Pelfrey to the bullpen?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

How so? I didn't say they wouldn't trade them or demote them to the pen. but I don't see them releasing them outright. They will try to accommodate them if they can as they want other free agents to see they will be given fair treatment if things do not work out. It gives them a reputation as being a good place to go when you are a free agent.

I take issue with the "below market" part. I doubt any of the free agents the Twins signed have been anything other than the best contract for the player.

[jorgenswest]

I take issue with the "below market" part. I doubt any of the free agents the Twins signed have been anything other than the best contract for the player.

 

I agree. I would think the same is true for most free agent signings. Once signed it is a matter of performing below, at or above the level of contract.

[jokin]

Meyer isn't even on the 40 man. Until he's on the 40, I'd say there about 4 guys ahead of him.

 

I disagree. There are plenty of roster-clutterers at this point, and a trade, 60-day DL or DFA can be accommodated in an instant. And who would the 4 guys ahead of him be? May, Johnson and Darnell, plus Deduno would be my assumption. The Twins have been all over the likelihood of Meyer's good chances for joining the big club since ST, and the reporters are repeating this message ever since- he's clearly a better option than any of the other 4. The Twins are making a concerted effort in putting a competitive team on the field, finally! It's a new day in Twins Territory. Once Meyer passes the arb date, it's only a matter of time that Meyer is called up, either as a starter or in the pen.

[cmathewson]

I agree. I would think the same is true for most free agent signings. Once signed it is a matter of performing below, at or above the level of contract.

 

The point is, he was unlikely to get $5 Million for one year, let alone two. But the Twins wanted to get more out of him than they got last year. So they became victims of a classic blunder--the sunk cost fallacy, whereby you keep playing a losing hand because you've already bet a lot on it.

[jokin]

The point is, he was unlikely to get $5 Million for one year, let alone two. But the Twins wanted to get more out of him than they got last year. So they became victims of a classic blunder--the sunk cost fallacy, whereby you keep playing a losing hand because you've already bet a lot on it.

 

Classic blunder is an apt description. Was there actually ANYBODY else seriously bidding for Pelfrey's services?

 

But there is another classic blunder that Twins committed in this case: falling in love with players because of "personal makeup", "positive clubhouse influence", etc. I must admit, it's hard not to like Pelfrey personally, but I'd take the "disruptive influence" of somebody like a Kyle Lohse, any day of the week, all things considered- making things easier for a manager should be at the bottom of the priority list.

[Guest USAFChief]

The point is, he was unlikely to get $5 Million for one year, let alone two. But the Twins wanted to get more out of him than they got last year. So they became victims of a classic blunder--the sunk cost fallacy, whereby you keep playing a losing hand because you've already bet a lot on it.

If my understanding of "sunk cost" is correct, Pelfrey wasn't a sunk cost this past winter. The Twins didnt owe him a penny.

 

Continuing to give him starts this year or next, because you owe him money, would be an example of not understanding " sunk costs."

[Brock Beauchamp]

Right now, I see two guys in front of Meyer. Johnson and Deduno.

 

May still has a lot to prove before he gets the call. Darnell isn't in the conversation, IMO.

 

Either way, I expect to see Meyer at some point this season... Probably September unless everyone in front of him crumbles. Next season, it wouldn't surprise me to see him in the rotation on Opening Day.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If my understanding of "sunk cost" is correct, Pelfrey wasn't a sunk cost this past winter. The Twins didnt owe him a penny.

 

Continuing to give him starts this year or next, because you owe him money, would be an example of not understanding " sunk costs."

The sunk cost in this sense, is the investment in rehab starts at the major league level. The FO trotted out Pelf last year while he was still healing, the blunder here is, "We've invested into his playing time as an injured player, now let's reap the reward of a healthy player" but it's a fallacy, you can't assume that he's healthy or more productive one year to the next, just because he was one year removed from TJ and now is two years removed.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I agree. I would think the same is true for most free agent signings. Once signed it is a matter of performing below, at or above the level of contract.

Bingo, this is why I find the Evan Longoria or Glen Perkins model of contract negotiations fascinating in context. The Rays resigned Longoria long term during his rookie contract to lock him up. This follows the depreciation model of capital investing to a tee, where usual sports contracts are the reverse. In sports players become more valuable, the shorter their expected playing time becomes, up to a point where the player seeks out the long contract because they know the clock is about to runout. In capital investing, the capital has it's most value when it's new, and gets depreciated out over the expected life. Any continued operation past the expected life is money in the bank.

 

With baseball players, the last part is Moneyballing, signing the old fogey to a short cheap contract because he's had success in the past, and you think you can platoon him to shield his Achilles.

