Who could have seen this Pelfrey start coming...

[notoriousgod71]

Barring injury, Nolasco and Hughes aren't leaving the rotation after two months' worth of struggling, let alone two starts' worth.

 

That leaves Correia, who was better than Deduno last year, Pelfrey, who was arguably better and had better seasons than his 2013 before TJ, and Gibson, who was worse than Deduno but has the 2014 rotation's only win and its only ERA under 6.

 

Deduno will get his chances to start at some point, either due to injury or ineffectiveness of the front five. Until then, he should continue to work on turning himself into a relief pitcher. Most relievers in MLB were starters at one point in their careers, so it's an extremely common career arc and the odds are he'll get it figured out eventually.

 

In fact, you could argue that he already has, with the exception of control, already started to do so based on his high K rate and low FIP/xFIP. Like the rotation, he's a work in progress as a reliever, and I hope he continues to progress. He's fun to watch when he's on, and entertaining in an America's Funniest Videos sort of way when he's not.

 

How was Correia or arguably Pelfrey better than Deduno last year?

[BigTrane]

Just guesstimating, but at this point I'd say Deduno gets his shot by May.

Anderson? He goes when Molly becomes manager.

[jokin]

How was Correia or arguably Pelfrey better than Deduno last year?

 

Predictability and health.

[jokin]

Just guesstimating, but at this point I'd say Deduno gets his shot by May.

Anderson? He goes when Molly becomes manager.

 

Sooo, 2016 then, for Molly....?

[jorgenswest]

In Pelfrey's "good " stretch of 15 starts last year...

 

15 starts

4.39 ERA

82 inn

90 hits

32 walks

63 k's

 

Innings eater?

 

Only 1 of the 15 starts was 7 innings. He did get an out in the 8th inning of any start in his good stretch. It is really hard to be an inning eater when you carry his pitch/plate appearance rate.

 

FIP?

 

K/BB ratio was 2.74 with the bases empty vs. 1.27 with runners on base. That is consistent with his career numbers. Correspondingly OPS against is 61 points worse with runners on base. FIP is based in strikeouts, walks and hime runs. Pitchers whose performance drops with runners on base will have FIPs that are lower than the rates in which they give up runs.

 

If the hope is that he can pitch like he did the second half, expect a mid 4 ERA in starts shorter than 7 innings. At best a number 4 starter.

 

If the hope is that he will be an innings eating starter with ERAs to match his FIP, I don't think that is realistic.

[LaBombo]

How was Correia or arguably Pelfrey better than Deduno last year?

"Valuable" would have been a more accurate word than"better". They all achieved fielding-independent results that were pretty close to each other, but Correia and Pelfrey logged more innings.

 

And since the comparison was made in the context of deciding who should be in the rotation now, it's relevant to note that they were as good in the second half of the season as they were in the first, while Deduno saw his walk rate rise to an unacceptable 4+ per 9 innings.

 

Was never a fan of either the Correia or Pelfrey signings, so it's not very rewarding to defend them. Deduno is fun to watch, so it's not very rewarding to point out his warts.

 

But the impression that Deduno is obviously better than KC or MP is worth debating. And the idea that he's an obviously better investment in the future than either is hard to swallow given the fact that he's a year older than Pelfrey, whose post-TJ ceiling has yet to be established, and Correia, though older, has enough of a whiff of serviceability in his track record that he stands a slim chance of bringing something in trade.

 

Short story long, I'd be fine with Deduno replacing the slowest non-Hughlasco antelope in the fifth starter herd next month. But the notion that it's some sort of affront to the allmighty that he's not in the rotation tomorrow is hard to swallow.

[tobi0040]

So a long time ago...and even then his peripherals where not fantastic. I dunno, I have never been all that happy he was on the team.

 

when we are picking out 400 ip of his 1100 career. Most of which were 4 and 6 years ago....almost all nl.

[jokin]

In Pelfrey's "good " stretch of 15 starts last year...

 

15 starts

4.39 ERA

82 inn

90 hits

32 walks

63 k's

 

Innings eater?

 

Only 1 of the 15 starts was 7 innings. He did get an out in the 8th inning of any start in his good stretch. It is really hard to be an inning eater when you carry his pitch/plate appearance rate.

 

FIP?

