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Article: The Blizzard of Oz

mnfanforlife

By mnfanforlife
in Twins Daily Front Page News

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tjsyam921 Prep Ball

tjsyam921

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I am definitely a lot more excited to see what Arcia can do in the bigs than i am Hicks. Probably won't be a flashy defender, but his minor league stats would indicate a well rounded hitter. Sure he'll get the call after an injury or Morneau trade moving Parmelee to 1st.

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Brad Swanson First Round Pick

Brad Swanson

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I am definitely a lot more excited to see what Arcia can do in the bigs than i am Hicks. Probably won't be a flashy defender, but his minor league stats would indicate a well rounded hitter. Sure he'll get the call after an injury or Morneau trade moving Parmelee to 1st.

 

I'm really looking forward to watching both players. Hicks might not put up statistical seasons that make your eyes pop out, but his defense is going to be fantastic.

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mnfanforlife

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I'm really looking forward to watching both players. Hicks might not put up statistical seasons that make your eyes pop out, but his defense is going to be fantastic.

 

Yeah man...Hicks is going to be special. He keeps getting better at the plate and on the bases, and should be a real nice Major-League centerfielder

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ashbury Cooperstown

ashbury

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Hicks might not put up statistical seasons that make your eyes pop out, but his defense is going to be fantastic.

 

Basically echoing what others have said, the offensive bar for making my eyes pop is a lot lower for a centerfielder than for somebody on the corners. Span didn't have those numbers, but with 15-20 HR power he probably would have been around that threshold. Hicks could reach that, eventually.

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mnfanforlife Draft Eligible

mnfanforlife

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Basically echoing what others have said, the offensive bar for making my eyes pop is a lot lower for a centerfielder than for somebody on the corners. Span didn't have those numbers, but with 15-20 HR power he probably would have been around that threshold. Hicks could reach that, eventually.

 

If Hicks just gets a little bit better...you can imagine these offensive stats: .290 hitter, 100 Runs, 160 hits, 35 doubles, 10 triples, 25 homers, 35 stolen bases. Nice lead-off hitter with power. Think Shannon Stewart or better as a hitter, and Gold Glove potential defender.

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FrodaddyG College Ball

FrodaddyG

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If Hicks just gets a little bit better...you can imagine these offensive stats: .290 hitter, 100 Runs, 160 hits, 35 doubles, 10 triples, 25 homers, 35 stolen bases. Nice lead-off hitter with power. Think Shannon Stewart or better as a hitter, and Gold Glove potential defender.

That is significantly more than a "little bit" better than Hicks' best year.

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kab21 GCL Twins

kab21

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If Hicks just gets a little bit better...you can imagine these offensive stats: .290 hitter, 100 Runs, 160 hits, 35 doubles, 10 triples, 25 homers, 35 stolen bases. Nice lead-off hitter with power. Think Shannon Stewart or better as a hitter, and Gold Glove potential defender.

 

I think you just make stuff up when you do your projections. Hicks is a .271 career hitter with 30 HR's in 3.5 full season ball seasons.

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drjim Cedar Rapids Kernels

drjim

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If Hicks just gets a little bit better...you can imagine these offensive stats: .290 hitter, 100 Runs, 160 hits, 35 doubles, 10 triples, 25 homers, 35 stolen bases. Nice lead-off hitter with power. Think Shannon Stewart or better as a hitter, and Gold Glove potential defender.

 

I would temper the bombs and steals a bit but the rest is probably within range in a couple of years.

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mnfanforlife Draft Eligible

mnfanforlife

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Yeah, Hicks is getting better....slowly. He will hit for power, but maybe 25 HR's is a high projection for him. Every other number is pretty much what he did at NB. His hit/at-bat ratio was good last year, even though he has moved up a level after hitting .242

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kab21 GCL Twins

kab21

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That's kind of how projections work...you make them up. The only number that was a reach was the 25 HR's.

.290 isn't a reach despite the FACT that he has NEVER hit .290 in full season ball?

 

Your projections are nothing more than looking at a players ultimate upside and then adding some to it.

