Article: Big Question Remains: Will Twins Lineup Score Runs?

[Parker Hageman]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2789-Big-Question-Remains-Will-Twins-Lineup-Score-Runs

[JB_Iowa]

Psst ... Parker, you've been down there a long time. It's still Saturday (2nd paragraph).

[JB_Iowa]

"I see a lot of different lineups nowadays and I’ve been reading into it a little bit more, talking to our people -- it can come up interesting sometimes.”

 

Good article I do find it interesting that he is using the analytics team a little more.

 

It is just really hard to see where runs are going to come from unless Willingham and Kubel really get on track. To me, that's the difference between being semi-respectable and dismal.

[Craig Arko]

Yup, the veteran big boppers need to bop big.

[Old Twins Cap]

Wow, great article. Nice to have the inside view of Ron Gardenhire's mind. And this:

 

“Believe me, I love to look at numbers,” he said in his Hammond Stadium office. “I’ve always been into numbers, I go with match-ups and all these things, I also believe in a starting lineup trying to put a consistent lineup down. But I use match-ups all the time. I’ve been a little more old school as far as the lineup, one-two-three, that type of thing, they way I grew up playing ball and these things. I see a lot of different lineups nowadays and I’ve been reading into it a little bit more, talking to our people -- it can come up interesting sometimes.”

 

I hope Twins FO looks at numbers, too. Like wins and losses. Gardenhire may not be the problem, but he is certainly not the solution.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Yup, the veteran big boppers need to bop big.

 

In my mind it will not depend on Hammer or Kubel, but on the young guys: Arcia, Dozier, Hicks etc. If those guys get on track we could score enough to win some games with our likely better pitching.

[Seth Stohs]

I tend to agree with Gardy. Aside from Mauer, how many hitters in the lineup do we really know about? I mean, I think Willingham and Kubel will provide some power in the middle of the lineup. I believe in Oswaldo Arcia's all-around offense. I think Trevor Plouffe will be OK. I think Hicks will eventually be a top of the order type of guy. And I like Gardy's confidence in Dozier. Not sure about the .300, but maybe .280-.290 with a .340ish OBP is feasible. Suzuki is what Gardy says he is, takes some pitches, puts the ball in play. And, Florimon is fine in the #1 spot. I think it's fair to say that lineup construction goes into the season in a state of flux. Could be a lot of lineups early in the season. Hopefully a few guys step up!

[RiggityRez]

I am hoping for big things from Arcia. I truly believe he can become a Cuddyer type of producer sooner rather than later, and maybe better down the road.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Thanks Parker, really insightful. I hope I get to be someone who says "Wow, that worked"

[stringer bell]

I am hoping for big things from Arcia. I truly believe he can become a Cuddyer type of producer sooner rather than later, and maybe better down the road.

I think he can be a much better hitter than Cuddyer. Really needs to make contact more often.

[cmathewson]

It certainly was a rough spring for most of the regulars. Even Mauer finished at .280 or something.Hicks was the only bright spot, and he spent most of spring trying to win a job by alternating with Presley. Those with jobs seemed like they were just trying to get their swings in. They didn't look like they had a plan up there. Let's hope when the bell rings, they find another gear.

[Jim H]

It is hard to read too much into spring stats. So much of what is going on is not really apparent in the stats. The batting practices are much more intense and contain much more than what would happen during the regular season. If a guy needs 20 minutes of live pitching with a guy using all his pitches like he might during the regular season, well you can get that. For much of the spring training games a regular is maybe getting 2 or 3 AB's against pitchers who probably are more working on stuff, rather than working on the batter. While you would think that would help the batters, it probably doesn't all the time because you are not seeing usual patterns of pitching from a lot of the pitchers.

 

Even though the end of spring training is more like regular season games, it still doesn't mean anything, and doesn't generally carry the same type of intensity you should find in a regular season game. So while there should be concern over the offense, it is certainly possible there is a little too much concern. I also agree with the idea that if the offense is going to be greatly improved over last year, it is likely to come from the younger guys like Arcia, Plouffe, Dozier, Hicks and Pinto.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Agree with Jim H.

 

I'm much more optimistic on the Twins lineup than most. But it all hinges on the younger guys for me.

 

...TLDR: YES we will score some runs.

 

I've been doing some rough comparing of the core young guys from the 1999-2000 group, to the core young guys currently in our system who already have some MLB experience: Hicks, Dozier, Pinto, Parmelee, a few others. (Not the Sano Buxton guys who are clearly superior to either group.)

