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The Twins 40-man roster Part 1: Who should stay and who should go

Thrylos

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After a historically bad season that resulted in the worst record of the Franchise in its current location, Twins' about to be minted (as soon as Cleveland's season is over) new chief baseball officer, Derek Falvey, will have his hands full in turning this team around. I hope that he has enough flexibility to do a true rebuild. And a true rebuild is to find enough young talented players that will reach their primes together, and then supplemented by star veterans to close holes as necessary, will compete for a long time.

 

Looking at the Twins' young talent and how their 40-man roster for 2017 should be built, young is an operating word. Here is the current Twins' 40-man roster by age groups: a. Players who will be 26 and younger on 1/1/2017 who should be part of the rebuilt; b. players who will be 28 or older who really do not belong in a rebuilding team, since they will be past their primes when the new Twins' core will reach their primes, and; c. players who are in-between. The 27 year olds:

 

The listing is alphabetical with birthdays

 

Andrew Albers 10/6/1985

James Beresford 1/19/1989

Jose Berrios 5/27/1994

Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988

Byron Buxton 12/18/1993

Juan Centeno 11/16/1989

J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990

Pat Dean 5/25/1989

Brian Dozier 5/15/1987

Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990

Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989

Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987

Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989

Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (60-day DL)

Max Kepler 2/10/1993

Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984

Yorman Landa 6/11/1994

Pat Light 3/29/1991

Joe Mauer 4/19/1983

Trevor May 9/23/1989

Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993

Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991

Tommy Milone 2/16/1987

John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991

Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988

Byungho Park 7/10/1986

Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (60-day DL)

Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986

Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988

Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993

Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990

Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991

Randy Rosario 5/18/1994

Ervin Santana 12/12/1982

Hector Santiago 12/16/1987

Miguel Sano 5/11/1993

Logan Schafer 9/8/1986

Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983

Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989

Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990

Adam Walker 10/18/1991

Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988

 

 

These 42 players sorted in the 3 age groups:

 

Young enough:

 

Jose Berrios 5/27/1994

Byron Buxton 12/18/1993

J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990

Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990

Max Kepler 2/10/1993

Yorman Landa 6/11/1994

Pat Light 3/29/1991

Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993

Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991

John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991

Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993

Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990

Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991

Randy Rosario 5/18/1994

Miguel Sano 5/11/1993

Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990

Adam Walker 10/18/1991

 

Too old:

 

Andrew Albers 10/6/1985

Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988

Brian Dozier 5/15/1987

Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987

Phil Hughes 6/24/86

Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984

Joe Mauer 4/19/1983

Tommy Milone 2/16/1987

Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988

Byungho Park 7/10/1986

Glen Perkins 3/2/83

Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986

Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988

Ervin Santana 12/12/1982

Hector Santiago 12/16/1987

Logan Schafer 9/8/1986

Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983

Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988

 

In between:

 

James Beresford 1/19/1989

Juan Centeno 11/16/1989

Pat Dean 5/25/1989

Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989

Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989

Trevor May 9/23/1989

Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989

 

 

Let's look at the in between and see who could potentially offer value:

 

James Beresford 1/19/1989

Juan Centeno 11/16/1989

Pat Dean 5/25/1989

Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989

Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989

Trevor May 9/23/1989

Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989

 

Centeno, Escobar, and May can provide some value. Centeno who might be the weakest of the 3, has options, so he does not preclude the team . So they stay. Beresford, Dean, Grossman, and Tonkin are designated for assignment.

 

New Keeper list (with positions) :

 

Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (SP)

Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)

Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©

J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RP)

Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RP)

Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)

Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)

Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RP)

Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RP)

Trevor May 9/23/1989 (SP)

Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (SP)

Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (RP)

John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©

Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)

Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (RP)

Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)

Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (RP)

Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)

Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B)

Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)

 

Up to 20 total and most positions of the diamond taken care off.

 

Let's have a close look to the ones who are too old to belong to a rebuilding team, look into their contract situation, and add potential value to a trade partner:

 

Andrew Albers 10/6/1985 - no value

Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988 - maybe some value, one option left

Brian Dozier 5/15/1987 - signed until 2018, $15M owed, career season, strong value

Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value

Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery

Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value

Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining

Tommy Milone 2/16/1987 - abitration eligible, no value

Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988 - no value

Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed, major investment

Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed

Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value

Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value

Ervin Santana 12/12/1982 - signed until 2018 + option, $28M owed, close to career season, strong value

Hector Santiago 12/16/1987 - arbitration eligible, medium value

Logan Schafer 9/8/1986 - no value

Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983 - free agent

Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988 - no value

 

The ones who do not have value, should go. Suzuki will depart as a free agent, Albers, O'Rourke, Schafer, and Wimmers are designated for assignment, Milone is not offered arbitration. The list trims to:

 

 

Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988 - maybe some value, one option left

Brian Dozier 5/15/1987 - signed until 2018, $15M owed, career season, strong value

Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value

Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery

Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value

Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining

Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed, major investment

Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed, might not pitch again

Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value

Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value

Ervin Santana 12/12/1982 - signed until 2018 + option, $28M owed, close to career season, strong value

Hector Santiago 12/16/1987 - arbitration eligible, medium value

 

The 3 players with most value, Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier, and Hector Santiago should be traded, and the Twins will receive value back, as there will be takers. The remaining players are in two lists: the arbitration-eligible, and team control players with some value, and the under contract with major questionmarks. The players in those 2 lists represent 2 opposite sides of the same coin

 

The arbitration, and team control eligible players:

 

Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988 - maybe some value, one option left

Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value

Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value

Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value

Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value

 

The Twins should try to trade these players and package them with Dozier, Santana, and Santiago to receive better value. If no team values them enough to trade for them, the Twins should let them go. So trade or non-tendering (of DFA in Bosher's situation,) all 5 will not be Twins in 2017.

