The Finance Desk: a look at 2018 attendance
Twins Video
The last time I check Baseball is still a business. We can be sure the owners believe that, and in most cases it seems the players think so too. But what about the fans? If fans do consider baseball to be a business, they would show it via the money and time they spend watching games.
When the Twins promised to put a strong team on the field in exchange for a new stadium, they delivered with 94 wins and a playoff appearance in 2010. The payroll increased by 44%, to a then record level of $97.6M. And as promised, the fans showed up to the tune of all time record attendance of 3.22M.
The honeymoon would not last. Since that time the payroll has increased by an average of 0.9% per year, while attendance decreased each of the last six years prior to 2017. On field performance has been the primary driver of this attendance decrease, but with the Twins outlook beginning to look more positive, what type of impact will that have on the attendance level for 2018?
The number is likely less than you think.
Since 1990, overall attendance per game has increase by 10% or more just five times, including the first year of Target field when attendance increased by 33% per game from the prior year. Of course that 33% increase is nothing compared to the 78% increase in the “get to know ‘em” year of 2001. That said, the 78% increase brought total attendance to a measly 1.78M, 180,000 less than the lowest year at Target field in 2016.
History tells us a more reasonable expectation would be more around 6.6% increase, which is the average increase for the second consecutive winning season for the Twins dating back to 1990 (1992, 2002 & 2009). With a schedule of 82 home games this would translate to total attendance 2.213M for the Twins in 2018. However, considering the fact that there will be two home games in Puerto Rico this year, total attendance would come in closer to 2.159M, an increase of just 5.2% in total.
And what about those two games in Puerto Rico? According to the collective bargaining agreement, “Clubs that have one or more home games replaced by an International Play Event shall be compensated for lost revenue”. A discussion of this seems like a project for another day.
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