace the current relief staff.....dare I say even Burton....for now. Please remember my Pelfrey exception above.

[tobi0040]

Agree to disagree. Im not going to respond to your trolling just because you use bold. i was simply giving my opinion on what i think the twins would do and some observations from the game which i watched on a shi//y feed on an ipad. What is so wrong with making a few starts in AAA? He made very few starts between AA and AFL (16 before AFL last year) last year.

 

From the perspective of needing to put Meyer on the 40 man, I think it makes sense to use someone else for spot starts. Now if he comes up here and we find out he is only average because his change is not effective and he could use a little more time at AAA, then by all means send him down so that when he is up here he is the most effective pitcher he can be.

[PseudoSABR]

Link

Mayday Malone (Boston)

Alex Meyer or Kevin Gausman? Both big clubs need these guys now.

Klaw (2:09 PM)

No, they don't. Stop looking at every minor leaguer like he's going to come to the majors and perform at his peak level right away.

[tobi0040]

Link

Mayday Malone (Boston)

Alex Meyer or Kevin Gausman? Both big clubs need these guys now.

Klaw (2:09 PM)

No, they don't. Stop looking at every minor leaguer like he's going to come to the majors and perform at his peak level right away.

 

 

I usually agree with Keith Law, but I have a hard time buying that Meyer is not an upgrade right now over Pelfrey if he comes back to the rotation, or KC.

[Mike Sixel]

Right, in no way is asking for Meyer to be up the same as assuming he'll be at his best day one.

[jokin]

Link

Mayday Malone (Boston)

Alex Meyer or Kevin Gausman? Both big clubs need these guys now.

Klaw (2:09 PM)

No, they don't. Stop looking at every minor leaguer like he's going to come to the majors and perform at his peak level right away.

 

Taken out of context? Deliberately obtuse?

 

I don't think anyone except "Mayday Malone" believes that Gausman or Meyer are going to come to the majors and perform at their peak level right away. And given Klaw's usual flippancy, I doubt that he believes "Mayday Malone" believes it, either. The Twins are currently 29th in SP ERA @5.32, the Orioles are 25th @4.45. Both Gausman and Meyer offer potential upgrades to the overall SP ERA averages, even performing well below their peak performance levels, and they offer the bonus potential to perform much better than that.

[PseudoSABR]

I usually agree with Keith Law, but I have a hard time buying that Meyer is not an upgrade right now over Pelfrey if he comes back to the rotation, or KC.

He very well might be an upgrade over Pelf or KC; but it seems like you are obscuring what's best for Meyer's complete development. He's got a new change-up, let's see what happens when the scouting reports circulate and he has to make further adjustments.

 

Safe-guarding the development of an elite prospect is nuanced and abstract; so it's easy to get frustrated when minor league results don't translate into a major league promotion. Meyer's longterm future is far, far more important than whatever upgrade he would provide over Pelf and KC.