He doesn't need to "fall apart" to lose value.

He just has to do all of these things that are guaranteed to happen:

1) Age

2) Have less team control

3) Not have a career year

It's not "if" Dozier will lose value, the only questions are really how quickly he'll lose value and how much he'll lose.

I don't think teams are valuing Dozier at his 2016 performance level this winter. They would be foolish to do so. I think they seem him with an OPS in the higher 700s.

I think he will perform in that range next year.

Even if you don't think they buy his performance, he still loses value by the first two points.  In fact, those become even more important if you don't think 2016's surge did anything for him.

Leviathan, your three points are iron clad. Without any emotional attachment those three facts cannot be altered. On top of that, Twins fans need to also think about what do with Dozier after the 2018 season if we do hold him. Do we sign a 32 year old to a multi year deal? And what about Polanco? Isn't he better suited for second? We will have Gordon up eventually.

I think there is an emotional attachment to Dozier. This is streaky player who never played in a big game in is major league career and yet some people want to say "face of the franchise"???

I'd much rather have a young nucleus like we did in the early 2000s. A team identity, rather than labeling one guy the face. We could probably fortify what already have by dealing Dozier. It is not that complicated.

I will agree with you on the 3 points.Twins fans always over value their players. Dozier has more value for the Twins than he has for anyone else. Teams want younger players with less financial obligation. The Twins will not get fair trade value for him in the present market. Their are to many good players at 2nd in the league. Quality dept in the infield for the Twins is a bigger concern in my estimation than a trade. Pitching with holes in the infield just shifts the problems. Dozier will probably get you 1 pitching prospect in 2018 at the trade deadline, same as you will get today. 

I see it as a can't lose for the Twins. Either we deal Dozier for some prospects to build for the future or two more years of his bat and hair. Agreed that he will probably lose value, although who's to say there won't be new teams interested at the trade deadline in July?

Who's trade rumor do you want to believe? DeLeon straight up? If that is the offer, Dozier will have value later. The couldn't agree on a 3 or 4th piece rumor?  Dozier will lose value due to contract. The contracts given out this winter do not show age is a limiting factor in contracts or consideration of a player.

I was interested in whether most similar players continued to hit well. They did. I don't think he has the value of a 40+ HR hitter today and I don't believe that will be his value in the summer.

According to the market his value appears to be a Jose De Leon. The chances are reasonable that his value remains at that level into July. It is a risk. He could be injured. Fly ball/pull hitters tend to fluctuate more in the small sample of a partial season.

If the Twins are trying to squeeze out a few moderate prospects, it might not be worth it. They should take De Leon. If they are trying to get a second top prospect and can't this winter, it is possible the demand will be greater in July.