Trevor May - 2014

[gunnarthor]

May came here in the Ben Revere trade along with Vance Worley. The right hander has the size you'd want in a pitcher - 6'5" and 220 lbs. He's been extremely durable and thrown 150 innings each of the last 3 seasons and 135 in the one before that. At his best, he profiles to be a innings eating #3 type starter. He had a long season last year but managed to pitch another 15 innings or so in the AFL.

 

May has the stuff to be a starter but his results haven't always been great. His numbers in AA have been ok - he strikes out a ton of guys but he walks a bunch too. Jason Parks, Baseball Prospectus main prospect guru, has said that May "frustrates the hell" out of him. Klaw has noted that he "pitches small" and has a low release point. His command can be shaky at times. But those are mechanical issues that can be fixed. His first year in the Twins system saw his walk rate fall from 12% to 10% while his strike out rate increased from 22% to 24%. He also saw a big drop in home runs allowed. His era last year was hurt by shaky defense - opponents had a .330 avg in balls in play. With a bit more luck, his era might have been more in line with his fip (which was 13th in the EL among starting pitchers).

 

May starts the year in AAA and will (most likely) be one of the first arms called up. I tend to think that May is underrated but he might never be a "traditional" Twins pitcher. He's going to give up some walks. But he has the frame and durability to pitch around it and still be a 200 inning guy.

[Terry]

Frankly, May's game sounds refreshing even if it is still too raw. The "not a traditional Twins pitcher" sounds great to me. I've grown weary of all these pitch-to-contact guys that I'm excited to see a young wild thing come up in the system. Hopefully not too wild though.

[tobi0040]

Frankly, May's game sounds refreshing even if it is still too raw. The "not a traditional Twins pitcher" sounds great to me. I've grown weary of all these pitch-to-contact guys that I'm excited to see a young wild thing come up in the system. Hopefully not too wild though.

 

His numbers last year were really dinged by two lousy starts (8 ER in each). I calculated his numbers sans those two starts, in the other 26 starts he had a 3.75 ERA with over a K per inning. He had 3-4 starts with no runs allowed. Something like 13 with 0, 1, or 2 ER.

 

If you back out his worst two starts from 2012, his ERA drops 4.25 or so. Many point to the fact that he repeated AA and only went from 4.80 to 4.55 or something like that. In 90% of his starts, he went from 4.25 to 3.75, which is quite an improvement.

[Mr. Brooks]

His numbers last year were really dinged by two lousy starts (8 ER in each). I calculated his numbers sans those two starts, in the other 26 starts he had a 3.75 ERA with over a K per inning. He had 3-4 starts with no runs allowed. Something like 13 with 0, 1, or 2 ER.

 

If you back out his worst two starts from 2012, his ERA drops 4.25 or so. Many point to the fact that he repeated AA and only went from 4.80 to 4.55 or something like that. In 90% of his starts, he went from 4.25 to 3.75, which is quite an improvement.

 

That may be true, but if you are going to do that then you also need to remove everyone elses 2 worst starts of the season. So, in comparison to his peers, fudging the numbers in that way probably doesn't change a whole lot.

 

I'm hoping that he can at the very least develop into a back of the bullpen arm for years to come, and obviously if he can hit that hard throwing middle of the rotation ceiling it would be a great bonus.

[tobi0040]

While true that every pitchers ERA would improve, not every pitcher had 16 ER in 2 starts. Compared with the year prior, he had a much bigger spread after removing his two worse starts.

 

This type of analysis can be useful. So you lose 2 of his 28 starts for sure, but then get a 3.75 ERA in the other 26. That is a pretty good pitcher.

 

His control issues look much better as well, as those two starts had a ton of BB's. His BB per 9, which everyone points to went from 3.5 to just a hair over 3 if you remove those two starts.

[Chance]

May is having a great start tonight. 8 Ks throw 5 with no walks! Hopefully he can add one more inning.

[John Kelsey]

May is having a great start tonight. 8 Ks throw 5 with no walks! Hopefully he can add one more inning.

 

Bravo Trevor, very encouraging!

[gunnarthor]

Yep, looks like his night is over. 5 ip, 3 hits (triple and two singles), no walks and 8 strike outs. He also got 3 ground ball outs against two fly ball outs. He'll get a no-decision because the bullpen immediately blew the lead. He threw 84 pitches in those 5 innings which is a little high but that's just nitpicking at this point. (I think he's got the build to throw 110 pitches if needed without much concern). Anyhow, really nice first start of the season.

[Briley]

May is having a great start tonight. 8 Ks throw 5 with no walks! Hopefully he can add one more inning.

 

Mmmmmm I like the sound of that!

[Twins Fan From Afar]

Just to build on the other comments on his really solid start tonight -- he was also 10/18 in first pitch strikes (55.5%), and 51/84 (60.7%) overall.

Not sure why, but I'm obsessive about May and his ability to work ahead:

 

http://twinsfanfromafar.blogspot.com/2014/03/trevor-may-and-first-pitch-strikes.html

[zakprior]

That may be true, but if you are going to do that then you also need to remove everyone elses 2 worst starts of the season. So, in comparison to his peers, fudging the numbers in that way probably doesn't change a whole lot.

 

I'm hoping that he can at the very least develop into a back of the bullpen arm for years to come, and obviously if he can hit that hard throwing middle of the rotation ceiling it would be a great bonus.

 

Personally I quite like this look at May. What it means is that he in a 30 start season with the twins he might give up 2 or 3 games in which he gives up a ton of runs, whilst that inflates his ERA it means in 27 games he will be competitive. As such, three almost guaranteed loses, but 27 games in which the team is given an excellent chance to win. I would take that.

[gunnarthor]

Trevor May didn't have a great start yesterday against the Red Sox AAA team. 4.1, 5 h (all singles), 4er, 4k, 2bb. He did have 4 ground outs against one fly ball out so maybe he was unlucky.

[positive1]

04/20/2014 | May on the cusp of realizing his dream

Trevor May fired six one-hit innings to earn his first Triple-A win on Sunday as Rochester beat Syracuse, 9-3. His next phone call could see the Twins prospect pitching in the Major Leagues.

 

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140420&content_id=72780026&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp&sid=milb

[positive1]

Trevor May on the cusp of realizing his dream

Twins prospect fires six one-hit innings, earns first Triple-A win

 

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140420&content_id=72780026&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb

[gunnarthor]

We lost some of the discussion on here last week but Trevor had another outstanding outing last night - 6ip, 3h, 1bb, 11k 104 pitches. He also managed to get more ground balls than fly balls. In 5 starts, he's only had one real dud (his second start wasn't as bad as the numbers suggested). He's walking 3 BB/9 and has a 11.5 k/9. Opponents are batting .179/.240/.279 off of him.

 

We need a little more consistency from him but it's quite possible that he'll be up before Meyer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm skeptical that we'll see him before Meyer. I think the Twins are going to want to see more than six innings per start in AAA before he gets the call.

 

Either way, it's hard not to like what he's done thus far.

[gunnarthor]

I'm skeptical that we'll see him before Meyer. I think the Twins are going to want to see more than six innings per start in AAA before he gets the call.

 

Either way, it's hard not to like what he's done thus far.

 

I think Meyer is more likely to be held back for Super 2 status than May. And May probably won't be on any sort of innings limit than Meyer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Good point about the innings limit. Forgot about that.

[Mike Sixel]

Gotta admit, May is significantly increasing my hope for him. His progress would be great news for the Twins.

[tobi0040]

We lost some of the discussion on here last week but Trevor had another outstanding outing last night - 6ip, 3h, 1bb, 11k 104 pitches. He also managed to get more ground balls than fly balls. In 5 starts, he's only had one real dud (his second start wasn't as bad as the numbers suggested). He's walking 3 BB/9 and has a 11.5 k/9. Opponents are batting .179/.240/.279 off of him.

 

We need a little more consistency from him but it's quite possible that he'll be up before Meyer.

 

Good call on his second start. Overall he has had 23 base runners and 12 of them have scored. So his stranded rate is just terrible. If he keeps these numbers anywhere near where they are his ERA comes down dramatically over the year:

 

11.5 K per 9

5.5 H per 9

3 BB per 9

 

His career stranded rate is a little over 70%. If you apply that rate to this year, he has 7 ER instead of 12. That is why his FIP is 2.36

[Brock Beauchamp]

One thing that worries me is that hit rate. I don't see how it's sustainable, as his average against is under .200, IIRC.

[tobi0040]

One thing that worries me is that hit rate. I don't see how it's sustainable, as his average against is under .200, IIRC.

 

That is unsustainable, but I think if the LOB% stabilizes as well it more than offsets that. He has an LOB% of over 70% in his career and is at 51% now. So even if his H per 9 goes from 4.9 to 8 or so (about his average) and only 28-29% score he should be OK.

[gunnarthor]

One thing that worries me is that hit rate. I don't see how it's sustainable, as his average against is under .200, IIRC.

 

He'll give up a few more hits but we're also in ridiculously small sample sizes yet. If he had given up 10 more hits, his h/9 would be well over 9, instead of 5.5. With May, the big issue will always be control - if he's walking 1 batter for every three he's striking out, we're ok. He's going to eat innings, he's durable. He'll give up some hits and he projects as a solid middle of the rotation arm. His best seasons might be sort of like a healthy Aaron Harang type season.

[gunnarthor]

And Trevor did an interview for Twins Daily: http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/2936-Ten-Questions-with-Trevor-May

[Brock Beauchamp]

He'll give up a few more hits but we're also in ridiculously small sample sizes yet. If he had given up 10 more hits, his h/9 would be well over 9, instead of 5.5. With May, the big issue will always be control - if he's walking 1 batter for every three he's striking out, we're ok. He's going to eat innings, he's durable. He'll give up some hits and he projects as a solid middle of the rotation arm. His best seasons might be sort of like a healthy Aaron Harang type season.

 

Absolutely, I was just pointing out that his hit rate is padding his stats a bit... Like you said, his walk rate is the key. He has always missed bats but if he's walking 3-3.5 per 9, he should be okay.

[gunnarthor]

May outpitched Bauer last night and on the season is now 2-3 4.11era, 35 ip, 41K, 13 walks 2 HR. His era could be a bit lower with some better defense/luck. The control though is the thing and that looks good. Right now his rate stats are 10.5 k/9, 3.3 bb/9 and 3.15 k/bb - all excellent numbers for us. He's striking out nearly 30% of the batters he's faced and walking only 9%. Right now, he's actually outpitching Alex Meyer. He doesn't have Meyer's ceiling but it's looking more likely that he can be a solid innings eating #3 type.

[Brock Beauchamp]

May is doing well in all the stats that matter. In MiLB ball, I don't feel ERA should be much of a consideration.

 

I'm hoping he keeps it up and we see him in Minnesota by early June. Let Meyer work on the changeup for a bit and promote May in his place.

[gunnarthor]

I should also point out that his GO/AO is 0.74 but I honestly don't know if that's a good number or not. His home runs though are down this year.

[Mike Frasier Law]

I am more excited about May than most, I think. And his numbers are not only great - they're trending in the right direction.

 

k/9 has gone from 9.08 in 2012 to 9.94 in 2013 (AA) to 10.54 this year.

bb/9 has gone from 4.69 in 2012 to 3.98 in 2013 to 3.34 this year.

Anyone have stats on his gb%? I couldn't find it anywhere.

[gunnarthor]

May had a pretty good night tonight - 8ip (107 pitches), 0 runs, 4 hits (3 singles and a triple), 4 walks, 6 strike outs. May faced only 3 batters in 5 of the 8 innings.