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Twins Brass Setting Up Molitor to Fail?


Steven Buhr

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With the 2017 Minnesota Twins season set to open up on Monday, it's finally time to try to predict what this team will do over the next 162 games.

 

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

 

Looking at the Opening Day roster and comparing it to what we saw a year ago, making a prediction that doesn't have the Twins once again at least flirting with 100 losses takes a combination of considerable imagination and pure hope.

A 103-loss team a year ago, it's pretty hard to see obvious reasons to project a significant improvement in that record. The primary change (in fact, perhaps the only significant change) in the organization came in the front office and, no matter what you think of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the new Twins brass won't pitch or hit the team to more wins.

 

This is a roster that cried out for pitching upgrades and I defy anyone to look at the Opening Day pitching staff and point out where significant improvement is going to come from. The decision-makers have determined that manager Paul Molitor will have 13 pitchers to choose from. I don't think volume is going to automatically make the staff better, though.

 

What this roster does have, thanks to the extra pitching being carried, is a total lack of offense available off the bench. When Molitor looks down his bench for a pinch hitter, he's going to be looking at Chris Gimenez, Eduardo Escobar and Danny Santana.

 

The only way he'll see a viable pinch hitter in that dugout is if he has started Escobar at shortstop, leaving Jorge Polanco available.

 

Gimenez, the backup catcher, is also supposedly the backup first baseman behind Joe Mauer. That's not ideal. I have to wonder if we won't see Max Kepler at first base with some frequency. I don't doubt he can handle the position (he did well enough there in Cedar Rapids back in 2013), but it's a waste to put a guy with his range in the outfield at first base. It just makes you worse as a team, defensively, at both positions.

 

I don't envy Molitor the task he has before him this season.

 

Owner Jim Pohlad made it clear at the end of 2016 that, regardless of who he hired to run his baseball operations, they were going to keep Molitor as their manager in 2017.

 

So Falvey and Levine knew they wouldn't be able to hire the manager of their choice until the 2018 season.

 

But it's almost as if they collectively decided that they weren't going to go out of their way during the 2016-2017 offseason to improve the Twins' roster and risk giving Molitor any chance to win enough games to make replacing him an unpopular thing to do, either with fans or with an owner who clearly likes the Hall-of-Famer, after his lame-duck season wraps up.

 

Molitor has certainly not set the world on fir in his first two seasons as a manager. In this interview with the Pioneer Press' Brian Murphy, Molitor even admits that, "Learning to run the bullpen has been a work in progress."

 

He'll get no argument from most Twins fans on that point.

 

Molitor also conceded that his ability to produce more wins may be taken out of his hands as this season unfolds. After trying, and failing, to get what they considered fair market trade value out of veterans like Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana during the offseason, you have to assume that the Twins new front office would be quick to pull the trigger on mid-season trades of such players if they get off to good starts, driving up their trade values

 

With a front office so obviously focused on the future, such moves would have significant negative effects on the chances of Molitor leading his team to enough wins to save his job.

 

To his credit, it's clear from the comments he made to Murphy that Molitor, while being aware of these circumstances, isn't particularly concerned about them. Or at least he's classy enough not to express any such concerns publicly.

 

Make no mistake, however, any ultimate failure of the 2017 Twins to substantially improve the results that fans see on the field would be a shared responsibility.

 

I won't argue that Molitor would be blameless for a lack of success, but his front office did him no favors with its inactivity all offseason long. They had an obvious task - improve the pitching, both the rotation and the bullpen. They did almost nothing to address that need and that, in my view, would make them primarily responsible if a lack of pitching talent leads to another bad season.

 

I'm hoping that another year of development will mean significant improvements on the field from guys such as Kepler, Polanco, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano.

 

I'm hoping Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson have good years and that whatever mix is in that bullpen turns out able to do its job well.

 

I'm hoping that some of the organization's young pitchers develop quickly enough to provide upgrades during the course of the season.

 

As a fan, hoping is all I have the ability to do.

 

Unfortunately, everything I've seen, heard and read about the new Twins front office indicates that they're just hoping all those things happen, too.

 

Falvey and Levine, however, walked into their offices at Target Field with the absolute authority to reshape their roster and they did virtually nothing to give Molitor - and Twins fans - anything of substance to hang our hopes on for this season.

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I've seen this conspiracy scenario stuff sprinkled throughout topics all offseason. That's just not how things work in the real world, and this isn't the plot of a "B" movie, so no, they are not setting Molly up to fail. They are working together as a team to do the best they can now with a strong eye to the near future. Any Machiavelian motives just don't exist. If, and this is just a huge if, this was actually happening, then it would be a clear indicator that the front office are not effective leaders and have no business running anything. Again, that sort of passive undermining just doesnt happen when you are talking about this level of management/leadership outside of movies.