 

It's really tough to Moneyball starting pitchers, but TR sure likes to try.

[tobi0040]

I take issue with the "below market" part. I doubt any of the free agents the Twins signed have been anything other than the best contract for the player.

 

Boras never signs his guys at a discount. We paid Pelfrey $4-5M last year to rehab on our dime, and put up a 5.19 ERA in the process. Coming off that year, we gave him a two year deal. I would be shocked if he had another 2 year deal on the table. There is really no other way to look at it, we were the sucker in this situation.

 

I just hope someone explains to the front office that deals like Livan Hernandez, Jason Marquis, and Mike Peflrey end up being extremely expensive on a per start basis. Livan made $5M from April to July, Marquis made $3M for seven starts. It appears Pelfrey will have made $11M for 5-6 starts and 3-4 bullpen appearances before we realize we are much better off with Deduno, Swarzak, or a number of different options out there. On the margin, we never have $8M each offseason for a player that will improve our team, but it seems we have $5M every year in dead weight.

[tobi0040]

Right now, I see two guys in front of Meyer. Johnson and Deduno.

 

May still has a lot to prove before he gets the call. Darnell isn't in the conversation, IMO.

 

Either way, I expect to see Meyer at some point this season... Probably September unless everyone in front of him crumbles. Next season, it wouldn't surprise me to see him in the rotation on Opening Day.

 

It is pretty simple, Meyer won't be up until the June deadline. After that deadline, nobody is in front of him. None of the guys on our roster or in AAA are on his level.

[Mike Sixel]

By june, how many innings will he have left on what is likely an innings' limit this year?

[Brock Beauchamp]

It is pretty simple, Meyer won't be up until the June deadline. After that deadline, nobody is in front of him. None of the guys on our roster or in AAA are on his level.

 

Possible, I only wonder if the Twins might be reluctant to promote early because he's not on the 40 man. Either way, I'm not terribly concerned about it. I think they'll have him in Minnesota at some point this season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

By june, how many innings will he have left on what is likely an innings' limit this year?

 

I'm not sure Meyer is going to be on any kind of innings limit.

 

Maybe if he gets to 170+ innings, they might shelve him for the season but I don't think they're going to be overly cautious with his arm.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure Meyer is going to be on any kind of innings limit.

 

Maybe if he gets to 170+ innings, they might shelve him for the season but I don't think they're going to be overly cautious with his arm.

 

Hope you are right, sir. Hope you are right.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I disagree. There are plenty of roster-clutterers at this point, and a trade, 60-day DL or DFA can be accommodated in an instant. And who would the 4 guys ahead of him be? May, Johnson and Darnell, plus Deduno would be my assumption. The Twins have been all over the likelihood of Meyer's good chances for joining the big club since ST, and the reporters are repeating this message ever since- he's clearly a better option than any of the other 4. The Twins are making a concerted effort in putting a competitive team on the field, finally! It's a new day in Twins Territory. Once Meyer passes the arb date, it's only a matter of time that Meyer is called up, either as a starter or in the pen.

 

Well, we will have to agree to disagree then. I don't see Meyer getting called up without the other 4 getting a shot first, for 40 man reasons. Add to it that Darnell and Johnson are both out performing Meyer in AAA right now too.

[jokin]

Well, we will have to agree to disagree then. I don't see Meyer getting called up without the other 4 getting a shot first, for 40 man reasons. Add to it that Darnell and Johnson are both out performing Meyer in AAA right now too.

 

This scenario contradicts what team spokespeople have been saying and what the media talking heads have parroted ever since. Until Terry Ryan comes out with his "(in)famous" need for "consistency" quote, I'm going to operate on the assumption that Brooks Raley, Kenny What's-his-AA-Name have "expendable" practically written into their contracts, plus they can 60-day, trade or DFA someone. Darnell and May clearly aren't ready, they appear to have lost all faith with Deduno as a starter (never even considered the possibility in ST), and while Johnson would be the logical call-up in an emergency double-header scenario, I think that once they have established that someone is coming out of the rotation, Meyer is going to get his shot.

[tobi0040]

Hope you are right, sir. Hope you are right.

 

Meyer pitched 129 innings in 2012 and 104 in 2013 between the minors and fall league. 150+ innings does not seem out of the question. He only has 20 IP so far. If he has another 8 starts before the June deadline at 6 IP a start, he has 82 innings before he reaches 150.

