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Kevin Jepsen Off The Rails


Ted Schwerzler

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The Twins bullpen has been a problem area in the early going this season, and despite being left largely unaddressed this offseason, I expected the minor moves to make some difference. In short, some aspects have played out as expected. Fernando Abad has been about as good as I assumed, and Casey Fien has struggled along the lines I pictured. A guy I worried about though, was Kevin Jepsen, and that's been a bigger issue.

 

Jepsen appeared a very large regression candidate coming into the 2016 season. After being acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, Jepsen posted a 1.61 ERA for the Twins along with a 2.56 FIP. His 8.0 K/9 was right near his career average, and his 2.3 BB/9 were the best result of his career. Having never seen significant time as a closer previously, he grabbed 10 saves for Minnesota as a replacement for the injured Glen Perkins.

It all added up to a situation that just seemed too good to play out again.

 

Now around 20 games into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the wheels have essentially fallen off for Jepsen. He owns a 4.15 ERA which probably doesn't highlight how poor he's been. His 7.3 K/9 is fine, but he's striking out just 17% of opposing hitters, the worst mark of his career. He's blown three saves, and has converted just two on the season. Now matter how you break it down, he's far from anything certain in a closer role.

 

There's a couple of things Jepsen seems to be doing differently early on for the Twins. He's relied on his fastball nearly 75% of the time this season (nearly a 10% bump from 2015), and has all but abandoned his changeup (using it just 2.7% of the time). Combining the usage with the fact that his 94 mph velocity on his fastball is the lowest of his career, it's resulted in less than ideal output.

 

On top of that, the effectiveness of Jepsen's pitches seems to have waned as well. In 2016, he's gotten batters to chase ptiches out of the zone just 24.1% of the time (lowest mark of his career) and well as generating swinging strikes just 8.7% of the time (lowest mark since 2013). When he throws a ball in the strike zone, opposing hitters are making contact a ridiculous 92.2% of the time (also the worst mark of his career).

 

Right now, Jepsen's problems are a perfect storm. He's not executing his pitches, and when he is, they simply aren't very good. He's not fooling hitters, and he's generally dancing around trouble rather than attacking and avoiding it. The sum of all parts suggests the regression I expect to set in, but I really didn't see it coming this quickly.

 

It's more than fair to attribute some of Jepsen's problems to the role he is being forced to play. Thanks to Glen Perkins binding the Twins with a week one DL stay, the former Rays reliever is pitching in a high leverage closer role he has no business occupying. In a pinch, as was the case in 2015, the situation may work for a brief period of time. As a shut down late inning reliever, you'd expect a ballclub to do better than Jepsen however.

 

For now, it sounds like manager Paul Molitor has issued a vote of confidence to his 9th inning arm. I'd hope the leash isn't too much longer, as the Twins can't continue to cough up leads and are already scarping for every W tally they can get. At some point, it might make sense to give Trevor May a shot, or even call on one of either J.T. Chargois or Nick Burdi to assume the role. The latter two are more drastic measures, while the former is worth a try.

 

Regardless of what eventually takes place, the path and process Kevin Jepsen is currently travelling down and executing upon can't continue to happen.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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There are two ways to look at this, and a comment. One is that playoff contenders do not have pitchers like Jepsen as a closer. So if your team makes pronouncements about having a legitimate chance to contend, his presence negates that contention. If you are in rebuild mode, a Chargois/Burdi type should already be on a flight to Mpls. As far as Molly's options, his current choices would have to be May or Tonkin. May has a lack of relief experience, and Tonkin seems to get frustrated. That said, I would take a shot at Tonkin and see if he can get his emotions in check. I do like his arm. As to his endorsement of Jepsen, what else can he say?

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There are two ways to look at this, and a comment. One is that playoff contenders do not have pitchers like Jepsen as a closer. So if your team makes pronouncements about having a legitimate chance to contend, his presence negates that contention. If you are in rebuild mode, a Chargois/Burdi type should already be on a flight to Mpls. As far as Molly's options, his current choices would have to be May or Tonkin. May has a lack of relief experience, and Tonkin seems to get frustrated. That said, I would take a shot at Tonkin and see if he can get his emotions in check. I do like his arm. As to his endorsement of Jepsen, what else can he say?

 

I'm bullish on Tonkin, but I'd be closer to DFA'ing him for the next arm than making him the closer. I'd love to see Burdi/Chargois up sooner rather than later, but they can't immediately take over the closer role.

 

Jepsen is essentially a 7th inning guy. Working as Perkins' setup man was a fine gig, but Glen put the Twins in a bind and got them to this point.

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I agree that Jepsen is a 7th inning guy and a pretty average one at that. That's all he ever really was with the Angels and Rays until his career year last year.  It may be heresy to say this but Molitor is part the problem. He sees to have trouble taking risks with young pitchers out of the pen. It's more likely that he would use Chargois in low leverage circumstances until "he gets his feet wet" rather than giving him a chance to close even if we called him up. In a sense, we got lucky with injuries so the young starters will get a chance (same with Arcia). It may require something similar before someone else gets a chance to try the closer role.

 

You lost me after wanting Chargois to come up and close. I think he can help this pen, but putting him immediately in that role I think might be a bit much.

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If the Twins keep playing as they are, losing a series instead of winning, say...then they have to look closely at the longterm needs of any of the vets, be it Fien or Jepsen or even Abad. If you are playing sub-.500 ball, you really DON'T need a named closer, as you can go days without having a save situation, which does nothing for the closer who MIGHT have to pitch back-to-back-to-back if you do have a winning situation.

 

It does give you an opportunity to try multiple YOUNG arms out in the role. Not ALL the young arms, but the ones with the best chance of success.

 

Now the question comes is that someone currently on the roster like May, who SHOULD be a fixture in the rotation more or less (or is he the next Rick Aguilera). Do you advance Chargolis and let him get his feet wet in major league ball, skipping AAA. Are names like Dean and Graham really in the future mix?

 

Of course, the Twins have two weeks to run Meyer, Berrios and Duffey thru the mill...two weeks that can temper decisions made down the road.

 

Of course, a couple of the arms you MIGHT like to see in the bullpen are still toughing it out in AA (Reed, Burdi) and even A+ (Bard). 

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They cant put May there, because he is basically the entire bullpen and needed available when the **** is going down not just the 9th.  I think it will be Chargois or Meyer by the end of the year but its going to get interesting before they hand one of them the job.

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I was glad to hear that despite Jepsens travails, Molly has assured him that the job is his. Now if he was the long time successful closer struggling, yes, a vote of confidence would be normally in order. But he isn't. He's a fill in. And while no one knows how May, or Tonkin would do in the role, two things are apparent. One, they couldn't be worse, and two, it would be a great time to find out!

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