 

The only time that Hicks has posted halfway decent BA's were in seasons where he had high BAPIP's. Typically those high BAPIP's go away in the majors due to better defenders and field conditions. Hicks is more likely a .260's hitter since BA's in the majors are typically lower than the minors. This year I'm just hoping he hits .250 and I'm not very optimistic.

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mnfanforlife Draft Eligible

mnfanforlife

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.290 isn't a reach despite the FACT that he has NEVER hit .290 in full season ball?

 

Your projections are nothing more than looking at a players ultimate upside and then adding some to it.

 

The only time that Hicks has posted halfway decent BA's were in seasons where he had high BAPIP's. Typically those high BAPIP's go away in the majors due to better defenders and field conditions. Hicks is more likely a .260's hitter since BA's in the majors are typically lower than the minors. This year I'm just hoping he hits .250 and I'm not very optimistic.

 

Hicks hit .286 last year, and .290 isn't exactly "off-the-charts" as conceivable for Hicks in the big-leagues. I believe Hicks will have more hits/at-bats as he gets in to his late-20's and through his 30's....I stand by my projections, and I'm not afraid to be bold with my predictions. If you discredit my projections, then that is your right. I'm sorry that you're not very optimistic.

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mnfanforlife

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Another prospect, Miguel Sano, hit .258 last year....Yet, many pro-scouts project him to hit for a high average as he matures. Hicks' situation is not identical, but I like how he handled AA last year. Made a huge jump in hit/at-bat ratio from A+ to AA...why not expect him to maintain those numbers in AAA, and ultimately in MLB??

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Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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Hicks hit .286 last year, and .290 isn't exactly "off-the-charts" as conceivable for Hicks in the big-leagues. I believe Hicks will have more hits/at-bats as he gets in to his late-20's and through his 30's....I stand by my projections, and I'm not afraid to be bold with my predictions. If you discredit my projections, then that is your right. I'm sorry that you're not very optimistic.

 

Hicks hasn't hit .290 since rookie ball and isn't particularly young for his level. Is it impossible for him to hit .290? No, but it's extremely unlikely.

 

And that's fine. The guy has a bag full of tools, it's okay if one is slightly deficient. It's not about lack of optimism, it's about blind faith and near impossibilities. Hicks will be just fine at .275 or .280 because he gets on base all the friggin' time. No one is saying he'll be a bad player, they're just keeping their expectations reasonable.

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kab21 GCL Twins

kab21

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It's pretty clear that you haven't followed hardly any prospects from the minors to the majors. BA usually drops and it usually drops a lot. Throwing out a projection that is 4 pts higher than his best season ever is WAY over optimistic.

 

Why is Sano's scouting report at all relevant to Hicks? Sano has struggled to hit for average for one season and he actually is a special prospect. Hicks has struggled to hit for average for 3.5 seasons and that is a relevant sample size. At the very least do you have a scouting report that suggests that Hicks will hit for average?

 

Here are career MiLB and MLB BA's of most of the Twins that have succeeded at the MLB level in the last decade. I hope I don't need to tell you what the trend is.

Mauer MiLB BA = .330 and MLB BA = .323

Kubel .320 - .268

Cuddyer .291 - .271

Morneau .311 - .280

Span .286 - .284

Hunter .270 - .277 - the only player whose average went up

Koskie .288 - .275

Bartlett .299 - .271

Jones .295 - .277

Lecroy .290 - .260

Ortiz .310 - .285

Guzman .278 - .271

Hicks career MiLB .271

 

Do you have any idea how much of a statistical outlier it would be for Hicks to hit .290 in the majors? Like I said before .260's is what Hicks will likely hit and it could be much worse based on how much BA typically drops for MLB hitters.

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CDog Draft Eligible

CDog

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BA usually drops and it usually drops a lot.

 

Here are career MiLB and MLB BA's of most of the Twins that have succeeded at the MLB level in the last decade. I hope I don't need to tell you what the trend is.