[Brandon]

Right now it is more important for the Twins to have more options as more things can go wrong over the remaining 140 games. When there are only 70 or 80 games it will likely be ok to loose an option so to speak. We can trade Corriea and let Meyer come up. We will still have options available and the probability of needing all of them will be reduced by the fewer number of games remaining on the schedule.

[Mike Sixel]

I think it is more important to have the best players up. Every bad start makes the value of a future good start much lower.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

This was an interesting tidbit on MLB Trade Rumors :

 

The Twins were called this weekend about the prospects of signing right-hander Scott Baker, but have no interest, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com. Baker is currently pitching for the Rangers‘ Triple-A affiliate (2.77 ERA, 7.3 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 in 26 innings covering four starts), but has a May 1st opt-out date.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/04/al-notes-cano-tigers-as-baker.html#disqus_thread

---

They shouldn't have interest, should they? Baker would be an upgrade over _____ ? Would you rather have Baker or Pelfrey at this point? Probably just shuffling deck chairs to take on another contract for a 30+ year old starter.

[cmathewson]

I think it is more important to have the best players up. Every bad start makes the value of a future good start much lower.

 

This. Meyer will not reach arbitration years without a long-term deal. I can understand waiting 'till June for a guy like Santana, who has about a 60% chance of being the long-term answer at short. Meyer has a 99% chance of being a long-term answer in the starting rotation. The 1% is injury-related. He has more ability than any pitcher I've ever seen in the Twins system, including Santana and Liriano.

[jokin]

I think it is more important to have the best players up. Every bad start makes the value of a future good start much lower.

 

Other than obtaining the extra year of control, I hope and sense that the Twins are currently operating under this presumption. The management vibe seems much more results-oriented-now than it has been in a long, long time.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, it appears that way, jokin. We'll see in a few weeks (assuming Pelfrey continues to bad) if that is true or not. We'll also see early next year with how they treat Buxton and Sano.

[kab21]

This. Meyer will not reach arbitration years without a long-term deal. I can understand waiting 'till June for a guy like Santana, who has about a 60% chance of being the long-term answer at short. Meyer has a 99% chance of being a long-term answer in the starting rotation. The 1% is injury-related. He has more ability than any pitcher I've ever seen in the Twins system, including Santana and Liriano.

 

agent: Scott Boras

 

 

It's unlikely that Meyer has a contract before he reaches arbitration but the important deadline (opening day) has passed. I have always contended that too much focus has been on the Super 2 deadline and not giving the player an extra year of arb. Teams certainly do it but that's just being cheap and taking advantage of the system. If a player is playing like an all star then pay them 5M in arb. The important thing is that his FA has been delayed by a year by not being on the opening day roster. I will trade 5+ starts this season for 30+ as a potential star in 6 years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

agent: Scott Boras

 

 

It's unlikely that Meyer has a contract before he reaches arbitration but the important deadline (opening day) has passed. I have always contended that too much focus has been on the Super 2 deadline and not giving the player an extra year of arb. Teams certainly do it but that's just being cheap and taking advantage of the system. If a player is playing like an all star then pay them 5M in arb. The important thing is that his FA has been delayed by a year by not being on the opening day roster. I will trade 5+ starts this season for 30+ as a potential star in 6 years.

 

Yep. I couldn't care less about Super 2 status. That's just being cheap. But that extra year of control? That's worth delaying a player's call-up.

[Mike Sixel]

Like when the Angels delayed Trouts, and missed the playoffs? And then signed him to an extension anyway?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Like when the Angels delayed Trouts, and missed the playoffs? And then signed him to an extension anyway?

 

Mike Trout is not represented by Scott Boras.

 

I'll trade part of a season from a 24 year old Alex Meyer for the entirety of his age 30 season.

[tobi0040]

He has more ability than any pitcher I've ever seen in the Twins system, including Santana and Liriano.

 

Clearly the best to come up since 2006. Liriano was amazing though, pre-TJ. 121 IP, 2.16 ERA, 144 K. That slider was unhittable. Meyer has a good slider too, but I can't imagine it was that good. Hopefully it means Meyer won't need Tommy John.

[kab21]

Like when the Angels delayed Trouts, and missed the playoffs? And then signed him to an extension anyway?

 

If Meyer was as ready as Trout and would have even close to the same impact then he should be up. If the Twins were acting like a legitimate contender this offseason then they should have signed Ervin Santana and Drew which would likely have had a bigger impact than an extra 5 starts from Meyer.

 

An extra 5 starts from a rookie pitcher are not going to be the difference maker. There's no guarantee that he doesn't get lit up since he hasn't even been that sharp in AAA so far. The frustrating part is that he's likely to spend more than half a season in AAA as the Twins throw spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks.