Article: Why is Joe Mauer Such a Lightning Rod?

[tobi0040]

I don't think Mauer is nearly the most frequently criticized Twin.

 

Maybe Pelfrey or Pedro come close. But the point was your best player and worst two players should not be the most criticized.

[Guest USAFChief]

Not thousands, they gave a minimum 1500 PAs, just a couple hundred. He's batting 150 points higher than league average. If he tried doing it more often he would be less successful at it.

 

Is the biggest criticism anyone can come up with for Mauer is he's too picky swinging at the first pitch? That's not much of a criticism. He's very successful with his approach. It certainly doesn't explain why people whine so much.

You're correct, hundreds.

 

But I don't think either of us know what the result would be if he tried it more often. Your data suggests players, including Mauer, are very successful swinging at the first pitch, including those who do it often. Mauer bats almost .500 and SLGs almost .800 on the first pitch. It seems reasonable to at least consider the possibility he should try more of it.

[LaBombo]

I guess I don't understand why a walk would be less valuable than a single on the first pitch. Isn't the idea to make the pitcher work by taking pitches and then still get on base. If you ascribe to the theory of taking pitches which most teams do then isn't taking pitches more advantageous than not taking pitches? I am not sure I understand can you elaborate?

That situation aside, a single is more valuable in general when considering only the offensive outcome. It moves non-consecutive baserunners and exploits the possibility of error.

 

But the tangible cumulative effect that walks have on starters in the age of hard pitch counts can be devastating. Math avoiders, avert your eyes:

 

Pitches/IP = 7.626 (K%) + 15.678 (BB%) + 13.518

 

It's from Fangraphs, not the Bureau of Weights and Measures, but the methodology looks sound and it makes intuitive sense: If a starter walks lots of guys, pitch count will catch up to him even if runs allowed doesn't.

 

Putting Mauer into the equation, his walk rate means that on average, a lineup of nine Mauers means the opposing starter will throw two more pitches per inning than if he put the ball in play. Big deal, right?

 

Except that two more pitches per inning means that the average starter probably leaves the game an inning sooner. That's huge.

 

Yes, I get that Mauer isn't single-handedly chasing starters. But adding to opposing starter pitch counts is a valuable and tangible skill.

[BHtwins]

If only those stats were used in HOF voting...

 

Those stats are created to measure HOF likliehood. Of the top 10 in WAR7 all are in the HOF or will be. Of the top 12 in JAWS only Thurmon Munson isnt or wont be and that has more to do with his general nastiness as a person and he died just prior to where Mauer is in his career.

 

Thats what the stats try do...not guesswork....not subjectivity but who is actually in the HOF to work backward to who is worthy.

 

So...yeah... objectivity trumps BS every single time

[BHtwins]

You're correct, hundreds.

 

But I don't think either of us know what the result would be if he tried it more often. Your data suggests players, including Mauer, are very successful swinging at the first pitch, including those who do it often. Mauer bats almost .500 and SLGs almost .800 on the first pitch. It seems reasonable to at least consider the possibility he should try more of it.

 

It does not and I will say again the issue has been looked at objectively and there is no correlation to an improvement in offensive value by doing so.

 

Even if he was a .400 hitter in every situation, swinging at 50% more often on first pitches the difference would be microscopic. There is very strong possibility, as in almost 100%, that if he did swing more often on 0-0 counts then he currently does that his OPS would drop to closer to his norm. Regression.....if it continued trending he would likely, as in almost 100%, hit worse then his current career norm.

 

So...yeah about as much good as adjusting his cup.

 

He hits well on 0-0 counts because he only swings when its a pitch he can do something with

[LaBombo]

I don't think Mauer is nearly the most frequently criticized Twin.

He's been their best player for ten years, so... darning with faint praise?

[BHtwins]

So a fastball down the middle is not a strong, hittable pitch?

 

Of course EVERY hitter lets hittable pitches go by. They guessed wrong, a mosquito buzzed their ear, they blinked. The point is that good hitters dont swing at crap. They liklihood that Mauer hits a first pitch strike hard somewhere is better then a poor hitter but that doesnt mean he is going to catch every meatball.

 

Again....the issue has been looked at. Nothing your saying works out objectively when it is.

 

 

 

/moderator action, inflammatory remark removed

[BHtwins]

Someone asked earlier in the thread if there was any criticism that was legitimate.

 

There is one, it may have been brought it up, but I didnt see it.

 

Mauer's GIDP rate is probably higher then a hitter of his caliber should be. It does effect his offensive value and I think its one area of pretty legitimate concern,

[jokin]

That situation aside, a single is more valuable in general when considering only the offensive outcome. It moves non-consecutive baserunners and exploits the possibility of error.

 

But the tangible cumulative effect that walks have on starters in the age of hard pitch counts can be devastating. Math avoiders, avert your eyes:

 

Pitches/IP = 7.626 (K%) + 15.678 (BB%) + 13.518

 

It's from Fangraphs, not the Bureau of Weights and Measures, but the methodology looks sound and it makes intuitive sense: If a starter walks lots of guys, pitch count will catch up to him even if runs allowed doesn't.

 

Putting Mauer into the equation, his walk rate means that on average, a lineup of nine Mauers means the opposing starter will throw two more pitches per inning than if he put the ball in play. Big deal, right?

 

Except that two more pitches per inning means that the average starter probably leaves the game an inning sooner. That's huge.

 

Yes, I get that Mauer isn't single-handedly chasing starters. But adding to opposing starter pitch counts is a valuable and tangible skill.

I was going to jump in on this very issue, but Bombo said it better with the hard data. On the current Twins roster, Mauer's game really dictates that he should be leading off, and batting 2nd with Buxton leading off when that day comes. Mauer is very, very good at HIS game. The problem is, so many here want him or expect him to be 2009 good every year and don't understand the incredible value of the "career average Joe Mauer year." He's really one of the best table setters of all time, and his move to 1st should keep him producing at a level that gets him comfortably into the HOF within a couple of years of eligibility.

 

Here are the stats for the last 11 years of the careers of Wade Boggs and Mark Grace:

 

Boggs had the 5th most WAR at 3rd Base from 1989-1999 (age 41) with this slash:

 

.307/.392/.412/.804

 

Grace had the 11th most WAR at 1st Base from 1993-2003 (age 39) with this slash:

 

.305/.388/.457/.845

 

Assuming Mauer can correct his recent increase in K% and has no lingering concussion issues, he can eclipse both of those slash lines between now and 2024.

[jharaldson]

Can you attach the link to study you have referred to a number of times? If the matter has been objectively looked at and proven then it should be well documented. Thanks!

[jokin]

Someone asked earlier in the thread if there was any criticism that was legitimate.

 

There is one, it may have been brought it up, but I didnt see it.

 

Mauer's GIDP rate is probably higher then a hitter of his caliber should be. It does effect his offensive value and I think its one area of pretty legitimate concern,

 

Scroll right, nothing to be ashamed about being in this group:

 

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[twinsnorth49]

No, I don't disagree with any of that.

I just think people should be able to criticize certain aspects of his game without being burned at the stake, which is what is happening in this thread.

 

I don't understand why a person cannot BOTH think that Mauer is a HOF player, and also has flaws that he could work on, as I do.

 

Nobody's burning anyone at the stake, are you being a bit dramatic? The thing I'm confused about is, what the criticism is exactly?. What's the flaw again? Not swinging at meatballs down the middle of the plate with 2 on and 2 out in the 9th inning of a 3 run game......in early April? I guess he needs to practice his clutchness more?

 

This whole discussion for some seems to be centered on not only a single at bat but arguably a single pitch he decided not to swing at. It's not that I have an issue with being critical of Mauer, it's just that in this instance it seems pretty contrived and petty.

 

To me second guessing which pitches a hitter as good as Mauer decides to swing at or not doesn't have a lot of credibility considering his overall body of work.

[Craig Arko]

Maybe he just needs to grow the sideburns back out. Then they can start running his 'Mean Joe' ad again where he yanks them off and gives them to the kid. That should restore his folk hero status.

[kblack1011]

Olerud never won a batting title did he? Ole rude never won a gold glove or an MVP did he? Mauer is the first catcher ever to win three batting titles. That makes hi elite.

 

Olerud did win a batting title in 1993 (.363 with a .473 OBP), so compared to Mauer's 3, he closer to him then Mauer is to Carew 7 title. Not saying Olerud is elite, just saying he a better comparison. Mauer still has a lot to prove before you put him in Carew's class.

[cmathewson]

No, I don't disagree with any of that.

I just think people should be able to criticize certain aspects of his game without being burned at the stake, which is what is happening in this thread.

 

I don't understand why a person cannot BOTH think that Mauer is a HOF player, and also has flaws that he could work on, as I do.

 

Of course you can. No one said you can't . But you're not the audience we're talking about. Those who exaggerate his deficiencies and diminish his contributions contrary to science are. You started to go there when you analyzed a single at bat as a paradigm case of his deficiencies. I don't think it's all that helpful to look at one at bat in which the team is down by three runs and down to its last out as all that instructive. Especially his second walk of the day in which he went 2-5 with an RBI.

 

Pick a larger sample. Look at tendencies. But most of all, put it into context. Even the best hitters make an out 60% of the time. The fact that Mauer has a better percentage than the best hitters almost every year, and from the catching position is not a sign of weakness. It's a sign of strength. So he's not a home run hitter. Many of the all-time greats weren't either.

 

The Twins ruined their relationship with Rod Carew by insisting that he hit homers. So one year he swung for the fences a lot, struck out more than normal, and had his other numbers suffered. They were more critical of him after the second year (as were the fan), and traded him. Mauer is similar. You can add homers, but you'll make him more strikeout prone and he'll roll over more balls to second. His OBP will drop below .400 and he'll be less productive overall.

 

It's a zero sum game. Stop trying to fix what is not broken. Start appreciating the history you are witnessing. That is all.

[kblack1011]

Besides, the walk was not useless in the situation (runners on first and second, two outs). Down by three runs, they needed base runners. Loading the bases gets them a double away from tying it. It has the same affect as a single. The odds of an extra base hit were pretty low. The odds of a walk were pretty high. He was just playing the odds.

 

What wrong with a 3 run home run or a 2 run double? Mauer is the best hitter on the team, but he leave important at bat to other players. Sometimes the best hitter needs to show it when the games on the line. Too often over the last couple years, Mauer has not shown it during the important AB, which again, I think was the point of the Reusse's article.

[cmathewson]

Olerud did win a batting title in 1993 (.363 with a .473 OBP), so compared to Mauer's 3, he closer to him then Mauer is to Carew 7 title. Not saying Olerud is elite, just saying he a better comparison. Mauer still has a lot to prove before you put him in Carew's class.

 

Fair enough. As Carew did at this age, moving to first will allow him to play another 10 years, win a few more batting titles and collect 3000 hits. I'm all for it.

[Craig Arko]

The Twins ruined their relationship with Rod Carew by insisting that he hit homers.

.....

It's a zero sum game.

 

The first part; I think Calvin behaving like a 19th century plantation owner had something to do with it, too.

 

As for the second, I don't see that as true at all. Improvement in one area does not require diminishment in another to offset the gain.

[Guest USAFChief]

Nobody's burning anyone at the stake, are you being a bit dramatic? The thing I'm confused about is, what the criticism is exactly?. What's the flaw again? Not swinging at meatballs down the middle of the plate with 2 on and 2 out in the 9th inning of a 3 run game......in early April? I guess he needs to practice his clutchness more?

 

This whole discussion for some seems to be centered on not only a single at bat but arguably a single pitch he decided not to swing at. It's not that I have an issue with being critical of Mauer, it's just that in this instance it seems pretty contrived and petty.

 

To me second guessing which pitches a hitter as good as Mauer decides to swing at or not doesn't have a lot of credibility considering his overall body of work.

Maybe not burned at the stake, but there have been a few zingers tossed in this thread, no?

 

From my perspective, one discussion is centered not on one PA, but on a lack of power, which I think hurts his production and therefore the team, and his perceived unwillingness to try to change that...despite my belief he could. Some cite this one PA as one example. I think it's a fair example, although I would prefer to cite something like his extreme reluctance to swing early in counts.

 

I do believe great hitters alter their approach in some ABs based on the needs of the team at the time. Down three, with two out and two on, in the bottom of the last inning, is an obvious example of such a situation, particularly for a hitter often cited as a HOFer...I believe he should be looking for a pitch to hit over the fence, and if he gets it, should take a shot at the RF bleachers. It's fair to say he often lets such pitches in such situations go by. Some cite this particular PA as an example.

 

Obviously he'll sometimes make an out by doing so. I would never criticize him for trying. I think it's a fair criticism that he seems reluctant to try.

[Dman]

I'm too lazy to go look it up, but if memory serves, the math nerds have calculated a single to be worth something like 25 percent more than a walk. The primary difference is in the extra bases for base runners that can result from a single. Base runners can't go first to third, or score from second, on a walk, but often do on a single. A ball in play also has a small chance of resulting in an error that can further advance the hitter or base runner(s).

 

Extra base hits multiply that effect.

 

As to "the idea" of offense, I think it's to score runs. Taking pitches is one method that may advance your chances, but it's not the goal.

 

 

Yeah I thought about it more after I posted and there is the chance for the extra base hit or single that would score the runner from second base which a walk would not do. The trouble with Joe though is we are really talking about a single or a double as the most likely outcome since HR and triples are rare for him.

 

The problem I have though is that not all singles would be a better result than a walk. A first pitch single with no runners on would be worth less than a 6 pitch walk in my opinion. I haven't done the math though so I could be out to lunch on that thought. Maybe if all things being equal it is better for example a 6 pitch walk or 6 pitch single. I just don't feel like that formula takes everything into consideration.

[Guest USAFChief]

Of course you can. No one said you can't . But you're not the audience we're talking about. Those who exaggerate his deficiencies and diminish his contributions contrary to science are. You started to go there when you analyzed a single at bat as a paradigm case of his deficiencies. I don't think it's all that helpful to look at one at bat in which the team is down by three runs and down to its last out as all that instructive. Especially his second walk of the day in which he went 2-5 with an RBI.

 

Pick a larger sample. Look at tendencies. But most of all, put it into context. Even the best hitters make an out 60% of the time. The fact that Mauer has a better percentage than the best hitters almost every year, and from the catching position is not a sign of weakness. It's a sign of strength. So he's not a home run hitter. Many of the all-time greats weren't either.

 

The Twins ruined their relationship with Rod Carew by insisting that he hit homers. So one year he swung for the fences a lot, struck out more than normal, and had his other numbers suffered. They were more critical of him after the second year (as were the fan), and traded him. Mauer is similar. You can add homers, but you'll make him more strikeout prone and he'll roll over more balls to second. His OBP will drop below .400 and he'll be less productive overall.

 

It's a zero sum game. Stop trying to fix what is not broken. Start appreciating the history you are witnessing. That is all.

1. Mauer did not have an RBI yesterday.

 

2. "Contrary to science?" Please.

 

3. A larger sample like the data above showing Mauer to be the least

likely player in MLB over the past 25 years to swing 0-0?

 

4. Carew's relationship with the Twins had nothing to do with homers. It had lots to do with money and Calvin's racism.

 

5. As noted above, you have no idea if trying to hit for more power would seriously lower his OBP. You're speculating, as am I. It's worth noting, however, a couple data points: many great hitters hit for both power and OBP, and more importantly Mauer's best career OBP year came in the year he posted his highest SLG. His second best OBP came in the year he posted his second best SLG.

 

It would seem if anything, perhaps the idea that increasing his slugging will decrease his OBP is contrary to science, or at least contrary to history.

[Dman]

That situation aside, a single is more valuable in general when considering only the offensive outcome. It moves non-consecutive baserunners and exploits the possibility of error.

 

But the tangible cumulative effect that walks have on starters in the age of hard pitch counts can be devastating. Math avoiders, avert your eyes:

 

Pitches/IP = 7.626 (K%) + 15.678 (BB%) + 13.518

 

It's from Fangraphs, not the Bureau of Weights and Measures, but the methodology looks sound and it makes intuitive sense: If a starter walks lots of guys, pitch count will catch up to him even if runs allowed doesn't.

 

Putting Mauer into the equation, his walk rate means that on average, a lineup of nine Mauers means the opposing starter will throw two more pitches per inning than if he put the ball in play. Big deal, right?

 

Except that two more pitches per inning means that the average starter probably leaves the game an inning sooner. That's huge.

 

Yes, I get that Mauer isn't single-handedly chasing starters. But adding to opposing starter pitch counts is a valuable and tangible skill.

 

Thanks I should have read that before I posted again. I am learning new things in this thread. There is a lot more math in this game than I ever figured there would be.

[Craig Arko]

1. Mauer did not have an RBI yesterday.

 

2. "Contrary to science?" Please.

 

3. A larger sample like the data above showing Mauer to be the least

likely player in MLB over the past 25 years to swing 0-0?

 

4. Carew's relationship with the Twins had nothing to do with homers. It had lots to do with money and Calvin's racism.

 

5. As noted above, you have no idea if trying to hit for more power would seriously lower his OBP. You're speculating, as am I. It's worth noting, however, a couple data points: many great hitters hit for both power and OBP, and more importantly Mauer's best career OBP year came in the year he posted his highest SLG. His second best OBP came in the year he posted his second best SLG.

 

It would seem if anything, perhaps the idea that increasing his slugging will decrease his OBP is contrary to science, or at least contrary to history.

 

Of course, you and I and everyone else posting in this thread aren't going to increase or decrease diddly; only Joe can do that. The same Joe that still may be recovering from a recent head injury. There is science involved there as well, and that has been singularly ignored by just about everybody here, on either side of the coin.

[cmathewson]

The first part; I think Calvin behaving like a 19th century plantation owner had something to do with it, too.

 

As for the second, I don't see that as true at all. Improvement in one area does not require diminishment in another to offset the gain.

 

I don't think it's necessarily a zero sum game. But in Mauer's case, I think it is. He's 31. He's tried a lot of different ways to increase his power production. None of them have produced more results than his usual approach. Most of them led to slumps. 2009 was an aberration, fueled by an incredible May in which he hit like 12 homers into the first row to left field in the Dome. Target will never let him get there. More likely, it will frustrate his attempts to hit homers. So I'm content to let him have an OBP of .420 without complaint, and let the other numbers take care of themselves. I always hope for more, but I don't expect it.

[cmathewson]

1. Mauer did not have an RBI yesterday.

 

2. "Contrary to science?" Please.

 

[/Quote]

 

"Mauer just hits bloops." "He has no interest in driving in runs when it counts." "He looks frail, like he could break at any time." "He lacks leadership." Bah. All of those opinions lack evidence.

 

When he takes a hack at the first pitch, it's because it's straight and right down the middle. Of course he hits well in those cases. But they are exceedingly rare. OBP's relationship to runs scored is as close to science as there is in baseball.

 

4. Carew's relationship with the Twins had nothing to do with homers. It had lots to do with money and Calvin's racism.

[/Quote]

 

You're opinion. Calvin's racism had something to do with it. But every year, salary negotiations with Calvin focused on why he thought he shouldn't pay the guy as much as he deserves. In short, they focused on the negative. After one of the years he won the batting title, Calvin proposed a pay cut because he wasn't hitting enough homers. So Carew went into camp the next year with the mission to hit more homers. "I'll show you." was the attitude. It didn't work. You doubt this story? Read the archives.

