The Path To A Competent Rotation: A Shorter Trip Than You May Think
Twins Video
It's no secret that the biggest position of need for the Twins is the pitching staff. Sadly, this is a very weak free agent pitching class, and with arms like Santana, Hughes and Gibson still around and reports out that the Twins won't be adding payroll this offseason there doesn't look to be much in the way of room for additions anyway. Looks to be a bleak 2017 led by another dismal performance by the pitching staff. Or is it? What if the first step on the journey to fixing the pitching is a step backwards, as in behind the plate?
Let's start by looking at what Twins catchers from 2015 have done in their careers:
http://i.imgur.com/emwUkcB.png
It's pretty clear that Twins catchers have done their pitchers no favors. Both Centeno and Suzuki continued their career trends of being sub par, if not awful pitch framers. It might seem like a trait that would have minimal impact, but some quick research into the effectiveness of hitters based on count quickly shows the drastic effect stealing a strike or giving one away can have.
http://i.imgur.com/oEkxOXv.png
There's a lot of numbers there, but take particular note of the BA and SLG as the count progresses and you can see the value framing can bring. For instance, After a 1-0 count, hitters hit .271/.382/.457 last year, while after an 0-1 count, hitters hit .223/.266/.352. That's roughly a 20% increase in production based on whether the first pitch gets called a ball or a strike. That's where the value of pitch framing comes from. Putting your pitchers in more favorable counts by stealing strikes and not hurting them by giving them away. When you figure that Suzuki and Centeno were two of the worst pitch framers in the majors this year, and certainly haven't been good throughout their careers, you start to wonder just how much of an effect this may have had on the Twins results.
The Twins got their offseason started by signing catcher Jason Castro. Castro's 3yr/$24mil contract is directly tied to his ability as a pitch framer.
http://i.imgur.com/gNEYE4A.png
Over the past three seasons, Baseball Prospectus has rated him as a plus pitch framer. Since 2014, he's been one of the best framers in the league, and when you take the abysmal framing the Twins were getting from Suzuki/Centeno and bring in a genuine plus behind the plate, the potential for some significant improvements without even touching the pitching staff suddenly becomes plausible.
The Catch:
Castro's problem though is pretty offensive splits. Against RHP, Castro hits a respectable .247/.328/.424. But against LHP, that plummets to a .190/.249/.287. So any value Castro brings defensively will be largely offset when the opposing pitcher is a southpaw. So ideally, you'd want to platoon Castro with a catcher who can hit LHP, and also brings good defensive value.
***DISCLAIMER***
I'm about to say something that may have you questioning my qualifications to write even a personal blog comment on this, so for the sake of objectivity, I'm going to remove names.
***DISCLAIMER***
Player A actually fits the mold quite well. As the graph below shows, Player A has graded out as a superb pitch framer in the minors, and in limited time in the majors, has been a plus framer.
http://i.imgur.com/rfrSKie.png
He has hit LHP to the tune of .253/.301/.390. Nothing to write home about, but for the lesser half of a L/R catching platoon, certainly serviceable. So who is this masked man? John Ryan Murphy. I know, I know, I know. 2015 was awful and just made you question how he ever made it to the major leagues. But looking past a small sample, we see the yin to Castro's yang. The right handed bat that can hold his own against LHP and not cost your pitcher strikes.
Can it be enough to make a meaningful difference? That's what we'll see. The Twins rotation had the worst ERA in the AL by over half a run. The rotation won't be fixed in one move. Jason Castro is not a silver bullet. But this signing embodies a departure from a way of thinking that was often times behind the times.
- Willihammer and Teflon
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