 

Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery

Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining

Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed,+ $13M investment

Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed, might not pitch again

 

The Twins are stuck with these 4 players. These contracts and their injury or aging situations make them undesirable for any team. The best case scenario for the Twins is that they all return healthy in 2017, start the season with the team and build enough value to be tradeable during the season. Perkins will likely not be ready and the Twins have the luxury to add him to the 60-day DL in the beginning of the reason and bring him back slowly if healthy though a series of minor league rehabs, so there is some flexibility there.

 

So from today's 40-man roster, only the following 24 players (and potentially 23 effectively with a Perkins to the 60-day DL (*) senario) will be there this off-season:

 

Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (SP)

Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)

Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©

J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RP)

Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RP)

Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (SP)

Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)

Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)

Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RP)

Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RP)

Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)

Trevor May 9/23/1989 (SP)

Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (SP)

Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (RP)

John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©

Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)

Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (RP) (*)

Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)

Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (RP)

Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)

Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (RP)

Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)

Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)

Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)

 

This would allow the Twins 16 spots to add several of their prospects for 2017 auditions as well as a good flexibility to include several trade returns. This list is light on starting pitchers , but the assumption is that they will be targeted in trades and that their number will get supplemented by one or more of the existing prospects in the system. One note. It is obvious that the Twins are heavy on the DH position. Park, Mauer, and Vargas can rotate in the first base and DH role, with the ability to have either both lefties or righties, with Vargas being an switch hitter, in a platoon situation, depending on opposing pitchers. Which means that Adam Walker should be available in a trade at this point.

 

In the next article of this series will look at who of the existing prospects should move in the 40-man roster to either protect them from the draft or to supplement the MLB-level talent.

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7 Comments

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Teddy

I would disagree on Wimmers. I think he was showing signs near the end of the season that he may be worth keeping around. Also, if they can acquire another catcher this offseason, Centeno needs to go. Frankly, I think they need two catchers and leave Murphy in AAA until he proves he's worthy of coming up.

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Thrylos

Wimmers is too old to be around the next competitive team and he does not have it any more.  90 mph fastball out of the bullpen with an ok changeup will just not cut it.  Re: Centeno: I agree.  Mostly because of being sick and tired about him "blocking" balls.  But the Twins are rebuilding and finding 2 young catchers at 21-24 who are MLB-ready will be tough.  Today's segment (hot off the press) addresses the catching situation.  But yeah, they do need young good catching (but no veterans who are worthless to a rebuilding team.) 

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beckmt

Wimmers needs to get a look see, as nothing else but a long reliever for the time being. Do not think that either Santana or Santiago will bring much in return. Therefore if I could not trade Gibson, I might look at doing a DFA on him so I have room for the young upcoming starters that hopefully will need spots by midseason next year.

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ThejacKmp
Wimmers needs to get a look see, as nothing else but a long reliever for the time being. Do not think that either Santana or Santiago will bring much in return. Therefore if I could not trade Gibson, I might look at doing a DFA on him so I have room for the young upcoming starters that hopefully will need spots by midseason next year.

 

Cray to dfa Gibson and crazy to think that the way to think about this is, "will this player be on the next great twins team".

 

For the latter, we should be looking at if guys have value; if wimmers has a good year would he have trade value? You don't give players away because they don't fit your timeline.

 

For the former, same thing, you don't give away players. Gibson has low value now but is a year removed from a nice season. It's not like the twins have tons of starting pitchers ho need time in the majors. Gibson needs another season to see if he can bounce back before you think about releasing him. If that happens he becomes a trade chip if your pitchers develop and a part of the rotation if they don't.

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Thrylos

 

Cray to dfa Gibson and crazy to think that the way to think about this is, "will this player be on the next great twins team". For the latter, we should be looking at if guys have value; if wimmers has a good year would he have trade value? You don't give players away because they don't fit your timeline. For the former, same thing, you don't give away players. Gibson has low value now but is a year removed from a nice season. It's not like the twins have tons of starting pitchers ho need time in the majors. Gibson needs another season to see if he can bounce back before you think about releasing him. If that happens he becomes a trade chip if your pitchers develop and a part of the rotation if they don't.

 

DFA is different than non-tender.  If a player is not good enough for any other team, he should not be good enough for the Twins as well.  Period.  About time that they set higher standards. 

 

Plus there is the opportunity cost of not having minor leaguers on the cusp getting MLB experience.

Wimmers is horrible any way you cut it.

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Thrylos

 

 

Wimmers needs to get a look see, as nothing else but a long reliever for the time being. Do not think that either Santana or Santiago will bring much in return. Therefore if I could not trade Gibson, I might look at doing a DFA on him so I have room for the young upcoming starters that hopefully will need spots by midseason next year.

 

Have seen enough of Wimmers.  I'd rather see what Wheeler has to offer.

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dbminn

Fine article, Thrylos. I would disagree on only a few moves, mostly based on maximizing value.

 

I wouldn't move Gibson at his point of lowest value. There is little risk to keeping him until at least mid-season, especially since you have opened 16(!) spots on the 40-man roster.

 

Trading Santana would depend on a premium return. I think there is value to keeping a solid veteran pitcher while the youngsters develop. 

 

Vargas or Walker could be included in a trade package to improve the return. Same for Duffey or Mejia, if the trade package brought the Twins a high-ceiling starter.

 

 

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