Dustin Pedroia- Down and Possibly Out- Drew or....Dozier..... to take his place?

[jokin]

Boston Globe headline:

Red Sox fear Dustin Pedroia’s wrist injury could be serious

 

Pedroia left the Sox in New York to get his wrist tested and MRId on Monday. If the worst should happen with Pedroia and he's out for much of the season, the Sox have options to replace him, but clearly Roberts and Herrera are substandard, at best, while Brock Holt is untested and has a suspect glove, as well. Will Middlebrooks, as was the case for much of 2013, is once again on the DL, as well.

 

While Stephen Drew seems like the obvious solution, what about Brian Dozier? Well, consider his spray chart applied to Fenway, where instead of the Target Field left field dimensions of 343/385/408, you'd have a much friendlier set of numbers: 308/334/390.

 

And then consider Dozier's spray chart:

 

 

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/batter/572821/?pitchers=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=4%2F1%2F2013&to=4%2F12%2F2014

 

30 Home Runs and an OPS+ of 120 seems within reasonably possible reach.

 

The Red Sox have a whole slug of well-documented and near-major league ready arms, along with a decent Catcher in Blake Swithart and a college SS, Deven Marrero. I doubt that the BoSox are paniced enough yet to part with a top 10 prospect for Dozier, but if they do panic, and then study that spray chart of Dozier's, his strong defense at 2nd, plus the fact that they could swing him over to 3rd if/when Pedroia returns to health, the Twins might have a chance to nab top flite talent to fill a hole going forward. Obviously, his departure would leave a huge hole right now in the Twins infield, but the Twins do have Nunez, Beresford and Santana knocking on the door for right now, and it looks more and more like Polanco or maybe Rosario will be knocking on the door to claiming the 2nd base job long-term by June 2015.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The Red Sox best prospect right now is 2B Mookie Bettts. He's not major league ready now, but I don't see them wanting add anything more than a stopgap.

 

Plus, Dozier is part of the solution, not the problem.

[cmathewson]

^^^^This

[Brock Beauchamp]

I wonder if this is a good opt-out for all parties. The Sox can take back Drew without losing a pick. They could negotiate a contract that doesn't allow him to be offered arbitration next season. This offseason, Drew walks without the albatross that is a comp pick around his neck.

 

This makes all the sense in the world.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Yeah, I don't see Dozier getting traded to the Sox. The Twins will want far too much for the Sox to do it.

[tobi0040]

Yeah, I don't see Dozier getting traded to the Sox. The Twins will want far too much for the Sox to do it.

 

This is not happening. Drew for some money makes way more sense. I would like to see a team friendly deal for Dozier

[TKGuy]

No way Dozier gets traded, I am convinced that he is the future and that Rosario's is in the OF. You can see the pieces starting to come together. Pinto's bat seems like the real deal. We do need that SS, unless Santana can field better.

 

Meyer is looking ready and excited to see If May can follow up on his first outing with the same control. Tonkin for sure looks like the setup guy for Perk.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No way Dozier gets traded, I am convinced that he is the future and that Rosario's is in the OF. You can see the pieces starting to come together. Pinto's bat seems like the real deal. We do need that SS, unless Santana can field better.

 

I think it's more likely that Rosario or Dozier gets traded. Rosario's bat doesn't profile to a corner OF spot and if he comes back and continues to hit, his value should be sky-high (and Dozier's value continues to skyrocket).

[old nurse]

I wonder if this is a good opt-out for all parties. The Sox can take back Drew without losing a pick. They could negotiate a contract that doesn't allow him to be offered arbitration next season. This offseason, Drew walks without the albatross that is a comp pick around his neck.

 

This makes all the sense in the world.

 

Drew was not on the opening day roster so he would not be subject to compensation.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Drew was not on the opening day roster so he would not be subject to compensation.

 

Excellent point. So it's even more logical for this to happen, no need to negotiate it into the contract.

[Major League Ready]

I think it's more likely that Rosario or Dozier gets traded. Rosario's bat doesn't profile to a corner OF spot and if he comes back and continues to hit, his value should be sky-high (and Dozier's value continues to skyrocket).

