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Building an Ideal Twins Lineup


Andrew Thares

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After the addition of Logan Morrison over the weekend, it left many in Twins Territory wondering how would he fit into the lineup. Including the Twins Daily twitter account.

 

Twins Daily Lineup Tweet

 

This question drew a number of different responses from Twins fans, so I decided to dive into the numbers and construct what I believe to be the ideal Twins lineup. Just as it is worded in the tweet, I took this approach from the perspective that Sano will be able to play third base this season. I also see the lineup being constructed very differently depending on if the Twins are facing a righty or a lefty, so I created a lineup for both. So, let’s get into it.

 

Against Right-Handed Starters

 

1st Joe Mauer 1B: Mauer is the ideal fit for the Twins leadoff position. His 0.384 OBP in 2017, ranked 5th among all qualified American League hitters. This ability to get on base is key for the leadoff role, as it gives the heart of the order a base-runner to drive in.

 

2nd Brian Dozier 2B: Dozier has spent the last season and a half in the leadoff spot for the Twins. Over that time, Dozier has hit 59 home runs. Unfortunately, just 25% of those home runs have been with at least one runner on base. By comparison the MLB average, over that time, is 41%. The biggest reason for this being that the leadoff hitter has the highest percentage of their plate appearances coming with nobody on-base, and by a wide margin at that.

 

3rd Logan Morrison DH: Last season Logan Morrison mashed righties to the tune of a .251/.365/.548 slash line, along with 32 home runs. Morrison’s 137 wRC+ against righties would have been the best mark on the Twins in 2017.

 

4th Miguel Sano 3B: I previously sited the fact that leadoff hitters have the smallest percentage of their plate appearances coming with runners on-base as the reason why the Twins should take Dozier out of the leadoff role. Well that same reasoning holds true as to why Sano fits perfect as the Twins clean-up hitter. Year in and year out, the 4th hitter in the lineup sees a higher percent of their plate appearances coming with runners on base than any other spot in the order. Last year that number stood at 48.6%.

 

5th Eddie Rosario LF: 2017 was a real breakout season for Eddie Rosario at the plate. Rosario saw much of that production come against right-handed pitchers, as his 135 wRC+ against them lead the team.

 

6th Max Kepler RF: Kepler’s struggles against lefties last season were well documented. However, Kepler excels against righties, and last year gathered a .272/.343/.484 slash line against them. Kepler also collected 47 of his 53 extra-base-hits in 2017 off of right-handed pitchers.

 

7th Jorge Polanco SS: Polanco really turned his offensive production around in the last two months of the season. Over that time Polanco collected a .393 wOBA against righties, the 21st highest mark in Major League Baseball (minimum 150 plate-appearances).

 

8th Jason Castro C: As the left-handed hitting member of the Twins catching duo, Castro will probably get a majority of the starts against right-handed starting pitchers. Castro is a solid hitting threat, and can put up numbers that most teams would take from a catcher hitting in the 8th spot in the order.

 

9th Byron Buxton CF: Even though Buxton made great strides at the end of last season, much of that production came against left-handed pitching. With the strength that the rest of the lineup possess against righties, Buxton will really help the Twins turn their lineup back over hitting 9th.

 

The Twins might have one of the best lineups against right-handed pitchers in all of baseball. This is a great situation to be in given that a large majority of their games will come against right-handed starters, especially in the AL Central.

 

 

 

 

Against Left-Handed Starters

 

1st Byron Buxton CF: Despite his rough start to the season, Buxton still finished with the Twins’ 3rd highest wOBA against lefties in 2017. His eye at the plate against left-handed pitchers is very strong, as he produced a 0.365 OBP against them last season.

 

2nd Joe Mauer 1B: As you may have noticed, I really like the idea of Joe Mauer hitting right behind Byron Buxton. The reason for this being that the best type of hitter to place behind a premier base stealing threat is a high-contact singles hitter, as it maximizes the benefit of stealing a base to get into scoring position. Additional, batting Mauer 2nd gives the Twins two strong on-base threats ahead of Dozier and Sano, who are two of the best right-handed power hitters in the league.

 

3rd Brian Dozier 2B: Normally you would like to see the lineup’s best hitter in the 2-hole. However, given the way the Twins lineup is constructed against lefties, I think their best chance to score runs is trying to get as many people as they can on-base in front of Dozier, so he can make the most of all the power that he has against them.

 

4th Miguel Sano 3B: I don’t really know what else there is to say, except Sano is just the ideal clean-up hitter for the Twins. Sano also provides great protection hitting right behind Dozier.

 

5th Logan Morrison DH: Much has been made about Morrison’s scorching numbers against right-handed pitchers in 2017. So, the fact that Morrison was still a solid hitter against lefties in 2017 might surprise you. In fact, his 109 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers would have been the 4th best mark by a Twin with at least 75 plate-appearances against a lefty last season.

 

6th Jorge Polanco SS: Perhaps the best part of Polanco’s late season turnaround was the fact that he was very productive from both sides of the plate. With his ability to be an all-around hitter as both a righty and a lefty, he could really help fill a hole in the Twins lineup against lefties.

 

7th Mitch Garver C: Garver posted strong numbers in AAA Rochester last season, and earned a call-up to the bigs at the end of the year. Garver’s right-handed bat could bring some much needed pop against lefties. If he shows that he can produce at the Major League level, Garver might see himself move up a few spots in the order.

 

8th Eddie Rosario LF: With all of the production that Rosario had against righties last season, those numbers didn’t cross over much to lefties, as he produced a mere .682 OPS against them. The most troubling part is the fact that he drew just 5 walks in 183 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers.

 

9th Robbie Grossman/Zach Granite RF: Baring an injury to either Buxton, Rosario or Kepler, I do not see both Robbie Grossman and Zach Granite on the MLB roster this season. With that being said, I see the 9th spot in the order against lefties going to whichever player makes the team.

 

Clearly the Twins lineup against left-handed pitchers isn’t nearly as strong as it is against righties. Given that realization, I think the lineup against left-handed starters will be a lot more interchangeable. I see this as a perfect opportunity to give some of the regulars a day off, and plug in some of the other bench pieces.

 

I’m sure there are many of you who probably disagree with the way that I constructed these lineups. I would love to hear any changes that you would make to them, and your reasoning behind it.

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I like these lineups, except maybe that Granite wouldn't be a better choice than Kepler, even against lefties.

 

The other point I would make is that there is a lot of flexibility if someone struggles or takes off.  Things won't fall apart from one injury or slump.

 

The potential is tremendous.  Buxton, Polanco, and Kepler are all candidates to improve on last year's season numbers dramatically, and be offensive stars.  Yet they begin the season as the most likely choices for the 9 hole.  Nice.

 

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I’d LOVE to see Mauer in the lead off spot and Dozier a guy or two behind him. That said, I don’t think Molitor will do that.

 

I think you’re right about the turnover in the lefty lineup. We have a lot of holes against lefties, which is the only reason I can find that would go against the LoMo signing.

 

Good write up!

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I'd love to see Buxton hold down the leadoff spot, and Dozier bat third. Sadly, I would like it better if I knew that Mauer/Dozier would still be on the team come next season. But both need to produce to keep free agent drms alive, and I can't think of two better players to get the msot at bats in the lineup. With a middle of Sano/Morrison and Rosario, the Twins have quite a punch. And then the end of the lineup with Kepler/Castro and Polanco looks pretty darn good.

 

Let's see: a bench of Wilson or Garver, Escobar, Grossman and one other guy. I can live with that.

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