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Breaking Down Where The Twins And Dodgers Broke Down


Ted Schwerzler

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It wasn't the 11th hour, but times were getting desperate in Los Angeles. The Dodgers had spent the entire winter talking with the Minnesota Twins about the possibility of acquiring All Star second basemen Brian Dozier. Needing a second basemen to fix a glaring hole occupied by the aging Chase Utley a season ago, the Dodgers needed to act. In the end, they did, but it wasn't with the Twins.

 

Trading pitching prospect Jose De Leon to the Tampa Bay Rays for Logan Forysthe, the Dodgers found their man. Forsythe is 30 years old, and under team control for the next two years (with an $8.5m team option for 2018). He was worth 2.8 fWAR in 2016, 4.0 in 2014, and -0.5 three years ago in 2014.

 

How does that stack up against the Twins Dozier? Brian is just a bit younger still at 29, but is also under team control for each of the next two seasons. He was worth 5.9 fWAR as an All Star in 2016, and has been worth 2.5, 4.7, and 3.3 fWAR from 2013-2015 respectively. While very similar, the Twins two bagger is the slightly superior big leaguer.

 

In dealing De Leon straight up for Forsythe, the Twins position that there man was worth more than a 1-for-1 deal becomes immediately justified. Where the Twins maybe outkicked their coverage, was in who they were asking for along with the top pitching prospect. Names like Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, and Cody Bellinger were all thrown around. Los Angeles had no compelling reason to move any of those three, and it's understandable why they'd draw a line there. Had Minnesota stepped back to Brock Stewart or Willie Calhoun, they may have found a more willing dance partner.

 

At the end of the day, it comes down to opportunity cost for Los Angeles. In nabbing Forsythe, they get a lesser second basemen than the one the originally were targeting, but they also hold onto more of their assets. De Leon has some shoulder concerns, and the Dodgers have been said to be lower on him than other organizations may be. While Stewart and Calhoun aren't top tier guys, they provide strong depth that now stays on the farm. Los Angeles decided the added boost from Dozier wasn't worth the premium price tag.

 

With it being all but certain now that Dozier stays in Minnesota for the forseeable future, the Twins have left themselves with a couple different realities at play. First and foremost, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine stepped in and had an immediate strong showing. As noted at the end of Nick Nelson's piece, the way in which the front office stood their ground was impressive, and is something Terry Ryan probably wasn't known for. It will absolutely influence how other teams go about business with the Twins new brass in the future.

 

Secondly though, the Twins have kept one of the best second basemen in all of baseball on their roster. The harm in that in and of itself is nil, the downside comes in how he is supported. At this point, the free agent market is left with virtual holdovers saved for a few names. There's not a significant impact player or two that is going to turn the Twins reality around. Dozier deserves to have talent brought in to supplement his play, but spending to do so is something the former regime wound up doing far too often.

 

Instead, the Twins should sit and wait. Last season was a mirage of sorts in that the club wasn't the blueprint of a 103 loss team. Pitching was awful, and the offense was nonexistent at times, but the youth expected to carry the group mostly was trying to find its way. You can make the argument that even an upward trend towards mediocrity should give the Twins a realistic shot at something like 80 wins in 2017, and that'd be a heck of a turnaround in and of itself.

 

That being said, Dozier can dictate how Falvey and Levine support him. Should he back up his incredible 2016, or really just stay somewhere in the middle of his past two seasons, he could become a trade candidate to a contender in July. More likely though, he gives Minnesota some strong play, and factors into their 2018 plans as well. With money owed to Glen Perkins and Joe Mauer quickly nearing a close, Minnesota will have plenty of funds at its disposal to bring in impact players both on the mound and in the field for the 2018 season.

 

Right now, the Cleveland Indians remain well positioned in the AL Central. Outside of that though, the Royals are treading water, the Tigers are aging, and the White Sox are reliant on a full scale rebuild. If the Twins want to spend and supplement a year from now, it's hard to scoff at the idea they'd have a shot at being at least a divisional contender.

 

Stocking the farm is something that Levine and Falvey need to make a priority. The reason it's bare though, is because of the talent having graduated to the big league level. It'll be on the backs of the former top prospects that a turnaround needs to happen for the Twins. Asking Brian Dozier to be a part of that is far from a bad idea, and spending on the group as a whole a year from now would make everyone happy.

 

As Spring Training approached, the Dodgers balked on the game of chicken first. They looked at an opportunity cost being too steep and went a different direction. The haul Minnesota likely deserved was never there, and the organization was right by holding serve. Now it'll be on them to follow up the second half of the process and make Dozier feel supported throughout the lineup.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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Can't agree with this. Because Dozier didn't go to the Dodgers, the Twins now have an obligation to support him up and down the lineup? They abandon all plans to rebuild for the future because they couldn't pull off one trade for their best player? There is way too much gap between "rebuild" and "support your best player in the lineup with a solid lineup 1-9" for that to be an either/or proposition.

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Can't agree with this. Because Dozier didn't go to the Dodgers, the Twins now have an obligation to support him up and down the lineup? They abandon all plans to rebuild for the future because they couldn't pull off one trade for their best player? There is way too much gap between "rebuild" and "support your best player in the lineup with a solid lineup 1-9" for that to be an either/or proposition.

 

I think you're misunderstanding what "support" suggests. The Twins lineup isn't void of talent, and I expressed that 103 losses wasn't indicative of what this team is.

 

Offensively, this team has pieces. A year of growth and production from Buxton, Kepler, Sano could be huge. Add in an extra bat, or more importantly, an impact pitcher next year, and you've got something.

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I'm not parsing words here. The thrust of the article is that now that we didn't trade Dozier that the entire direction of the team should be altered. I understand your position that we might as well try to compete, but I don't agree that this one (failed) move should modify the long-term goal of gathering a team to compete down the road and giving younger players more playing time in an effort to develop.

 

Adding a pitcher and a bat to the current lineup almost guarantees a level of mediocrity that prevents the rebuild, development of young players, and long-term goals. I disagree that this team should be led in that direction.

 

You either compete or rebuild and you commit to one or the other. I don't think the failed Dozier trade in any way takes us from rebuilders to competitors, or from sellers to buyers.

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I'm not sure where you're getting the idea that you should be a buyer? The point is that now with Dozier (your best player), and the young talent, your window is closer than it is without him. You see how things pan out, and then supplement as necessary. The farm isn't going to produce anything of note in the immediate future that we don't already know about.

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All one can do when considering the non trade is to accept what is quite likely. And those things include the good possibility that Dozier will not repeat last year, career/league record years are rare for a reason. That the Twins lost out on a pretty decent low #2, high #3 pitcher. That Polanco is still the SS. That the Twins have few avenues to dramatically improve their SP. That the team lost 103 with Doziers heroics last year. For all these reasons I cannot see how keeping Dozier makes the Twins better? We been dere, done dat. This team needs pitching and a SS. There are only so many ways for them to acquire the SP. The trade chips are BD, or a Buxton or Sano type trade. Trading Santana is not really a net gain. Buy one? The Twins without SP are starting to look like a good football team without a QB. Drafts and economics are cause for windows of opportunities in ML sports. The Twins are entering one, but it won't happen without pitching. IMO they missed their first chance.

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