 

Agree. One of Dozier or Rosario gets traded. Rosario's value is higher at 2B and with any luck we have a few options for corner OFers. I hope Kepler, Walker, Harrison and others make it easy to trade to Hick's once Buxton gets here. Trading Rosario, Hicks or both might end up being how we get our SS of the future.

 

If Walker and Kepler pan out nicely that would be an athletic outfield that should really hit.

 

C Pinto

1B Mauer

2B Dozier or Rosario

3B Sano

SS Via trade of Hicks/Rosario or international

OF Kepler

CF Buxton

OF Walker

DH Arcia / Vargas / Harrison

 

That lineup should hit some HRs.

[Seth Stohs]

It is interesting to "guess"/Predict how a guy like Dozier would do in Fenway Park. There actually are quite a few similarities between him and Pedroia and the field's dimensions would possibly mean different/improved numbers for Dozier. Of course, the other side is how would Pedroia be perceived if his home field was Target Field?

[gunnarthor]

I don't mind the idea of trading Dozier but the return has to be great. It looks like he's a legit starting second baseman and under team control for 4 years. That's tough to trade unless the other side is giving up something big.

[iTwins]

I don't see it happening. First, because the Red Sox likely won't part with the prospects the Twins want (need) for a stop gap solution like Dozier. Additionally, the Twins have been sorely missing a competent 2B for years. Dozier plays great defense and his bat looks to be an asset as well. It doesn't make much sense for the team to be dumping a young asset like Dozier, who is under team control for the next 5 years, without having a sure solution in the wings (I'm not convinced Rosario is there yet).

[tobi0040]

I don't mind the idea of trading Dozier but the return has to be great. It looks like he's a legit starting second baseman and under team control for 4 years. That's tough to trade unless the other side is giving up something big.

 

Dozier is pushing his way to be a top 10 2B. I don't see Boston giving up what it would take to pry him away, just to be a 2-3 months stop gap.

[Craig Arko]

I'll vote for Drew.

[Mike Sixel]

They won't be good this year, they won't be good next year probably, and even 2017 could be a stretch......so why not trade Dozier? Rosario and Polanco and maybe even Santana are your future 2B......so I'd deal him, since they punted on this year, and I don't see Ryan ever spending on FA to INCREASE payroll signficantly and trying to get better signficantly until Sano, Buxton and others are up and consistently very good....which will be 17 or 18.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

They won't be good this year, they won't be good next year probably, and even 2017 could be a stretch......so why not trade Dozier? Rosario and Polanco and maybe even Santana are your future 2B......so I'd deal him, since they punted on this year, and I don't see Ryan ever spending on FA to INCREASE payroll signficantly and trying to get better signficantly until Sano, Buxton and others are up and consistently very good....which will be 17 or 18.....

 

The value difference in trading Dozier right now and trading him in July of 2015 is minimal.

 

In the meantime, you get a good player on a team that badly needs good players.

 

Of course, you also run the risk of him getting hurt but one can't run a baseball team scared that his players will get injured.

 

I believe every team should start the season with the goal of winning baseball games. If good things happen, run with it and adjust on the fly. If bad things happen, consider moving players with value if the deal is right... But only if the deal is right.

 

And I don't see any reason why the Red Sox would offer fair value for Dozier right now.

 

It's really easy to end up being the Kansas City Royals for 2+ decades if you continually trade off good players. At some point, you need to keep a few "bridge" players and hope that their experience will put you over the top when the big wave of prospects starts to hit.

[Mike Sixel]

Hey, I'm with you, Brock.....but Ryan hasn't shown that in his past. Heck, when contending he's traded off players. My point was, if you are going all in on a rebuild, go all in. Don't go halfway, like the last three years. As you know, I would have tried A LOT harder to make this team better on the offseason, since they have 20-40MM sitting in their budget doing nothing, but that is NOT the choice they made. So, if you aren't actually going to try, then really go all in on your actual strategy.

[Guest USAFChief]

It's difficult for me to even imagine the Twins trading Dozier. Nor do I think they should.

[nicksaviking]

Dozier seems to be stepping into the role of vocal leader for this club. His true value may be starting to surpass his statistical value for the Twins.