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I've seen this conspiracy scenario stuff sprinkled throughout topics all offseason. That's just not how things work in the real world

 

Well, yes and no. Mostly no, but who ever knows. 

 

At least some of us are trying to make sense of this debacle! Better to guess that there are things going on behind the scenes than to appraise this as reasonable roster making.

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I come at it from the opposite angle. That it's the Twins brass letting Molitor do his thing.

 

Falvey and Levine seemed pretty proactive at the start. They dumped Plouffe, tried to trade Dozier, and named Trevor May a starter. These are all things I was in favor of, though I did not care for the signing of Breslow. Then when the good will of Twins fest wore off and spring training started, it all seemed to fall apart. Almost like when they met the extended family, it was like the scene in Moneyball where Brad Pitt walks into the draft room with all those old scouts. Except Falvey is the nicest guy on the planet and doesn't want to hurt anyone's feelings. So he just turned most of the decisions over to the "old baseball men" one last time. 

 

Conspiracy theories beat the alternative, which is that Falvey is so incompetent at putting together a roster that he forgot to bring another player who can play first base besides Mauer, that there are 13 pitchers but two backup middle infielders on the active roster, and Danny Santana is the fourth outfielder. That is brutal and a recipe for failure.

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There's a lot of moving parts here. But the biggest one was Pohlads decision to protect his buddy. If he had not done that, Molitor would have saved face as being moved by the new administration. Falvine would be judged on their choice of a new guy right out of the chute, and roster decisions would not be graded on this curve. And it would have definitely helped ticket sales. All this said, it's not inconceivable that either scenario is correct, but my bet is on evaluation of players over a longer period. That fits in with both the slow pace of movement in FO moves, and in the simple fact that this team is not one SP away from contention.

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Conspiracy theories beat the alternative, which is that Falvey is so incompetent at putting together a roster that he forgot to bring another player who can play first base besides Mauer...

Good point. I thought the Twins were going to sit ol' Joe a few times a week to get his games played down to about 120. How is that going to happen without another first baseman on the roster? Mlb.com actually lists Gimenez as backup 1B?!?! http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/?c_id=min

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Sheesh. Last April it seemed like they had a 23-man roster when Molitor sat Polanco and Kepler almost every day. Now, they're two of the four key players, yet there's a belief there's a conspiracy against Molitor by not giving him a guy that hopes to be as good as Chris Carter? Which would mean management wants to establish that kind of negative culture? Makes no sense at all. Sorry.

 

 

Last year's team was a 71-win team by advanced stats, which means that they won twelve fewer than they should have. In 2015, they won 10-12 more than their performance would predict. Lucky in 2015, unlucky in 2016 (except possibly for Grossman and Ervin S.). Regression to the mean suggests a 71-win team. Full seasons and improvement by Buxton, Kepler, Polanco and Sano, and possible improvement by Berrios, would mean a better record. However, with this pitching staff, regardless of Park, a .500 record (22 win improvement) seems like a big stretch. Regardless, management will not tank for the purpose of damaging the manager.

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I think what you are seeing here is commitment to fastball command, followed by pitch command.  Not having it is causing pitchers brought up to fail(some in brutal ways) , New FO is giving the pitchers a chance to catch up, without being exposed(read Berrios), to get things done right in the minors(where their stuff can get many of them by) instead on being blown up in the big show. 

Expected this might happen after the disclosure of the article Neil Allen wrote last year on this subject.  This is why many of the Rays pitchers, where this was practiced seemed to succeed rather than fail when they arrived. 

Yes this could be tough on Molly, but the 13 man staff is to help give him the tools to succeed instead of pounding square pegs into round holes with his pitching staff use. It just might take longer than he has to get there.

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I don't think the new brass is setting up Molly to fail.  I think Molly's been failing on his own for 2 years now, and doesn't need any help in that regard.  When the Twins announced sweeping changes in management last year, I was thrilled.  When Pohlad added "oh yeah, you've got to keep Molitor"....I was dumbfounded.  I don't think Molitor has what it takes to manage a team of young talent.  He'd be a decent choice to manage Team USA in the WBC or something, but aside from that I don't see a role for him anywhere in MLB.  Torii Hunter, on the other hand, would be a great choice.  I'd love to see the Twins put him in the minors for a year or two to sharpen his skills, and then move him into the dugout.  Molitor has the personality of a box of Triscuits, which isn't good on a team with no clearcut leadership. 

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