Mauer MiLB BA = .330 and MLB BA = .323

Kubel .320 - .268

Cuddyer .291 - .271

Morneau .311 - .280

Span .286 - .284

Hunter .270 - .277 - the only player whose average went up

Koskie .288 - .275

Bartlett .299 - .271

Jones .295 - .277

Lecroy .290 - .260

Ortiz .310 - .285

Guzman .278 - .271

Hicks career MiLB .271

 

Do you have any idea how much of a statistical outlier it would be for Hicks to hit .290 in the majors? Like I said before .260's is what Hicks will likely hit and it could be much worse based on how much BA typically drops for MLB hitters.

 

While your point may be correct, if you're projecting ceiling, wouldn't it be more informative and accurate to look at the BEST season of the players on that list? Most of them had at least one major league season with a BA better than the overall minor league average listed. Some by quite a margin, and some did it several times. Maybe best major league average compared to best minor league is an even better way to go?

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kab21 GCL Twins

kab21

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Why would I be interested in BEST MLB season? If I'm projecting someone then I'm projecting what you can expect him to do EVERY season and not just one flukey high BAPIP season. Hicks has .260's (or maybe even .250's) hitter written all over him. Luckily he walks a lot, plays great defense and has some (not 25 HR) power. Putting up a .700-.750 OPS with good CF defense is a very valuable player. Putting up mnfanforlife's numbers not only make him an all star but he's also an MVP candidate. That's how ridiculous those numbers are for a player of Hicks' track record.

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CDog Draft Eligible

CDog

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Why would I be interested in BEST MLB season? If I'm projecting someone then I'm projecting what you can expect him to do EVERY season and not just one flukey high BAPIP season. Hicks has .260's (or maybe even .250's) hitter written all over him. Luckily he walks a lot, plays great defense and has some (not 25 HR) power. Putting up a .700-.750 OPS with good CF defense is a very valuable player. Putting up mnfanforlife's numbers not only make him an all star but he's also an MVP candidate. That's how ridiculous those numbers are for a player of Hicks' track record.

 

Because the projection you were responding to was a one-season line.

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mnfanforlife Draft Eligible

mnfanforlife

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"Throwing out a projection that is 4 pts higher than his best season ever is WAY over optimistic" - sounds like a contradiction to me. Four pts on a batting average is insignificant. There is no doubt in my mind Hicks can hit.290 in the major leagues someday. Its not WAY over-optimistic. .260 is more likely, but I don't give a crap about your practical visions. Thanks for reading my posts. They must be good since you feel the need to inject and infect them with boredom.

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TheLeviathan All-Star

TheLeviathan

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Because the projection you were responding to was a one-season line.

 

....being used to project what we can expect of his career. I guess you could argue he was saying that was going to be his career-year, but then it leaves us all hanging on what a typical season would look like. I think it's far more rational to believe that projection was of a typical year. Otherwise that original post had even less merit than kab is arguing it has.

 

You could be right, but it's highly unlikely that's what he meant.

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nicksaviking All-Star

nicksaviking

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I'm sure Hicks will have a year (probably several) that he hits over his career minor league BA, but like most everyone else, his career MLB average likely will not be higher than his career MiLB average.

 

However, seeing as his MiLB average is low likely due to his high strikeout totals, and if those totals are high because he is being too selective (unlike most MiLB'ers who have high K% because they chase evey breaking ball thrown), that may be something he can adjust if the team asks him to. In that situation I could see his average remain what it is at the MiLB level. Of course by asking him to be less selective, you also have to expect his BB% and by proxy his OBP to decrease, so is that really a trade off we should advocate the team to make?

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CDog Draft Eligible

CDog

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....being used to project what we can expect of his career. I guess you could argue he was saying that was going to be his career-year, but then it leaves us all hanging on what a typical season would look like. I think it's far more rational to believe that projection was of a typical year. Otherwise that original post had even less merit than kab is arguing it has.

 

You could be right, but it's highly unlikely that's what he meant.

 

Based on subsequent posts, it seems more like he meant the best he could be. Also based on subsequent posts, it seems like he may think he can do it for years and years. So I really have no idea.

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