 

K/BB ratio was 2.74 with the bases empty vs. 1.27 with runners on base. That is consistent with his career numbers. Correspondingly OPS against is 61 points worse with runners on base. FIP is based in strikeouts, walks and hime runs. Pitchers whose performance drops with runners on base will have FIPs that are lower than the rates in which they give up runs.

 

If the hope is that he can pitch like he did the second half, expect a mid 4 ERA in starts shorter than 7 innings. At best a number 4 starter.

 

If the hope is that he will be an innings eating starter with ERAs to match his FIP, I don't think that is realistic.

 

The September BABIP and off-the-wall strand rate significantly skew the ERA and OPS in those last 15 starts.

 

But I'll agree with you, he's an innings eater who will never match his FIP- in the 5th starter sense of the word- even hoping for 4th starter level is speculative at best. That's why his salary is commensurate with a veteran 5th starter.

[Teflon]

I know Pelfrey is a painfully slow worker on the mound but today he looked even more deliberative than usual. It was hard not to feel he as if he dreaded every pitch he had to make, hoping to clip corners instead of trying to challenge the A's hitters. He ended up throwing a lot of balls out of the strike zone then having to make a get-me-over pitch that the A's feasted on. I feel sorry for the guy as the fans are starting to boo him.

 

As far as other factors compounding Pelfrey's performance (and the Twins starting pitchers in general) I have a couple of questions for the more knowledgeable observers based on what I saw today -

 

1. Are Twins outfielders positioned intelligently? Mastroianni's supposed to be fast, right? But he seemed to either be too deep or too shallow on balls hit to RF. Kubel ended up chasing a lot of balls in LF today, too, but LF is a larger field to play and Kubel is not the fastest outfielder. (So why wasn't he playing RF and Mastroianni playing LF?)

 

2. Does a rookie like Pinto behind the plate as opposed to the veteran Suzuki make any difference in Pelfrey's pitch selection and tempo? Suzuki caught Pelfrey's initial game which progressed nicely through the early innings unit he fell apart in the 5th inning so not sure it matters. Just asking, though.

[Kwak]

I know Pelfrey is a painfully slow worker on the mound but today he looked even more deliberative than usual. It was hard not to feel he as if he dreaded every pitch he had to make, hoping to clip corners instead of trying to challenge the A's hitters. He ended up throwing a lot of balls out of the strike zone then having to make a get-me-over pitch that the A's feasted on. I feel sorry for the guy as the fans are starting to boo him.

 

As far as other factors compounding Pelfrey's performance (and the Twins starting pitchers in general) I have a couple of questions for the more knowledgeable observers based on what I saw today -

 

1. Are Twins outfielders positioned intelligently? Mastroianni's supposed to be fast, right? But he seemed to either be too deep or too shallow on balls hit to RF. Kubel ended up chasing a lot of balls in LF today, too, but LF is a larger field to play and Kubel is not the fastest outfielder. (So why wasn't he playing RF and Mastroianni playing LF?)

 

2. Does a rookie like Pinto behind the plate as opposed to the veteran Suzuki make any difference in Pelfrey's pitch selection and tempo? Suzuki caught Pelfrey's initial game which progressed nicely through the early innings unit he fell apart in the 5th inning so not sure it matters. Just asking, though.

 

Too shallow or too deep? Hindsight is 20/20. But, those HRs make Mastro's depth irrelevant.

 

Pitch selection? What selection? Pelfrey has one pitch.

[Chief_Roberts]

"This is the year Pelfrey finally gets back to form. It usually takes two full seasons to recover from Tommy John."

[Mike Sixel]

So a long time veteran can't handle having a rookie behind the plate? Pelfrey is a veteran getting paid millions. His problem isn't Pinto, several years of data indicate that.

[Winston Smith]

When you sign guys that are mediocre at their best when they aren't at their best it isn't going to be pretty.

 

OK Career ERA+ isn't perfect but easy for this:

 

Corriea 89, Pelfry 89, Nolasco 93 and Hughes 94. If 100 is average why should we expect these guys to be good and be surprised when they aren't?

[thetank]

When you sign guys that are mediocre at their best when they aren't at their best it isn't going to be pretty.

 

OK Career ERA+ isn't perfect but easy for this:

 

Corriea 89, Pelfry 89, Nolasco 93 and Hughes 94. If 100 is average why should we expect these guys to be good and be surprised when they aren't?

If they hadn't been signed just think how bad the pitching would be.