The history of the qualifying offer in Major League Baseball is short, as it only came into existence at the start of the 2012-2013 offseason. The purpose of the qualifying offer was to grant compensation, in the form of a draft pick, to MLB teams that lost a key player in free agency.

Since its inception, 73 players have been extended a qualifying offer, and of those 73 players, only five of them have accepted the deal, none of which were from this offseason. The primary reason for this being that teams try to avoid extending a player a qualifying offer if they think it will be accepted.

Among those players who rejected a qualifying offer this winter are Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. At the onset of the offseason, it seemed like a no brainer that these players would receive deals that would easily exceed that of the qualifying offer. However, as the season draws near, there is a chance that one of these players may accept a 1-year deal for potentially less than the $17.4M that they turned down, in an opportunity to prove themselves again and reenter the market again next winter.

If the Twins were to get back into the chase for one of these pitchers, it would probably only be if they took a deal for less value than the qualifying offer. Believe it or not, this move is actually not unprecedented. So, let’s take a look back at the times that this has happened.

Nelson Cruz – 2013

Offer Rejected: 1-year, $14.1M (TEX)

Signed For: 1-year, $8M (BAL)

Nelson Cruz was a dominate offensive threat for the Texas Rangers in his time there. During his first three seasons in Texas, 2008-2010, he collected 9.7 fWAR in just 267 games played, a 5.9 fWAR pace per 162 games played. However, this production fell off in his final three years with the team, where he had a mere 3.7 fWAR over 392 games played, a 1.5 fWAR pace per 162 games played.

Still, Cruz’s reputation proceeded itself, and caused him to receive a qualifying offer from the Rangers. However, when he hit free agency, what MLB teams saw was a three year track record of underwhelming success from a one dimensional player. This gave the Orioles and opportunity to take a flyer on Cruz. The move could not have panned out better for them, as Cruz hit for a .271/.333/.525 slash line, along with an MLB leading 40 home runs.

Stephen Drew – 2013

Offer Rejected: 1-year, $14.1M (BOS)

Signed For: 1-year, $10M (BOS)

Stephen Drew was coming off of a career year in 2013, where he produced as an above average bat, along with league average defense at shortstop. Unlike today, those to skills were few and far between just five years ago. Despite this, MLB teams saw right through the aging shortstop, who had a very inconsistent career up to that point. Drew’s offense in 2013 was carried largely on the weight of his .320 BABIP, a full 30 points higher than his career average.

Drew didn’t end up signing with a team until May of the following season, where he resigned with the Red Sox for $4M less than the offer that he rejected from them just six months earlier. It turns out that MLB GMs were right to be skeptical of Stephen Drew, as he has been nothing more than a replacement level player in the four years since.

Kendrys Morales – 2013

Offer Rejected: 1-year, $14.1M (SEA)

Signed For: 1-year, $12M (MIN)

The Twins’ signing of Kendrys Morales in June of 2014 was maybe the most unique of all these signings. The reason for this being that Morales didn’t sign with the Twins until June of 2014, after the First Year Player Draft. This meant that even though Morales rejected his qualifying offer, the Twins didn’t have to give up a draft pick to sign him.

That was perhaps the only good take away from the Kendrys Morales signing, as he slashed a mere .234/.259/.325 with just one home run over 39 games in a Twins uniform. He was then dealt back to the Mariners before the trade deadline in exchange for Stephen Pryor, a minor league pitcher that has been out of baseball since the Twins released him after the 2015 season.

Ian Desmond – 2015

Offer Rejected: 1-year, $15.8M (WAS)

Signed For: 1-year, $8M (TEX)

Ian Desmond’s career got off to a good start with the Washington Nationals. In Washington, Desmond was a shortstop that was mostly known for his bat, though he still provided manageable defense at short. However, when Desmond hit free agency, he was coming off of a down season offensively (83 wRC+), and there were questions about his ability to stay at short.

Ian Desmond wound up making the move to the outfield, and as a result his value plummeted. Much like Nelson Cruz, signing a 1-year deal paid off well for Desmond, as he had a bounce back season with the Rangers, hitting for a 106 wRC+ on his way to a 3.3 fWAR season.

Dexter Fowler – 2015

Offer Rejected: 1-year, $15.8M (CHC)

Signed For: 1-year, $13M (CHC)

The drama of where Dexter Fowler would sign lead all the way up to the start of spring training, where it appeared as though he had a deal locked up with Baltimore, before reversing course and resigning with the Cubs. Fowler is yet another player on this list who benefited greatly from signing a 1-year bounce back deal.

2016 was undoubtedly the best season of Fowler’s career, both offensively and defensively. Not only did he have a career high .367 wOBA, but it was also the only season in his career when his defense wasn’t terrible in center. For a player whose DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) usually sits somewhere between -10 and -20, the +1 number that he posted in 2016 was a welcome surprise for the Cubs.

Hisahi Iwakuma – 2015

Offer Rejected: 1-year, $15.8M (SEA)

Signed For: 1-year, $12M (SEA)

Hisahi Iwakuma, the first and only pitcher on this list, resigned with the Seattle Mariners in December of 2015, just over a month after he rejected a qualifying offer from the team. The deal did include two vesting options, and had the potential to reach as high as $39M with incentives.

Iwakuma was able to hit the first vesting option, along with an incentive bonus, so the deal ending up being for 2-years and $27.5M. Even though the deal ending up reaching that mark, it was still a very team friendly deal as the vesting options took most of the risk out of the contract, as only $12M was guaranteed.

Howie Kendrick – 2015

Offer Rejected: 1-year, $15.8M (LAD)

Signed For: 2-years, $20M (LAD)

The final player on this list is also the only player that actually signed a deal with more guaranteed money than the qualifying offer that he rejected. This reason I am including Howie Kendrick on this list is the 1-year, $15.8M deal he rejected is a much better offer than the 2-year, $20M deal he ultimately accepted.

Howie Kendrick ended up getting traded twice during the course of his 2-year contract. First from the Dodger to the Phillies, and then from the Phillies to the Nationals. After having an okay year in 2016, Kendrick had a strong performance in 2017, putting up 1.6 fWAR despite only playing 91 games due to injury.

As you can see, a player that rejected a qualifying offer actually signing a 1-year deal to try and test their luck in the following offseason is well within the realm of possibilities. For pitchers like Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, this might not be a bad idea for them, if they can’t get a quality long-term offer, since there are many question marks around them, being just a year removed from Tommy John surgery.