Twins Showing Interest in Wade Miley
Entry posted by Andrew Thares ·
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The Twins have made a concerted effort this offseason to improve their pitching staff with additions of Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke, Addison Reed and Michael Pineda. However, it doesn’t appear that any of those moves will be a limiting factor as the Twins look to make further additions. Earlier this week, Derek Falvey said that “he doesn’t believe the Twins have any major budget constraints to sign a much-needed starter.” This is good news for Twins fans that are hoping that the Twins will sign Yu Darvish, but it also means that they are considering other options to bolster their pitching staff as well. One of the potential options that the Twins are showing interest in is 31-year-old Wade Miley.
Wade Miley isn’t the sexiest name out there on the starting pitcher market, but he could be a value grab for the Twins as they look to add depth to their rotation. One thing the Twins will be able to count on in Miley is his durability, as he has averaged 186 innings per season over the last six years. Miley has a respectable 4.38 ERA, and 3.95 xFIP, over his career, though he has been suspect of late with a 5.48 ERA over the past two seasons. This will make Miley a cheap signing, that the Twins could take a flyer on.
When digging into Miley’s peripheral numbers, it appears that he is poised for a bounce back season in 2018. Despite the 5.48 ERA in 2016 and 2017 combined, Miley had an xFIP that was more than a full run lower at 4.34. This is due in large part to Miley’s HR/FB jumping to 16.2% and 19.4% in the last two years respectively. This is up from the 10.6% HR/FB that Miley had averaged in his career before 2016. A lot of this can be explained by the fact that Miley spent part of 2016, and all of 2017 as a member of the Baltimore Orioles, who play in notoriously hitter friendly Camden Yards. If you put Miley in a more pitcher friendly park in 2018, his HR/FB ratio will almost surely go down, and along with it his ERA.
One area of concern for Miley entering 2018 is his walk rate. In 2017, Miley saw his BB/9 balloon from his 2.79 career average, all the way up to 5.32. This was by far the highest of any full time starting pitcher in 2017, as the next highest walk rate from a pitcher that threw at least 150 innings was Chad Kuhl’s 4.12 BB/9. This screams that this number is, in large part, a product of the random variation that comes from a sample size of just one season. It is very reasonable to assume that Miley’s walk rate might regress back closer to his career norms in 2018. It could also be helpful for Miley to get away from the Orioles nightmare pitching situation (Orioles starters had a 5.70 ERA in 2017, the worst of any team since the 2012 Rockies).
If the Twins do find themselves in a situation where they are unable to sign one of the more prolific starters that are still available in free agency, Wade Miley might just be an okay option for the Twins to either fall back on, or complement a different move with. Given the current state of the free agent market, and the fact that the Orioles decided to pay the $500K to buyout their $12MM team option for Miley in 2018, the Twins should be able to sign Miley to a one-year deal, in the $4M - $7M per year range.
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