 

5. As noted above, you have no idea if trying to hit for more power would seriously lower his OBP. You're speculating, as am I. It's worth noting, however, a couple data points: many great hitters hit for both power and OBP, and more importantly Mauer's best career OBP year came in the year he posted his highest SLG. His second best OBP came in the year he posted his second best SLG.

 

It would seem if anything, perhaps the idea that increasing his slugging will decrease his OBP is contrary to science, or at least contrary to history.

 

I am not speculating. They would interview him, and he would say he was trying to pull the ball more. I'd watch his progress. He would regress into a string of 4-6-3s. Then he'd go back into the cage and start looking to drive it to the opposite field, and he'd start hitting again. It's kind of the story of his career. His 0-12 to start the year is the most recent case in point. I knew he was close to breaking out of that slump when he lined out to left field twice in one game. Since then, he's hit .400.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I do believe great hitters alter their approach in some ABs based on the needs of the team at the time.

 

I believe this is far less frequent that you imply. It is very difficult to perfect pitch recognition and swing mechanics -- not unlike pitcher mechanics, really. I might guess too that "great hitters" vary their approach and swings even less than mediocre hitters -- the risk of losing what works for them (and what has already made them "great") is probably greater than any possible marginal benefit.

 

I am sure batters have different expectations based on pitcher, count, situation, etc., but that probably affects more what they look for, rather than how they swing. And for some hitters (perhaps Mauer), even what they look for and when they swing might be a necessary part of the routine to be effective.

 

Just because Mauer is a great hitter doesn't mean he can simply will himself to be better, or even just arbitrarily trade a little OBP for SLG.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Can I add a reason to like Mauer? He chose baseball over football. (Yeah, baseball offered the more immediate payday, but he still made the choice.)

 

Not only that, from ages 14-30 at least, he chose the most "baseball" of baseball positions: catcher. I know some have said he could have played more/longer at other positions, but you gotta admit, it's pretty cool he chose to be the unglamorous, always-crouching catcher, even long after his hitting talent would have allowed him to choose almost any other position on the field.

[Craig Arko]

Just because Mauer is a great hitter doesn't mean he can simply will himself to be better, or even just arbitrarily trade a little OBP for SLG.

 

Maybe people want him to start taking PEDs. Then our team can make national headlines too.

[kblack1011]

http://www.twinsdaily.com/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by USAFChief http://www.twinsdaily.com/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png

4. Carew's relationship with the Twins had nothing to do with homers. It had lots to do with money and Calvin's racism.

 

 

 

You're opinion. Calvin's racism had something to do with it. But every year, salary negotiations with Calvin focused on why he thought he shouldn't pay the guy as much as he deserves. In short, they focused on the negative. After one of the years he won the batting title, Calvin proposed a pay cut because he wasn't hitting enough homers. So Carew went into camp the next year with the mission to hit more homers. "I'll show you." was the attitude. It didn't work. You doubt this story? Read the archives.

 

Not sure where you get the "It didn't work", I believe Carew had his 3 largest home run total during that time and increased his RBI from 50's into 80,90 & 100. Looks like he showed Calvin he could.

[TheLeviathan]

Just because Mauer is a great hitter doesn't mean he can simply will himself to be better, or even just arbitrarily trade a little OBP for SLG.

 

Well, he could certainly will himself to try a bit more often. I think that's the crux of the issue.

 

If had spent a stretch trying, failing, and went back to what worked - ok. But part of the issue people have with him is his staunch refusal to break his strict tendencies no matter what the situation/role dictates. As someone who thinks he gets criticized too much for being an elite hitter....I'd be lying if that didn't irk me. And it does seem to be irking me more as his career goes on and his role has expanded.