 

Still, I'm open to trading him, as Brock said, Rosario as a 2B is exciting but as a corner OF is not. Of course Rosario and Polanco aren't coming up any time soon and odds are, Dozier's current production tops what they could do. Even if the timing was right though, I like to gamble with my trade assets, and my money is on Dozier increasing his value. He's playing well despite a sub .200 BA, and while SABRmetricly inclined Boston would surely be more interested in his 125 OPS+, it may still serve the Twins well to wait for the average/OBP to get to the .240/.340 range if they were open to trading him. And they likely are not. We all suspect the Twins aren't going to compete, but the team isn't going to trade a budding local celebrity (such dreamy hair!) in April when the team is at .500. It would be a sign of surrender.

[ericchri]

A trade for Dozier seems unlikely at this point, but it's interesting food for thought. I wouldn't be surprised if there's actually been a token call made already to get the ludicrously high/low opening offers (depending on which side of the deal you are) out of the way. Fenway Park sure would seem to be a great place for Dozier, though.

[Major League Ready]

The value difference in trading Dozier right now and trading him in July of 2015 is minimal.

 

In the meantime, you get a good player on a team that badly needs good players.

 

Right, why rush? Let's wait and see who steps up to be the 2B of the future. We have incredible depth in the system and patience is required to maximize these assets and our future roster. IMO, trading Dozier now has absolutely no correlation to how committed the FO is to a rebuild. It is about maximizing assets and constructing the best possible roster for the future.

 

Now, if someone blows us away with an offer for Dozier, great. That would make sense in terms of maximizing assets and building a future contender. It would have to be starting pitching or our SS of the future.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think you'd be dealing Dozier at peak value. He's had a GREAT start but teams are still going to be wary of him.

 

Hold on to him until someone forces you (whether that be Dozier himself or Rosario or whomever) to make a move.

[Winston Smith]

Why would the Sox do this? Drew has a better career slash line and he cost nothing but money. Why give up a good prospect for a player that has had some short term success (seems like everyone is overly excited by a few home runs) but hasn't proven over a long haul he is a major league hitter.

To the Sox he'd likely become a utility player when Pedroia comes back, is that worth a top prospect?

[scottz]

This seems like a very playtime imagination scenario. I do not see a scenario where Brian Dozier would be traded this season.

[Monkeypaws]

Can Beresford play 2nd?

[halfchest]

I guess I'm one of the few who would like to see this team try to contend now, even if it's unrealistic. You can't keep trading for the future . . . especially with the future. Dozier is under control for multiple years and is our only proven (semi proven really) middle infielder in the system at least at MLB level. He's the only guy who's done it both offensively and defensively at the major league level. Given the years of control I wait to make sure Rosario/Polanco/Santana can hack it at AAA before I even consider trading Dozier. Dozier very much could factor into the next wave of winning which needs to get going sooner than later. Even if the Twins only wing 75-80 this year, I for one am sick and tired of 90 loss seasons and horrid baseball. If they trade away one of their best players I may just turn it off for the year.

 

The other problem is he's still fringy as far as value goes. I think the only thing I would even consider him for would be another Span type trade for someone like Alex Meyer or for a top SS. At this point he hasn't proven himself long enough to be as valuable as Span and given his power over last year and beginning of this year along with his defense he has the upside of being more valuable than Span if he continues this through 2014. Lets say he hits 20 homeruns has an OPS of .750 and continues his plus defensive play? Then what's his value 6 months from now? Probably damn near untouchable honestly.

[Shane Wahl]

It would be fun to envision the parallel universe of Dozier and Mauer in Fenway in exchange for 4 top 8-10 Boston prospects.

 

But Dozier at second right now is working enormously well. I have liked Rosario a lot all along, but he is going to be traded eventually here. I wouldn't do it, but he will be traded.

[Mike Sixel]

For all those wanting to contend in 16 or 17....do you really think they'll sign a FA or two, to fill in gaps? They have still cut payroll every year (assuming you measure this year based on the new $25MM baseline), and still have not traded a young player for a legit vet. I guess they won't do that, because "who would sign here to play x with such great prospects behind them". Do you really think adding a bunch of rookies next year, assuming any of them are healthy and emotionally stable, will have them be good next year, or even the next? I just don't see it, and at that point, you might as well "only play for the future" as Johan and Torrii put it.