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The Finance Desk: a look at 2018 attendance


Bryan Borchardt

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The last time I check Baseball is still a business. We can be sure the owners believe that, and in most cases it seems the players think so too. But what about the fans? If fans do consider baseball to be a business, they would show it via the money and time they spend watching games.

 

When the Twins promised to put a strong team on the field in exchange for a new stadium, they delivered with 94 wins and a playoff appearance in 2010. The payroll increased by 44%, to a then record level of $97.6M. And as promised, the fans showed up to the tune of all time record attendance of 3.22M.

 

The honeymoon would not last. Since that time the payroll has increased by an average of 0.9% per year, while attendance decreased each of the last six years prior to 2017. On field performance has been the primary driver of this attendance decrease, but with the Twins outlook beginning to look more positive, what type of impact will that have on the attendance level for 2018?

 

The number is likely less than you think.

 

Since 1990, overall attendance per game has increase by 10% or more just five times, including the first year of Target field when attendance increased by 33% per game from the prior year. Of course that 33% increase is nothing compared to the 78% increase in the “get to know ‘em” year of 2001. That said, the 78% increase brought total attendance to a measly 1.78M, 180,000 less than the lowest year at Target field in 2016.

 

History tells us a more reasonable expectation would be more around 6.6% increase, which is the average increase for the second consecutive winning season for the Twins dating back to 1990 (1992, 2002 & 2009). With a schedule of 82 home games this would translate to total attendance 2.213M for the Twins in 2018. However, considering the fact that there will be two home games in Puerto Rico this year, total attendance would come in closer to 2.159M, an increase of just 5.2% in total.

 

And what about those two games in Puerto Rico? According to the collective bargaining agreement, “Clubs that have one or more home games replaced by an International Play Event shall be compensated for lost revenue”. A discussion of this seems like a project for another day.

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The teams last three years, more likely 4 years were schizophrenic. And last years seemingly successful season was not looking good at the break. Closing the year out by getting bombed in NY didn't generate any enthusiasm either. There's just too many gaps for the average fan. One has to go into the season knowing it's going to be a good year, not hoping it will. And those empty early season seats can't be recouped.

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The teams last three years, more likely 4 years were schizophrenic. And last years seemingly successful season was not looking good at the break. Closing the year out by getting bombed in NY didn't generate any enthusiasm either. There's just too many gaps for the average fan. One has to go into the season knowing it's going to be a good year, not hoping it will. And those empty early season seats can't be recouped.

 

From my perspective, hype around the team seems to be higher than last year, but I mostly agree with you. Home games in April in the Minnesota "cold" won't be a hot ticket without a sure thing. The baby boomer fan base may opt for activities that favor climate comfort. Folks have five months afterwards to get to a game. 

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The twins sold a lot of full price tickets because of their success last year. So, they aren't hurting.

 

Winning puts butts in the seats. Establishing some player stars helps with promotions.

 

And, people comign to games means more ad revenue, plus concessions and such.

 

Plus, the ahrd reality is that they SHOULD be able to spend upwards of $150 million and not suffer, especially in a weak division.

 

The rotation is still a shambles, with a couple of low price fixes that is absically throwing money to the wind (the bounce back of Hughes, the rebirth of Sanchez, the promise of May). May promises Santana's return, but the twins are still one short of a full cup of solid arms.

 

Time to cut the bait and get on with going forwards. The rookies are still a half-season away, and maybe ready for short game callups. Slegers and Mejia are in the wings, but only as short-term probables. Next year you may lose someone, and then work Pineada into the mix.

 

But the Twins are NOT losing money. Plus, their part of the stadium is almost (if not) paid off.

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It would be interesting to see a breakdown in revenue between ticket dollars and concession dollars.  It takes butts in the seats in order to sell $8 hotdogs and $10 beers. Winning puts butts in the seats, more 'fair weather fans' that don't goto a lot of games and will splurge on more concessions.

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