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How Aggressive Should the Twins Be About Trading Eduardo Nunez?


dwade

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blog-0703678001465535130.jpgThe bright spots for the Twins have been few and far between this season, but they have been there. Joe Mauer’s hot start, Byung-Ho Park’s chase for the Golden Sledgehammer -- HitTrackerOnline’s award for the longest average HR distance -- and the beginning of Robbie Grossman’s Hall-of-Fame run have been unexpected joys. None of these, however, can hold a candle to Eduardo Nunez’s start.

 

Going into Friday’s game, Nunez was hitting .328/.355/.531 with 12 SB, 9 HR, and a team-best 1.5 fWAR. His 139 wRC+ means he’s nearly 40 percent better than the league-average hitters and while his defense isn’t well-liked by the advanced metrics, he has looked better than previous seasons and has been acceptable filling in for Trevor Plouffe and Eduardo Escobar as needed. More than just being one of the most fun players the Twins have on the roster right now, Nunez is one of the very few producing value above what was expected of them. Which, of course, means that he’s the hottest piece of trade bait the Twins have, or so many believe.

 

Nunez has been better in the first 10 weeks of this season than he has been in the rest of his career. Combined. Prior to joining the Twins, Nunez had been worth about -1.7 fWAR due in large part to his terrible defense, though he was consistently about 15-20 percent below league average offensively as well, albeit in very limited playing time. Last season, he was surprisingly effective as a bench bat, hitting .282/.327/.431 in 204 PAs, but he’s taken another leap forward this year, driven largely by 54 point rise in his Isolated Power.

 

Sustainability is an odd question when it comes to Nunez. His hard-hit rate is up three percentage points, which is good to see, but it’s not enough to explain the fact that his BABIP is nearly 50 points above his career average. He’s hitting more flyballs, and using more of the field, which is always a good thing, but again, it’s not setting the kind of foundation that makes the changes in his game feel like they’ll hold long term. Maybe he sustains it for a full season -- weird seasons like this happen -- or maybe he starts regressing in the summer heat after the best half-season he’s ever had, but either way, it’s hard to look at the first two-plus months of the season and say “this time next season, he’ll probably a similar player.”

 

To understand what the return from trading Nunez would look like, consider a player moved at last year’s deadline. Gerardo Parra was hitting well for the Brewers, .328/.369/.517 with 9 SB and 9 HR. His defense had slipped a bit from it’s previously Gold Glove-caliber level, but probably wasn’t as bad as the advanced numbers said he was. A year younger than Nunez is now, with a far better pedigree, and shockingly similar half-season numbers to Nunez’s current line, Parra was dealt from last-place Milwaukee to a contender that needed help, the Baltimore Orioles. This is pretty much the best case scenario for the selling team, and it netted them... Zach Davies.

 

Even though he was just a 26th round pick, Davies entered the 2015 season as the Orioles’ 6th ranked prospect according to Baseball America -- though he was just the 15th best prospect in the Brewers’ system heading into this year. He’s been serviceable, just a touch below league-average in his 10 starts this season, and he’s 23, so there’s room to project growth. His average fastball velocity sits a hair below 90 mph; one of his top comparables according to Baseball Prospectus is former Twin Anthony Swarzak. So to recap: This trade went about as well as it could have for the Brewers, they gave up a better player than Nunez, and the piece they got back is interesting but ultimately the type of player that can be acquired a number of different ways. To get a player with a higher ceiling means taking on more risk and getting a player further from the majors. Trades like that happen every year -- my passable known quantity for your potentially interesting dice roll -- and the outcome can generally be summed up with “prospects will break your heart.”

 

Good, bad, and indifferent, Nunez’s profile isn’t unknown in baseball. His career with the Yankees was underwhelming and well-televised, and while his value has risen a fair bit since coming to the Twins, it isn’t as though he has become Yoenis Cespedes. If a team needs a super-utility player that can hit reasonably well, Nunez is definitely on their radar, but that isn’t the profile you give up a top prospect for, and maybe not even a B-level prospect if the team doesn’t have a specific need he’s filling.

 

This is not to say that the Twins definitely should keep Nunez; if Dave Stewart wants to continue emptying out the Diamondbacks’ farm system for questionable returns, by all means the Twins should be willing to facilitate that. Even if someone offers a Davies-caliber player, the team should make that move in an effort to set up for 2017 and beyond. The point is simply that trading Nunez isn’t a pathetically obvious move to make and only a brain-dead fool would miss this chance. The return is likely to be either underwhelming or risky and that assumes there’s a market for him at all.

 

Major league GMs aren’t dumb. Usually. They’re not going to be so dazzled by Nunez’s performance over 210 PAs that they forget to look at the preceding five lines on his Baseball-Reference page. If they do move him, great, there’s nothing better than capitalizing on an asset at peak value. If they don’t, enjoy the fact that he’s allergic to batting helmets and that he has been consistently fun to watch, even when the rest of the team has not.

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Excellent analysis.  Thank you.  If a Swarzak comparable is the return, I'd happily keep him around.  Seems like he could be a Juan Uribe type positive veteran leader to keep around, even if his bat comes back to Earth.

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He can still be that inexpensive veteran presence for another season, if you desire.

 

But what is he actually worth? What the Twins don't need are players that need to be added to a 40-man option, or players that are out-of-options, or players that are on the cusp of being a minor league free agent. They can still find some quality people because every team has that 3rd or 4th prospect at every position that more than likely will not make the big leagues and will probably be advanced over by some new draftee. Or you go after solid mid-level guys a team drafted a year or two before.

 

When evaluating EACH AND EVERY player on the Twins roster, you have to ask what they will contribute (or block) in 2017. Where do they fit into the team in 2018. Are they worth keeping into 2019. How would that player's value change between now and then. Is Nunez a placeholder? Will he continue to be a bench bat in 2018 or 2019...if so, tie him up with a contract now. But is he worth it in that long haul.

 

Come 2018, 0r 2019, and even beyond...the Twins will be arbitration heavy, but still have massive amounts of money to spend on free agents (hopefully a top flight one) or even similar players like Nunez...same age as Nunez is now, blocked at the major league level or didn't quite make-the-grade a team hoped would happen. The Twins will also have a system full of unusable prospects, since you can only field 25 and protect 40 guys...if you draft correctly, then your numbers start backing up and YOU have to make hard decisions about how badly you want to keep Vielma, Walekr, Gordon, Javier and whomever else you have that can be a shortstop.

 

And it is that fine line. Move for the sake of moving...not just holding out for something better. Sadly, the Twins aren't exactly in a prime seat to demand the best return...because even the best the Twins have to offer can be found once, twice, maybe three times around the leagues = look at the Mets and their picks for first base and third base.

 

It is all an elaborate game with people pieces. You paid x-amount for a draft pick. How long is the leash? You trade a quality centerfield guy for a pitching prospect...how long is the leash. You overpay for a mid-level free agent. Can you write-it off and move on. You have a first baseman or catcher being pushed by a prospect that is unproven, when do you make the change.

 

At some point, a player usually declines after a great moment. Or they walk, Or they truly become more expensive and you receive nothing in exchange (Nathan, Cuddyer, Kubel). Too often the Twins have made mistakes (WIllingham, Young recent examples) or holding onto what they considered a bargain a bit too long and received...nothing of value (always felt Oliveros would be a hard-throwing setup guy, but....)

 

Right now, it would be tragic to trade away your gems (Abad, Grossman, Nunez). But the reality is, how much worse can the team be than they are right now. And if you give the youth the opportunity to play (and still fail), would it be much worse than filling the field with names that will never amount to much in Twins history?

 

 

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