 

While in the minors, these two groups posted virtually identical numbers to each other. The earlier group hit for slightly higher average, but this group has put up a clear higher OBP -- the Moneyball effect on drafting in the last dozen years?

 

But the current group has really stalled out when brought to the majors, compared to the earlier group.

 

That said, I expect development from Hicks this year, power from Arcia, and something decent from Pinto. That is good they made the team and have a chance to play from the start. Still, I would have liked to see the rest of the younger guys make it too.

 

There are some striking comparisons between Parmelee and Hunter. (I don't have their detailed high school scouting projections, I'm just going off of bbref.) As minor leaguers, Parmelee outhit Hunter, but Hunter was brought through the system faster. It was sometime in Torii's 2nd or 3rd full season in the majors when he really became a solid hitter, and this is roughly where we are at with Parmelee. The Parmelee/Hunter example is just one. So I really don't agree when I read about how bad our current prospects are, when if you actually compare their minor league numbers, they size up the same or better than the group of prospects that took us to the ALCS in 2002.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if we see a hot streak from a couple guys, where maybe Hicks and Arcia are raking at the same time and getting moved into the 2-3 spots for a few games, or something like that. Hey if it's spring, a guy (or gal) can hope.

[Riverbrian]

When I look at the lineup.

 

1. After Joe Mauer... I don't see any player who can or are expected to or have at one time hit around .300 or produced a high OPS.

 

My conclusion... Stringing a few together is more difficult and less likely to happen.

 

2. Hicks, Dozier and Florimon have some speed but that's it. But... Those three speedsters are not elite speedsters. The other 6 players in the lineup can be classified as below below average. Mauer can turn it on a little maybe but speed isn't on his resume.

 

My conclusion... The creation of runs on the base paths... Extra bases, hit and runs, the occasional theft has becomes nearly impossible. Especially when 6 of your starters are station to station types.

 

3. Willingham and Kubel have hit 30 homers. Plouffe almost did it and might have if it wasn't for injury. Arcia has the potential to be a 30 homer guy. Colabello... Maybe with playing time. Pinto can hit a few out with playing time. Dozier showed decent power for a 2B. Hicks has some pop... Even Florimon and Escobar can reach the seats.

 

My conclusion... This is it... Nearly all offensive eggs are in this basket. This is how the roster was constructed. Its one dimensional and it was the same in 2013. 2013 didn't work... It wasn't even close to working. For 2014... They didn't add any new dimensions... They didn't attempt to balance... To create new dimensions or different ways to score... They added more Power!!!

 

They replaced Doumit for Pinto... They replaced Morneau with Suzuki... They replaced Presley/Mastroianni/Parmelee with Kubel.

 

The entire dice roll is on Hammer and Kubel rebounding and Plouffe and Arcia realizing potential. The entire dice roll is power in Target Field.

 

I'm concerned but the Big Mo can change everything.

[ND-Fan]

The Twins this preseason has been lack of hitting from Willingham and Kubel with runner in scoring position, The last several games Willingham has come up with men on in scoring position and has not even been able to make contact or has had made final out of the inning. If the Twins are going to score runs its got to get RBI production out 3 and 4 hitters and so far this spring who ever Guardy put in that position has failed to deliver. I hope Willingham gets it figured out how to get out this slump and returns to near normal line on his Batting Average and OBS or we are in great trouble. I think Kubel was showing he can still hit and I expect he will return to near baseline hitting performance. The fear I have is Willingham looks like he has lost his ability to turn on the ball he just looks slow and showing his age like his legs are not there to hit the ball. It appears Dozier, Mauer, Pinto, Hicks and Plouffe are hitting the ball and when they start playing regularly there numbers will be there. Arcia is to early to tell but he looks like he could become force before season is over. Then you have Flormin and Suzuki that are playing because of what they can do on the field. If Twins are going to have any success Willingham and Kubel are going to need to start producing. Collabella I think is going to be surprise in that he's going hit and be much better bench player than anyone thinks. Everyone keeps underestimating him nobody thought he could make out independent leagues and then when he signed to minor league contract everyone thought it such waste to sign someone his age to play in minors and now he is at Major Leagues with same thing being said and if he stays healthy he may just like said surprise everyone again. If not nothing been hurt he's not blocking anyone down at triple A or Double A either at this time because they sure wouldn't want young prospect sitting on bench getting limited number at bats and not being able to develop their skills.

[Willihammer]

Is it safe to say that Goin talked Gardy out of putting Suzuki in the 2 hole?

[Shane Wahl]

The problem is that I think Gardenhire's desire to have lineups pretty much set in stone is precisely the opposite of what needs to happen with this current group. Joe Mauer should be batting second and I see no way of getting around that. Currently, this means Dozier should be leading off, even though this is not at all ideal.

 

Against righties, I would probably go Dozier-Mauer-Arcia (yes)-Willingham-Kubel-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki/Pinto-Florimon, and against lefties Dozier-Mauer-Willingham-Plouffe-Hicks-Arcia-Colabello-Pinto-Florimon

 

I think Dozier's bat will improve a bit, and that bit will be in average and thus OBP, so that isn't too terrible. Arcia is huge here. If he is struggling, the lineup could get weird.

[TheDean]

Against righties, I would probably go Dozier-Mauer-Arcia (yes)-Willingham-Kubel-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki/Pinto-Florimon, and against lefties Dozier-Mauer-Willingham-Plouffe-Hicks-Arcia-Colabello-Pinto-Florimon

I like those lineups, but I would really like to see Escobar get starts at SS against lefties. I can take Florimon's .661 OPS against righties from last year, especially with his defense, but last year he put up .459 against LHP. Even though I get the feeling that Gardy doesn't like playing the platoon game, it'd be nice for Florimon to get off days vs. lefties.

The sample sizes aren't too big for either Escobar or Florimon, but both seem to have pretty significant platoon splits considering they're switch hitters.

[Jim H]

Rather than Mauer batting 2nd, I would prefer to see Hicks and Dozier in the 1st 2 spots, at least as the season goes along. I like Mauer in the 3rd spot, if you have somebody to hit in front of him. I don't know what to expect from Willingham and Kubel, but you hope they get off to decent starts so the younger guys can bat lower in the lineup during early part of the season. Maybe Arcia can bat 3rd or 4th eventually, but he needs to lower the SO rate, maybe make a little better contact. He doesn't have to hit or try to hit home runs all the time. The key is still the young guys, they should eventually lengthen the number of productive bats in the lineup, maybe even forcing Willingham and Kubel lower down or out of the lineup entirely.

[TheLeviathan]

maybe even forcing Willingham and Kubel lower down or out of the lineup entirely.

 

Who are they being replaced by exactly?

 

The offense is a huge question because there are too many questions about the players in it to even enumerate.

[jokin]

The entire dice roll is on Hammer and Kubel rebounding and Plouffe and Arcia realizing potential.

 

Uhh, good points RB, but the Twins are also heavily betting on rolling a "Hard 8" (get it? CF?) that last year for Hicks was wildly anomalous-

....and that now, literally, their only CFer, who will have to not only hit well above the Mendoza line, but, without another quality OF defender on the roster- will also have to carry the defensive weight for the entire OF- every single inning....of every game....

[jokin]

Is it safe to say that Goin talked Gardy out of putting Suzuki in the 2 hole?

 

Based on today's batting order? Nope.

 

Maybe Gardy really does want to simplify things and have the #2 position player always bat "2" and the #3 position player always bat "3":

 

[TABLE]

Batters

AB

R

H

RBI

BB

SO

LOB

AVG

Dozier, 2B

[TD=align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center].232[/TD]

1- Michael, PR-2B

[TD=align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center].500[/TD]

Suzuki, K, C

[TD=align: center]3[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center].200[/TD]

4- Pinto, C

[TD=align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]3[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center].286[/TD]

Mauer, 1B

[TD=align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center].271[/TD]

2- Colabello, PR-1B

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center].349[/TD]

Willingham, LF

[TD=align: center]3[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=align: center].068[/TD]

Escobar, E, LF

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center].279[/TD]

Kubel, DH

[TD=align: center]3[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center].196[/TD]

3- Harrison, PR-DH

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center].000[/TD]

Plouffe, 3B

[TD=align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center].269[/TD]

Pettersen, 3B

[TD=align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center].000[/TD]

Arcia, O, RF

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center].250[/TD]

Walker, RF

[TD=align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.000[/TD]

Hicks, CF

[TD=align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=align: center].327[/TD]

Bartlett, CF

[TD=align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center].093[/TD]

Florimon, SS

[TD=align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center].185[/TD]

Goodrum, SS

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0[/TD]

[TD=align: center].000[/TD]

[TR=class: totals]

Totals

[TD=align: center]33[/TD]

[TD=align: center]7[/TD]

[TD=align: center]9[/TD]

[TD=align: center]6[/TD]

[TD=align: center]5[/TD]

[TD=align: center]6[/TD]

[TD=align: center]12[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[jokin]

The problem is that I think Gardenhire's desire to have lineups pretty much set in stone is precisely the opposite of what needs to happen with this current group. Joe Mauer should be batting second and I see no way of getting around that. Currently, this means Dozier should be leading off, even though this is not at all ideal.

 

Against righties, I would probably go Dozier-Mauer-Arcia (yes)-Willingham-Kubel-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki/Pinto-Florimon, and against lefties Dozier-Mauer-Willingham-Plouffe-Hicks-Arcia-Colabello-Pinto-Florimon

 

I think Dozier's bat will improve a bit, and that bit will be in average and thus OBP, so that isn't too terrible. Arcia is huge here. If he is struggling, the lineup could get weird.

 

It can't be weirder than having Suzuki bat in the two-hole.

[LaBombo]

Answer: Yes, the Twins will score runs. Dozens of them. Perhaps even several hundred!

 

Sorry. Seriously, they'll be bad, just not in 2010 Mariners territory. Unless the wheels come off the wagon they won't be noticeably worse than last year.

[Reider]

Yeah, they'll score runs, but not enough unless the young guys improve and the veterans put up good numbers.

 

Ideally it would be nice if Hicks could get it together at the major league level, so we have a decent lead off hitter.

[highlander]

I really think Hicks is going to provide a boost. Possibly batting fifth or sixth. I like Ossie but Hicks will have the better year!! Love Mauer in the two hole, but that opens up other problems in a young and weak line up. By the end of the year I expect Florimon to hit in the .250 range with double digit big flys. If Willingham doesn't hit Buxton could be up sooner than projected, but i think Parmalee would get first shot. Watch Hicks is going to be HUGE this year.

[clutterheart]

Yeah, they'll score runs, but not enough unless the young guys improve and the veterans put up good numbers.

 

Ideally it would be nice if Hicks could get it together at the major league level, so we have a decent lead off hitter.

 

Our expectations for Hicks should be good defense hit around .250 and cut down on strike outs. His value to this team will not be his bat but his glove. Unfortunately the guys to his left and to his right are not going to do him any favors

[PopRiveter]

The answer at leadoff?

I gottit!

 

Trevor Plouffe.

 

I know you're thinking, "What? This commenter doesn't understand the tools a leadoff hitter needs to be successful."

Fair enough. Ignore that and consider this.

Trevor Plouffe with the bases empty=.255/.313/.459 with 34 bombs in 695 AB.

Trevor Plouffe with men on base=.220/.284/.348 with 14 wall-scrapers (likely wind-aided) in 531 AB.

 

That's like having Tom Brunansky in his prime when the bases are empty vs. Denny Hocking (in Pat Meares' prime) when anyone is on any base.

 

What do you think? Will Gardy be bold enough to eschew coventional baseball wisdom and properly leverage Mr. Plouffe's inability to hit with men on base?

If not, this could be a long season.

 

(Insert laughter and raucous applause as I respectfully drop the microphone and return to my seat)

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Uhh, good points RB, but the Twins are also heavily betting on rolling a "Hard 8" (get it? CF?) that last year for Hicks was wildly anomalous-

....and that now, literally, their only CFer, who will have to not only hit well above the Mendoza line, but, without another quality OF defender on the roster- will also have to carry the defensive weight for the entire OF- every single inning....of every game....

 

I agree. When the Twins cut Presley and Parms--that put the OF defense on Hicks. Too much pressure--with some combo of Kubel, Arcia, and Willingham in the corners--Hicks will have to cover everything. too much pressure. Take away any offensive pressure by batting him 8th or 9th and leave him there.

 

To me the big question is how many runs will the Twins OF defense give up by allowing gap hits (especially with a fly ball guy like Hughes on the mound). That means more than how many they score.

[LaBombo]

The answer at leadoff?

Will Gardy be bold enough to eschew coventional baseball wisdom and properly leverage Mr. Plouffe's inability to hit with men on base?

Bold enough? This is a guy who hangs from the dugout rail with a big wad of eschewing tobacco in his mouth, anxiously waiting for his next chance to give Jack Goin's advice a wedgey at recess.

 

But yeah, turn Plouffie loose at the top of the order. If there's a chance we've been holding back a Rickie Henderson minus the average, walks, steals and insufferable arrogance, let's roll the dice. And idea fail = higher draft pick, so win/win...